AccuScore: Romo injury hurts, but not devastating (Minor Impact)

[Coy]

I found this article interesting:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_y...ug=ys-accuscoreromo101308&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

AccuScore: Romo injury hurts, but not devastating
By Stephen Oh, AccuScore
1 hour, 3 minutes ago

Buzz Up PrintAccuScore has simulated the next three Dallas Cowboys games to see how much the Tony Romo injury (out four weeks, Week 10 is a bye) might hurt the team. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios. The Cowboys’ winning percentage declined by an average of 4 percentage points without Romo, but the drop-off with Brad Johnson is not devastating.

Here’s AccuScore.com’s analysis of the Romo injury.

Dallas winning % at Rams vs. Bucs at Giants Avg
w/Romo 77% 74% 43% 65%
w/Johnson 74% 69% 40% 61%
Difference -3% -5% -3% -4%
Copyright AccuScore.com

The Cowboys will be more conservative in its offense. Expect them to run the ball more and throw short passes that will help protect Johnson, who has a history of taking a lot of sacks. Over his career, Johnson has been sacked at a rate that is 36 percent more than Romo (rate based on sacks / pass attempts). The more conservative, ball-control offense will result in fewer points (2 to 4 fewer per game), but the team is still a solid favorite in 2 of the 3 games.

Avg simulation score Romo Johnson
at Rams Dal 30, Stl 17 Dal 26, Stl 17
vs. Bucs Dal 26, Tam 20 Dal 23, Tam 19
at Giants NYG 26, Dal 23 NYG 25, Dal 20
Copyright AccuScore.com

Romo is more accurate with more passing yards and touchdowns per simulation in these three games, but Johnson is turning the ball over less than Romo.

Name CMP ATT Yards TD INT FUML
Romo 20 32 252 1.98 1.02 0.53
Johnson 19 33 236 1.38 0.86 0.35
Copyright AccuScore.com

While the Giants lead the NFC East in winning the division and making the playoffs, the Cowboys are still forecasted for a second-place finish with a 66 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Playoff % Win division Make playoffs
w/Romo 29% 70%
w/Johnson 25% 66%
Difference -4% -4%
Copyright AccuScore.com

 

[windward]

Hope so.

If we are 6-3 into the bye, that'll be great.

 

[Don Corleone]

That's without Romo alone. What about no Felix, and the other injuries?? That makes our chances worse. No?

 

[Coy]

That's without Romo alone. What about no Felix, and the other injuries?? That makes our chances worse. No?

It could, but the thing is that it wouldn´t be a shock if we end up 2-1 in Romo´s absence, I mean you never know but with all the negativity going around I really think we could do it, although it wouldn´t be a skock to be 1-2 either, although my money would be on 2-1.

 

[ddh33]

I can actually envision a scenario where the Romo injury kind of helps the Cowboys.

First of all, I think Dallas has been relying on Romo for way too much. Maybe now the defense will pin its ears back and do its job a little better. Maybe now the running game gets going a little bit more. Maybe now some of the routes get shortened so that the ball comes out, allowing the skill players to make plays themselves instead of waiting for Romo to make it for them.

Ultimately, I think it will put things back in perspective too. The team should survive, and I think a lot of people need to be reminded of what makes for successful football. I don't think Romo is the problem at all, but I think this will give the other parts of the team more opportunity to either carry their weight of fall on their face. Either way, at least you know what you've got.

 

[fortdick]

That's without Romo alone. What about no Felix, and the other injuries?? That makes our chances worse. No?

Choice is no slug. He will pick up the slack.

 

[Coy]

[I can actually envision a scenario where the Romo injury kind of helps the Cowboys.]

I wouldn´t go that far.

 

[DaBoys4Life]

I can actually envision a scenario where the Romo injury kind of helps the Cowboys.

First of all, I think Dallas has been relying on Romo for way too much. Maybe now the defense will pin its ears back and do its job a little better. Maybe now the running game gets going a little bit more. Maybe now some of the routes get shortened so that the ball comes out, allowing the skill players to make plays themselves instead of waiting for Romo to make it for them.

Ultimately, I think it will put things back in perspective too. The team should survive, and I think a lot of people need to be reminded of what makes for successful football. I don't think Romo is the problem at all, but I think this will give the other parts of the team more opportunity to either carry their weight of fall on their face. Either way, at least you know what you've got.

welcome to my ignore list.

 

[TellerMorrow34]

If we got 2-1 in this stretch and go into the bye at 6-3 I'll dance a jig.

 

[Don Corleone]

If we got 2-1 in this stretch and go into the bye at 6-3 I'll dance a jig.

Well, I don't know if that's possible, but we'll see. One thing is that teams will have to gameplan differently around Johnson vs. Romo, so the defensive blueprint that was first created by the Packers (i.e. taking TO out of the game) can't be reused now. Perhaps that will allow us to sneak a win against the Rams. It may not prove much value against the Bucs and Giants though.

 

[Coy]

welcome to my ignore list.

 

[ddh33]

welcome to my ignore list.

I'm hurt...What did I say?

The players and coaches are going to have to do it, but I think this team needs to find some new approaches. The defense has seemingly been pretty content to try to limit opponents instead of trying to destroy them. It's almost as though the offense has become a crutch to the defense...that if they bend enough without breaking, the offense will bail them out.

Meanwhile, on offense, I think Dallas has been putting a lot of pressure on Romo by asking him to do so much. I think scaling things back a bit could help some of the players pick up their production.

But I know this, long-term, without Romo, this team isn't going anywhere.

 

[CrazyCowboy]

this is an example where stats lie.

 

[windward]

this is an example where stats lie.

How can they lie about something that has not occurred yet?