Big spending teams on WRs don't make the playoffs often enough

[Bobhaze]

With all the discussions about tagging George Pickens and how or why we should keep him long term, or if we should keep both he and Cedee Lamb…There’s an interesting fact about the teams who are top ten spenders each year on WRs:

They don’t usually even make the playoffs.
In fact, in the last 5 seasons (2021-25), the top ten most expensive WR rooms only made the playoffs approximately 46% of the time.
For example, here are the top ten teams spending big on WRs in 2025:

1. Cincinnati-$50.9 million
2. Tampa Bay - $47.5 million
3. Miami - $41 million
4. Chicago - $35.3 million
5. Tennessee- $33.6 million
6. Indianapolis- $33.4 million
7. Detroit $30.4 million
8. San Francisco $29.1 million
9. Washington $28.7 million
10. Dallas $28.2 million

Of those ten teams only three made the playoffs in 2025.

I won’t take up a huge amount of space here listing each team from 2021-24. But I did my homework and only one team in the last 5 years that spent top ten money on WRs won a SB - the 2023 chiefs.

So as we discuss how to allocate future cap space, let’s remember that having the highest paid WR room does not translate to playoff success very often. Not saying WR talent isn’t important. Just saying be wise and discerning on spending big money on them.

Here’s the link I used: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/position/_/year/2025/table/active-reserve/type/cap_total
(You can look up positional spending by year)

 

[gimmesix]

With all the discussions about tagging George Pickens and how or why we should keep him long term, or if we should keep both he and Cedee Lamb…There’s an interesting fact about the teams who are top ten spenders each year on WRs:

They don’t usually even make the playoffs.
In fact, in the last 5 seasons (2021-25), the top ten most expensive WR rooms only made the playoffs approximately 46% of the time.
For example, here are the top ten teams spending big on WRs in 2025:

1. Cincinnati-$50.9 million
2. Tampa Bay - $47.5 million
3. Miami - $41 million
4. Chicago - $35.3 million
5. Tennessee- $33.6 million
6. Indianapolis- $33.4 million
7. Detroit $30.4 million
8. San Francisco $29.1 million
9. Washington $28.7 million
10. Dallas $28.2 million

Of those ten teams only three made the playoffs in 2025.

I won’t take up a huge amount of space here listing each team from 2021-24. But I did my homework and only one team in the last 5 years that spent top ten money on WRs won a SB - the 2023 chiefs.

So as we discuss how to allocate future cap space, let’s remember that having the highest paid WR room does not translate to playoff success very often. Not saying WR talent isn’t important. Just saying be wise and discerning on spending big money on them.

Here’s the link I used: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/position/_/year/2025/table/active-reserve/type/cap_total
(You can look up positional spending by year)

Unless we do this at each position, it's hard to say it's not more coincidence. I mean, how many teams with the top 10 expensive CB rooms made the playoffs? How many with the top 10 OL rooms? WRs alone certainly aren't going to get you there, but that doesn't mean WRs with the right talent at other positions won't. And the cap can be manipulated to help you fill those other positions.

I think a good example of this is the Eagles. They are not on your list, but they gave AJ Brown a three-year, $96 million contract extension in 2024 and gave Davonta Smith a three-year, $75 million extension that same year ... and they won the Super Bowl that year.

 

[RonWashington]

Look at Miami # 3 on that list . It’s one thing to spend on WR’s it’s quite another when you don’t have the QB to get them the ball and obviously with Tua they didn’t.

Bengals case in point once Burrow gets hurt there finished and they were . They never have seemed to invest in a dominant OL for him .

With the Cowboys tagging Pickens seems like a sound move and if the Defense is half way competent it should spell much more success then 7 wins given a high powered offense .

I think it’s more team by team then a case of over spending at WR .

 

[Bobhaze]

Unless we do this at each position, it's hard to say it's not more coincidence. I mean, how many teams with the top 10 expensive CB rooms made the playoffs? How many with the top 10 OL rooms? WRs alone certainly aren't going to get you there, but that doesn't mean WRs with the right talent at other positions won't. And the cap can be manipulated to help you fill those other positions.

I think a good example of this is the Eagles. They are not on your list, but they gave AJ Brown a three-year, $96 million contract extension in 2024 and gave Davonta Smith a three-year, $75 million extension that same year ... and they won the Super Bowl that year.

When the eagles won the SB in 2024, they were 13th in WR spending at approximately $25 mil. Yes they had AJ Brown and Davonta Smith but their salaries were structured so they did not have a big cap hit in 2024.

Under GM Howie Roseman, they have always been great at cap management.

And this year they traded Brown which will lower their spending at that position.

In 2026 the Cowboys are set be the #2 spender in the NFL at the WR position. Pickens cap hit on the tag this year is $28 million.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

Look at Miami # 3 on that list . It’s one thing to spend on WR’s it’s quite another when you don’t have the QB to get them the ball and obviously with Tua they didn’t.

Bengals case in point once Burrow gets hurt there finished and they were . They never have seemed to invest in a dominant OL for him .

With the Cowboys tagging Pickens seems like a sound move and if the Defense is half way competent it should spell much more success then 7 wins given a high powered offense .

I think it’s more team by team then a case of over spending at WR .

I agree Ron......several factors to consider. Except for the Bengal, I don't think any team has intentionally signed TWO WRs to huge long-term deals. Even with the Cowboys, it's unlikely we will have two WRs making top money after this season.

 

[Bobhaze]

I agree Ron......several factors to consider. Except for the Bengal, I don't think any team has intentionally signed TWO WRs to huge long-term deals. Even with the Cowboys, it's unlikely we will have two WRs making top money after this season.

Hawk I agree with you. Except the Cowboys will be spending a ton in 2026 at the WR position.

We will be #2 in the league in WR cap space, spending $60 million in 2026.

Last year we spent $28 million just to compare.

 

[Kwyn]

It’s too bad they extended Lamb.

Pickens is ascending.

We’ve got dead money lined up for Lamb all the way to 2030

 

[Hawkeye0202]

It’s too bad they extended Lamb.

Pickens is ascending.

We’ve got dead money lined up for Lamb all the way to 2030

They restructured his contract. It will still need attention after this season ......2027 $46M cap hit

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/cowboys-restructure-ceedee-lambs-contract-155456751.html

https://overthecap.com/player/ceedee-lamb/8757

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

With all the discussions about tagging George Pickens and how or why we should keep him long term, or if we should keep both he and Cedee Lamb…There’s an interesting fact about the teams who are top ten spenders each year on WRs:

They don’t usually even make the playoffs.
In fact, in the last 5 seasons (2021-25), the top ten most expensive WR rooms only made the playoffs approximately 46% of the time.
For example, here are the top ten teams spending big on WRs in 2025:

1. Cincinnati-$50.9 million
2. Tampa Bay - $47.5 million
3. Miami - $41 million
4. Chicago - $35.3 million
5. Tennessee- $33.6 million
6. Indianapolis- $33.4 million
7. Detroit $30.4 million
8. San Francisco $29.1 million
9. Washington $28.7 million
10. Dallas $28.2 million

Of those ten teams only three made the playoffs in 2025.

I won’t take up a huge amount of space here listing each team from 2021-24. But I did my homework and only one team in the last 5 years that spent top ten money on WRs won a SB - the 2023 chiefs.

So as we discuss how to allocate future cap space, let’s remember that having the highest paid WR room does not translate to playoff success very often. Not saying WR talent isn’t important. Just saying be wise and discerning on spending big money on them.

Here’s the link I used: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/position/_/year/2025/table/active-reserve/type/cap_total
(You can look up positional spending by year)

Doesn’t this list coincide with bad defenses too? If you have a bad defense you probably are the teams on this list that didn’t make the playoffs. Off the top Bengals, Cowboys and Commanders make the list.

And looking at those 3 teams they have spent some money on defense and wasted it on guys. Especially Bengals and Cowboys.

 

[RonWashington]

I agree Ron......several factors to consider. Except for the Bengal, I don't think any team has intentionally signed TWO WRs to huge long-term deals. Even with the Cowboys, it's unlikely we will have two WRs making top money after this season.

You might be right . I think you tag Pickens this year fine but I don’t expect that strategy 2 years in a row which means unfortunately even with Flournoy & Lamb a WR will be high on the grocery list come next April draft .

 

[Diehardblues]

Our playoff hopes reside more on if our defense has improved.

I don’t think franchises go into a season thinking we’ve allocated too much Cap space on WR’s is going to limit our chances to make the playoffs anymore than QB or other position does. How many teams make SB after making QB top paid.

Sometimes these stats are simply something to critique after the fact. Bottomline is you try to retain as many star talents as possible.

If Cowboys felt this was a concern they’d of resigned Pickens so his Cap hit was minimal at least for a couple seasons. Cap hits move around depending on when your better talents are resigned .

My bigger concern this season is on our defense not if we’ve allocated too much on WR. Personally we appear to have allocated too much on offense overall but that’s our strength. And if our defense has improved enough this offense will still need to carry us into playoffs and beyond .

 

[fivetwos]

With all the discussions about tagging George Pickens and how or why we should keep him long term, or if we should keep both he and Cedee Lamb…There’s an interesting fact about the teams who are top ten spenders each year on WRs:

They don’t usually even make the playoffs.
In fact, in the last 5 seasons (2021-25), the top ten most expensive WR rooms only made the playoffs approximately 46% of the time.
For example, here are the top ten teams spending big on WRs in 2025:

1. Cincinnati-$50.9 million
2. Tampa Bay - $47.5 million
3. Miami - $41 million
4. Chicago - $35.3 million
5. Tennessee- $33.6 million
6. Indianapolis- $33.4 million
7. Detroit $30.4 million
8. San Francisco $29.1 million
9. Washington $28.7 million
10. Dallas $28.2 million

Of those ten teams only three made the playoffs in 2025.

I won’t take up a huge amount of space here listing each team from 2021-24. But I did my homework and only one team in the last 5 years that spent top ten money on WRs won a SB - the 2023 chiefs.

So as we discuss how to allocate future cap space, let’s remember that having the highest paid WR room does not translate to playoff success very often. Not saying WR talent isn’t important. Just saying be wise and discerning on spending big money on them.

Here’s the link I used: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/position/_/year/2025/table/active-reserve/type/cap_total
(You can look up positional spending by year)

Got the point, but I dont think it’s impossible to win with two highly paid WRs, regardless of history. First, it opens up the run game, and good luck to DCs trying to consistently stop it, but it’s not really a matter of that. It’s about practicality and cap allocation.

Personally I’d lean toward not resigning him and replacing him in the first round next year. You probably can’t get another WR1A with the 32nd pick, but you could probably snag a Deebo type if you do your homework.

This one could very much go either way, and many key factors are TBD. If they do ink him to a big ole bag, I’ll remain indifferent, but I won’t go throwing my hands in the air and saying winning can't happen, not for that reason anyway. Much more to know before that decision is due…probably by design (don’t mistake that with me giving the clowns any credit, but just maybe someone who has a seat at the table has finally decided to speak “candidly,” as Jerry likes to say).

Dont forget our annual June mantra….’this year feels different.’

 

[ArtClink]

With all the discussions about tagging George Pickens and how or why we should keep him long term, or if we should keep both he and Cedee Lamb…There’s an interesting fact about the teams who are top ten spenders each year on WRs:

They don’t usually even make the playoffs.
In fact, in the last 5 seasons (2021-25), the top ten most expensive WR rooms only made the playoffs approximately 46% of the time.
For example, here are the top ten teams spending big on WRs in 2025:

1. Cincinnati-$50.9 million
2. Tampa Bay - $47.5 million
3. Miami - $41 million
4. Chicago - $35.3 million
5. Tennessee- $33.6 million
6. Indianapolis- $33.4 million
7. Detroit $30.4 million
8. San Francisco $29.1 million
9. Washington $28.7 million
10. Dallas $28.2 million

Of those ten teams only three made the playoffs in 2025.

I won’t take up a huge amount of space here listing each team from 2021-24. But I did my homework and only one team in the last 5 years that spent top ten money on WRs won a SB - the 2023 chiefs.

So as we discuss how to allocate future cap space, let’s remember that having the highest paid WR room does not translate to playoff success very often. Not saying WR talent isn’t important. Just saying be wise and discerning on spending big money on them.

Here’s the link I used: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/position/_/year/2025/table/active-reserve/type/cap_total
(You can look up positional spending by year)

Interesting research and as always, well done! One note is only 9 out of 10 teams listed have a functional head coach.

 

[CATCH17]

It’s just hard to play games late in the year depending on wideouts.

You really need homefield or be in a dome for it to be optimal.

Oline, and defense travel in any weather.

 

[Pass2Run]

Unless we do this at each position, it's hard to say it's not more coincidence. I mean, how many teams with the top 10 expensive CB rooms made the playoffs? How many with the top 10 OL rooms? WRs alone certainly aren't going to get you there, but that doesn't mean WRs with the right talent at other positions won't. And the cap can be manipulated to help you fill those other positions.

I think a good example of this is the Eagles. They are not on your list, but they gave AJ Brown a three-year, $96 million contract extension in 2024 and gave Davonta Smith a three-year, $75 million extension that same year ... and they won the Super Bowl that year.

Well said

 

[Ironicalicon]

I think they are playing it right—afford him while you (think you) can and see how far two #1 WRs can get you. If that recipe works, run in back and make it work financially. If not, let him walk and save some money long-term.

 

[gimmesix]

When the eagles won the SB in 2024, they were 13th in WR spending at approximately $25 mil. Yes they had AJ Brown and Davonta Smith but their salaries were structured so they did not have a big cap hit in 2024.

Under GM Howie Roseman, they have always been great at cap management.

And this year they traded Brown which will lower their spending at that position.

In 2026 the Cowboys are set be the #2 spender in the NFL at the WR position. Pickens cap hit on the tag this year is $28 million.

I think that's picking nits. The Eagles still were paying two receivers top money by contract. If we give Pickens a new deal next year, his first-year hit will be lower and Dallas will drop down on that list. We'll also likely restructure Lamb's base next year, like we did last year, because it's $28 million.

I agree that the Eagles do a great job at cap management, but every year is about how you want to allocate your cap. Dallas could have given Pickens a long-term deal this year and lowered the amount of his hit dramatically, but that's not what the Cowboys wanted to do.

The fact that the Eagles were 13th in WR spending does not negate the fact that they had given two top contract extensions to their receivers ... and they won the Super Bowl while doing it.

 

[jazzcat22]

Stats at times can be manipulated to show a for or against argument on almost any subject.
Not saying they are in this case. But to me it has nothing to do with making the playoffs or not.

Take the Bengals. They made, and should have won the SB with both their high paid WR's when they were on rookie contracts.
So now they are the highest paid tandem, but can't make the playoffs. Throw that stat out the window.

Both the Bengals and Cowboys had two of the worse defenses ever the past several years. That had more to do with it than high paid WR's.
Figure in injuries as well. Dallas was starting PS players a good part of the time.
Bengals missing Joe Burrow did not help then any either on top of a bad defense. He hs been injured several seasons, not allowing them to make or win a playoff game.

It all still comes down to the overall team. Not 1 or 2 players. Unless your QB is so elite he can overcome certain deficiencies.

 

[Kwyn]

When we inevitably botch the Pickens situation and end up losing him, replacing Ferguson with a more talented tight end becomes a priority,

Dak absolutely needs two elite pass catchers

 

[Rockport]

With all the discussions about tagging George Pickens and how or why we should keep him long term, or if we should keep both he and Cedee Lamb…There’s an interesting fact about the teams who are top ten spenders each year on WRs:

They don’t usually even make the playoffs.
In fact, in the last 5 seasons (2021-25), the top ten most expensive WR rooms only made the playoffs approximately 46% of the time.
For example, here are the top ten teams spending big on WRs in 2025:

1. Cincinnati-$50.9 million
2. Tampa Bay - $47.5 million
3. Miami - $41 million
4. Chicago - $35.3 million
5. Tennessee- $33.6 million
6. Indianapolis- $33.4 million
7. Detroit $30.4 million
8. San Francisco $29.1 million
9. Washington $28.7 million
10. Dallas $28.2 million

Of those ten teams only three made the playoffs in 2025.

I won’t take up a huge amount of space here listing each team from 2021-24. But I did my homework and only one team in the last 5 years that spent top ten money on WRs won a SB - the 2023 chiefs.

So as we discuss how to allocate future cap space, let’s remember that having the highest paid WR room does not translate to playoff success very often. Not saying WR talent isn’t important. Just saying be wise and discerning on spending big money on them.

Here’s the link I used: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/position/_/year/2025/table/active-reserve/type/cap_total
(You can look up positional spending by year)

Too many other factors in play to derive this conclusion. It’s an example of how to use stats to push any agenda. Take Miami for example, that entire team was bad including all the QB’s. So the WR’s get blamed? Doesn’t compute. Appreciate the effort in the thread.