I know Spagnola, he's a homer for the Cowboys, but I don't disagree with him in this case. I don;t know who the other guy arguing is.
But analytics are not perfect. They give you probabilities with a degree of error. I'd have to see what those numbers are and where they came from but Spagnola is right, there are factors during a game that you have to take into consideration. Garrett normally is bad at that. He struggles assessing the flow of a game and too often makes decisions that go against the flow. A great example is going for it on 4th down against the Jets, down 7-3 choosing a play where Dak runs to the left to pick of 2 yards. He failed.
We can debate this forever, but I still think taking the FG was the right decision on 4th and 7. There was still 6 minutes left in the game. Remember, the Cowboys were down 7 points. Even if the got the TD to tie it up, they still would have needed to stop the Patriots to get the ball back and hopefully kick the game winning FG. Garrett just took the FG first. And think about it. They stopped the Patriots and got the ball back with plenty of time. Then they moved the ball until the ridiculous tripping call negated a first down and ended the drive. Even then, had they stopped the Patriots with the game on the line, they could have gotten the ball back with a minute and 30 seconds. But this defense, knowing the Patriots would run the ball, gave up 12 yards on 2 carries. Of all the things that happened on Sunday, Garrett's decision in that situation was the least of their mistakes. There were so many others by the Cowboys and the refs that the FG decision was nothing.