Aggressive Offense On Demand?

percyhoward · Jan 8, 2019

Sturm did an interesting piece for The Athletic in which he basically said that the only limitations that this offense has are self-inflicted and completely by design, and that the Cowboys "call a different offense when they feel compelled to do so. They want to get an early lead if possible, but then they seem willing to just shorten the game, eventually stepping on the gas as it gets late."

His article included the above chart showing that the Cowboys points per drive (which ranked 17th this year) ranked 6th in the 4th quarter. I wanted to see if this 4th-quarter explosion was because of more aggressive play calling, or simply the result of more successful plays.

15+yd targets by quarter
(as a percentage of total attempts)
1st Dal 12.8% NFL 17.2%
2nd Dal 14.6% NFL 18.3%
3rd Dal 9.2% NFL 17.4%
4th/OT Dal 18.9% NFL 18.6%
Late & Close Dal 25.7% NFL 20.0%

In the 1st quarter of games this season, Dak tried intermediate-to-deep passes on about 13% of his attempts, compared to about 17% for the league. Looking at the league percentages by quarter, you can see very little variance. The increase in the 2nd and 4th quarters is predictable, because teams are more likely to throw deeper at the end of each quarter to try to get a score when the clock is a factor.

Dallas' percentages trailed the rest of the league in each of the first three quarters, then in the 4th quarter/OT the Cowboys actually tried more of these passes than the league average. I think this would surprise most people.

When the score margin was 8 points or less in the 4th quarter or overtime, the Cowboys tried twice as many intermediate-to-deep passes as they did in the 1st quarter. It's normal to have more such passes in a late & close situation, but it's unusual to have so many more. I'm not going to figure the percentages for 32 teams, but that 25.7% is way ahead of the league average, meaning that Dallas is almost certainly within the top 5.

I wouldn't go as far as saying their only limitations are by design, but Sturm's not exaggerating when he says they're a "different offense" late in games -- especially close games.

Late & Close 15+yd targets
(as a percentage of total attempts)
Wilson 29.9%
Brady 27.7%
Prescott 25.7%
Rthlsbrgr 22.2%
Rodgers 21.6%
Brees 21.3%
Ryan 20.5%
Watson 18.9%
Mahomes 18.8%
Goff 16.4%
Wentz 13.9%
Luck 11.8%
Rivers 10.9%

gmoney112 · Jan 8, 2019

Interesting. Against the Seahawks, we really didn't run many Cover 3 beating route concepts until the 4th quarter.

I'm not really sure what to make of it.

JBS · Jan 8, 2019

I've been telling people this for weeks..it's amazing to me that people dont pick up on these things...for as much love as the defense gets, and don't get me wrong, they're good...the offense protects them by design

JBS · Jan 8, 2019

I remember Tony commenting after a loss (I believe) that the offense had a play set up late to win the game that he clearly believed would have been successful..but if I recall correctly, the offense didn't get the ball back...it's entirely possible that the entire offense is designed around being conservative early, and firing it's big bullets late

punchnjudy · Jan 8, 2019

Banging heads with Zeke (and our line) for 3 quarters would be tiring. Perhaps late in the game they feel like they've taken the edge off the opponent's pass rush.

And in most games that were within 8 points in the 4th, our offense had probably enjoyed at least a decent amount of success moving the football.

percyhoward · Jan 8, 2019

punchnjudy said:
And in most games that were within 8 points in the 4th...

13 games.

gmoney112 · Jan 8, 2019

JBS said:
I remember Tony commenting after a loss (I believe) that the offense had a play set up late to win the game that he clearly believed would have been successful but if I recall correctly, the offense didn't get the ball back...it's entirely possible that the entire offense is designed around being conservative early, and firing it's big bullets late

It's hard to say. If it's planned/strategic, it has its merits, but it's a dangerous road.

I'm also more of the opinion that the whole goal of an offense is to attack, and to attack the adjustments that the defense will inevitably make. This is what Belichek has done well for so long, and Brady is basically his co-brain. They've targeted your weaknesses, and anticipate your adjustments to their initial plan. If they see you adjusted to what they rolled out, you're going to see them take shots exactly where the adjustment is weakest. A lot of their big plays are perfect counters to adjustments defensive coordinators made.

Which begs the question, if we get behind early, and have to roll out these attacks that'd normally be in the 4th, are we able to keep attacking weaknesses when they're adjusting to our initial "aggressive" plan?

The Giants and Eagles were fun games, but I don't really know if that was precision in playcalling or just divisional backyard football.

Shrug. We'll inevitably find out against the Rams, Saints, or Eagles if they're playing at a high level and beat NO.

Willfreedom909 · Jan 8, 2019

So basically Dak is elite as hell its just play design holds him back from beasting in the first 3 quarters s

Willfreedom909 · Jan 8, 2019

JBS said:
I remember Tony commenting after a loss (I believe) that the offense had a play set up late to win the game that he clearly believed would have been successful..but if I recall correctly, the offense didn't get the ball back...it's entirely possible that the entire offense is designed around being conservative early, and firing it's big bullets late

I believe this is true. It also shows how much trust the coaches have in Dak though to be able to command an offense in dire crunch time.

JBS · Jan 8, 2019

gmoney112 said:
It's hard to say. If it's planned/strategic, it has its merits, but it's a dangerous road.

I'm also more of the opinion that the whole goal of an offense is to attack, and to attack the adjustments that the defense will inevitably make. This is what Belichek has done well for so long, and Brady is basically his co-brain. They've targeted your weaknesses, and anticipate your adjustments to their initial plan. If they see you adjusted to what they rolled out, you're going to see them take shots exactly where the adjustment is weakest. A lot of their big plays are perfect counters to adjustments defensive coordinators made.

Which begs the question, if we get behind early, and have to roll out these attacks that'd normally be in the 4th, are we able to keep attacking weaknesses when they're adjusting to our initial "aggressive" plan?

The Giants and Eagles were fun games, but I don't really know if that was precision in playcalling or just divisional backyard football.

Shrug. We'll inevitably find out against the Rams, Saints, or Eagles if they're playing at a high level and beat NO.

This is where people are wrong..this is a league where just about every game comes down to the wire..doesn't matter who plays who..the margins are fine..it's not a risky plan when you dominate top..you can only fall behind so far when the other team barely has the ball..if it were such a risky tactic, it would have backfired numerous times by now

percyhoward · Jan 8, 2019

gmoney112 said:
Which begs the question, if we get behind early, and have to roll out these attacks that'd normally be in the 4th, are we able to keep attacking weaknesses when they're adjusting to our initial "aggressive" plan?

Right. How much does the style employed in the first three quarters benefit the success of the style employed in the 4th?

BAT · Jan 8, 2019

JBS said:
I remember Tony commenting after a loss (I believe) that the offense had a play set up late to win the game that he clearly believed would have been successful..but if I recall correctly, the offense didn't get the ball back...it's entirely possible that the entire offense is designed around being conservative early, and firing it's big bullets late

Playing not to lose philosophy, until 4th/OT.

Dale · Jan 8, 2019

JBS said:
This is where people are wrong..this is a league where just about every game comes down to the wire..doesn't matter who plays who..the margins are fine..it's not a risky plan when you dominate top..you can only fall behind so far when the other team barely has the ball..if it were such a risky tactic, it would have backfired numerous times by now

It is a very calculated risk in that sense, the same way playing physical coverage is knowing the refs won’t repeatedly penalize you. Very interesting data.

Dale · Jan 8, 2019

percyhoward said:
Right. How much does the style employed in the first three quarters benefit the success of the style employed in the 4th?

Everyone here loves talking about what their eyes see during a game, and my eyes see Zeke and Dak as a pairing made in heaven. I think the answer to your question about illustrates as much, as my answer would be that the style of the first three quarters compared to the fourth quarter success have a symbiotic relationship.

Parcells4Life · Jan 8, 2019

percyhoward said:
Sturm did an interesting piece for The Athletic in which he basically said that the only limitations that this offense has are self-inflicted and completely by design, and that the Cowboys "call a different offense when they feel compelled to do so. They want to get an early lead if possible, but then they seem willing to just shorten the game, eventually stepping on the gas as it gets late."

His article included the above chart showing that the Cowboys points per drive (which ranked 17th this year) ranked 6th in the 4th quarter. I wanted to see if this 4th-quarter explosion was because of more aggressive play calling, or simply the result of more successful plays.

15+yd targets by quarter
(as a percentage of total attempts)
1st Dal 12.8% NFL 17.2%
2nd Dal 14.6% NFL 18.3%
3rd Dal 9.2% NFL 17.4%
4th/OT Dal 18.9% NFL 18.6%
Late & Close Dal 25.7% NFL 20.0%

In the 1st quarter of games this season, Dak tried intermediate-to-deep passes on about 13% of his attempts, compared to about 17% for the league. Looking at the league percentages by quarter, you can see very little variance. The increase in the 2nd and 4th quarters is predictable, because teams are more likely to throw deeper at the end of each quarter to try to get a score when the clock is a factor.

Dallas' percentages trailed the rest of the league in each of the first three quarters, then in the 4th quarter/OT the Cowboys actually tried more of these passes than the league average. I think this would surprise most people.

When the score margin was 8 points or less in the 4th quarter or overtime, the Cowboys tried twice as many intermediate-to-deep passes as they did in the 1st quarter. It's normal to have more such passes in a late & close situation, but it's unusual to have so many more. I'm not going to figure the percentages for 32 teams, but that 25.7% is way ahead of the league average, meaning that Dallas is almost certainly within the top 5.

I wouldn't go as far as saying their only limitations are by design, but Sturm's not exaggerating when he says they're a "different offense" late in games -- especially close games.

Late & Close 15+yd targets
(as a percentage of total attempts)
Wilson 29.9%
Brady 27.7%
Prescott 25.7%
Rthlsbrgr 22.2%
Rodgers 21.6%
Brees 21.3%
Ryan 20.5%
Watson 18.9%
Mahomes 18.8%
Goff 16.4%
Wentz 13.9%
Luck 11.8%
Rivers 10.9%

This is a fancy way of showing what we all see. Linehan starts aggressive then goes into a lull in 2nd through midway 3rd then aggressive Dak comes back.

The 3rd and 4th quarters have been eerily similar to the 90s offenses. Get those drives when you really need them.

Melonfeud · Jan 8, 2019

percyhoward said:
Sturm did an interesting piece for The Athletic in which he basically said that the only limitations that this offense has are self-inflicted and completely by design, and that the Cowboys "call a different offense when they feel compelled to do so. They want to get an early lead if possible, but then they seem willing to just shorten the game, eventually stepping on the gas as it gets late."

His article included the above chart showing that the Cowboys points per drive (which ranked 17th this year) ranked 6th in the 4th quarter. I wanted to see if this 4th-quarter explosion was because of more aggressive play calling, or simply the result of more successful plays.

15+yd targets by quarter
(as a percentage of total attempts)
1st Dal 12.8% NFL 17.2%
2nd Dal 14.6% NFL 18.3%
3rd Dal 9.2% NFL 17.4%
4th/OT Dal 18.9% NFL 18.6%
Late & Close Dal 25.7% NFL 20.0%

In the 1st quarter of games this season, Dak tried intermediate-to-deep passes on about 13% of his attempts, compared to about 17% for the league. Looking at the league percentages by quarter, you can see very little variance. The increase in the 2nd and 4th quarters is predictable, because teams are more likely to throw deeper at the end of each quarter to try to get a score when the clock is a factor.

Dallas' percentages trailed the rest of the league in each of the first three quarters, then in the 4th quarter/OT the Cowboys actually tried more of these passes than the league average. I think this would surprise most people.

When the score margin was 8 points or less in the 4th quarter or overtime, the Cowboys tried twice as many intermediate-to-deep passes as they did in the 1st quarter. It's normal to have more such passes in a late & close situation, but it's unusual to have so many more. I'm not going to figure the percentages for 32 teams, but that 25.7% is way ahead of the league average, meaning that Dallas is almost certainly within the top 5.

I wouldn't go as far as saying their only limitations are by design, but Sturm's not exaggerating when he says they're a "different offense" late in games -- especially close games.

Late & Close 15+yd targets
(as a percentage of total attempts)
Wilson 29.9%
Brady 27.7%
Prescott 25.7%
Rthlsbrgr 22.2%
Rodgers 21.6%
Brees 21.3%
Ryan 20.5%
Watson 18.9%
Mahomes 18.8%
Goff 16.4%
Wentz 13.9%
Luck 11.8%
Rivers 10.9%

The sole salient feature that I'm forced to take away from the perusal of this finely defined & impressively detailed case analysis of leaguewide averages
( Fantastic ,good piece of work,Percy,b.t.w.) ,is the markedly vast uptick of percentage points this offense is continually riding drag on, behind the rest of the herd ,and while 'their' schemes ,definitely are not in concordance of parallel to our "usually" gamed scheme,,,the over all plan is to dominate on the scoreboard,,,and ,,,well,Hell,fellers ! Yer' just gonna have to "quick draw& strike" that end zone bullseye per targeted periods of play,,, our #4 wouldn't be required to tote that
" fragile " Mr. Clutch Heavy load upon him,,,I.E. start hitting/connecting with them wide out & open deep targets yer' avg. 3 per game missed targets on, #4,come on Bro! We all KNOW, that you can cut those 3 bombs away/ off target
( when they are taken) in HALF, immediately, from right upstairs in yer wheelhouse.

Klingo3034 · Jan 9, 2019

Prefer they put points as much as possible and earliest as possible. Don't want an Aaron Rodgers situation with comebacks. Dak is not the only one that can clutch. Had Cowboys score a 3 instead of 7, Russell Wilson would have made that clutch td and Cowboys be sent home again.

Vtwin · Jan 9, 2019

Am I the only one who sighed when at the end of a beautiful opening drive that got us well into the redzone we ran on both second and long and third and long settling for a field goal?

QuincyCarterEra · Jan 9, 2019

So we can put to rest the whole "Dak and dunk" BS finally? Or is that myth still going to stick around?

Zman5 · Jan 9, 2019

I think the part of the plan is to protect the defense. Our defense is predicated on playing with 110% effort. Our defense can't sustain that type of style for full 4 quarters. This is why our defense is 26th in scoring in 4th quarter.

I think the plan is to start aggressive, then protect the ball and have long drives by being conservative and depending on the game situation play more aggressive at the end or just finish the game out with Zeke if we are leading by multiple scores.

That's how this team has been built to play.

Aggressive Offense On Demand?

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I Copy!,,, er,,,I guess,,,ah,,,maybe.

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