Final Update on Point Differential and Why it Matters

Risen Star said:

Bob subtly telling us that no team that's ranked 2nd in point differential has won a Super Bowl in recent years.

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Bobhaze said:

Last October, I shared some info about how to reliably predict who will play in a SB. I updated again a few weeks ago, and NOW…here’s the final point differential numbers for the 2021 season:

THE FINAL TOP 6 IN POINT DIFFERENTIAL:

1. Bills +194
2. Cowboys +172
3. Patriots +159
4. Buccaneers +158
5. Chiefs +116
6. Rams +88

Why is it important? Since 2000, approximately 85% of teams playing in the conference championship and Super Bowls were in the top 10 in point differential. Last year, Tampa Bay was #1 in point differential and KC was 6th.

Lately, this is even more predictive of SB teams. The last 5 seasons, the teams in the top 1-6 of point differential are the ones consistently making the super bowl. In fact, 2015 was the last year a team not in the top six of PD won the SB, and it was that great Denver defense that won it that year.

HERE IS THE EVIDENCE OF THE IMPORTANCE OF PD FROM THE LAST 5 SEASONS:
2020 SEASON

1. Ravens +165
2. Saints +145
3. Pack +140
4. Bucs +137 (SB CHAMPS)
5. Bills +126
6. Chiefs +111 (AFC champs)

2019 SEASON

1. Ravens +249
2. Pats +195
3. Niners +169 (NFC Champs)
4. Chiefs +143 (SB CHAMP)
5. Saints +117

2018 SEASON

1. Saints +151
2. Rams +143 (NFC Champs)
3. Chiefs +144
4. Bears +138
5. Pats +111 (SB CHAMPS)

2017 SEASON

1. Eagles +162 (SB CHAMPS)
2. Pats +162 (AFC champs)
3. Jaguars +149
4. Rams +148
5. Vikings +130

2016 SEASON

1. Pats +191 (SB CHAMPS)
2. Falcons +134 (NFC Champs)
3. Cowboys +115
4. Chiefs +78
5. Steelers +72

Obviously there are no guarantees and we have a lot of tough playoff football to play. But the Dallas Cowboys are in a good position to be a SB team based on recent history. They just have to get mentally and physically tough enough to do it.

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Bobhaze said:

The Cowboys won 3 (maybe 4 if Chargers win) games against playoff teams. The buccaneers have won 4 games against playoff teams. The Pack won 5 games against playoff teams, but lost to the lions and saints. The bucs got beat twice by the saints and once by the WFT. We’re 3-0 against those teams, lol. It’s not like every playoff team is only beating good teams.

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grgnfg420 said:

All it means is we beat the piss out of bad teams. It would of been nice to beat a good team this year

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Bobhaze said:

Last October, I shared some info about how to reliably predict who will play in a SB. I updated again a few weeks ago, and NOW…here’s the final point differential numbers for the 2021 season:

THE FINAL TOP 6 IN POINT DIFFERENTIAL:

1. Bills +194
2. Cowboys +172
3. Patriots +159
4. Buccaneers +158
5. Chiefs +116
6. Rams +88

Why is it important? Since 2000, approximately 85% of teams playing in the conference championship and Super Bowls were in the top 10 in point differential. Last year, Tampa Bay was #1 in point differential and KC was 6th.

Lately, this is even more predictive of SB teams. The last 5 seasons, the teams in the top 1-6 of point differential are the ones consistently making the super bowl. In fact, 2015 was the last year a team not in the top six of PD won the SB, and it was that great Denver defense that won it that year.

HERE IS THE EVIDENCE OF THE IMPORTANCE OF PD FROM THE LAST 5 SEASONS:
2020 SEASON

1. Ravens +165
2. Saints +145
3. Pack +140
4. Bucs +137 (SB CHAMPS)
5. Bills +126
6. Chiefs +111 (AFC champs)

2019 SEASON

1. Ravens +249
2. Pats +195
3. Niners +169 (NFC Champs)
4. Chiefs +143 (SB CHAMP)
5. Saints +117

2018 SEASON

1. Saints +151
2. Rams +143 (NFC Champs)
3. Chiefs +144
4. Bears +138
5. Pats +111 (SB CHAMPS)

2017 SEASON

1. Eagles +162 (SB CHAMPS)
2. Pats +162 (AFC champs)
3. Jaguars +149
4. Rams +148
5. Vikings +130

2016 SEASON

1. Pats +191 (SB CHAMPS)
2. Falcons +134 (NFC Champs)
3. Cowboys +115
4. Chiefs +78
5. Steelers +72

Obviously there are no guarantees and we have a lot of tough playoff football to play. But the Dallas Cowboys are in a good position to be a SB team based on recent history. They just have to get mentally and physically tough enough to do it.

Click to expand...

Bobhaze said:

Last October, I shared some info about how to reliably predict who will play in a SB. I updated again a few weeks ago, and NOW…here’s the final point differential numbers for the 2021 season:

THE FINAL TOP 6 IN POINT DIFFERENTIAL:

1. Bills +194
2. Cowboys +172
3. Patriots +159
4. Buccaneers +158
5. Chiefs +116
6. Rams +88

Why is it important? Since 2000, approximately 85% of teams playing in the conference championship and Super Bowls were in the top 10 in point differential. Last year, Tampa Bay was #1 in point differential and KC was 6th.

Lately, this is even more predictive of SB teams. The last 5 seasons, the teams in the top 1-6 of point differential are the ones consistently making the super bowl. In fact, 2015 was the last year a team not in the top six of PD won the SB, and it was that great Denver defense that won it that year.

HERE IS THE EVIDENCE OF THE IMPORTANCE OF PD FROM THE LAST 5 SEASONS:
2020 SEASON

1. Ravens +165
2. Saints +145
3. Pack +140
4. Bucs +137 (SB CHAMPS)
5. Bills +126
6. Chiefs +111 (AFC champs)

2019 SEASON

1. Ravens +249
2. Pats +195
3. Niners +169 (NFC Champs)
4. Chiefs +143 (SB CHAMP)
5. Saints +117

2018 SEASON

1. Saints +151
2. Rams +143 (NFC Champs)
3. Chiefs +144
4. Bears +138
5. Pats +111 (SB CHAMPS)

2017 SEASON

1. Eagles +162 (SB CHAMPS)
2. Pats +162 (AFC champs)
3. Jaguars +149
4. Rams +148
5. Vikings +130

2016 SEASON

1. Pats +191 (SB CHAMPS)
2. Falcons +134 (NFC Champs)
3. Cowboys +115
4. Chiefs +78
5. Steelers +72

Obviously there are no guarantees and we have a lot of tough playoff football to play. But the Dallas Cowboys are in a good position to be a SB team based on recent history. They just have to get mentally and physically tough enough to do it.

Click to expand...