CFZ Why Preseason Strength of Schedule predictions are a joke

Bobhaze

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Pre-season strength of schedule assessments are nothing more than click bait. Honestly, none of us knows how hard the schedule is going to be any given year. One prediction I can very confidently make- every single opponent on the schedule will be potentially very tough.

The NFL is not college football. Unlike college FB, the talent margin between a SB champ and a last place team is actually very thin. When Alabama lines up against Louisiana-Monroe this fall, it’s a guaranteed win. When the jaguars line up against the chiefs this year, they could win.

There are zero layups in NFL schedules. Look at all the upsets we had last year:
  • Early in the season, the Saints and their not so great D, shut out Brady and the defending champs 9-0.
  • The Jaguars beat the bills 9-6. I’m sure everyone saw that coming in preseason.
  • The 1-11-1 lions beating the 10-3 Cards 30-12.
  • The Texans beating the chargers 41-29 in week 16 when the chargers needed a win badly.
  • The jets led by former Cowboy Mike White beating the bengals and Joe Burrow 34-31.
  • The broncos curb stomped us 30-15 in week 8. We all saw that coming, right?
  • The Texans beating the red hot Titans in Nov- 22-14.
  • The really bad WFT beating the defending champ Bucs 29-19.
  • Remember the Colts complete collapse in week 18 vs the Jags? Colts had to have a win to get in the playoffs and lost 26-11.
  • The lions closed the season beating the pack 37-30.
Every one of those games were considered to be “easy wins” for the favored team. There are loads of upsets every year in the NFL. Even the defending SB champs lose games that they were supposed to win.

My annual prediction on the Cowboys schedule: There are no easy opponents.
 

CowboysFaninHouston

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its not that, those are upsets and upsets happen. the better comparison would be to compare strength of schedule in preseason, vs. after the season.
 
Bobhaze

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CowboysFaninHouston said:
its not that, those are upsets and upsets happen. the better comparison would be to compare strength of schedule in preseason, vs. after the season.
Click to expand...
For sure. It’s crazy to think we know what any NFL team is going to be this coming season when none of the draft picks or FAs have played a down with their new team yet.

Who predicted the 4 win 2020 bengals team would be the AFC champion bengals in 2021?
 
GMO415

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Actually, everytime Alabama lines up against the Aggies it's a sure thing, but then sometimes it isn't.
 
Reality

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Bobhaze said:
Pre-season strength of schedule assessments are nothing more than click bait. Honestly, none of us knows how hard the schedule is going to be any given year. One prediction I can very confidently make- every single opponent on the schedule will be potentially very tough.

The NFL is not college football. Unlike college FB, the talent margin between a SB champ and a last place team is actually very thin. When Alabama lines up against Louisiana-Monroe this fall, it’s a guaranteed win. When the jaguars line up against the chiefs this year, they could win.

There are zero layups in NFL schedules. Look at all the upsets we had last year:
  • Early in the season, the Saints and their not so great D, shut out Brady and the defending champs 9-0.
  • The Jaguars beat the bills 9-6. I’m sure everyone saw that coming in preseason.
  • The 1-11-1 lions beating the 10-3 Cards 30-12.
  • The Texans beating the chargers 41-29 in week 16 when the chargers needed a win badly.
  • The jets led by former Cowboy Mike White beating the bengals and Joe Burrow 34-31.
  • The broncos curb stomped us 30-15 in week 8. We all saw that coming, right?
  • The Texans beating the red hot Titans in Nov- 22-14.
  • The really bad WFT beating the defending champ Bucs 29-19.
  • Remember the Colts complete collapse in week 18 vs the Jags? Colts had to have a win to get in the playoffs and lost 26-11.
  • The lions closed the season beating the pack 37-30.
Every one of those games were considered to be “easy wins” for the favored team. There are loads of upsets every year in the NFL. Even the defending SB champs lose games that they were supposed to win.

My annual prediction on the Cowboys schedule: There are no easy opponents.
Click to expand...
Strength of schedule is only relevant at the end of a season once all of the games have been played and every teams' records are known.

It is basically a look-back stat because once the season ends, a lot of changes will happen for most teams between then and the next season.
 
EST_1986

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Bobhaze said:
For sure. It’s crazy to think we know what any NFL team is going to be this coming season when none of the draft picks or FAs have played a down with their new team yet.

Who predicted the 4 win 2020 bengals team would be the AFC champion bengals in 2021?
Click to expand...
Thats why its fun to talk about and fun to watch then talk about some more
 

kskboys

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Bobhaze said:
Pre-season strength of schedule assessments are nothing more than click bait. Honestly, none of us knows how hard the schedule is going to be any given year. One prediction I can very confidently make- every single opponent on the schedule will be potentially very tough.

The NFL is not college football. Unlike college FB, the talent margin between a SB champ and a last place team is actually very thin. When Alabama lines up against Louisiana-Monroe this fall, it’s a guaranteed win. When the jaguars line up against the chiefs this year, they could win.

There are zero layups in NFL schedules. Look at all the upsets we had last year:
  • Early in the season, the Saints and their not so great D, shut out Brady and the defending champs 9-0.
  • The Jaguars beat the bills 9-6. I’m sure everyone saw that coming in preseason.
  • The 1-11-1 lions beating the 10-3 Cards 30-12.
  • The Texans beating the chargers 41-29 in week 16 when the chargers needed a win badly.
  • The jets led by former Cowboy Mike White beating the bengals and Joe Burrow 34-31.
  • The broncos curb stomped us 30-15 in week 8. We all saw that coming, right?
  • The Texans beating the red hot Titans in Nov- 22-14.
  • The really bad WFT beating the defending champ Bucs 29-19.
  • Remember the Colts complete collapse in week 18 vs the Jags? Colts had to have a win to get in the playoffs and lost 26-11.
  • The lions closed the season beating the pack 37-30.
Every one of those games were considered to be “easy wins” for the favored team. There are loads of upsets every year in the NFL. Even the defending SB champs lose games that they were supposed to win.

My annual prediction on the Cowboys schedule: There are no easy opponents.
Click to expand...
Good stuff!! And I completely agree. I generally don't engage in strength of schedule stuff. I'm of the ilk that I prefer a tough schedule, and if we can't win enough to make the playoffs then we weren't good enough anyway!!

BTW, Saints have a very competent D, 7th in the NFL, and that's w/ a terrible O(28th).
 

kskboys

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Bobhaze said:
For sure. It’s crazy to think we know what any NFL team is going to be this coming season when none of the draft picks or FAs have played a down with their new team yet.

Who predicted the 4 win 2020 bengals team would be the AFC champion bengals in 2021?
Click to expand...
Maybe a few Bengals homers!!!!
 
Creeper

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I also think analysts sometime give too much credit for draft picks. Most rookies do not contribute that much in their first year. There are exceptions like Parsons, but ussualy they need a year to learn the speed and complexity of the pro game.
 
jazzcat22

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Most winning teams beat mostly losing teams on the schedule. But it only applies to Dallas that they can't beat winning teams. :laugh:
Therefore, SOS only applies to Dallas.
 
Bobhaze

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Creeper said:
I also think analysts sometime give too much credit for draft picks. Most rookies do not contribute that much in their first year. There are exceptions like Parsons, but ussualy they need a year to learn the speed and complexity of the pro game.
Click to expand...
Very true. Good FAs have a better chance of immediate impact. If a team drafts 7 players on average, they are lucky if 1-2 actually have a major impact in their first season.
 
john van brocklin

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Bobhaze said:
Pre-season strength of schedule assessments are nothing more than click bait. Honestly, none of us knows how hard the schedule is going to be any given year. One prediction I can very confidently make- every single opponent on the schedule will be potentially very tough.

The NFL is not college football. Unlike college FB, the talent margin between a SB champ and a last place team is actually very thin. When Alabama lines up against Louisiana-Monroe this fall, it’s a guaranteed win. When the jaguars line up against the chiefs this year, they could win.

There are zero layups in NFL schedules. Look at all the upsets we had last year:
  • Early in the season, the Saints and their not so great D, shut out Brady and the defending champs 9-0.
  • The Jaguars beat the bills 9-6. I’m sure everyone saw that coming in preseason.
  • The 1-11-1 lions beating the 10-3 Cards 30-12.
  • The Texans beating the chargers 41-29 in week 16 when the chargers needed a win badly.
  • The jets led by former Cowboy Mike White beating the bengals and Joe Burrow 34-31.
  • The broncos curb stomped us 30-15 in week 8. We all saw that coming, right?
  • The Texans beating the red hot Titans in Nov- 22-14.
  • The really bad WFT beating the defending champ Bucs 29-19.
  • Remember the Colts complete collapse in week 18 vs the Jags? Colts had to have a win to get in the playoffs and lost 26-11.
  • The lions closed the season beating the pack 37-30.
Every one of those games were considered to be “easy wins” for the favored team. There are loads of upsets every year in the NFL. Even the defending SB champs lose games that they were supposed to win.

My annual prediction on the Cowboys schedule: There are no easy opponents.
Click to expand...
Truth!!!!
 

kskboys

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jazzcat22 said:
Most winning teams beat mostly losing teams on the schedule. But it only applies to Dallas that they can't beat winning teams. :laugh:
Therefore, SOS only applies to Dallas.
Click to expand...
Most winning teams win because they are strong in the trenches!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Aerolithe_Lion

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On top of that, we don’t even need to see how it’ll play out; we already know many of these SoS numbers are bogus.

Is Seattle without Russ going to put up the same amount of wins? Is Denver with Russ going to lose the same amount of games? Cleveland with Deshaun? Tennessee without AJ? Philly with AJ? Indy with Matt Ryan? Steelers without Roethlisberger?

Every division has a clearly rising or regressing team, which is multiple games of opponent variance for every other team in said division.

Washington had a first place schedule in 2021 with Heinecke at QB. In 2022 they have a third place schedule with Wentz at QB.
 
Oz-of-Cowboy-Country

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Most things said in the off-season are stupid. Wether it be strength of schedule, draft grades or the arguments over best player available. None of it is as accurate as people make it out to be.
 
Jipper

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im more interested in the SOS against teams outside the NFCE honestly
 
G2

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Same with rankings before a game has even been played.
 
KJJ

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Strength of schedule is based on a teams record the previous season. Teams that were good last season might not be as good this season and vice versa. A 12-5 team last season may end up a 9-8 team this season. Jacksonville may end up being a much better football team this season but will be looked at as a weak opponent based on last years record. A teams performance can change as the season goes on. Take last year for example, the Cowboys weren’t nearly as good a team the second half of the season as they were the first half of the season.

You may catch a bad team when they’re starting to play good football. A team could lose three straight then all of a sudden string off five straight wins, that’s the NFL! No schedule is easy especially in a 17 game season. The Cowboys worst performance last season was against a struggling Denver team they were favored to beat. The Cowboys were so thoroughly beaten they were never the same team the rest of the season. One bad loss can derail your season. You can’t take any team for granted in the NFL. It’s always been in any given Sunday league and that will never change.
 
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