NeonDeion21
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With less than a week until the Dallas Cowboys kick off their 2014 season, we here at Cover32 Dallas have covered every single story of the off-season. From player breakdowns to mailbags to the final 53 man roster cut down, we have you covered. But with only a few days until the kickoff of the NFL season, I want to talk a little bit about a philosophy that I personally believe in and would like to see the Dallas Cowboys implement. What am I exactly talking about? The two point conversion. If I was in charge of the Dallas Cowboys offense, I would attempt the two-point conversion on every single touchdown, regardless of the score (unless you need one point to win the game, otherwise we are going for two.)
But before I dive too far into this, I want it to be known that I do not know or expect Dallas to follow through in this plan. It’s a personal belief. We are going to get into some math in a little bit, but here’s my reasoning as to why I think Dallas should go for it on every score. The Cowboy’s defense is likely going to be very poor. They are going to get into a ton of shootouts. And in shootouts, every point is going to matter. Picture it like a high school basketball team that is way undersized and has no chance of scoring in the paint. In order to combat their lack of height, they will just start chucking up shots beyond the three point line and eventually, the percentages will actually play out in their favor. Let me show how it would work for the Cowboys.
Last year, the Dallas Cowboys scored 51 touchdowns total. On those 51 touchdowns, they kicked the extra point 47 times (and converted all 47 times.) They went for two the other four times and converted only once. In total, Dallas scored 49 points on extra points plus two-point conversions. Remember that number, we will be using it again soon.
So in 2013, Dallas converted 25% of their two point conversions. Not too good. But to be fair, it’s a pretty small sample size. Over the last 20 years, the two point conversion rate is a little over 45%. And coaches tend to call the wrong types of plays according to Jonathan Bales:
“Two-point conversions are only statistically inferior to extra points because coaches tend to call the wrong plays down by the goal line. Over the last 20 seasons, rushing the ball has yielded a successful two-point conversion over 60 percent of the time. Even if a team went for two points after nearly every score and rushed the ball each time, I doubt the success rate would jump below 50 percent (the break-even level at which two-point tries are statistically equivalent to extra points, assuming a 100 percent success rate on the latter). Thus, extra points should actually only be attempted in very specific situations, such as a tied game in the fourth quarter.”
Read the rest at: http://cover32.com/cowboys/2014/09/0...om-chip-kelly/
But before I dive too far into this, I want it to be known that I do not know or expect Dallas to follow through in this plan. It’s a personal belief. We are going to get into some math in a little bit, but here’s my reasoning as to why I think Dallas should go for it on every score. The Cowboy’s defense is likely going to be very poor. They are going to get into a ton of shootouts. And in shootouts, every point is going to matter. Picture it like a high school basketball team that is way undersized and has no chance of scoring in the paint. In order to combat their lack of height, they will just start chucking up shots beyond the three point line and eventually, the percentages will actually play out in their favor. Let me show how it would work for the Cowboys.
Last year, the Dallas Cowboys scored 51 touchdowns total. On those 51 touchdowns, they kicked the extra point 47 times (and converted all 47 times.) They went for two the other four times and converted only once. In total, Dallas scored 49 points on extra points plus two-point conversions. Remember that number, we will be using it again soon.
So in 2013, Dallas converted 25% of their two point conversions. Not too good. But to be fair, it’s a pretty small sample size. Over the last 20 years, the two point conversion rate is a little over 45%. And coaches tend to call the wrong types of plays according to Jonathan Bales:
“Two-point conversions are only statistically inferior to extra points because coaches tend to call the wrong plays down by the goal line. Over the last 20 seasons, rushing the ball has yielded a successful two-point conversion over 60 percent of the time. Even if a team went for two points after nearly every score and rushed the ball each time, I doubt the success rate would jump below 50 percent (the break-even level at which two-point tries are statistically equivalent to extra points, assuming a 100 percent success rate on the latter). Thus, extra points should actually only be attempted in very specific situations, such as a tied game in the fourth quarter.”
Read the rest at: http://cover32.com/cowboys/2014/09/0...om-chip-kelly/
