Bill blew it by punting in overtime

T-RO · Oct 19, 2021

jaybird said:
wrong Thats just hindsite

I was saying it out-loud the moment the punt team came on, before Dallas's drive. And I say it based on the data, not emotion or a particular game outcome.

RonWashington · Oct 19, 2021

T-RO said:
Have you forgotten how many times we've already converted 4th down in "risky" situations this year?

No risk it, no biscuit. Bill goes to bed hungry.

“ Bill has 6 SB trophies “ he’s been fed

droopdog7 · Oct 19, 2021

T-RO said:
Has completed about 70% of his passes this year. Analysts have praised his accuracy, quickness to get ball out, and decision-making.

Just needed a short pass to a RB or tight end.

He looked like a rookie for most of the game past the first quarter.

droopdog7 · Oct 19, 2021

T-RO said:
Check out this calculator on whether to go for it or not. You can enter in the most meaningful game situation and run the calculation.

https://rbsdm.com/stats/fourth_calculator/

Interesting. If you assume it’s the fourth quarter, the difference is fairly small to go for it. Over a million simulations, you have a slightly better chance to win. In one case it’s relatively insignificant.

What they don’t have is the overtime scenario, which is different from the fourth quarter.

BrassCowboy · Oct 19, 2021

T-RO said:
You have time enough to repeatedly dispute and diminish people posting here.

Not 5 minutes to look at some articles that explain analytics. So lame.

If you say so...

Honestly glanced at it, just don't buy into analytics. Just like I don't buy into the idea that the NFL needs to be more offensive pass happy; by creating more rules to strap DBs & defenses, by limiting how and where a player can be hit, effectively not only making the game one sided but also taking out importance of a good running game as well. You talk about old school thinking as if it is a bad thing, but like everything else in life things only get worse.football was much more entertaining years past.
So yeah maybe that is where your interest in taking more chances are relative due to the game being decided on the big plays rather than overall grind it out great football of old.

FuzzyLumpkins · Oct 20, 2021

T-RO said:
Message board romantics? You are the one clinging to a fuzzy, warm, lost era of football, where you run on first and second down, and always dutifully punt on 4th down.

I've lost track of the Boston-area and national analysts criticizing Bill for his cowardly ways. And not only on that play but in other decisions Sunday and over the past couple years.

Just "message board romantics" slamming Bill for conservative ways? Here's others:
-Writers @ The Athletic
-Basically all local Bostonian media
-PFF
-ESPN
-Fox Sports
-NFL.com
Etc.

Their criticism doesn't prove the case here, but perhaps you should take a read or a listen.

A romantic as I write it is someone who is guided by their feelings as opposed to reason and logic. Love is not the only feeling that can guide someone. There is a whole lot of trying to feel for the truth going on here.

It is what it is.

I understand the arguments for going for it on fourth down overall. I am only interested in what is going on in this game. I am not sure what your point is. Because Buster Olney et al say BB is becoming too conservative that means they should have gone for it?

In this case he's on his own 46 and its 4th and 3 though. I have not looked at the charts in a bit but that scenario does not seem cut and dry in general or this case.

FuzzyLumpkins · Oct 20, 2021

T-RO said:
Has completed about 70% of his passes this year. Analysts have praised his accuracy, quickness to get ball out, and decision-making.

Just needed a short pass to a RB or tight end.

And he had been picked once, hit five times, and sacked twice in 21 attempts. Their run game was not consistent after we adjusted to their traps in the second quarter.

RonWashington · Oct 20, 2021

droopdog7 said:
He looked like a rookie for most of the game past the first quarter.

He needs help at WR.

T-RO · Oct 20, 2021

BrassCowboy said:
I
Honestly glanced at it, just don't buy into analytics.

We all are free agents in this world, can choose our own interests. Right?

But if you know a big fat zero about analytics, and have zero interest in learning...you have disqualified yourself to come in with any critique, don't you think?

I know nothing about cars and auto mechanics. Am I going to insert my ignorance into a debate that is way over my head, all while pretending I know better than people who actually invest time, have experience and study?

1972COWBOY · Oct 20, 2021

NE blew it by not running down the clock and scoring too early and falling for Diggs's trick.

They forgot that Dak is a great second half QB when backed into a corner.

T-RO · Oct 20, 2021

FuzzyLumpkins said:
And he had been picked once, hit five times, and sacked twice in 21 attempts. Their run game was not consistent after we adjusted to their traps in the second quarter.

If we exclude the drives where Bill chose to kill the clock...

Patriots 28/46 of downs achieved better than 3 yards. That suggests a 60% chance to convert a fourth and three. Dry weather. No wind. At home. And surely Bill and his boy wonder OC have some juicy plays prepped, right?

You cannot willingly yield the ball to the #1 offense when they'd rolled you for 500 yards already. That's pure surrender.

BrassCowboy · Oct 20, 2021

T-RO said:
We all are free agents in this world, can choose our own interests. Right?

But if you know a big fat zero about analytics, and have zero interest in learning...you have disqualified yourself to come in with any critique, don't you think?

I know nothing about cars and auto mechanics. Am I going to insert my ignorance into a debate that is way over my head, all while pretending I know better than people who actually invest time, have experience and study?

Now that is a logical response, and one I can agree with you on.
I can give you credit for not turning this back and forth into a wrestling match, and for that
I will leave you to it.

JoeKing · Oct 20, 2021

These arrogant posters second-guessing the decisions of high-quality coaches just shows how low value the advice being passed around is here.

Bill blew it by punting in overtime

T-RO

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