Image: QB Records When the Defense Allows 21+ Points

[gtb1943]

Stroud was the shocking one to me. He basically doesn’t do anything to help them win

Not shocking if you watched him last year. He folded like a very cheap tent when the pressure was on

 

[DoctorChicken]

Nothing. They're basically the same QB who fails in the playoffs. But the person who brought it up thinks Dak is elite compared to Herbert.

Where did they say they think Dak is elite compared to Herbert?

 

[BobSacamano]

Yep, this chart shows why cowboys typically have lost to great Qb's on other teams, Our boy Dak just isn't as good when we need him most.. I love Dak, but facts are facts..

He’s still top 10

 

[Nova]

This is telling for the reason that almost no QB has a winning record when the defense gives up three touchdowns.

What it doesn’t say is HOW MANY MORE points are scored over 21 for each QB on average.

So if Dak’s record includes his defense giving up 30-40 points at a higher rate, that’s meaningfully different than a guy with a defense giving up 24 points and squeezing out a win.

 

[DFWJC]

Quarterbacks don't have won-loss records

It does say a little bit about overall offenses in their careers.

Stafford played most of his years in Detroit.
In his 5 Rams years, he would be 2nd on the list...for example

 

[Vtwin]

Generally meaningless for the reasons already stated.

It is interesting that Mahomes led offenses win more than they lose and that Rodgers led offenses are so high on the list with so much larger of a sample size.

 

[shabazz]

Some interesting stats on here

I’m starting to think this Mahomes kid is pretty good

Im also interested in the stat that shows the Cowboys record being 55-49 when Rayne Dakota throws 30 or more passes.

Chiefs record is 76-28 when Mahomes throws 30 or more passes.

Interesting

 

[Vtwin]

Also interesting that 5 of the 8 above 40% are guys known for being mobile and being able to extend the play when it breaks down.

 

[5Starter]

It's almost like some of these teams (eagles) consistently have defenses that can give their offense the ball back

2021: 9-8 Ranked 10th in yards allowed, lost in Wild Card

2022: 14-3 Ranked 2nd in yards allowed, Super Bowl Appearance

2023: 11-6 Ranked 26th in yards allowed, lost in Wild Card

2024: 14-3 Ranked 1st in yards allowed, Super Bowl Champions

2025: 11-6 Ranked 13th in yards allowed, lost in Wild Card

I wonder what Dallas' defense has ranked since Dak?

Btw I really don't care except for the idea that a qb is the only reason you win or lose if defense gives up 21

 

[noshame]

The + after 21 Kind of makes this a little bit irrelevant.

 

[Chasing6]

Some interesting stats on here

I’m starting to think this Mahomes kid is pretty good

Very misleading stats.

 

[DallasInDC]

If you really think about it, that stat and chart is really telling.

Honestly, there are a lot of variables that keeps it from being telling. Just an example, you could be up 24-7 (and for the sake of argument lets say you had a special teams TD, a 5 yd passing TD and a 40 yard rushing TD) in the 4th and win 24-21 with a TD given up in the last 10 secs of the game vs being down 24-7 ( for arguments sake, you had 3 passing TDs) in the 4th and winning 28-24. Those are entirely 2 different impacts of QB play, yet in this stat they both get the credit of winning after the defense gave up 21 points.

 

[Kevinicus]

1. QBs don't have a record.
2. This should include what the average given up during those games is (and what the defense scored).
3. It should include what the offense's average scored in those games is.
4. It should probably include several tiers of points allowed to get a better idea of what's the breakdown.

If a team gives up 22-24 points sometimes, but another team is giving up 29-33 a lot, wins when the other team scores 21+ are a lotter harder for the 2nd team.

 

[Yobwocs]

What has Herbert done that Dak hasn’t?

Daks never had a defense like those early Bengals teams too. I think Dak would make a Super Bowl with the 2021 or 22 Bengals defenses who kept the Bills, Chiefs and Titans offenses down.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Very misleading stats.

Any stat can be misleading.

Depends on what you want to say with them and what you want to hear.

 

[erod]

Last two Cowboys-49ers playoff games....

Cowboys couldn't score 21 points in either of them.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

1. QBs don't have a record.

Full on hit the screaming brakes...


Yes they do.

You'll see qb win loss record in almost every single article on any qb.

Just the way it is.

I know you want to take the high road....but just not the reality of things.

We all know Dan Marino never won a super bowl. Who was the right tackle?

Just the way it is.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Last two Cowboys-49ers playoff games....

Cowboys couldn't score 21 points in either of them.

The tampa / san fran playoff sequence is dallas cowboys in a nutshell.

 

[Reality]

Honestly, there are a lot of variables that keeps it from being telling. Just an example, you could be up 24-7 (and for the sake of argument lets say you had a special teams TD, a 5 yd passing TD and a 40 yard rushing TD) in the 4th and win 24-21 with a TD given up in the last 10 secs of the game vs being down 24-7 ( for arguments sake, you had 3 passing TDs) in the 4th and winning 28-24. Those are entirely 2 different impacts of QB play, yet in this stat they both get the credit of winning after the defense gave up 21 points.

You're reading your own bias or projected thoughts into what I said. It was not about criticizing any player, but simply looking at the end results.

Of course good defenses make average quarterbacks look great and bad defenses make good quarterbacks look bad.

In this case though, looking at the quarterbacks in the top 10 you realize most of those are the ones winning in the playoffs and the ones below are mostly (there are exceptions) the quarterbacks that do not.

This is one stat that seems to divide the bulk of those quarterbacks accurately.

 

[jblaze2004]

Based on Gemini if we chang ethe metric to the defense giving up 30+ points

Starting Quarterback Win % (When Defense Allows 30+ Points)​

Note: Includes career regular-season and playoff starts for current starting QBs.

Rank	Quarterback	Team	Record (30+ Pts Allowed)	Win %
1	Patrick Mahomes	Kansas City Chiefs	10–16	.385
2	Josh Allen	Buffalo Bills	7–13	.350
3	Jalen Hurts	Philadelphia Eagles	5–10	.333
4	Jared Goff	Detroit Lions	7–19	.269
5	Brock Purdy	San Francisco 49ers	2–6	.250
6	Dak Prescott	Dallas Cowboys	7–25–1	.227
7	Lamar Jackson	Baltimore Ravens	3–11	.214
8	Justin Herbert	Los Angeles Chargers	3–14	.176
9	Aaron Rodgers	New York Jets	8–46–1	.155
10	Matthew Stafford	Los Angeles Rams	8–52	.133
11	Joe Burrow	Cincinnati Bengals	1–9	.100
12	Kirk Cousins	Atlanta Falcons	3–31	.088
13	Baker Mayfield	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2–23	.080
14	Trevor Lawrence	Jacksonville Jaguars	1–13	.071
15	Tua Tagovailoa	Miami Dolphins	0–11