CFZ 4th Round Pick of Cowboys since 2000

[Jumbo075]

Here is how the Cowboys have used their 4th round picks since 2000:

• 2000 CB Kareem Larrimore
• 2001 LB Markus Steele
• 2002 FB Jamar Martin
• 2003 LB Bradie James**
• 2004 CB Bruce Thornton
• 2005 RB Marion Barber III**++, DE Chris Canty**
• 2006 WR Skyler Green
• 2007 QB Isaiah Stanback, OT Doug Free**
• 2008 RB Tashard Choice
• 2009 QB Stephen McGee, LB Victor Butler, DE Brandon Williams
• 2010 S Akwasa Owusu-Ansah
• 2011 OG David Arkin
• 2012 LB Kyle Wilbur, S Matt Johnson
• 2013 CB B.W. Webb
• 2014 LB Anthony Hitchens**
• 2015 LB Damien Wilson**
• 2016 DE Charles Tapper, QB Dak Prescott**++
• 2017 Ryan Switzer
• 2018 DE Dorance Armstrong**, Dalton Schultz**
• 2019 Tony Pollard**++
• 2020 CB Reggie Robinson, OC Tyler Biadasz**++
• 2021 LB Jabril Cox, OT Josh Ball
• 2022 Jake Ferguson**
• 2023 DE Viliami Fehoko
• 2024 QB Trey Lance

** Cowboys starter
++ Pro Bowl player

34 players in 25 seasons has produced 11 starters (32.3%) of which 4 (11.8%) became Pro Bowl players. There is only a 1 in 8 chance any 4th round pick becomes a Pro Bowl player, and a 1 in 3 chance a 4th round pick becomes a starter.

Do you still think the Cowboys are risking too much in their trade for QB Trey Lance? Worst case scenario, he’s Reggie Robinson or David Arkin who never played a down for the Cowboys. Best case is Pro Bowl player.

It is true that lately the Cowboys have been doing better with there 4th round picks since 2014 - producing 8 starters and 3 Pro Bowl players. Maybe that has skewed some fans on the historical value of 4th round picks. Food for thought.

 

[Havic]

Nice work put in there. We've hit on a lot of 4th round picks but most teams do not. This was a good trade. Low risk high reward potential.

 

[nyc-cowboy]

Thats why we should have given them a 2nd.

 

[Adiba1977]

Mostly bad players. dont care about 4th round picks at all. Keep trading.

 

[ThatJerryKid]

Thats why we should have given them a 2nd.

 

[CT Dal Fan]

Thats why we should have given them a 2nd.

A 2nd for Lance if they threw in linebacker Fred Warner, and I'm in on that deal

 

[ThatJerryKid]

This is how I look at it. That Cowboys were interested in drafting a developmental QB last year. The were linked to Duggan and a few others. But the round and value never lined up. They would have been in the market next year as well. Just assume that Lance is our 4th round pick next year. Are we going to find a more talented developmental QB in the 4th round?

 

[CT Dal Fan]

This is how I look at it. That Cowboys were interested in drafting a developmental QB last year. The were linked to Duggan and a few others. But the round and value never lined up. They would have been in the market next year as well. Just assume that Lance is our 4th round pick next year. Are we going to find a more talented developmental QB in the 4th round?

You are 100 percent correct and that is what this trade is all about. Unfortunately this board is split on two fronts: "Lance sucks and the Cowboys overpaid" or "Lance is the savior of the franchise and goodbye Dak".

Two extreme overreactions, and two extremely wrong premises.

 

[DallasEast]

Thats why we should have given them a 2nd.

 

[CowboysLakerBamaFan]

I think we should trade our 4th rd picks in '24, '25, '26 and '27 to SanFran as well...for Sam Darnold.... the 3rd overall pick in his draft.

4th round picks are useless....and acquiring 2 Top 5 bust QBs instead of 1 Top 5 bust QB, DOUBLES our chances of one of these guys actually becoming a competent NFL QB, from 1 in a million, to 2 in a million.

Gotta play the odds! Besides...those four 4th rounders will likely only add one or two starters to our team...as well as a cheap backup or two.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Here is how the Cowboys have used their 4th round picks since 2000:

• 2000 CB Kareem Larrimore
• 2001 LB Markus Steele
• 2002 FB Jamar Martin
• 2003 LB Bradie James**
• 2004 CB Bruce Thornton
• 2005 RB Marion Barber III**++, DE Chris Canty**
• 2006 WR Skyler Green
• 2007 QB Isaiah Stanback, OT Doug Free**
• 2008 RB Tashard Choice
• 2009 QB Stephen McGee, LB Victor Butler, DE Brandon Williams
• 2010 S Akwasa Owusu-Ansah
• 2011 OG David Arkin
• 2012 LB Kyle Wilbur, S Matt Johnson
• 2013 CB B.W. Webb
• 2014 LB Anthony Hitchens**
• 2015 LB Damien Wilson**
• 2016 DE Charles Tapper, QB Dak Prescott**++
• 2017 Ryan Switzer
• 2018 DE Dorance Armstrong**, Dalton Schultz**
• 2019 Tony Pollard**++
• 2020 CB Reggie Robinson, OC Tyler Biadasz**++
• 2021 LB Jabril Cox, OT Josh Ball
• 2022 Jake Ferguson**
• 2023 DE Viliami Fehoko
• 2024 QB Trey Lance

** Cowboys starter
++ Pro Bowl player

34 players in 25 seasons has produced 11 starters (32.3%) of which 4 (11.8%) became Pro Bowl players. There is only a 1 in 8 chance any 4th round pick becomes a Pro Bowl player, and a 1 in 3 chance a 4th round pick becomes a starter.

Do you still think the Cowboys are risking too much in their trade for QB Trey Lance? Worst case scenario, he’s Reggie Robinson or David Arkin who never played a down for the Cowboys. Best case is Pro Bowl player.

It is true that lately the Cowboys have been doing better with there 4th round picks since 2014 - producing 8 starters and 3 Pro Bowl players. Maybe that has skewed some fans on the historical value of 4th round picks. Food for thought.

I like those odds a whole lot better than the odds of Lance working out. He's a guy who played one season in college, four years ago. In his 3rd NFL season, he couldn't beat out Sam Darnold as primary backup. The 49ers are a competent organization. Sure, there's a chance he can still turn into something, I just think that chance is far lower than 1 in 8.

I'm struggling to think of a comparable situation where it worked out. Alex Smith is the only name that comes to mind, but he was starting the whole time even before he made his leap. Is there a better example? Not guys who sat and developed in place until they became the starter. a la Romo or Rodgers. Top-drafted guys who were given up on by their team and went on to be successful elsewhere.

 

[kskboys]

This is how I look at it. That Cowboys were interested in drafting a developmental QB last year. The were linked to Duggan and a few others. But the round and value never lined up. They would have been in the market next year as well. Just assume that Lance is our 4th round pick next year. Are we going to find a more talented developmental QB in the 4th round?

That's not real hard. There were several in this last draft alone. 4th rounder Aidan O'Connel played very well for LV tonite, BTW.

 

[kskboys]

I like those odds a whole lot better than the odds of Lance working out. He's a guy who played one season in college, four years ago. In his 3rd NFL season, he couldn't beat out Sam Darnold as primary backup. The 49ers are a competent organization. Sure, there's a chance he can still turn into something, I just think that chance is far lower than 1 in 8.

I'm struggling to think of a comparable situation where it worked out. Alex Smith is the only name that comes to mind, but he was starting the whole time even before he made his leap. Is there a better example? Not guys who sat and developed in place until they became the starter. a la Romo or Rodgers. Top-drafted guys who were given up on by their team and went on to be successful elsewhere.

Like you, I'm struggling to find even one. Jeff George wasn't too bad, I guess, later in his career. Never top 10 type tho.

 

[kskboys]

You are 100 percent correct and that is what this trade is all about. Unfortunately this board is split on two fronts: "Lance sucks and the Cowboys overpaid" or "Lance is the savior of the franchise and goodbye Dak".

Two extreme overreactions, and two extremely wrong premises.

Can't disagree.

I don't care for the trade myself, but it was only a 4th, so I can live w/ it.

 

[Jumbo075]

I like those odds a whole lot better than the odds of Lance working out. He's a guy who played one season in college, four years ago. In his 3rd NFL season, he couldn't beat out Sam Darnold as primary backup. The 49ers are a competent organization. Sure, there's a chance he can still turn into something, I just think that chance is far lower than 1 in 8.

I'm struggling to think of a comparable situation where it worked out. Alex Smith is the only name that comes to mind, but he was starting the whole time even before he made his leap. Is there a better example? Not guys who sat and developed in place until they became the starter. a la Romo or Rodgers. Top-drafted guys who were given up on by their team and went on to be successful elsewhere.

Jim Plunkett was the #1 overall pick in 1971 by the New England Patriots after winning the 1970 Heisman Trophy. He won AFC Rookie of the Year in 1971, but then became a bust in New England spending 5 years there. Then he played 2 years in San Francisco and did nothing. Finally, he went to the Raiders, and won 2 Super Bowls in 1980 and 1983 was Super Bowl MVP in 1980.

Here is an example of East Coast bias when it comes to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Plunkett flamed out in Boston. Later he won two Super Bowls. He is the ONLY 2-time Super Bowl winning QB that is not in the Pro Football Hall of Fame - because east coast sports writers won’t vote for him because he didn’t win in New England.

 

[Adreme]

Here is how the Cowboys have used their 4th round picks since 2000:

• 2000 CB Kareem Larrimore
• 2001 LB Markus Steele
• 2002 FB Jamar Martin
• 2003 LB Bradie James**
• 2004 CB Bruce Thornton
• 2005 RB Marion Barber III**++, DE Chris Canty**
• 2006 WR Skyler Green
• 2007 QB Isaiah Stanback, OT Doug Free**
• 2008 RB Tashard Choice
• 2009 QB Stephen McGee, LB Victor Butler, DE Brandon Williams
• 2010 S Akwasa Owusu-Ansah
• 2011 OG David Arkin
• 2012 LB Kyle Wilbur, S Matt Johnson
• 2013 CB B.W. Webb
• 2014 LB Anthony Hitchens**
• 2015 LB Damien Wilson**
• 2016 DE Charles Tapper, QB Dak Prescott**++
• 2017 Ryan Switzer
• 2018 DE Dorance Armstrong**, Dalton Schultz**
• 2019 Tony Pollard**++
• 2020 CB Reggie Robinson, OC Tyler Biadasz**++
• 2021 LB Jabril Cox, OT Josh Ball
• 2022 Jake Ferguson**
• 2023 DE Viliami Fehoko
• 2024 QB Trey Lance

** Cowboys starter
++ Pro Bowl player

34 players in 25 seasons has produced 11 starters (32.3%) of which 4 (11.8%) became Pro Bowl players. There is only a 1 in 8 chance any 4th round pick becomes a Pro Bowl player, and a 1 in 3 chance a 4th round pick becomes a starter.

Do you still think the Cowboys are risking too much in their trade for QB Trey Lance? Worst case scenario, he’s Reggie Robinson or David Arkin who never played a down for the Cowboys. Best case is Pro Bowl player.

It is true that lately the Cowboys have been doing better with there 4th round picks since 2014 - producing 8 starters and 3 Pro Bowl players. Maybe that has skewed some fans on the historical value of 4th round picks. Food for thought.

If he is a pro bowl player it won’t be here. There is no scenario where he is anything but the backup the next 2 years then walks in free agency. That is his future. That is the “best” case scenario.

 

[HungryLion]

I like those odds a whole lot better than the odds of Lance working out. He's a guy who played one season in college, four years ago. In his 3rd NFL season, he couldn't beat out Sam Darnold as primary backup. The 49ers are a competent organization. Sure, there's a chance he can still turn into something, I just think that chance is far lower than 1 in 8.

I'm struggling to think of a comparable situation where it worked out. Alex Smith is the only name that comes to mind, but he was starting the whole time even before he made his leap. Is there a better example? Not guys who sat and developed in place until they became the starter. a la Romo or Rodgers. Top-drafted guys who were given up on by their team and went on to be successful elsewhere.

I think the issue is unique in that it was a completely wrong circumstance for Lance to be in with the 49ers.

Due to Lance’s limited college experience, against low level college competition, he really need to go to a team that HAD a QB in place and where he could just be stashed as a developmental guy for a few years. Ala GB with Jordan Love and Rodgers back in the day, etc.

The 49ers are ready to WIN NOW. That’s why Purdy makes sense and Barkley behind him as they have far more experience than Lance does. Purdy started all 4 years in college.

A QB as raw as Lance needs to be where he can literally just sit a couple more years on a roster, working on developing.

Will it work now if given that chance? Who knows. But worth a try.

 

[rambo2]

The 4th round pick that they traded will be at the very back of the round. It isn't a big loss.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I like those odds a whole lot better than the odds of Lance working out. He's a guy who played one season in college, four years ago. In his 3rd NFL season, he couldn't beat out Sam Darnold as primary backup. The 49ers are a competent organization. Sure, there's a chance he can still turn into something, I just think that chance is far lower than 1 in 8.

I'm struggling to think of a comparable situation where it worked out. Alex Smith is the only name that comes to mind, but he was starting the whole time even before he made his leap. Is there a better example? Not guys who sat and developed in place until they became the starter. a la Romo or Rodgers. Top-drafted guys who were given up on by their team and went on to be successful elsewhere.

Off the top of my head Geno Smith, Alex Smith, Rich Gannon, Drew Brees, and Sam Darnold all come to mind.

 

[T-RO]

Jim Plunkett was the #1 overall pick in 1971 by the New England Patriots ...Finally, he went to the Raiders, and won

Plunkett is a good example. And maybe one could say Goff has worked out after getting dumped. Unfortunately for every one of those there are 10 where it doesn't work out...where a top-pick QB gets a chance elsewhere and it doesn't work.

Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen, Wentz, Haskins, Dobbs, Gabbert, Leaf, Trubisky...so many more.

Off the top of my head Geno Smith, Alex Smith, Rich Gannon, Drew Brees, and Sam Darnold all come to mind.

Huh? Darnold is on his third team and is a backup on a one-year contract. He's a bust relative to his draft spot.

Brees was drafted 32nd. He was so-so in San Diego, not a bust, before getting traded.

Gannon was a 4th round pick and was a journeyman. Started 3 full years for Vikings. He doesn't compare at all.