Last decade of Cowboys Day 3 draft picks and how they did

[Bobhaze]

Three immediate big points:

• I liked the guys we drafted. Especially in rounds 1-3. Tyler Booker, Donovan Ezeiruaku and Shevon Revel are going to have impact almost immediately.
• I also believe we did not adequately address the biggest position needs we had going into the draft: DT, RB AND WR.
• Yes, on Day 3, we did draft speedy RB Jaydon Blue, DTs Jay Toia and Tommy Akingbesote and power back Phil Mafah. But the odds of those Day 3 guys becoming starters or even big contributors according to history are low.

So…What are the odds that a Day 3 Cowboys draft pick will ever become a primary starter for us? Here’s what history says:

• From 2015 through 2024 the Cowboys have used a total of 54 picks on Day 3 - 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th round prospects.
• So here are ALL the Day 3 picks the Cowboys have had the last decade by year (multi-year starters in bold)
  • 2015: LB Damien Wilson, DE Ryan Russell, LB Mark Nzechoa, OT Lawrence Gibson, TE Geoff Swaim.
  • 2016: DE Charles Tapper, QB Dak Prescott, CB Anthony Brown, S Kavin Frazier, RB Darius Jackson, TE Rico Gathers.
  • 2017: WR Ryan Switzer, S Xavier Woods, DT Joie Ivey, WR Noah Brown, DT Jordan Carrell
  • 2018: DE Dorance Armstrong, TE Dalton Schultz, QB Mike White, LB Chris Covington, WR Cedric Wilson, RB Bo Scarborough.
  • 2019: RB Tony Pollard, CB Michael Jackson, DE Joe Jackson, S Donovan Wilson, RB Mike Webber, DE Jalen Jenks.
  • 2020: CB Reggie Robinson III, C Tyler Biadz, DT Bradley Anae, QB Ben DiNucci.
  • 2021: LB Jabril Cox, OL Josh Ball, WR Simi Fehoko, DT Quinton Bohanna, S Israel Mukamu, OL Matt Farniok.
  • 2022: TE Jake Ferguson, OT Matt Waletzko, CB Daron Bland, LB Damone Clark, DT John Ridgeway, LB Devin Harper.
  • 2023: DL Vilami Fehoko, OL Asim Richards, CB Eric Scott, RB Deuce Vaughn, WR Jalen Brooks
  • 2024: CB Calen Carson, WR Ryan Flournoy, OL Nathan Thomas, DL Justin Thomas.
• Of those 54 Day 3 draft picks the last decade, 11 became starters. Which is about 20%,, slightly above league average of 17%.

So again, I like a lot of the guys we drafted. But we cannot depend on the Day 3 draftees to fix us at DT or RB. (We didn’t draft a WR) I believe the FO is still working on picking up a WR and another RB. They should.

 

[Pass2Run]

Philly was looking at Blue tho.

FO should also be looking at DTs.

 

[Havic]

I feel much better about RB now, even if we become overly reliant on the rookies. WR is the biggest need imo and there are 1 year stop gaps available even now to address it without giving up picks.

 

[Bobhaze]

Philly was looking at Blue tho.

FO should also be looking at DTs.

I like Blue and I’m sure a lot of teams were looking at him. He’s just not going to be “the answer” at RB. He’s super fast and we need that but even at Texas he only averaged 12 touches a game.

I’m glad we have Blue and I believe he has lots of juice to help this offense. He just isn’t enough to “fix” this offense.

 

[Jarntt]

11 in 9 years ignoring last year (too soon). I wonder how that stacks up to the league average

 

[Bobhaze]

I wonder how that stacks up to the league average

At 20%, we are slightly above league average of 17%. Not a ton of Day 3 guys in this league make it long term.

 

[Pass2Run]

At 20%, we are slightly above league average of 17%. Not a ton of Day 3 guys in this league make it long term.

What's the league average for RBs? Personally, I think Blue and Mafah are going to make it.

 

[rambo2]

I like Blue and I’m sure a lot of teams were looking at him. He’s just not going to be “the answer” at RB. He’s super fast and we need that but even at Texas he only averaged 12 touches a game.

I’m glad we have Blue and I believe he has lots of juice to help this offense. He just isn’t enough to “fix” this offense.

Blue is an outstanding receiver. He is going to contribute.

 

[rambo2]

What's the league average for RBs? Personally, I think Blue and Mafah are going to make it.

I do too.

 

[Jarntt]

Blue is an outstanding receiver. He is going to contribute.

Let's hope. But, I'm sure we could bump a lot of posts about how good Deuce was going to be from both 2023 and 2024. The point of the thread shows it happens less often than one would think and certainly less often than most fans here assume the days after the draft. I remember a lot of Scott and Carson and Flournoy hoopla as well from the last two years. Its fun and exciting to root for and part of being a fan of course so nothing wrong with it

 

[phildadon86]

At 20%, we are slightly above league average of 17%. Not a ton of Day 3 guys in this league make it long term.

Just because the cowboys made them starters doesn’t mean they actually are though. So that average is skewed. Other teams cut bait with players that can’t play, the cowboys love their own draft picks to their own detriment.

 

[mcmvp]

Philly was looking at Blue tho.

Maybe they were, maybe he wasn’t on their board at all….source?

 

[GMO415]

BULLETT!!!!
I see what Shotty and Jerry are trying to do and replicate what they had with the DeMarco Murray team of the past. Only thing missing is the RB, so how is this going to work out? None of these RBs come close.

 

[plasticman]

My concern is that some that shouldn't make the team will be there for lack of better alternatives tied to the salary cap.

There is also the suspicion that some players make the team because the executives in charge do not want to reveal the extent of their incompetence.

Great teams are never concerned about appearance because winning has a curious way of reducing criticism.

I look at the history of the team prior to the 21st century and what I see are risks that rarely pay off but when they do?

The 3rd day is about panning for gold. most are fruitless and then you hit that main vein:

Bob Hayes

Roger Staubach

Rayfield Wright

George Andre

Herbert Scott

Leon Lett

Three HOFers, all multiple Pro Bowlers

Also,

Jethro Push

Larry Cole

Ten year starters for the Dallas Cowboys

However.....the ability to find these guys is what typically puts a GM in the HOF. It takes skill, experience and a talent that has been missing from this franchise for 30 years.

 

[TheDank]

About one a year is honestly pretty solid for those rounds. UDFAs are also a pretty big contributing group not listed here.

Blue seems like by far the most likely but otherwise maybe one other guy sticks as a role player.

Been a couple of dry years in '21 and '23 though. Too early to tell on last year.

 

[gimmesix]

Three immediate big points:

• I liked the guys we drafted. Especially in rounds 1-3. Tyler Booker, Donovan Ezeiruaku and Shevon Revel are going to have impact almost immediately.
• I also believe we did not adequately address the biggest position needs we had going into the draft: DT, RB AND WR.
• Yes, on Day 3, we did draft speedy RB Jaydon Blue, DTs Jay Toia and Tommy Akingbesote and power back Phil Mafah. But the odds of those Day 3 guys becoming starters or even big contributors according to history are low.

So…What are the odds that a Day 3 Cowboys draft pick will ever become a primary starter for us? Here’s what history says:

• From 2015 through 2024 the Cowboys have used a total of 54 picks on Day 3 - 5th, 6th, and 7th round prospects.
• So here are ALL the Day 3 picks the Cowboys have had the last decade by year (multi-year starters in bold)
  • 2015: LB Damien Wilson, DE Ryan Russell, LB Mark Nzechoa, OT Lawrence Gibson, TE Geoff Swaim.
  • 2016: DE Charles Tapper, QB Dak Prescott, CB Anthony Brown, S Kavin Frazier, RB Darius Jackson, TE Rico Gathers.
  • 2017: WR Ryan Switzer, S Xavier Woods, DT Joie Ivey, WR Noah Brown, DT Jordan Carrell
  • 2018: DE Dorance Armstrong, TE Dalton Schultz, QB Mike White, LB Chris Covington, WR Cedric Wilson, RB Bo Scarborough.
  • 2019: RB Tony Pollard, CB Michael Jackson, DE Joe Jackson, S Donovan Wilson, RB Mike Webber, DE Jalen Jenks.
  • 2020: CB Reggie Robinson III, C Tyler Biadz, DT Bradley Anae, QB Ben DiNucci.
  • 2021: LB Jabril Cox, OL Josh Ball, WR Simi Fehoko, DT Quinton Bohanna, S Israel Mukamu, OL Matt Farniok.
  • 2022: TE Jake Ferguson, OT Matt Waletzko, CB Daron Bland, LB Damone Clark, DT John Ridgeway, LB Devin Harper.
  • 2023: DL Vilami Fehoko, OL Asim Richards, CB Eric Scott, RB Deuce Vaughn, WR Jalen Brooks
  • 2024: CB Calen Carson, WR Ryan Flournoy, OL Nathan Thomas, DL Justin Thomas.
• Of those 54 Day 3 draft picks the last decade, 11 became starters. Which is about 20%,, slightly above league average of 17%.

So again, I like a lot of the guys we drafted. But we cannot depend on the Day 3 draftees to fix us at DT or RB. (We didn’t draft a WR) I believe the FO is still working on picking up a WR and another RB. They should.

Yeah, this is what makes me shake my head when fans start talking about finding our starting this or starting that on Day 3 of the draft. At a 20 percent success rate or lower (for all NFL teams), you have to get quite lucky.

Maybe we've done that this year, but the odds are against it.

 

[gimmesix]

What's the league average for RBs? Personally, I think Blue and Mafah are going to make it.

I covered that in another thread. It's not high. I think it was at 20 percent for the 2023 draft (2 of 10), if I remember right.

 

[gimmesix]

What's the league average for RBs? Personally, I think Blue and Mafah are going to make it.

The good news is there are more players than the 20 percent who contribute at least through their rookie contract. Think a Noah Brown or Cedrick Wilson or Israel Mukuamu.

The hit rate has more to do with finding starters. Mafah and Blue both may never be starters but might be role players. A player like Toia may have a role in the league as an early-down run stopper.

I just think overall that fans have higher expectations for the Day 3 picks than the reality. We see a DaRon Bland succeed and start thinking everyone can be a DaRon Bland. We see a sixth-round pick fail and blame the front office for not drafting Tom Brady. Never mind that every team, including New England, passed on Brady for five rounds.

 

[Bobhaze]

What's the league average for RBs? Personally, I think Blue and Mafah are going to make it.

Here’s a good 2024 article on the “hit rate” for RBs.
https://lastwordonsports.com/nfl/2024/04/12/running-back-hit-rates-by-nfl-draft-round/

Basically it says NFL averages for RBs who do well:

• Round 1 hit rate for RBs over last decade: 12/16 =75%
• Round 2 : 50%
• Round 3: 33%
• Round 4: 16%
• Round 5: 9%
• Round 6: 6%
• Round 7: 4%

After round 3, it’s a long shot.

 

[Bobhaze]

I thought day

I thought day 3 included the 4th round as well (that was rhetorical). Why did you not Include that?

Day 3 is rounds 4-7 but we didn’t have a 4th round pick this year. I did count all the ones we did take 2015-24.