The Dak to Pickens combination shows extremely high potential

MarcusRock said:
The data is what the data is. Now there's an excuse for why the data isn't the data? As I said, it's been my eye test over the years and the one year I pull data, lo and behold it backs it up. Why is that hard to accept?
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Because no one in their right mind would accept that as representative of a career. The data you provide is useless. There is no excuses needed because your sample size isn’t large enough to draw conclusions on 1 year, much less a career.

You pulled 8 games during a poor season with a weak #2 WR and poor TE play and tried to use that to represent his 9 year career. Can you not understand how that would be hard for anyone to take seriously?

The sample size is laughably small and the results look odd at first glance anyway (Dak had 11 passes over 30+ yards and Mahomes had 4 ???). And you have a guy ranked #2 who in an earlier post you touted as one of the best at 30+ and you made that conclusion with a sample size of 5 passes?

I know you claimed you didn’t have an agenda but this seems a little sus IMO.
 
TheMarathonContinues said:
You pulled data from a partial season in which he got hurt. Why not pull data from 2023 to back your claim? And I’m not even saying the data won’t say what you claim because it may. But 2023 is a better representation of what he is. Mind you he struggled the first 7 games there too.
Click to expand...
Oh, all sorts of caveats, eh? Lol. I'll do you a few better though. How about looking at Dak's past 3 years beyond last year?

.............2023 ........................2022....................2021
Week 1: 0/0............................0/0......................0/0
Week 2: 0/1.........................Injured...................0/0
Week 3: 0/0.........................Injured...................1/2
Week 4: 0/0.........................Injured...................1/2, TD
Week 5: 0/2, INT..................Injured...................2/2, TD
Week 6: 0/1.........................Injured...................0/2
Week 7: BYE..........................0/3..................No Data
Week 8: 0/1............................0/0...................Injured
Week 9: 0/1........................No Data..................0/5
Week 10: 2/3, 1 TD................0/0.......................0/0
Week 11: 0/0..........................0/0.......................0/1
Week 12: 3/6, 2 TDs..............0/1.......................1/1
Week 13: Missing Data..........0/1.......................0/1
Week 14: 1/3..........................1/2.......................0/0
Week 15: 0/1..........................0/1.......................0/1
Week 16: 1/1......................No Data...................0/3
Week 17: 1/3, TD...................0/3....................No Data
Week 18: 0/0 .........................0/3.......................0/0
Wild Card: XXXX....................0/1.......................0/2
Div. Game: 1/5 ......................1/3.....................XXXX

So when you look at FOUR trailing Prescott years, here they are:

2024: 2/11 (18%), 0 TDs, 2 INTs
2023: 9/28 (32%), 4 TDs, 1 INT
2022: 2/18 (11%), 0 TDs, 0 INTs
FYI, Cooper Rush 1/6 (16%), 0 TDs, 0 INTs​
2021: 5/22 (22%), 2 TDs, 0 INTs

Now tell me, if you had to pick an anomaly year, which would it be? Be honest. Does my eye test have credibility or do I have lyin' eyes?
 
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Spottswoode said:
So just to be clear, you checked Dak’s stats for 1 year v other QB’s and concluded he that his deep ball accuracy was poor for his career and your proof is trust me bro?

Since 20+ yards includes 30+ yards as well and it has been shown that he rates pretty high for +20 yards but according to you, he drops to last or 2nd to last for 30+, he must be an absolute beast from 20-29 yards. Otherwise, how could he rate high for 20+ but last or 2nd to last for 30+?

Something seems off on your claim.
Click to expand...
Aren't you cute. Nothing's off. I targeted 30+ stats and pulled stats from 30+. They told the story I expected after years of observation.
 
Spottswoode said:
Because no one in their right mind would accept that as representative of a career. The data you provide is useless. There is no excuses needed because your sample size isn’t large enough to draw conclusions on 1 year, much less a career.

You pulled 8 games during a poor season with a weak #2 WR and poor TE play and tried to use that to represent his 9 year career. Can you not understand how that would be hard for anyone to take seriously?

The sample size is laughably small and the results look odd at first glance anyway (Dak had 11 passes over 30+ yards and Mahomes had 4 ???). And you have a guy ranked #2 who in an earlier post you touted as one of the best at 30+ and you made that conclusion with a sample size of 5 passes?

I know you claimed you didn’t have an agenda but this seems a little sus IMO.
Click to expand...
If you can make excuses for Dak, Mahomes had a down year and that's his excuse. Regarding Wilson, again, you'd have to know his years history to know he's been a great long ball thrower. I do. But the point there was that he completed more long balls in only 2 games than Dak did in 8 because ....... he's historically been a great long ball thrower. If people don't know that then ah well. They're operating with imcomplete data sets (the horror!).

And I don't care who takes me seriously or not here. It's an opinion forum, not "the science of statistics" class. I state my cases and it's on to the next. I come with proof most times. Here, it's years of observation, data pulled (now years of data), it showed what I thought. Believe my data pull, or not. It's neutral data. But if neutral data is offensive somehow because it seems to say what I hypothesize, I can tell you where an agenda might lie.
 
MarcusRock said:
Oh, all sorts of caveats, eh? Lol. I'll do you a few better though. How about looking at Dak's past 3 years beyond last year?

.............2023 ........................2022....................2021
Week 1: 0/0............................0/0......................0/0
Week 2: 0/1.........................Injured...................0/0
Week 3: 0/0.........................Injured...................1/2
Week 4: 0/0.........................Injured...................1/2, TD
Week 5: 0/2, INT..................Injured...................2/2, TD
Week 6: 0/1.........................Injured...................0/2
Week 7: BYE..........................0/3..................No Data
Week 8: 0/1............................0/0...................Injured
Week 9: 0/1........................No Data..................0/5
Week 10: 2/3, 1 TD................0/0.......................0/0
Week 11: 0/0..........................0/0.......................0/1
Week 12: 3/6, 2 TDs..............0/1.......................1/1
Week 13: Missing Data..........0/1.......................0/1
Week 14: 1/3..........................1/2.......................0/0
Week 15: 0/1..........................0/1.......................0/1
Week 16: 1/1......................No Data...................0/3
Week 17: 1/3, TD...................0/3....................No Data
Week 18: 0/0 .........................0/3.......................0/0
Wild Card: XXXX....................0/1.......................0/2
Div. Game: 1/5 ......................1/3.....................XXXX

So when you look at FOUR trailing Prescott years, here they are:

2024: 2/11 (18%), 0 TDs, 2 INTs
2023: 9/28 (32%), 4 TDs, 1 INT
2022: 2/18 (11%), 0 TDs, 0 INTs
FYI, Cooper Rush 1/6 (16%), 0 TDs, 0 INTs​
2021: 5/22 (22%), 2 TDs, 0 INTs

Now tell me, if you had to pick an anomaly year, which would it be? Be honest. Does my eye test have credibility or do I have lyin' eyes?
Click to expand...
One more full year for you @TheMarathonContinues. 2020 is when Dak snapped his leg but he was doing good (but injury years don't count, right? Lol. I kid, I kid). But here's 2019. What say you?

6/27 (22%), 1 TD, 4 INTs

1:..1/2
2:..1/2, TD
3:..0/2, INT
4:..0/2, INT
5:..0/0
6:..0/0
7:..0/1, INT
8: BYE
9:.. 0/3
10: 0/2, INT
11: 1/3
12: 0/0
13: 1/2
14: 0/2
15: 0/1
16: 1/4
17: 1/1
 
jazzcat22 said:
Oh boy, the haters will not like this.

The more films I see like this, the more I love this trade.
Great job Dallas.
Click to expand...
Why wont the 'haters' like it? I always thought your "haters" and "agenda" accusation's were levelled at anti-Dak fans?
 
MarcusRock said:
As I said, 2 of 3 were with ZERO pressure, so I accounted for the 3rd with pressure. When you have at least 7 yards of clearance to make a throw in the NFL you gotta come away with something. You don't have to be perfect. Freakin' pull the string so your receiver can have a chance at least. The Cooks one is inexcusable. Period. Period. The second, you have to see the defenders and he lofted it too far. If you know your receiver and don't adjust your balls accordingly, what do you expect? The SF one he was pressured but still threw into double coverage. There was no chance there. Throw it out of bounds. These all count. There's no excuse with Pickens on board now. It'll tell us if it was WR personnel or not, although I've noticed this for years and have discussed it with you also.
Click to expand...
The best attribute Pickens brings, is the threat. What makes this more important, and will enhance the who Offensive Scheme, is when/if Dak utilizes it.
With Cooks on the field, defenses were 'Whatever! he's not getting the ball....Dak wont throw into coverage and doesnt throw much outside of WR1/TE'...... this changes everything, BUT DAK HAS TO BE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MAKE THE THREAT A REALITY.
Excellent, scheme changing trade.
 
TheMarathonContinues said:
That was because he sucked last year. That data doesn’t back your claim up.
Click to expand...
Those figures may need some form of analysis, but likewise pro-Dak figures used by 'Fans' also needs a analytical appraisal.
The convergence from both sides, is that Dak needs to make the 'deep threat' a viable option, in the minds and scheming of the DC. If he doesnt, AND PICKENS GIVES HIM AN EXCELLENT OPPORTUNITY, then Defenses are going to sit in Blueprint coverage of choking off Dak's 'comfort zone'....underneath.
Dak now has the weapon .....no excuses, this is his chance to become the QB that you and Jerry believe he is.
 
MarcusRock said:
Oh, all sorts of caveats, eh? Lol. I'll do you a few better though. How about looking at Dak's past 3 years beyond last year?

.............2023 ........................2022....................2021
Week 1: 0/0............................0/0......................0/0
Week 2: 0/1.........................Injured...................0/0
Week 3: 0/0.........................Injured...................1/2
Week 4: 0/0.........................Injured...................1/2, TD
Week 5: 0/2, INT..................Injured...................2/2, TD
Week 6: 0/1.........................Injured...................0/2
Week 7: BYE..........................0/3..................No Data
Week 8: 0/1............................0/0...................Injured
Week 9: 0/1........................No Data..................0/5
Week 10: 2/3, 1 TD................0/0.......................0/0
Week 11: 0/0..........................0/0.......................0/1
Week 12: 3/6, 2 TDs..............0/1.......................1/1
Week 13: Missing Data..........0/1.......................0/1
Week 14: 1/3..........................1/2.......................0/0
Week 15: 0/1..........................0/1.......................0/1
Week 16: 1/1......................No Data...................0/3
Week 17: 1/3, TD...................0/3....................No Data
Week 18: 0/0 .........................0/3.......................0/0
Wild Card: XXXX....................0/1.......................0/2
Div. Game: 1/5 ......................1/3.....................XXXX

So when you look at FOUR trailing Prescott years, here they are:

2024: 2/11 (18%), 0 TDs, 2 INTs
2023: 9/28 (32%), 4 TDs, 1 INT
2022: 2/18 (11%), 0 TDs, 0 INTs
FYI, Cooper Rush 1/6 (16%), 0 TDs, 0 INTs​
2021: 5/22 (22%), 2 TDs, 0 INTs

Now tell me, if you had to pick an anomaly year, which would it be? Be honest. Does my eye test have credibility or do I have lyin' eyes?
Click to expand...
Like I said above I’m not writing off what you are saying or that it’s wrong. I’m just trying to figure out what exactly is being said. You mind explaining above? Is this touchdowns on deep balls and completion percentages?
 
CowboyoWales said:
Those figures may need some form of analysis, but likewise pro-Dak figures used by 'Fans' also needs a analytical appraisal.
The convergence from both sides, is that Dak needs to make the 'deep threat' a viable option, in the minds and scheming of the DC. If he doesnt, AND PICKENS GIVES HIM AN EXCELLENT OPPORTUNITY, then Defenses are going to sit in Blueprint coverage of choking off Dak's 'comfort zone'....underneath.
Dak now has the weapon .....no excuses, this is his chance to become the QB that you and Jerry believe he is.
Click to expand...
This isn’t an anti Dak or pro Dak thing. All I’m doing is asking a question. I tell people all the time since 2016 Dak has shown us what he is. Either you think he sucks or doesn’t. I’m no longer in the business of changing anyone’s opinion on that. We all have eyes.
 
TheMarathonContinues said:
Like I said above I’m not writing off what you are saying or that it’s wrong. I’m just trying to figure out what exactly is being said. You mind explaining above? Is this touchdowns on deep balls and completion percentages?
Click to expand...
Yup, that's what they are. It's every pass he threw that landed 30 or more yards from the LOS (which of course means he threw it further being at least 7 or so yards behind the LOS in general). I've noticed over the years he doesn't do that well so one day I pulled numbers.

So when you look at his now 5 recent years of such data, are his yearly numbers typically closer to his crappy 2024 numbers where he ranked behind all those top QBs I compared him to then or his respectable 2023 numbers?
 
MarcusRock said:
Yup, that's what they are. It's every pass he threw that landed 30 or more yards from the LOS (which of course means he threw it further being at least 7 or so yards behind the LOS in general). I've noticed over the years he doesn't do that well so one day I pulled numbers.

So when you look at his now 5 recent years of such data, are his yearly numbers typically closer to his crappy 2024 numbers where he ranked behind all those top QBs I compared him to then or his respectable 2023 numbers?
Click to expand...
So is it that he can’t do it or won’t do it? Because it’s not zero percent. Off the top I can think of the Ty Hilton play…..a play in which has only happens 8 times….converting a 3rd and 30….then there’s the Lions throw to Lamb….
 
MarcusRock said:
Yup, that's what they are. It's every pass he threw that landed 30 or more yards from the LOS (which of course means he threw it further being at least 7 or so yards behind the LOS in general). I've noticed over the years he doesn't do that well so one day I pulled numbers.

So when you look at his now 5 recent years of such data, are his yearly numbers typically closer to his crappy 2024 numbers where he ranked behind all those top QBs I compared him to then or his respectable 2023 numbers?
Click to expand...
Im still trying to understand your point in judging 30+ yd. plays, which only happens at max 27 times per season (Dak's max attempts per your stats).

In the stats you posted, in '24 Lamar Jackson was just in front of Dak at 3/12 1TD and Jackson won the MVP in '24.

So this stat doesn't really hold weight other than to... do what exactly?
 
MarcusRock said:
Oh, all sorts of caveats, eh? Lol. I'll do you a few better though. How about looking at Dak's past 3 years beyond last year?

.............2023 ........................2022....................2021
Week 1: 0/0............................0/0......................0/0
Week 2: 0/1.........................Injured...................0/0
Week 3: 0/0.........................Injured...................1/2
Week 4: 0/0.........................Injured...................1/2, TD
Week 5: 0/2, INT..................Injured...................2/2, TD
Week 6: 0/1.........................Injured...................0/2
Week 7: BYE..........................0/3..................No Data
Week 8: 0/1............................0/0...................Injured
Week 9: 0/1........................No Data..................0/5
Week 10: 2/3, 1 TD................0/0.......................0/0
Week 11: 0/0..........................0/0.......................0/1
Week 12: 3/6, 2 TDs..............0/1.......................1/1
Week 13: Missing Data..........0/1.......................0/1
Week 14: 1/3..........................1/2.......................0/0
Week 15: 0/1..........................0/1.......................0/1
Week 16: 1/1......................No Data...................0/3
Week 17: 1/3, TD...................0/3....................No Data
Week 18: 0/0 .........................0/3.......................0/0
Wild Card: XXXX....................0/1.......................0/2
Div. Game: 1/5 ......................1/3.....................XXXX

So when you look at FOUR trailing Prescott years, here they are:

2024: 2/11 (18%), 0 TDs, 2 INTs
2023: 9/28 (32%), 4 TDs, 1 INT
2022: 2/18 (11%), 0 TDs, 0 INTs
FYI, Cooper Rush 1/6 (16%), 0 TDs, 0 INTs​
2021: 5/22 (22%), 2 TDs, 0 INTs

Now tell me, if you had to pick an anomaly year, which would it be? Be honest. Does my eye test have credibility or do I have lyin' eyes?
Click to expand...
I’m starting to get a little embarrassed for you, so I think I will back out of the discussion and let others decide for themselves. You obviously make a living doing something that doesn’t include math or statistics.

I’ll just leave on one last note. You are trying to make conclusions based on incredibly small sample sizes. The data you share may make you feel warm and fuzzy but anyone with half a brain would laugh at your conclusions based on what you have shared.

Sorry to be a “D” but that’s the reality.

P.s. I don’t believe Mahomes only threw a 30+ pass 4 times last year.
 
MarcusRock said:
If you can make excuses for Dak, Mahomes had a down year and that's his excuse. Regarding Wilson, again, you'd have to know his years history to know he's been a great long ball thrower. I do. But the point there was that he completed more long balls in only 2 games than Dak did in 8 because ....... he's historically been a great long ball thrower. If people don't know that then ah well. They're operating with imcomplete data sets (the horror!).

And I don't care who takes me seriously or not here. It's an opinion forum, not "the science of statistics" class. I state my cases and it's on to the next. I come with proof most times. Here, it's years of observation, data pulled (now years of data), it showed what I thought. Believe my data pull, or not. It's neutral data. But if neutral data is offensive somehow because it seems to say what I hypothesize, I can tell you where an agenda might lie.
Click to expand...
It’s hard to take you seriously with your incredible knowledge of QB histories across the league when you draw your conclusions from the type of data you have shared.
 
TheMarathonContinues said:
So is it that he can’t do it or won’t do it? Because it’s not zero percent. Off the top I can think of the Ty Hilton play…..a play in which has only happens 8 times….converting a 3rd and 30….then there’s the Lions throw to Lamb….
Click to expand...
I know, but the data is what it is. So are his numbers closer to the crappy 2024 or the much better 2023?
 
CowboyoWales said:
Those figures may need some form of analysis, but likewise pro-Dak figures used by 'Fans' also needs a analytical appraisal.
The convergence from both sides, is that Dak needs to make the 'deep threat' a viable option, in the minds and scheming of the DC. If he doesnt, AND PICKENS GIVES HIM AN EXCELLENT OPPORTUNITY, then Defenses are going to sit in Blueprint coverage of choking off Dak's 'comfort zone'....underneath.
Dak now has the weapon .....no excuses, this is his chance to become the QB that you and Jerry believe he is.
Click to expand...
I’m not pro or anti Dak. I am anti useless data as I work with statistics and probabilities daily.

A smaller sample size is always going to skew longer passes including 20+ yards. The analysts who have started incorporating expected completion percentage are going to be less biased because they are taking into consideration situational issues that can greatly influence the results when small samples are being used.
 
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