Did the Cowboys overachieve in 2018? Why we need to treat the off-season as if we went 7-9

[Denim Chicken]

 

[Future]

The Cowboys philosophical approach is to keep games close and try to win late. They could be an improved team next year and still go 6-10 because of it.

 

[Denim Chicken]

The Cowboys philosophical approach is to keep games close and try to win late. They could be an improved team next year and still go 6-10 because of it.

I don't believe the first part. I'm quite sure we'd rather be blowing the doors off teams rather than keeping games close. The poor red zone efficiency was not by intentional design.

 

[StarOfGlory]

No, this team has talent. We are what our record says we are. I think with better coaching we are an 11-5 team waiting to happen.

 

[Future]

Also, this is a really, really good article.

When teams win five or more close games than they lost, they have immediately dropped in record in the next season in 18 of 21 instances since 2006. It is worth noting that the three times this rule was broken it was by the Indianapolis Colts, over the course of multiple coaches and quarterbacks. They are massive outliers in close games in general....
If you took a time machine back to 2006, you could go 39-2-1 predicting that unsustainably good close game records would lead to an immediate drop-off and unsustainably bad close game records would lead to an immediate rise. The NFL devours itself through its parity machine (outside of quarterback play and head coaches), but three or four teams a year become easy reads because of how they performed in close games the year prior. When the process is right 94 percent of the time, you take it for its word.

 

[Future]

I don't believe the first part. I'm quite sure we'd rather be blowing the doors off teams rather than keeping games close. The poor red zone efficiency was not by intentional design.

Grinding out games and controlling clock is the antithesis to blowing teams out in a cap league.

 

[CATCH17]

This should be the approach even if you win the Superbowl.

Dallas gets comfortable at times though but it's usually not from a roster standpoint. There is always some nice turnover but they line up and try to out athlete every team season to season. That's what is annoying about being a team of this fan base.


Now they are trying to sell us on Kellen Moore.. Show me.. And when people clock on to his tendencies then don't risk weeks and seasons going back to your same tendencies because they worked in the past.

Get out in front of things for a change.

 

[Denim Chicken]

Grinding out games and controlling clock is the antithesis to blowing teams out in a cap league.

When you have a top defense--like we did early in the year--and you maximize your red zone trips, you're not going to keep games close.

 

[GenoT]

They didn’t overachieve, but they did manage to eventually climb out of a preseason hole which they largely dug themselves: no #1 WR, inexperience at TE, all new position coaches, starters barely playing in preseason games, etc.

 

[Future]

When you have a top defense--like we did early in the year--and you maximize your red zone trips, you're not going to keep games close.

But this is impractical. It's not like they're going to go 100% in the red zone.

 

[Direwolf63]

Many will poo poo this article as meaningless.

 

[xwalker]

The Patriots tend to take a stead approach every year. They rarely go all-in on free agents but they also don't just acquire special teams players after winning the Super Bowl.

The Cowboys steady approach to roster building in recent years has worked better than the Go-For-It moves that Jerry made in the past (Joey Galloway and Roy Williams trades, Brandon Carr mega-contract, move up in the draft for Claiborne, etc..).

 

[Creeper]

The goal is to get to the Super Bowl and have a chance to win. The Colts and Rams shined a light on at least one problem that will prevent the Cowboys from achieving that goal. If that problem is not fixed they can go 13-3 again and still lose in the first or 2nd round of the playoffs. The need to shore up that defensive line so they can at least fight teams like the Colts and Rams to a draw.

 

[Denim Chicken]

But this is impractical. It's not like they're going to go 100% in the red zone.

Of course not, but we can do better than 26th in the league.

 

[Future]

Of course not, but we can do better than 26th in the league.

Sure, but that doesn't mean they're going to be winning by any more than they did.

Even if they lead the league in TD %, if they don't add a lot more trips to the red zone, we're not talking about much improvement in scoring. For the sake of round numbers, if they go from 50% to 75%, you're only adding 2 points per red zone opportunity. That's pretty insignificant in terms of blowing teams out, especially for a team with a defense that's due to regress in the red zone. Cowboys opponents had almost the same success rate as Dallas.

 

[Denim Chicken]

Sure, but that doesn't mean they're going to be winning by any more than they did.

Even if they lead the league in TD %, if they don't add a lot more trips to the red zone, we're not talking about much improvement in scoring. For the sake of round numbers, if they go from 50% to 75%, you're only adding 2 points per red zone opportunity. That's pretty insignificant in terms of blowing teams out, especially for a team with a defense that's due to regress in the red zone. Cowboys opponents had almost the same success rate as Dallas.

Good point and I would agree that the RZ trips need to increase as well as the efficiency, but increasing RZ trips is not totally a product of more possessions. Dallas ranked 17th in points per drive (2.06) which should definitely be improved to increase wins.

 

[Gameover]

Cowboys have near great upside on offense.

I could actually see the defense trending back to middle of the road and the offense moving into the top 10. Matter of fact I’ll be shocked if the offense isn’t top 12!

In some ways, the Cowboys underachieved by only going tougher than it should’ve been, 10-6.

Return of Fred
Experienced Williams
Smith
Martin
The RT
Add in a good backup lt

That is potentially the best OL the Cowboys have had in this era

Cooper
Not as sold on Gallup as others are but: Galllup
Watson
Brown

WR and TE will be in better shape at the start 19 than they were in 18

Draft a RB

Continued improvement from Dak: who should be primed to have the best season of career

This is why I don’t look at this is say I did the 2009 yes’m that went 11-5. This team went 10-6 while underachieving

 

[Gameover]

Cowboys have near great upside on offense.

I could actually see the defense trending back to middle of the road and the offense moving into the top 10. Matter of fact I’ll be shocked if the offense isn’t top 12!

In some ways, the Cowboys underachieved by only going tougher than it should’ve been, 10-6.

Return of Fred
Experienced Williams
Smith
Martin
The RT
Add in a good backup lt

That is potentially the best OL the Cowboys have had in this era

Cooper
Not as sold on Gallup as others are but: Galllup
Watson
Brown

WR and TE will be in better shape at the start 19 than they were in 18

Draft a RB

Continued improvement from Dak: who should be primed to have the best season of career

This is why I don’t look at this is say I did the 2009 yes’m that went 11-5. This team went 10-6 while underachieving

yikes

Typing fast

I don’t look at this team the way I do say the 2009 team that went 11-5, this team has more upside within its roster. That team had peaked on the OL

 

[JayFord]

We didn’t over achieve

With good coaching this is a 14-2 team just about every year

I mean everyone knows our plays imagine if they didn’t

 

[MaaS]

I think we'll need to improve to win 10 again. Mostly because of a schedule with some really tough games (on paper, at least). Not because we overachieved this year.