CFZ Roster Building: Draft and Develop vs the modern cap era method

[PA Cowboy Fan]

What if they win the division again and win in the playoffs this year?

What happens if I win the lottery?

 

[KingintheNorth]

If anything McCarthy is a top 15 coach.

He is not.

His salary and performances against winning teams should tell you that.

McCarthy's biggest issue is that he has no belief system. He doesn't have a football philosophy that he subscribes to and can adjust/adapt that as needed. He just kind of throws things around, constantly shifting ideas and beliefs. He's also a finger pointer and a bit of a fraud. He's exactly the kind of Head Coach Jerry covets; the illusion of being a big name but no real backbone or fortitude to insist on running the football team the way he sees fit.

 

[75boyz]

He is not.

His salary and performances against winning teams should tell you that.

McCarthy's biggest issue is that he has no belief system. He doesn't have a football philosophy that he subscribes to and can adjust/adapt that as needed. He just kind of throws things around, constantly shifting ideas and beliefs. He's also a finger pointer and a bit of a fraud. He's exactly the kind of Head Coach Jerry covets; the illusion of being a big name but no real backbone or fortitude to insist on running the football team the way he sees fit.

THIS.
The whole 1 GB championship gig appears more and more like a fluke as each year passes and you observe McFraud's performance.

 

[Kolemmitt]

The best strategy to win championships, or at least get really close is to have an elite QB, and an elite powerful coach.
Brady-Bill, Mahomes-Andy, those duos have dominated the league for the last couple of decades.

Unfortunately, Jerry does not like working with strong coaches, and getting a QB like Mahomes or Brady is a total 1 in 1000 chance, so this method will likely not work for us.

The next thing to do is get a good coach, a good QB, and then be willing to "Go For It" with smart trades and FA moves, along with drafting well, even if it means you have to pay the cap price for a year or two . The Rams made it work and the Eagles made it work, and both almost made it work another time.

I know the anti-Dak and anti--Mike crowd won't buy it, but we actually do have good, not great, but a good QB, and a good coach. We also draft well - last year not withstanding- but what we don't have is a front office that is willing to "Go For It"

I have no doubt if we had the Eagles, 49ers, or Rams FO they would have learned from last year. We would have signed a stud NT, an upgrade at MLB, resigned Smith, then we would draft an upgrade at RB, and center and we would be ready to compete. But, Jones boys won't do it.
Either they are too dumb or too greedy to do it

 

[75boyz]

I agree with this. I think Aaron Rodgers bailed him out quite a few times. What I don’t understand, and this was the main point of my post, is how does a coach do well in the regular season then forget how to coach in the playoffs? Do the Xs and Os change? No. I think coaches can choke the same way players can. So I feel the big problem in Dallas is we overvalue our own talent and we have chokers in players and coaches. Because I can’t make any sense out of playing and coaching well in the regular season then bombing in the post season. It doesn’t make sense unless we as an organization just choke in the playoffs.

Great question about why do some good regular season coaches totally forget how to coach in the playoffs. I dont have an answer there but I'll agree with ya on the riding Rodgers coat tails part too about McFraud.

A statistical check of all his GB playoff defenses besides their trophy year would show how pathetic GB playoff defenses were for his whole time coaching there.

I totally think McFraud underachieved in his coaching role at GB by ONLY winning ONE trophy with a prime Rodgers all those years.

A coaching fail in my eyes.

 

[sbark]

Thank you Greggo.

Agree fully
You make people think , question, analysis
A lost art nowdays

 

[sbark]

Great question about why do some good regular season coaches totally forget how to coach in the playoffs. I dont have an answer there but I'll agree with ya on the riding Rodgers coat tails part too about McFraud.

A statistical check of all his GB playoff defenses besides their trophy year would show how pathetic GB playoff defenses were for his whole time coaching there.

I totally think McFraud underachieved in his coaching role at GB by ONLY winning ONE trophy with a prime Rodgers all those years.

A coaching fail in my eyes.

Did he have complete control of draft, FA moves in GB?
Asking, dont know
But is a big factor in coach success

 

[75boyz]

Did he have complete control of draft, FA moves in GB?
Asking, dont know
But is a big factor in coach success

I think him and GM, Ted Thompson were in agreement on player selection.

 

[Bullflop]

Just when I felt sure Jerry and Stephen couldn't be more inept in their management, they've proven they could. Incredible!

 

[CATCH17]

He is not.

His salary and performances against winning teams should tell you that.

McCarthy's biggest issue is that he has no belief system. He doesn't have a football philosophy that he subscribes to and can adjust/adapt that as needed. He just kind of throws things around, constantly shifting ideas and beliefs. He's also a finger pointer and a bit of a fraud. He's exactly the kind of Head Coach Jerry covets; the illusion of being a big name but no real backbone or fortitude to insist on running the football team the way he sees fit.

We pay a lot of money to a QB that needs to be more than the system he plays in.

When Dak’s front running and having to run Mike’s system as it was designed he’s phenomenal.

When Dak’s in a situation where he has to fling the ball around and play outside the system the wheels come off quick.

 

[KingintheNorth]

When Dak’s front running and having to run Mike’s system as it was designed he’s phenomenal.

I think Dak is best when he's off-schedule and trying to make plays. That doesn’t mean he's excused from making the occasional what-the-heck decision throwing into double coverage.

The stats show he also does better when the Cowboys can help him out with a 100-yeard rusher (balanced offense seems to be a no-brainer). McCarthy seems to abandon the run every chance he gets. That's coaching or lack thereof.

Dak has had the likes of Jason Garrett, Scott Linehan, Kellen Moore, and Mike McCarthy designing and calling offensive plays for him.

Again, I am not excusing Dak's poor play in crucial moments. I am just saying he's never had elite offensive coaching or the kind of head coach who will insist he improves on his deficiencies.

 

[Verdict]

Dak has earned his criticism for sure. But we haven’t lost every one of the 5 playoff games the team has lost with Dak at QB all because of Dak. This team has not had a good enough defense to go deep in the playoffs in a long time. That 2022 team might have won that SF playoff game with Dak playing better. Maybe. But Dak hasn’t personally blown every playoff game we’ve lost.

Honestly, Mahomes couldn’t have beaten the packers last January with that Cowboys defense we ran out there. In fact, without that great defense KC had last year, the chiefs don’t win that SB last year. How about Tom Brady throwing 3 INTs in the NFC championship game in 2020 with Tampa? The Bucs won anyway because the defense carried them. (I’m not comparing Dak to those guys, just saying sometimes even the greats need help)

Dak has earned his share of criticism. Absolutely. But pinning all the Cowboys playoff woes on Dak Prescott is way over-simplified.

In fairness, that game looks completely different if Dak doesn’t lay an egg. It is very demoralizing for a defense to watch your QB piss a game away like he did.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

I think Dak is best when he's off-schedule and trying to make plays. That doesn’t mean he's excused from making the occasional what-the-heck decision throwing into double coverage.

The stats show he also does better when the Cowboys can help him out with a 100-yeard rusher (balanced offense seems to be a no-brainer). McCarthy seems to abandon the run every chance he gets. That's coaching or lack thereof.

Dak has had the likes of Jason Garrett, Scott Linehan, Kellen Moore, and Mike McCarthy designing and calling offensive plays for him.

Again, I am not excusing Dak's poor play in crucial moments. I am just saying he's never had elite offensive coaching or the kind of head coach who will insist he improves on his deficiencies.

Other than Bill Parcells, the Cowboys haven't had elite coaches this century. Jerry just doesn't believe in them.

 

[Verdict]

People that think all we have to do is replace Dak and we'll end all our woes are going to be in for a big surprise. I'm done with Dak. I think his problem is mental now. But the real problem is this organization. They do not put together a team that is capable of winning a title. And the culture here is toxic. It's been going on before Dak and it will continue after Dak. I made the same mistake with Romo. I was ready to move on with Dak. I hoped he was strong enough to overcome this organization but he wasn't. I don't know if there is one that can overcome it. I doubt there is. The real problem is Jerry and Stephen.

Dak’s problem has always been partly mental. In my opinion Dak is severely handicapped due to his mental ability to process information. If Dak can see it and make the right read he is pretty solid. If he can’t then you can chalk that game up as a loss before it is played.

 

[EPL0c0]

Jerry has hired 6 head coaches since our last divisional playoff win in 1995. Either he isn’t good at hiring HCs or Jerry just can’t get it done without a lot of help from a strong HC like Jimmy. The FO has put talent on the field. But it has been incapable of stringing multiple playoff wins together in 28 seasons.

Is it just the head coach?

how many of those HCs have been allowed to pick/hire their own staff?

 

[fivetwos]

Other than Bill Parcells, the Cowboys haven't had elite coaches this century. Jerry just doesn't believe in them.

I don’t know if he doesnt believe in them as much as he doesn’t want it to seem that success had anything to do with anyone other than him.

He has a Milli Vanilli GM and everyone knows it, yet he gets away with it. The whole thing is based on a sham from the very top.

 

[Big_D]

There is zero doubt in my mind that even if had drafted the same exact playerswe have for 10 years but actually had a competent GM who was better at FA and figuring out coaching hires, we’d have at least been in a few conference champ games and maybe SBs.

For all the mistakes we made in the draft, our failures are tied to dumb coaching hires and total cheapness in FA.

At least someone in that span who knows better than to overpay every single one of their own players. Thats the #1 reason they haven’t won anything, they don’t utilize FA and that this offseason is a complete disaster. Because they never know when to move on.

 

[plymkr]

Other than Bill Parcells, the Cowboys haven't had elite coaches this century. Jerry just doesn't believe in them.

Jerry is threatened by elite coaches. I think the only person Jerry believes in is himself.

 

[Rockport]

Most Cowboys fans could probably agree on one thing these days: This has not been a great off-season so far. Yes, we still have the draft and some minor FA moves ahead, but the early report card grade on the Cowboys would have to be an F if we’re being honest. If we’re generous we could possibly say it’s an “I” for incomplete.

Although none of us know for sure, it appears the front office is once again using the roster building philosophy known as “Draft and Develop”. This is a model we started using in the Garrett era. It centers on teams being stingy in FA and put almost all of their emphasis on the draft, expecting the players drafted in the first 3 rounds to have immediate impact and later to develop the other players for depth and STs. It’s not a completely crazy model.

But the best NFL GMs would consider the “Draft and Develop” model only partially effective and a bit outdated. The more modern cap era approach is to build a better roster through 3 ways:

1. Acquire a few impactful starters in FA and/or in a trade. Target guys that will have immediate impact and not guys that are over the hill. A one or two year deal is ideal because this is about winning now- this year.
2. A strong draft with at least 1-2 starters and at least 2 decent depth and STs players.
3. Quality cap management. Making sure the long term guys you have committed to have good amount of flexibility in the terms of the contract. (Unlike what the team did with Dak’s deal in 2021, where all the advantages were given to Dak) And also not being afraid to admit a mistake and moving on from a guy you made a mistake with.

So how have the Cowboys done using the “Draft and Develop“ model since 2011 when Garrett took over? (2011 was when the D&D model was started here- a total of 13 seasons)

• The Cowboys regular season record since 2011 is 123-88. That’s pretty good over 13 seasons. (that’s 58% winning%)
• BUT…The Cowboys have made the playoffs 6 times in the last 13 seasons. That’s 46% of the time we have made the playoffs.
• The Cowboys have only won 3 wild card playoff games in the six times they have made the playoffs since 2011.

That last bullet is the one that is the most frustrating. In essence, the “Draft and Develop” model we are seemingly following again this off-season has given 3 wild card wins in 13 years. The regular season wins are only as good as the playoff wins that follow.

The most frustrating thing to me in all this is watching this FO do the same roster building philosophy again that has yielded us 3 wild card wins in 13 years. Why would anyone expect the 14th time we do this strategy this year to somehow be the magic bullet?

Who are these GM’s who think draft and development outdated?

 

[DallasEast]

The most frustrating thing to me in all this is watching this FO do the same roster building philosophy again that has yielded us 3 wild card wins in 13 years. Why would anyone expect the 14th time we do this strategy this year to somehow be the magic bullet?

It is the eyes. Some find them... hypnotic...