1 Week to go...

[CowboysLaw87]

We currently have the 4th pick after our loss and Baltimore's win.

The highest we can climb after this week is #2 (with a loss, and a SD and Cleveland win).

The lowest we can fall to is #8 (with a win and losses by SF, Jacksonville, Miami and Baltimore).

 

[Killerinstinct]

We currently have the 4th pick after our loss and Baltimore's win.

The highest we can climb after this week is #2 (with a loss, and a SD and Cleveland win).

The lowest we can fall to is #8 (with a win and losses by SF, Jacksonville, Miami and Baltimore).

Getting to 3 is important. There is a huge difference between the value of pick 3 and 4.

It is unlikely SD or Cle will win but SD SOS could top ours. If Den Wins tonight they are a 2X opponent of SD and that would increase their SOS. Then next weeks games are crucial. Of Course we have to lose.

 

[CowboysLaw87]

Getting to 3 is important. There is a huge difference between the value of pick 3 and 4.

It is unlikely SD or Cle will win but SD SOS could top ours. If Den Wins tonight they are a 2X opponent of SD and that would increase their SOS. Then next weeks games are crucial. Of Course we have to lose.

Great point. If Denver wins tonight, then SD will have just 1 collective win on their schedule more than us. Problem is it is VERY difficult to make up ground next week. With all divisional games, there are only 2 games on the schedule where we can make up ground. The problem is that our 2 games are GB hosting Minny and Seattle @ AZ. San Diego's is Jax @ Houston and Miami hosting New England.

If we can get a Minnesota & AZ win, we'd just need one of Jax & Miami to win to force a coin flip for the #3 pick. Of course, all assuming we lose. (Brain explodes...)

 

[Killerinstinct]

Great point. If Denver wins tonight, then SD will have just 1 collective win on their schedule more than us. Problem is it is VERY difficult to make up ground next week. With all divisional games, there are only 2 games on the schedule where we can make up ground. The problem is that our 2 games are GB hosting Minny and Seattle @ AZ. San Diego's is Jax @ Houston and Miami hosting New England.

If we can get a Minnesota & AZ win, we'd just need one of Jax & Miami to win to force a coin flip for the #3 pick. Of course, all assuming we lose. (Brain explodes...)

I'm not sure I understand. IF SD has one more collective win on their schedule than us then why would we need to make up ground? We would have the lower SOS at that point. Plus next week SD plays Den and if Den wins tonight and next week then we should have the lower SOS. Am I missing something?

 

[manster4ever]

Lil' Dan wants to keep the pedal to the metal....so, it looks like they'll play all their guys:

http://washington.cbslocal.com/2015/12/28/snider-Commanders-cant-afford-to-rest-for-playoffs/

 

[JoeyBoy718]

Getting to 3 is important. There is a huge difference between the value of pick 3 and 4.

It is unlikely SD or Cle will win but SD SOS could top ours. If Den Wins tonight they are a 2X opponent of SD and that would increase their SOS. Then next weeks games are crucial. Of Course we have to lose.

Good point. I didn't think about that. Hoping Denver wins tonight.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

I'm not sure I understand. IF SD has one more collective win on their schedule than us then why would we need to make up ground? We would have the lower SOS at that point. Plus next week SD plays Den and if Den wins tonight and next week then we should have the lower SOS. Am I missing something?

I think we have one more collective win. Our SOS is .529 and theirs is .523, but you make a good point about Denver winning tonight. That might be enough for us to jump San Diego.

 

[Killerinstinct]

I think we have one more collective win. Our SOS is .529 and theirs is .523, but you make a good point about Denver winning tonight. That might be enough for us to jump San Diego.

Theirs moved up to 525. I thought it would be more of a move if a 2X opponent won a game.

 

[CowboysLaw87]

I'm not sure I understand. IF SD has one more collective win on their schedule than us then why would we need to make up ground? We would have the lower SOS at that point. Plus next week SD plays Den and if Den wins tonight and next week then we should have the lower SOS. Am I missing something?

Sorry I meant to say 1 collective win LESS thank us. Denver won, so that's the case. If AZ beats Seattle and Minny beats GB, we have a reasonable shot at #3 even if SD loses. Very well could see a coin flip for #3 in that scenario.

 

[AzorAhai]

Sorry I meant to say 1 collective win LESS thank us. Denver won, so that's the case. If AZ beats Seattle and Minny beats GB, we have a reasonable shot at #3 even if SD loses. Very well could see a coin flip for #3 in that scenario.

Division and Conference record is the next tie breaker after SOS. How so they compare in that area? Coin flip would only be necessary if SOS and division and conference records are equal.

Edit: just looked and SD is 0-5 in their division. Theres no way the Cowboys would have to flip with them. For the Cowboys to get to 3rd, they need to have a worse SOS. A tie will go to SD.

Moving up to 3rd would be huge actually. As it stands now, SF could just jump us to get to 3 for Goff. It wouldn't cost near as much to do and SD would probably be eager to do that if Tunsil is still on the board since SF would be going after a QB and we have zero need for another OT that high.if we're at 3, SF would have to jump up to 1st overall which is going to be very expensive. Probably 2 1sts, a 2nd and maybe a 3rd. Not sure SF would be willing to do that.