TruBlueCowboy
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So ya think kickers matter? I know it's impossible to predict exactly how a game would have unfolded with different scores, but here is a fun scenario.
Imagine that Vanderjagt was the kicker last year. Assume he kicked with his career averages at various distances:
1 to 19 yarders: 6 of 6 (100%)
20 to 29 yarders: 70 of 72 (97%)
30 to 39 yarders: 62 of 68 (91%)
40 to 49 yarders: 65 of 81 (80%)
50+ yarders: 14 of 21 (67%)
Vanderjagt has a 99.4% completion rate on extra points so we will also assume that he makes all of these after every touchdown. We're also going to assume Parcells kicked FGs just like he did with last year's kickers although it's obvious he'd have a lot more faith in the kicking game with Vanderjagt starting. Basically, treat this like your annoying college economics professor. ("Assume we have equal distances, equal demand, equal supply, an equal proportion of Buddhist left-handers that live in 2-story houses, etc...")
We'll use this convenient website (http://www.mdani.demon.co.uk/para/random.htm) to randomly generate a number from 1 to 100 and as long as the result is within Vanderjagt's career average, in this hypothetical 2005 scenario, the field goal is GOOD!
For any of you folks who think the Cowboys aren't contenders, if you attempt to read this long whopper of a post, you'll find that it's amazing what could have happened in 2005 with just one meager position change. So here we go, 2005 with Mike "Vanderdrunk" as our kicker. Anticipation is high!
Week 1 @ San Diego Chargers
The Cowboys don't attempt a single field goal, Bledsoe starts out on fire, and Vanderjagt makes all 4 XP attempts. Just like in real life, the Cowboys win 28-24. They are now 1-0.
Week 2 Washington Commanders
Vandy attempts a 41 yard FG in the 1st quarter, one that was originally missed by Jose Cortez. And the attempt is... GOOD! In the 2nd quarter, in a hard fought defensive battle, Vandy lands a 33 yarder just like his counterpart did in the real 2005 season. Bledsoe completes that awesome 70 yard flea flicker to Terry Glenn and then Vandy nails a 41 yard FG that Cortez also managed to hit. Cortez and Vandy have similar performances but the big difference is the score is now 16-0 instead of 13-0 as the Skins begin their fabled MNF comeback with 5:51 on the clock. Brunell completes to Santana Moss with 3:55 left but with the lead 16 points this time instead of 13, Gibbs knows that he has to go for the 2 points. Since the NFL average success rate for 2-point conversions is 43% (at least the most recent one I could find), we'll roll the random number generator with that number as the target. Doh! Gibbs makes it. Not long after this, the Commanders once again complete another Sportscenter highlight to Santana Moss and Gibbs is forced to go for the 2 points again with barely 2 minutes on the clock. And the play is stopped!! Momentum instantly shifts! The Cowboys still have to run out the clock, and the Skins can threaten with a FG, but we're going to assume God looks down upon the Cowboys today, and they win a close one 16-14. Their record is now 2-0.
Week 3 @ San Francisco 49ers
Not only does Dallas not attempt a FG, but the "Larry Allen shaking Jose Cortez like a human bobblehead" episode never occurs since Vandy doesn't miss his XP. Plus, with one more point, the game never becomes as close as it did in real life when the 49ers tried to get within field goal range to tie the game and were only stopped when Dat Nguyen had a game winning interception. Final score 35-31. The Cowboys are rolling at 3-0!
Week 4 @ Oakland Raiders
In a game in which the Cowboys were always playing catchup, Vandy easily succeeds with both FGs that Cortez also managed to make, but is never given another chance as the game rides on Bledsoe's shoulders in the final seconds, and he throws incomplete to Terry Glenn thus starting the first "sky is falling" panic at the Zone as angry posters adamantly state which receivers were open on the same play. However, the Cowboys still look good at 3-1.
Week 5 Philadelphia Eagles
It really doesn't matter what Vandy does this day as the Cowboys finally "open up the offense" and Bledsoe is on fire! The Cowboys stomp the Eagles and Vandy is 4/4 on field goals, just like Cortez was that day, with his longest one a 45 yarder. Jerry tells Bill that maybe they should have followed Jerry's advice and not spent big on a kicker since like those great 90's teams, the weapons on offense and defense are too much for other teams to handle. The Cowboys are 4-1 and fans are happy because the Giants threaten the NFC East lead at 3-1.
Week 6 N.Y. Giants
This is it... the game that really shows what Vandy can do! While the Cowboys won this game in 2005 with Cortez kicking 3 of 5 field goals, he only managed 1 of 3 from the 40 to 49 yard range, and it really exposed some of his weaknesses. This is where Bill can rub it into Jerry. The game starts with some ugly Cowboys turnovers but they manage to slip in a 7-6 lead in the 2nd quarter in part because of some ugly Giants play as well. When Vandy steps up the plate to attempt a 49 yard field goal that Cortez had blocked, he MISSES!!! No good, no good! The game is still too close for comfort. In the 3rd quarter though, Vandy makes up for his mistake by blasting a 48 yarder that Cortez missed, and also hits some easy 29 and 28 yarders in the 4th giving the Cowboys a 16-6 lead and more confidence. (Cortez hit the 29 and 28 yarders in 2005.) Eli Manning completes his infamous TD pass to Jeremy Shockey leaving some Cowboys fans wondering what is wrong with Mike Zimmer, but in this scenario, even with a successful 2-point conversion, it only trims the lead to 16-14, and with 25 seconds left, the Giants never get to try for an OT win. The Giants attempt a desperate onsides kick, the Cowboys recover, and Dallas wins just like it did in the real 2005 season. The Cowboys are climbing power rankings everywhere with a 5-1 record!!
Week 7 @ Seattle Seahawks
With Vanderjagt on the roster, the Cowboys attempt to re-write history and stop the famous Seattle winning streak that led all the way to the Super Bowl. Flash forward to the 4th quarter..... it's been a slug fest so far. The Cowboys narrowly lead 7 to 3 in part because of Seattle's strong offense facing a Dallas defense that hits and hits hard! With 13:16 left in the game, Vandy lines up for a 29 yard gimme field goal. It's a FG that Cortez missed but Bill is now laughing at Jerry for thinking kickers don't matter! The ball is snapped, it has the distance, and it is.... GOOD! The Cowboys have a 10-3 lead! With 2:08 left in the game, Vandy is called on again to help a slumping Cowboys offense. He easily hits the 21 yard field goal, just like Cortez did, but in the Vanderjagt scenario, Dallas is now winning 13-3 instead of 10-3 as Seattle revs up its two minute offense. Matt Hasselbeck hits future Cowboy TE Ryan Hannam with 46 seconds left and Seattle also completes a 2-point conversion. However, the Cowboys are STILL WINNING 13-11, and Drew Bledsoe is never called upon to throw the ball. Assuming the Seahawks don't recover an onsides kick, the famous interception by Bledsoe is never thrown, the Cowboys run out the clock, and suddenly, Dallas is the media's darling with a 6-1 record!
Week 8 Arizona Cardinals
The term "Cardiac Cowboys" has yet to be brought up because while Dallas had some close ones, efficient field goal kicking has left them with enough comfortable game winning situations in the final minutes, and in the hypothetical 2005 season, Jose Cortez is never dropped for Shaun Suishaum in week eight. Vandy strikes efficiently with both 21 yarders just like his real life counterpart did, but in a 34-13 thrashing, the kicker is not an integral part as Dallas wraps up the first half of the season, and enters its bye week with a 7-1 record!
FIRST HALF WRAP-UP
The Skins are 3-4, the Eagles 4-3, and the Giants 5-2 but with an amazing first half record of 7-1, ESPN is predicting Dallas as the NFC Super Bowl favorite! There are calls for Drew Bledsoe as the MVP of 2005, because his amazing first half stats look even better with a 7-1 record as opposed to the 5-3 record the Cowboys had without Vanderjagt.
With Vandy on the roster instead of Cortez, three games that required Drew Bledsoe to be Joe Montana in the final two minuts or OT (Washington, N.Y. Giants, Seattle) are never needed. These games test the coaching staff and the running game instead of Bledsoe, as most of them can easily be won by preventing the other team from recovering a lucky onsides kick, or spending a few extra seconds running the ball. Worse case scenario, the Cowboys would probably be 6-2 instead of their 5-3 record with Cortez, but they have a great chance to be 7-1.
..... to be continued
Imagine that Vanderjagt was the kicker last year. Assume he kicked with his career averages at various distances:
1 to 19 yarders: 6 of 6 (100%)
20 to 29 yarders: 70 of 72 (97%)
30 to 39 yarders: 62 of 68 (91%)
40 to 49 yarders: 65 of 81 (80%)
50+ yarders: 14 of 21 (67%)
Vanderjagt has a 99.4% completion rate on extra points so we will also assume that he makes all of these after every touchdown. We're also going to assume Parcells kicked FGs just like he did with last year's kickers although it's obvious he'd have a lot more faith in the kicking game with Vanderjagt starting. Basically, treat this like your annoying college economics professor. ("Assume we have equal distances, equal demand, equal supply, an equal proportion of Buddhist left-handers that live in 2-story houses, etc...")
We'll use this convenient website (http://www.mdani.demon.co.uk/para/random.htm) to randomly generate a number from 1 to 100 and as long as the result is within Vanderjagt's career average, in this hypothetical 2005 scenario, the field goal is GOOD!
For any of you folks who think the Cowboys aren't contenders, if you attempt to read this long whopper of a post, you'll find that it's amazing what could have happened in 2005 with just one meager position change. So here we go, 2005 with Mike "Vanderdrunk" as our kicker. Anticipation is high!
Week 1 @ San Diego Chargers
The Cowboys don't attempt a single field goal, Bledsoe starts out on fire, and Vanderjagt makes all 4 XP attempts. Just like in real life, the Cowboys win 28-24. They are now 1-0.
Week 2 Washington Commanders
Vandy attempts a 41 yard FG in the 1st quarter, one that was originally missed by Jose Cortez. And the attempt is... GOOD! In the 2nd quarter, in a hard fought defensive battle, Vandy lands a 33 yarder just like his counterpart did in the real 2005 season. Bledsoe completes that awesome 70 yard flea flicker to Terry Glenn and then Vandy nails a 41 yard FG that Cortez also managed to hit. Cortez and Vandy have similar performances but the big difference is the score is now 16-0 instead of 13-0 as the Skins begin their fabled MNF comeback with 5:51 on the clock. Brunell completes to Santana Moss with 3:55 left but with the lead 16 points this time instead of 13, Gibbs knows that he has to go for the 2 points. Since the NFL average success rate for 2-point conversions is 43% (at least the most recent one I could find), we'll roll the random number generator with that number as the target. Doh! Gibbs makes it. Not long after this, the Commanders once again complete another Sportscenter highlight to Santana Moss and Gibbs is forced to go for the 2 points again with barely 2 minutes on the clock. And the play is stopped!! Momentum instantly shifts! The Cowboys still have to run out the clock, and the Skins can threaten with a FG, but we're going to assume God looks down upon the Cowboys today, and they win a close one 16-14. Their record is now 2-0.
Week 3 @ San Francisco 49ers
Not only does Dallas not attempt a FG, but the "Larry Allen shaking Jose Cortez like a human bobblehead" episode never occurs since Vandy doesn't miss his XP. Plus, with one more point, the game never becomes as close as it did in real life when the 49ers tried to get within field goal range to tie the game and were only stopped when Dat Nguyen had a game winning interception. Final score 35-31. The Cowboys are rolling at 3-0!
Week 4 @ Oakland Raiders
In a game in which the Cowboys were always playing catchup, Vandy easily succeeds with both FGs that Cortez also managed to make, but is never given another chance as the game rides on Bledsoe's shoulders in the final seconds, and he throws incomplete to Terry Glenn thus starting the first "sky is falling" panic at the Zone as angry posters adamantly state which receivers were open on the same play. However, the Cowboys still look good at 3-1.
Week 5 Philadelphia Eagles
It really doesn't matter what Vandy does this day as the Cowboys finally "open up the offense" and Bledsoe is on fire! The Cowboys stomp the Eagles and Vandy is 4/4 on field goals, just like Cortez was that day, with his longest one a 45 yarder. Jerry tells Bill that maybe they should have followed Jerry's advice and not spent big on a kicker since like those great 90's teams, the weapons on offense and defense are too much for other teams to handle. The Cowboys are 4-1 and fans are happy because the Giants threaten the NFC East lead at 3-1.
Week 6 N.Y. Giants
This is it... the game that really shows what Vandy can do! While the Cowboys won this game in 2005 with Cortez kicking 3 of 5 field goals, he only managed 1 of 3 from the 40 to 49 yard range, and it really exposed some of his weaknesses. This is where Bill can rub it into Jerry. The game starts with some ugly Cowboys turnovers but they manage to slip in a 7-6 lead in the 2nd quarter in part because of some ugly Giants play as well. When Vandy steps up the plate to attempt a 49 yard field goal that Cortez had blocked, he MISSES!!! No good, no good! The game is still too close for comfort. In the 3rd quarter though, Vandy makes up for his mistake by blasting a 48 yarder that Cortez missed, and also hits some easy 29 and 28 yarders in the 4th giving the Cowboys a 16-6 lead and more confidence. (Cortez hit the 29 and 28 yarders in 2005.) Eli Manning completes his infamous TD pass to Jeremy Shockey leaving some Cowboys fans wondering what is wrong with Mike Zimmer, but in this scenario, even with a successful 2-point conversion, it only trims the lead to 16-14, and with 25 seconds left, the Giants never get to try for an OT win. The Giants attempt a desperate onsides kick, the Cowboys recover, and Dallas wins just like it did in the real 2005 season. The Cowboys are climbing power rankings everywhere with a 5-1 record!!
Week 7 @ Seattle Seahawks
With Vanderjagt on the roster, the Cowboys attempt to re-write history and stop the famous Seattle winning streak that led all the way to the Super Bowl. Flash forward to the 4th quarter..... it's been a slug fest so far. The Cowboys narrowly lead 7 to 3 in part because of Seattle's strong offense facing a Dallas defense that hits and hits hard! With 13:16 left in the game, Vandy lines up for a 29 yard gimme field goal. It's a FG that Cortez missed but Bill is now laughing at Jerry for thinking kickers don't matter! The ball is snapped, it has the distance, and it is.... GOOD! The Cowboys have a 10-3 lead! With 2:08 left in the game, Vandy is called on again to help a slumping Cowboys offense. He easily hits the 21 yard field goal, just like Cortez did, but in the Vanderjagt scenario, Dallas is now winning 13-3 instead of 10-3 as Seattle revs up its two minute offense. Matt Hasselbeck hits future Cowboy TE Ryan Hannam with 46 seconds left and Seattle also completes a 2-point conversion. However, the Cowboys are STILL WINNING 13-11, and Drew Bledsoe is never called upon to throw the ball. Assuming the Seahawks don't recover an onsides kick, the famous interception by Bledsoe is never thrown, the Cowboys run out the clock, and suddenly, Dallas is the media's darling with a 6-1 record!
Week 8 Arizona Cardinals
The term "Cardiac Cowboys" has yet to be brought up because while Dallas had some close ones, efficient field goal kicking has left them with enough comfortable game winning situations in the final minutes, and in the hypothetical 2005 season, Jose Cortez is never dropped for Shaun Suishaum in week eight. Vandy strikes efficiently with both 21 yarders just like his real life counterpart did, but in a 34-13 thrashing, the kicker is not an integral part as Dallas wraps up the first half of the season, and enters its bye week with a 7-1 record!
FIRST HALF WRAP-UP
The Skins are 3-4, the Eagles 4-3, and the Giants 5-2 but with an amazing first half record of 7-1, ESPN is predicting Dallas as the NFC Super Bowl favorite! There are calls for Drew Bledsoe as the MVP of 2005, because his amazing first half stats look even better with a 7-1 record as opposed to the 5-3 record the Cowboys had without Vanderjagt.
With Vandy on the roster instead of Cortez, three games that required Drew Bledsoe to be Joe Montana in the final two minuts or OT (Washington, N.Y. Giants, Seattle) are never needed. These games test the coaching staff and the running game instead of Bledsoe, as most of them can easily be won by preventing the other team from recovering a lucky onsides kick, or spending a few extra seconds running the ball. Worse case scenario, the Cowboys would probably be 6-2 instead of their 5-3 record with Cortez, but they have a great chance to be 7-1.
..... to be continued
