Audio: Mickey and Shan got into it on the radio today

[Haimerej]

I mean honestly. This should be easy to understand why the poker player would at least want to see those win probability numbers. Right?

I have a theory. I've believed for a while some of the most vocal fans on here are gamblers. You gamble?

But yeah, I get why a card player would deal in probabilities. The deck is static, though. It's the same deck every time. Do you understand how that's different than a game involving multiple other variables?

 

[HungryLion]

I'm well acquainted with cern. Did I question his knowledge of nuclear submarines? Don't recall doing so. These little nuggets from you are what makes my pry into your understanding of what you're saying. You apparently didn't understand what I wrote to cern, so...

What I find sad is, you think sound mathematical probabilities based off analyzing tens of thousands
Of data points, doesn’t offer at least some value in decision making because “it can’t be tested”

 

[Haimerej]

That’s just blatantly false.

The stats are complied and calculated specifically to be predictive. It doesn’t mean they are infallible. But they actually do provide a prediction. Stats that say you have a 55% of winning is offering a prediction. The prediction is that under the same scenarios 100
Times. You would likely win 55 times and lose 45 times. Or if you make this decision, in this situation 100 times. You would win 60 time and lose 40.

you don’t see that information could be helpful?

If that's the probability, it might as well be 50/50. Which if we're being honest, it always is.

 

[HungryLion]

I have a theory. I've believed for a while some of the most vocal fans on here are gamblers. You gamble?

But yeah, I get why a card player would deal in probabilities. The deck is static, though. It's the same deck every time. Do you understand how that's different than a game involving multiple other variables?

I do, but the calculations they are basing their probabilities on are also far more complex to account for those variables.

Which means it’s still not An argument for why you wouldn’t want that information available to form
An opinion.

 

[HungryLion]

If that's the probability, it might as well be 50/50. Which if we're being honest, it always is.

that’s not being honest. That’s just false. 60/40 is not 50/50.

considering all the other variables that affect a football game, perhaps coaches should be looking for every advantage possible. I mean that only makes sense.

 

[yimyammer]

I really need to explain why the data is important?

It’s taking thousands of points of data over decades of NFL history, that calculate the probability of winning or losing NFL games based on a decision to kick a field goal or punt, or go for it on 4th down. Even based on running or passing the ball.

and we had the discussion about probabilities before. People take winning probabilities into consideration in many many other things. Card games, board games, roulette, dice games, etc. People based their decision to hit or stay based on how likely they are to get a card they need and how likely the dealer is to have the cards they need, etc.

Probabilities are used in business when calculating whether an investment is worthwhile or not.

And like I’ve said, It doesn’t mean you only go with the decision that has the higher probability of working. I have said you also take other factors into consideration. Like your opponent, and matchups and how your own team is currently playing.

But given new technology that allows coaches to have this extra information presented to them in real time within seconds. There is no valid reason to at least have the information available when making a decision.

Having more information available to make decisions is a good thing. In every aspect of life.

There is no reason not to. Choosing to not have that information available and consider it is willful ignorance. It is choosing to not know something that you could know. That may help you form an more educated opinion.

I don’t know why that concept is difficult for you to grasp.

All of our lives are one long series of probability assessments we make mostly subconsciously, often guided by feelings which stand in stark contrast to what the numbers suggest we should do but if heeded, would result in a dramatically different life for the better (& sometimes worse)

 

[HungryLion]

If that's the probability, it might as well be 50/50. Which if we're being honest, it always is.

Your argument basically boils down to “there’s no way to know for sure What will
Happen, So why bother having more
Information to make a more informed decision and better my decision making process”.

that apathy does tend to lead to loser results. So I’m
Starting to understand why Garret thinks that way.

 

[HungryLion]

I have a theory. I've believed for a while some of the most vocal fans on here are gamblers. You gamble?

But yeah, I get why a card player would deal in probabilities. The deck is static, though. It's the same deck every time. Do you understand how that's different than a game involving multiple other variables?

I don’t gamble. I’m Just able to understand the very simple concept That having more, Useful Information available, can help
Somebody MaKe more informed decisions.


you and Garret don’t see the “value” In having statistical probabilities available as information to help make decisions.

Bill Billichek and John Harbaugh and Doug Pederson and Andy Reid do.

all coaches who have accomplished far more
Than Garret in the NFL.

So maybe I’ll just trust Belichek and Harbaugh who find the information useful. Rather than trust Garret.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

that’s not being honest. That’s just false. 60/40 is not 50/50.

considering all the other variables that affect a football game, perhaps coaches should be looking for every advantage possible. I mean that only makes sense.

Even if all the analytics would provide was a 51/49 ratio it would be advantageous.

 

[HungryLion]

Even if all the analytics would provide was a 51/49 ratio it would be advantageous.

exactly. And when winning margins are razor thin like
They are in the NFL. Every advantage matters.

 

[Haimerej]

No. Because you’re throwing out nonsense like “it’s not predictive” without any basis for saying it.

You brought up the coin flip in the other thread, right? I don't see how you can understand that regardless of how many times in a row you got heads, it's still 50/50 on the next flip.

And now nonsense like “here’s a reason, it’s just a stat”.

You said there's no good reason and I gave you one. It's just a stat.

Here’s the thing. You accuse me of throwing out my data talking point and not backing it up.

I said at the time you hadn't shown it was valuable. I still don't think you have.

When given sound and logical reasoning, your only retort is “it’s not predictive” and “it’s just a stat”. Or “it’s just trivia”.

You’re offering nothing of value to actually argue against the benefit of using probabilities. Nothing.

So have at it dude. Disagree all you want. That’s your right. You’re free to be willfully ignorant.

What's interesting is you can't actually show that football analytics have any merit for what will happen in the next game or the next play. You think it does, but from what you've explained above it's merely an assessment of the past attempting to predict the future.

 

[yimyammer]

ach should at least have that information available to them?

I feel like im taking crazy pills trying to explain why this can be helpful to a coach.

 

[HungryLion]

You brought up the coin flip in the other thread, right? I don't see how you can understand that regardless of how many times in a row you got heads, it's still 50/50 on the next flip.



You said there's no good reason and I gave you one. It's just a stat.



I said at the time you hadn't shown it was valuable. I still don't think you have.



What's interesting is you can't actually show that football analytics have any merit for what will happen in the next game or the next play. You think it does, but from what you've explained above it's merely an assessment of the past attempting to predict the future.

Yeah a Coin flip is 50/50.

60/40 Is not 50/50. If you’re going come back with retorts like that, any further discussion is pointless. Why would you bring up a coin flip to argue that 60/40 Is essentially 50/50. That is asinine.


Yes everytime you flip a coin the probability remains the same. Nobody can control that.

When you make decisions on a football field. It can actually raise or decrease the probability of winning the game. So the probability can be changed, based on a coaches decisions.

so it’s Nothing like a coin flip. It’s more
Like bending the coin or changing the coin to
Change the probability of it landing heads or tails.

@CalPolyTechnique is this guy serious?

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

But the lack of any reliance on analytics is a reason why Garrett isn’t a good coach.

It’s all intertwined.

There’s a argument for that.

I'm with ya but I do suffer from analysis paralysis from taking in too much info on certain decisions, so there can be some downside if one is a perfectionist

oh trust The least of my concern with Garrett is him using analytics. I think it’s overrated to use. It can be good in some instances but look at Doug Peterson if you want to see bad use of analytics. He does it week in and out.

 

[HungryLion]

You brought up the coin flip in the other thread, right? I don't see how you can understand that regardless of how many times in a row you got heads, it's still 50/50 on the next flip.



You said there's no good reason and I gave you one. It's just a stat.



I said at the time you hadn't shown it was valuable. I still don't think you have.



What's interesting is you can't actually show that football analytics have any merit for what will happen in the next game or the next play. You think it does, but from what you've explained above it's merely an assessment of the past attempting to predict the future.

Actually I have. Coaches like Belichek and Harbaugh and Pederson believe the numbers have merit. You know, all coaches who win superbowls. Unlike our current coach.

That is far more evidence of their usefulness than anything you’ve stated so far.

 

[Haimerej]

I do, but the calculations they are basing their probabilities on are also far more complex to account for those variables.

Which means it’s still not An argument for why you wouldn’t want that information available to form
An opinion.

The argument is that it's just a stat. It doesn't foretell the future.

 

[HungryLion]

The argument is that it's just a stat. It doesn't foretell the future.

They don’t “foretell” the future.

They do in fact, help You predict the future, based on the past.

That is valuable.


What do you think meteorologists do? Do they just pull out a crystal ball and “foretell” the weather.

No, they generate models based on historical and present atmospheric data to predict the most likely outcome with the weather.

 

[Haimerej]

that’s not being honest. That’s just false. 60/40 is not 50/50.

considering all the other variables that affect a football game, perhaps coaches should be looking for every advantage possible. I mean that only makes sense.

How is it an advantage?

Let's say Garrett goes on 4th and 7 and scores the TD. Then NE gets it, chews up the rest of the clock and kicks a FG to win. How was that decision any better than the one he made?

 

[HungryLion]

How is it an advantage?

Let's say Garrett goes on 4th and 7 and scores the TD. Then NE gets it, chews up the rest of the clock and kicks a FG to win. How was that decision any better than the one he made?

why wouldn’t you just want as much information as possible to try and predict what will
Happen if you make a certain choice?

that’s all I’m saying is every little bit of info helps to make informed decisions. I never said it’s a guaranteed sure thing. Come on


What if I make decisions to buy a house based on all the information I possibly can of what meets my needs and I can afford.


Then 1 year later I get hit by a car and am
Disabled.


All of a sudden that house doesn’t meet my needs.

but it doesn’t mean I shouldn’t have made my prior decision to buy the house with AS MUCH RELEVANT INFORMATION AS POSSIBLE at
The time.

 

[Haimerej]

Yeah a Coin flip is 50/50.

60/40 Is not 50/50. If you’re going come back with retorts like that, any further discussion is pointless. Why would you bring up a coin flip to argue that 60/40 Is essentially 50/50. That is asinine.

Yeah, that is asinine. Glad I didn't do that. I brought up the coin flip in response to you saying it was, "nonsense," to say they're not predictive.

I don't get why you seemingly understand that the past doesn't predict the future in that sense, but then think it does when it comes to football.

Yes everytime you flip a coin the probability remains the same. Nobody can control that.

When you make decisions on a football field. It can actually raise or decrease the probability of winning the game. So the probability can be changed, based on a coaches decisions.

so it’s Nothing like a coin flip. It’s more
Like bending the coin or changing the coin to
Change the probability of it landing heads or tails

If you can't tell, I root for the 40 in the 60/40. It's more rewarding when you beat the odds.