Draft Strategy Thoughts

xwalker

xwalker

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  • BPA
    • I would always have a BPA strategy with a lean to position value and need.
    • i.e. Use need and position value to differential player on the same prospect tier.
  • Position Value
    • I always would always look for the premium positions in the 1st round.
    • The Franchise Tag value shows which positions the NFL values the most.
    • Not including QB: WRs, LTs, CBs and Pass Rushers including interior players,
    • Personally, I also consider OC as a top tier position because of limited availability.
  • Problems with 'Pure' BPA strategy without position value considerations.
    • With a pure BPA approach, an OG might be the BPA in all rounds.
    • Starting at the top, the best OG often gets drafted after the top 5 OTs.
    • Some team ends up deciding between the top OG or the 6th best OT.
    • The same concept continues after the 1st round.
    • A team could end up drafting an OG in the 2nd every year with a pure BPA approach.
  • Draft vs Free Agency
    • OG
    • I would prefer to sign OG-only type players in free agency.
      • An OG costs much less than the equivalent talent WR, etc..
    • If a draft prospect at OG is also a legit option at OC, then it's a different scenario.
    • TE
    • I would look for 1 in free agency.
      • Contracts are better value than WR contracts, etc..
    • If a complete TE is available in the draft, then lack of supply overrides position value.
  • Safe Player vs High Risk/Reward Player
    • Zack Martin does not play a premium position, however...
      • He was the closest thing to a guaranteed All-Pro as it gets.
    • Every year there are a few players that have a 'high floor' even in the mid-rounds.
      • i.e. Seem almost certain to become at least an average starter.
      • OG Trai Turner 2014 Draft
        • Started out in draft media rankings as a late round pick.
        • I would have bet $10K that he would become a starter by year 2.
        • The Cowboys tried to trade into the 3rd to draft him.
      • Jason Witten
        • I have have bet more than $10K that he would become a starter.
        • I wanted to trade back into the late 1st to draft him.
        • I lost in when Parcells drafted a nobody player in the 2nd & bypassed Witten.
        • Parcells lucked into Witten in the 3rd.
  • When drafting for need goes wrong.
    • If the Cowboys drafted a CB over Parsons.
    • If a team drafts an All Pro, then it does not matter what needs that team had at the time.
    • Parsons would have been the right pick regardless of need.
    • Even if the Cowboys already had Bobby Wagner, Darius Leonard and Fred Warner.
  • When over-focusing on position value goes wrong.
    • Micah Parsons was considered an off-ball LB by the draft media.
    • How did the draft media overlook his pass rush ability?
    • Even without using him as a pass rusher, he has transcendent ability as pure LB.
    • Repeat: If a team drafts an All Pro it doesn't matter what position he plays.
 
I would like to address a couple of positions that are neglected year after year. Use a premium pick on FS and 1 tech and forget about the positions for years.

We seem to use premium picks at 3 tech every year with similar results.
 
Personally, the draft is an upgrade game.
If you can't evaluate talent, you fail at this game. And it starts with evaluating your current team, which is where I think most teams fail.

Talent, injury history, attitude/heart, intelligence, work ethic, position, size, speed, ceiling and floor should all go into getting a number for that player.

How much that number increases the number of the player already there should be the final consideration.

If you have a guard that ranks a 3 and one you can draft that ranks a 90, and your tackle you rate a 85 and one you could draft that ranks a 93.......the guard would still be the better player for the team at that time.

With that said, if done correctly, it should keep you always in upgrade mode, upgrading with BPA to the needs of the team.
 
The Cowboy Front Office has an excellent track record in rd 1, outside of a few poor decisions, they have gotten pro bowl type of talent regardless of the position. Where they have struggled the most is within the middle rounds, especially in rd 2, where they have taken chances on either injured or bad character players.

I really don't take what position they take at 24, as long as they take the best player.
 
xwalker said:
  • BPA
    • I would always have a BPA strategy with a lean to position value and need.
    • i.e. Use need and position value to differential player on the same prospect tier.
  • Position Value
    • I always would always look for the premium positions in the 1st round.
    • The Franchise Tag value shows which positions the NFL values the most.
    • Not including QB: WRs, LTs, CBs and Pass Rushers including interior players,
    • Personally, I also consider OC as a top tier position because of limited availability.
  • Problems with 'Pure' BPA strategy without position value considerations.
    • With a pure BPA approach, an OG might be the BPA in all rounds.
    • Starting at the top, the best OG often gets drafted after the top 5 OTs.
    • Some team ends up deciding between the top OG or the 6th best OT.
    • The same concept continues after the 1st round.
    • A team could end up drafting an OG in the 2nd every year with a pure BPA approach.
  • Draft vs Free Agency
    • OG
    • I would prefer to sign OG-only type players in free agency.
      • An OG costs much less than the equivalent talent WR, etc..
    • If a draft prospect at OG is also a legit option at OC, then it's a different scenario.
    • TE
    • I would look for 1 in free agency.
      • Contracts are better value than WR contracts, etc..
    • If a complete TE is available in the draft, then lack of supply overrides position value.
  • Safe Player vs High Risk/Reward Player
    • Zack Martin does not play a premium position, however...
      • He was the closest thing to a guaranteed All-Pro as it gets.
    • Every year there are a few players that have a 'high floor' even in the mid-rounds.
      • i.e. Seem almost certain to become at least an average starter.
      • OG Trai Turner 2014 Draft
        • Started out in draft media rankings as a late round pick.
        • I would have bet $10K that he would become a starter by year 2.
        • The Cowboys tried to trade into the 3rd to draft him.
      • Jason Witten
        • I have have bet more than $10K that he would become a starter.
        • I wanted to trade back into the late 1st to draft him.
        • I lost in when Parcells drafted a nobody player in the 2nd & bypassed Witten.
        • Parcells lucked into Witten in the 3rd.
  • When drafting for need goes wrong.
    • If the Cowboys drafted a CB over Parsons.
    • If a team drafts an All Pro, then it does not matter what needs that team had at the time.
    • Parsons would have been the right pick regardless of need.
    • Even if the Cowboys already had Bobby Wagner, Darius Leonard and Fred Warner.
  • When over-focusing on position value goes wrong.
    • Micah Parsons was considered an off-ball LB by the draft media.
    • How did the draft media overlook his pass rush ability?
    • Even without using him as a pass rusher, he has transcendent ability as pure LB.
    • Repeat: If a team drafts an All Pro it doesn't matter what position he plays.
Click to expand...
Its team building. You focus on need, you may end up over drafting players at the position and getting poor pro's with those picks. And now you still have those same needs

Pure BPA, you may end up overstacked at a position and have top players spending time on the sidelines. We passed on Cook in 2017, and he was the only player left the Cowboys had a 1st round grade on. You cant justify taking him when you just drafted Elliott in the top 5. Also position value.

With position value in mind, those franchise numbers are high for a reason. Those are the position that have teams feel have the biggest effect on winning and losing. Its hard to win in the NFL without strong pass rushers, CB's, a good LT, and quality WR's. WR is an interesting case because its high in value (not quite sure where it is now, but it was tied with DE for tag value as late as two years ago), but its much easier to pull top talent from day that LT and DE.

With this draft, three potential picks at OL offer positional flexibility. Penning and Green at OG/RT and Johnson at OG/OC. I also think this year you can get a better edge rusher at 24 than most years. Edge rushers after 20 are boom or bust and dont have a great success rate as far as first round picks. This year it wouldnt shock me if 3 to 4 10 sack guys come out of picks between 20-40.
 
Great post. I think the FO has done a pretty good job of drafting the last few years, we’re just terrible in FA.

Ideally you plug the holes in FA then draft BPA considering what you’ve referenced above. Our current status in FA is case and point of why this team can’t get over the hump.
 
xwalker said:
  • BPA
    • I would always have a BPA strategy with a lean to position value and need.
    • i.e. Use need and position value to differential player on the same prospect tier.
  • Position Value
    • I always would always look for the premium positions in the 1st round.
    • The Franchise Tag value shows which positions the NFL values the most.
    • Not including QB: WRs, LTs, CBs and Pass Rushers including interior players,
    • Personally, I also consider OC as a top tier position because of limited availability.
  • Problems with 'Pure' BPA strategy without position value considerations.
    • With a pure BPA approach, an OG might be the BPA in all rounds.
    • Starting at the top, the best OG often gets drafted after the top 5 OTs.
    • Some team ends up deciding between the top OG or the 6th best OT.
    • The same concept continues after the 1st round.
    • A team could end up drafting an OG in the 2nd every year with a pure BPA approach.
  • Draft vs Free Agency
    • OG
    • I would prefer to sign OG-only type players in free agency.
      • An OG costs much less than the equivalent talent WR, etc..
    • If a draft prospect at OG is also a legit option at OC, then it's a different scenario.
    • TE
    • I would look for 1 in free agency.
      • Contracts are better value than WR contracts, etc..
    • If a complete TE is available in the draft, then lack of supply overrides position value.
  • Safe Player vs High Risk/Reward Player
    • Zack Martin does not play a premium position, however...
      • He was the closest thing to a guaranteed All-Pro as it gets.
    • Every year there are a few players that have a 'high floor' even in the mid-rounds.
      • i.e. Seem almost certain to become at least an average starter.
      • OG Trai Turner 2014 Draft
        • Started out in draft media rankings as a late round pick.
        • I would have bet $10K that he would become a starter by year 2.
        • The Cowboys tried to trade into the 3rd to draft him.
      • Jason Witten
        • I have have bet more than $10K that he would become a starter.
        • I wanted to trade back into the late 1st to draft him.
        • I lost in when Parcells drafted a nobody player in the 2nd & bypassed Witten.
        • Parcells lucked into Witten in the 3rd.
  • When drafting for need goes wrong.
    • If the Cowboys drafted a CB over Parsons.
    • If a team drafts an All Pro, then it does not matter what needs that team had at the time.
    • Parsons would have been the right pick regardless of need.
    • Even if the Cowboys already had Bobby Wagner, Darius Leonard and Fred Warner.
  • When over-focusing on position value goes wrong.
    • Micah Parsons was considered an off-ball LB by the draft media.
    • How did the draft media overlook his pass rush ability?
    • Even without using him as a pass rusher, he has transcendent ability as pure LB.
    • Repeat: If a team drafts an All Pro it doesn't matter what position he plays.
Click to expand...
I would just like to “weigh in” on the wide receiver position. There are always 2 or 3 elite WR prospects in the draft that merit a selection in the first round. But there are SO many good acceptable substitutes throughout the draft (much like RB) that you can get a really good one anywhere in the draft. (Especially rounds 2-5).

I think you will start to see a devaluation of WRs in the draft and free agency much like RB position in the years to come.
 
xwalker said:
  • BPA
    • I would always have a BPA strategy with a lean to position value and need.
    • i.e. Use need and position value to differential player on the same prospect tier.
  • Position Value
    • I always would always look for the premium positions in the 1st round.
    • The Franchise Tag value shows which positions the NFL values the most.
    • Not including QB: WRs, LTs, CBs and Pass Rushers including interior players,
    • Personally, I also consider OC as a top tier position because of limited availability.
  • Problems with 'Pure' BPA strategy without position value considerations.
    • With a pure BPA approach, an OG might be the BPA in all rounds.
    • Starting at the top, the best OG often gets drafted after the top 5 OTs.
    • Some team ends up deciding between the top OG or the 6th best OT.
    • The same concept continues after the 1st round.
    • A team could end up drafting an OG in the 2nd every year with a pure BPA approach.
  • Draft vs Free Agency
    • OG
    • I would prefer to sign OG-only type players in free agency.
      • An OG costs much less than the equivalent talent WR, etc..
    • If a draft prospect at OG is also a legit option at OC, then it's a different scenario.
    • TE
    • I would look for 1 in free agency.
      • Contracts are better value than WR contracts, etc..
    • If a complete TE is available in the draft, then lack of supply overrides position value.
  • Safe Player vs High Risk/Reward Player
    • Zack Martin does not play a premium position, however...
      • He was the closest thing to a guaranteed All-Pro as it gets.
    • Every year there are a few players that have a 'high floor' even in the mid-rounds.
      • i.e. Seem almost certain to become at least an average starter.
      • OG Trai Turner 2014 Draft
        • Started out in draft media rankings as a late round pick.
        • I would have bet $10K that he would become a starter by year 2.
        • The Cowboys tried to trade into the 3rd to draft him.
      • Jason Witten
        • I have have bet more than $10K that he would become a starter.
        • I wanted to trade back into the late 1st to draft him.
        • I lost in when Parcells drafted a nobody player in the 2nd & bypassed Witten.
        • Parcells lucked into Witten in the 3rd.
  • When drafting for need goes wrong.
    • If the Cowboys drafted a CB over Parsons.
    • If a team drafts an All Pro, then it does not matter what needs that team had at the time.
    • Parsons would have been the right pick regardless of need.
    • Even if the Cowboys already had Bobby Wagner, Darius Leonard and Fred Warner.
  • When over-focusing on position value goes wrong.
    • Micah Parsons was considered an off-ball LB by the draft media.
    • How did the draft media overlook his pass rush ability?
    • Even without using him as a pass rusher, he has transcendent ability as pure LB.
    • Repeat: If a team drafts an All Pro it doesn't matter what position he plays.
Click to expand...
I always enjoy your posts, and usually think along the same lines as you do. I am more of a BPA fan. Passing on Dalvin Cook because you have Elliott is a poor call.

I realize that you can’t draft 7 running backs but if it lines up that way, trade out of the pick. Just don’t reach.

I would also say that the Cowboys have reached at premium positions with very little success. Taco was an obvious reach. E. Ekuban was a reach. Shante Carver was a reach. Gregory was a reach too, based on his “risk factors”. Pretty much every time the Cowboys reach for need they whiff and miss.

They forced the pick last year on a CB and Creed Humphrey was there for the taking. If we had added Humphrey to this line last year, how much better would it have been?

I’m hoping that Joseph justifies the second round pick, but the early indications indicate that Humphrey would have been the smarter choice.

What if we had passed on Martin for a middling DE? Wouldn’t that have sucked?
 
xwalker said:
  • BPA
    • I would always have a BPA strategy with a lean to position value and need.
    • i.e. Use need and position value to differential player on the same prospect tier.
  • Position Value
    • I always would always look for the premium positions in the 1st round.
    • The Franchise Tag value shows which positions the NFL values the most.
    • Not including QB: WRs, LTs, CBs and Pass Rushers including interior players,
    • Personally, I also consider OC as a top tier position because of limited availability.
  • Problems with 'Pure' BPA strategy without position value considerations.
    • With a pure BPA approach, an OG might be the BPA in all rounds.
    • Starting at the top, the best OG often gets drafted after the top 5 OTs.
    • Some team ends up deciding between the top OG or the 6th best OT.
    • The same concept continues after the 1st round.
    • A team could end up drafting an OG in the 2nd every year with a pure BPA approach.
  • Draft vs Free Agency
    • OG
    • I would prefer to sign OG-only type players in free agency.
      • An OG costs much less than the equivalent talent WR, etc..
    • If a draft prospect at OG is also a legit option at OC, then it's a different scenario.
    • TE
    • I would look for 1 in free agency.
      • Contracts are better value than WR contracts, etc..
    • If a complete TE is available in the draft, then lack of supply overrides position value.
  • Safe Player vs High Risk/Reward Player
    • Zack Martin does not play a premium position, however...
      • He was the closest thing to a guaranteed All-Pro as it gets.
    • Every year there are a few players that have a 'high floor' even in the mid-rounds.
      • i.e. Seem almost certain to become at least an average starter.
      • OG Trai Turner 2014 Draft
        • Started out in draft media rankings as a late round pick.
        • I would have bet $10K that he would become a starter by year 2.
        • The Cowboys tried to trade into the 3rd to draft him.
      • Jason Witten
        • I have have bet more than $10K that he would become a starter.
        • I wanted to trade back into the late 1st to draft him.
        • I lost in when Parcells drafted a nobody player in the 2nd & bypassed Witten.
        • Parcells lucked into Witten in the 3rd.
  • When drafting for need goes wrong.
    • If the Cowboys drafted a CB over Parsons.
    • If a team drafts an All Pro, then it does not matter what needs that team had at the time.
    • Parsons would have been the right pick regardless of need.
    • Even if the Cowboys already had Bobby Wagner, Darius Leonard and Fred Warner.
  • When over-focusing on position value goes wrong.
    • Micah Parsons was considered an off-ball LB by the draft media.
    • How did the draft media overlook his pass rush ability?
    • Even without using him as a pass rusher, he has transcendent ability as pure LB.
    • Repeat: If a team drafts an All Pro it doesn't matter what position he plays.
Click to expand...

I've always been BPA but I think we have 2 problems on our team that have to be addressed urgently. The first is the rebuilding of our O-Line and the second is the continuing evaluation of Dak. If we can sort the first out it will help with the second. Ideally I would like to see the first 3 picks used on a WR and OL. I would like to see our first DEF pick to be a true nose tackle, in the mid-rounds.
 
Cowboyny said:
The Cowboy Front Office has an excellent track record in rd 1, outside of a few poor decisions, they have gotten pro bowl type of talent regardless of the position. Where they have struggled the most is within the middle rounds, especially in rd 2, where they have taken chances on either injured or bad character players.

I really don't take what position they take at 24, as long as they take the best player.
Click to expand...
I don't know about that 1st round "excellent" assessment.

Don't forget these 1st round picks who didn't live up to their 1st round draft or trade status:

Kelvin Pritchett
Shante Carver
David LaFleur
Ebenezer Ekuban
Roy Williams (S)
Roy Williams (WR)
BARBIE Carpenter
Felix Jones
Mike Jenkins
Mo ClaiBURNED
TACO Charlton
Leighton Vander-Esch
 
America's Cowboy said:
I don't know about that 1st round "excellent" assessment.

Don't forget these 1st round picks who didn't live up to their 1st round draft or trade status:

Kelvin Pritchett
Shante Carver
David LaFleur
Ebenezer Ekuban
Roy Williams (S)
Roy Williams (WR)
BARBIE Carpenter
Felix Jones
Mike Jenkins
Mo ClaiBURNED
TACO Charlton
Leighton Vander-Esch
Click to expand...
Since McClay has been in charged, one of the best throughout my he league in rd is, teams never have perfect records
 
Cowboyny said:
Since McClay has been in charged, one of the best throughout my he league in rd is, teams never have perfect records
Click to expand...

Agreed...bigger issue is how we suck at patching the holes in FA.

Obviously we swung and missed by a mile at DE...but we've got a boatload of cash right now and JC Tretter, one of the best Cs in football, is waiting to be signed. I know LG is a bigger need but he'd certainly help the cause and help Dak.
 
cnuball21 said:
Agreed...bigger issue is how we suck at patching the holes in FA.

Obviously we swung and missed by a mile at DE...but we've got a boatload of cash right now and JC Tretter, one of the best Cs in football, is waiting to be signed. I know LG is a bigger need but he'd certainly help the cause and help Dak.
Click to expand...
I believe the final phase of fa prior to the draft will in focused on the trenches. Watkins/Urban are fa's, you would think a veteran Swing Tackle is signed, along with an interior bridge starter so they aren't forced to reach to fill a need.
 
America's Cowboy said:
I don't know about that 1st round "excellent" assessment.

Don't forget these 1st round picks who didn't live up to their 1st round draft or trade status:

Kelvin Pritchett
Shante Carver
David LaFleur
Ebenezer Ekuban
Roy Williams (S)
Roy Williams (WR)
BARBIE Carpenter
Felix Jones
Mike Jenkins
Mo ClaiBURNED
TACO Charlton
Leighton Vander-Esch
Click to expand...
Kelvin Pritchett never played for the Cowboys. He was drafted and traded to I think the Lions for their pick. But I get your point. But everybody misses on first round picks.
 
Majic said:
I've always been BPA but I think we have 2 problems on our team that have to be addressed urgently. The first is the rebuilding of our O-Line and the second is the continuing evaluation of Dak. If we can sort the first out it will help with the second. Ideally I would like to see the first 3 picks used on a WR and OL. I would like to see our first DEF pick to be a true nose tackle, in the mid-rounds.
Click to expand...

The best way to help Dak is to solve the running game issues.
- They really need a TE that can both block and catch.

I don't love drafting Guards or run stopping DTs in the 1st because those are easier to obtain in free agency than pass rushers, WRs, etc..
- There are some Guards remaining in free agency unless they've been signed within the past few days (Trai Turner, etc.)

Quinn must believe that Bohanna has upside because they moved Hamilton to the practice squad and he was signed by another team.
- Hamilton was ahead of Bohanna in 2021 as a run stopper.
- Hamilton was actually quite good in that role.

As you said, mid-rounds for run a stopping DT.
- It would be insane to draft a run stopper in the 1st (i.e. Jordan Davis).
- Many at CZ complain about the lack of value in drafting a RB early (Zeke) but then want to draft a DT like Davis which is also not a good value pick.
- A few DTs like Vita Vea can play 3 downs at well over 330 pounds, but that's rare.
- A couple of years ago the Saints sign DT Malcom Brown for 3-years, 15M. The Saints defense was a brick wall against the run that year.
 
xwalker said:
The best way to help Dak is to solve the running game issues.
- They really need a TE that can both block and catch.

I don't love drafting Guards or run stopping DTs in the 1st because those are easier to obtain in free agency than pass rushers, WRs, etc..
- There are some Guards remaining in free agency unless they've been signed within the past few days (Trai Turner, etc.)

Quinn must believe that Bohanna has upside because they moved Hamilton to the practice squad and he was signed by another team.
- Hamilton was ahead of Bohanna in 2021 as a run stopper.
- Hamilton was actually quite good in that role.

As you said, mid-rounds for run a stopping DT.
- It would be insane to draft a run stopper in the 1st (i.e. Jordan Davis).
- Many at CZ complain about the lack of value in drafting a RB early (Zeke) but then want to draft a DT like Davis which is also not a good value pick.
- A few DTs like Vita Vea can play 3 downs at well over 330 pounds, but that's rare.
- A couple of years ago the Saints sign DT Malcom Brown for 3-years, 15M. The Saints defense was a brick wall against the run that year.
Click to expand...
It's not insane at all if the DT is disruptive and collapses the pocket. That sort of player cannot be underrated. The Bengals do not make the super bowl w/o Reader.
 
Verdict said:
I always enjoy your posts, and usually think along the same lines as you do. I am more of a BPA fan. Passing on Dalvin Cook because you have Elliott is a poor call.

I realize that you can’t draft 7 running backs but if it lines up that way, trade out of the pick. Just don’t reach.

I would also say that the Cowboys have reached at premium positions with very little success. Taco was an obvious reach. E. Ekuban was a reach. Shante Carver was a reach. Gregory was a reach too, based on his “risk factors”. Pretty much every time the Cowboys reach for need they whiff and miss.

They forced the pick last year on a CB and Creed Humphrey was there for the taking. If we had added Humphrey to this line last year, how much better would it have been?

I’m hoping that Joseph justifies the second round pick, but the early indications indicate that Humphrey would have been the smarter choice.

What if we had passed on Martin for a middling DE? Wouldn’t that have sucked?
Click to expand...
Everyone claims Taco was a reach because he didn't work out. He was not a reach. He was slated to go early 20s. I didn't like him because he'd only played at a high level for 1 year.

Gregory was considered top 10. Taking him in the 2nd wasn't a reach. It was a mistake due to obvious personality issues, but not a reach.

Joseph was a reach!!!! However, he could be considered BPA.
 
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