Draft Process

JD_KaPow · May 6, 2021

I'm a big believer that having a good process is the best way to achieve good outcomes. So I'm always interested in trying to glean what I can about the Cowboys' draft process from how the draft plays out.

Bad process can result in good outcomes (the trade that got us Fredbeard is, I believe, an example of that). Good process can lead to bad outcomes (I think the Claiborne trade was perfectly reasonable from a process perspective, but it didn't work out).

Looking at this year's draft through a process lens:
Round 1. It seems pretty likely that the Cowboys were unhappy with how the first 9 picks fell. But that's okay. The trade down from 10 to 12 was terrific from a process standpoint: they gave up nothing and gained a day 2 pick. Passing up the possible trade down to 20? I'm neutral on that. If they valued Parsons significantly more than players they thought would be available at 20, then I have no problem with it. Overall, it wasn't a dream situation like last year, but they managed the situation well.

Round 2. If they really had Joseph in the same talent tier as Moehrig and others, then fine. We can argue about their risk assessment, but in general I think the Cowboys do a good job of building a draft board, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt on this one.

Round 3. This is where the wheels come off. I can't prove it, but I don't believe they went by their draft board with these picks. I think Jerry let Dan Quinn have whoever he wanted, just like he used to let Marinelli decide who he liked on defense a couple times in the draft. Terrible process, likely to lead to poor outcomes.

I don't know if it's true, as has been suggested in other threads, that the Cowboys aren't good at scouting/evaluating defensive players. I don't think any of us know, because I don't believe they have the courage of their convictions when push comes to shove. Jerry is way too willing to defer to the DC's desires and whims at the expense of sticking to a solid process. There are two problems with that. One is that the outcomes tend to be poor (Taco). The second is that you can't get a true evaluation of your ability to scout and evaluate defensive talent if you're ignoring what your scouts and evaluators say on draft day. If you let the process work and you pick lousy players, then you fire people and hire new ones. But if you don't let the process work, you have no basis to make those kinds of decisions that help you improve.

RS12 · May 6, 2021

Jerry and Stevie involved = bad process.

blueblood70 · May 6, 2021

JD_KaPow said:
I'm a big believer that having a good process is the best way to achieve good outcomes. So I'm always interested in trying to glean what I can about the Cowboys' draft process from how the draft plays out.

Bad process can result in good outcomes (the trade that got us Fredbeard is, I believe, an example of that). Good process can lead to bad outcomes (I think the Claiborne trade was perfectly reasonable from a process perspective, but it didn't work out).

Looking at this year's draft through a process lens:
Round 1. It seems pretty likely that the Cowboys were unhappy with how the first 9 picks fell. But that's okay. The trade down from 10 to 12 was terrific from a process standpoint: they gave up nothing and gained a day 2 pick. Passing up the possible trade down to 20? I'm neutral on that. If they valued Parsons significantly more than players they thought would be available at 20, then I have no problem with it. Overall, it wasn't a dream situation like last year, but they managed the situation well.

Round 2. If they really had Joseph in the same talent tier as Moehrig and others, then fine. We can argue about their risk assessment, but in general I think the Cowboys do a good job of building a draft board, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt on this one.

Round 3. This is where the wheels come off. I can't prove it, but I don't believe they went by their draft board with these picks. I think Jerry let Dan Quinn have whoever he wanted, just like he used to let Marinelli decide who he liked on defense a couple times in the draft. Terrible process, likely to lead to poor outcomes.

I don't know if it's true, as has been suggested in other threads, that the Cowboys aren't good at scouting/evaluating defensive players. I don't think any of us know, because I don't believe they have the courage of their convictions when push comes to shove. Jerry is way too willing to defer to the DC's desires and whims at the expense of sticking to a solid process. There are two problems with that. One is that the outcomes tend to be poor (Taco). The second is that you can't get a true evaluation of your ability to scout and evaluate defensive talent if you're ignoring what your scouts and evaluators say on draft day. If you let the process work and you pick lousy players, then you fire people and hire new ones. But if you don't let the process work, you have no basis to make those kinds of decisions that help you improve.

your lens is clouded with hyperbole, conjecture, and rumor , simply fans are creating narratives from air..

there zero evidence they turned down a offer to move to 20 from the bears, i havent seen it, its possible the bears didnt come to them with it...

zero evidence the 3rd round was a reach and not on their board in any way..you don't pull names out of think air in 15 min window or less to make your picks, saying they allowed these to all be 100% Quinns choice=RUMOR

saying they dont follow their board and didnt trust the process is just again rumor based opinions because you didnt like the pick and what you had board, what board is that ?

mocks?? a bunch of media and evaluators who told you who the DC FO should take??

the DC FO build's their own boards and has list of tires on who they might take..3rd round seems suspicious, sure, but that doesnt make it what fans are trying to make it..theres no conspiracy and they dint waste the entire 3rd round with any thought going into it..

JD_KaPow · May 6, 2021

blueblood70 said:
your lens is clouded with hyperbole, conjecture, and rumor , simply fans are creating narratives from air..

there zero evidence they turned down a offer to move to 20 from the bears, i havent seen it, its possible the bears didnt come to them with it...

zero evidence the 3rd round was a reach and not on their board in any way..you don't pull names out of think air in 15 min window or less to make your picks, saying they allowed these to all be 100% Quinns choice=RUMOR

saying they dont follow their board and didnt trust the process is just again rumor based opinions because you didnt like the pick and what you had board, what board is that ?

mocks?? a bunch of media and evaluators who told you who the DC FO should take??

the DC FO build's their own boards and has list of tires on who they might take..3rd round seems suspicious, sure, but that doesnt make it what fans are trying to make it..theres no conspiracy and they dint waste the entire 3rd round with any thought going into it..

Did you miss the part where I said, "I can't prove it," and referred to the "possible" trade to 20? Of course there's a lot of speculation in there, but that's all I have until and unless we hear something else. The third round smells very fishy to me, and fishy in a way that's consistent with prior Cowboys drafts where the process appears to have broken down.

I believe they followed good process in the first two rounds and abandoned good process in the third round. I could be completely wrong, but that's how it looks to me. I have no particular opinion on the quality of the players themselves, but I do see a pattern in the third-round picks: they were generally ranked much lower on consensus boards, they share particular physical traits associated with what Quinn seems to like. It's not dispositive, but as you say, it "seems suspicious."

Plankton · May 6, 2021

When your "chief decision makers" don't have a core philosophy on how to build a football team, or can tell you what a Cowboy player looks like on a positional basis, this is what you end up with. The Joneses defer to their coaches because they don't have the knowledge necessary to do the roles that they put themselves in.

buybuydandavis · May 6, 2021

JD_KaPow said:
Round 3. This is where the wheels come off. I can't prove it, but I don't believe they went by their draft board with these picks. I think Jerry let Dan Quinn have whoever he wanted, just like he used to let Marinelli decide who he liked on defense a couple times in the draft. Terrible process, likely to lead to poor outcomes.

I don't know if it's true, as has been suggested in other threads, that the Cowboys aren't good at scouting/evaluating defensive players. I don't think any of us know, because I don't believe they have the courage of their convictions when push comes to shove. Jerry is way too willing to defer to the DC's desires and whims at the expense of sticking to a solid process.

There are two problems with that. One is that the outcomes tend to be poor (Taco). The second is that you can't get a true evaluation of your ability to scout and evaluate defensive talent if you're ignoring what your scouts and evaluators say on draft day. If you let the process work and you pick lousy players, then you fire people and hire new ones. But if you don't let the process work, you have no basis to make those kinds of decisions that help you improve.

We don't really know how the decision process works, but it has seemed like the DCs have been given leeway to "buy their groceries". Just a big problem when you're churning DCs every few years, but the inevitable result of a front office that has no football scheme philosophy of its own, and a couple of offensive minded HCs in a row.

There's no one else in the org *but* the often replaced DC to decide on the fit for *types* of defensive players. "Just gimme good players" is just dumb. Players can be good in one scheme and bad in another.

DBOY3141 · May 6, 2021

blueblood70 said:
your lens is clouded with hyperbole, conjecture, and rumor , simply fans are creating narratives from air..

there zero evidence they turned down a offer to move to 20 from the bears, i havent seen it, its possible the bears didnt come to them with it...

zero evidence the 3rd round was a reach and not on their board in any way..you don't pull names out of think air in 15 min window or less to make your picks, saying they allowed these to all be 100% Quinns choice=RUMOR

saying they dont follow their board and didnt trust the process is just again rumor based opinions because you didnt like the pick and what you had board, what board is that ?

mocks?? a bunch of media and evaluators who told you who the DC FO should take??

the DC FO build's their own boards and has list of tires on who they might take..3rd round seems suspicious, sure, but that doesnt make it what fans are trying to make it..theres no conspiracy and they dint waste the entire 3rd round with any thought going into it..

who knows if true...Bob Strum said the Bears did make an offer, but it was not as good as what the Giants got

TheMarathonContinues · May 6, 2021

Yeah there is no way Jerry told Dan Quinn to make picks lol....sheesh.

Jerry would never give someone the keys to the car like that. The Cowboys have scouts just like every other team. If they failed they failed as a collective from the top down. Can't scapegoat Dan Quinn if these picks don't work.

ThreeandOut · May 6, 2021

The Cowboys had one overwhelming objective in this draft, which was to come out of it with an immediate starting CB. When that didn't happen in round 1, they were desperate to get that corner in round 2. They reportedly attempted to trade up in the 2nd round to get Campbell. I suspect that Joseph was the "last of the Mohicans" as far as CB's they felt could come in and immediately start. So it's quite possible there were better players on the board in round 2 but they had to have the CB.

All three players selected in round 3 reportedly had 3rd round grades on their board while Cox had a 2nd round grade. I think it's understandable that they didn't take Cox with the first two 3rd round picks since they had already selected Parsons. But they had already taken a corner when they selected Wright at 99. I think they should have taken Cox with that pick because Wright was more likely to be there in the 4th round than Cox. As it turns out Cox was there in the 4th round, so you had a bad process in this instance with a good result.

JoeKing · May 6, 2021

All the scouting data (college & pro) goes to Will McClay. The respective coordinators (OC & DC) give Will McClay their recommendations. With all this data McClay puts together the draft board. The FO (Jerry, Stephen, Will, Big Mike) vote on picks. Jerry is the tiebreak vote. Jerry Jr. and Charlotte are usually in the room but they don't yet get a vote.

PhillyCowboysFan · May 6, 2021

JD_KaPow said:
I'm a big believer that having a good process is the best way to achieve good outcomes. So I'm always interested in trying to glean what I can about the Cowboys' draft process from how the draft plays out.

Bad process can result in good outcomes (the trade that got us Fredbeard is, I believe, an example of that). Good process can lead to bad outcomes (I think the Claiborne trade was perfectly reasonable from a process perspective, but it didn't work out).

Looking at this year's draft through a process lens:
Round 1. It seems pretty likely that the Cowboys were unhappy with how the first 9 picks fell. But that's okay. The trade down from 10 to 12 was terrific from a process standpoint: they gave up nothing and gained a day 2 pick. Passing up the possible trade down to 20? I'm neutral on that. If they valued Parsons significantly more than players they thought would be available at 20, then I have no problem with it. Overall, it wasn't a dream situation like last year, but they managed the situation well.

Round 2. If they really had Joseph in the same talent tier as Moehrig and others, then fine. We can argue about their risk assessment, but in general I think the Cowboys do a good job of building a draft board, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt on this one.

Round 3. This is where the wheels come off. I can't prove it, but I don't believe they went by their draft board with these picks. I think Jerry let Dan Quinn have whoever he wanted, just like he used to let Marinelli decide who he liked on defense a couple times in the draft. Terrible process, likely to lead to poor outcomes.

I don't know if it's true, as has been suggested in other threads, that the Cowboys aren't good at scouting/evaluating defensive players. I don't think any of us know, because I don't believe they have the courage of their convictions when push comes to shove. Jerry is way too willing to defer to the DC's desires and whims at the expense of sticking to a solid process. There are two problems with that. One is that the outcomes tend to be poor (Taco). The second is that you can't get a true evaluation of your ability to scout and evaluate defensive talent if you're ignoring what your scouts and evaluators say on draft day. If you let the process work and you pick lousy players, then you fire people and hire new ones. But if you don't let the process work, you have no basis to make those kinds of decisions that help you improve.

Conjecture, and a whole lot of it! But I do appreciate the extreme effort that you put into this theory.

visionary · May 6, 2021

This is because we don’t have a real GM whose jinn depends on the picks and how they play and the results on the field. So when the owner stupidly allows the DC to make ill advised picks, the scout is not going to stand up to the DC but you can bet a real GM would

blueblood70 · May 6, 2021

ThreeandOut said:
The Cowboys had one overwhelming objective in this draft, which was to come out of it with an immediate starting CB. When that didn't happen in round 1, they were desperate to get that corner in round 2. They reportedly attempted to trade up in the 2nd round to get Campbell. I suspect that Joseph was the "last of the Mohicans" as far as CB's they felt could come in and immediately start. So it's quite possible there were better players on the board in round 2 but they had to have the CB.

All three players selected in round 3 reportedly had 3rd round grades on their board while Cox had a 2nd round grade. I think it's understandable that they didn't take Cox with the first two 3rd round picks since they had already selected Parsons. But they had already taken a corner when they selected Wright at 99. I think they should have taken Cox with that pick because Wright was more likely to be there in the 4th round than Cox. As it turns out Cox was there in the 4th round, so you had a bad process in this instance with a good result.

you can flap your gums as much as you choose , won't make it more true..

biggest reason they waited was te possibility his injurys will keep him out for 2021season and didnt pass on Cox the 2nd time on sheer talent and value at that pick..

Draft Process

JD_KaPow

jimnabby

RS12

Well-Known Member

blueblood70

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JD_KaPow

jimnabby

Plankton

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buybuydandavis

Well-Known Member

DBOY3141

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TheMarathonContinues

Well-Known Member

ThreeandOut

Well-Known Member

JoeKing

Diehard

PhillyCowboysFan

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visionary

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blueblood70

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