percyhoward
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Sturm did an interesting piece for The Athletic in which he basically said that the only limitations that this offense has are self-inflicted and completely by design, and that the Cowboys "call a different offense when they feel compelled to do so. They want to get an early lead if possible, but then they seem willing to just shorten the game, eventually stepping on the gas as it gets late."
His article included the above chart showing that the Cowboys points per drive (which ranked 17th this year) ranked 6th in the 4th quarter. I wanted to see if this 4th-quarter explosion was because of more aggressive play calling, or simply the result of more successful plays.
15+yd targets by quarter
(as a percentage of total attempts)
1st Dal 12.8% NFL 17.2%
2nd Dal 14.6% NFL 18.3%
3rd Dal 9.2% NFL 17.4%
4th/OT Dal 18.9% NFL 18.6%
Late & Close Dal 25.7% NFL 20.0%
In the 1st quarter of games this season, Dak tried intermediate-to-deep passes on about 13% of his attempts, compared to about 17% for the league. Looking at the league percentages by quarter, you can see very little variance. The increase in the 2nd and 4th quarters is predictable, because teams are more likely to throw deeper at the end of each quarter to try to get a score when the clock is a factor.
Dallas' percentages trailed the rest of the league in each of the first three quarters, then in the 4th quarter/OT the Cowboys actually tried more of these passes than the league average. I think this would surprise most people.
When the score margin was 8 points or less in the 4th quarter or overtime, the Cowboys tried twice as many intermediate-to-deep passes as they did in the 1st quarter. It's normal to have more such passes in a late & close situation, but it's unusual to have so many more. I'm not going to figure the percentages for 32 teams, but that 25.7% is way ahead of the league average, meaning that Dallas is almost certainly within the top 5.
I wouldn't go as far as saying their only limitations are by design, but Sturm's not exaggerating when he says they're a "different offense" late in games -- especially close games.
Late & Close 15+yd targets
(as a percentage of total attempts)
Wilson 29.9%
Brady 27.7%
Prescott 25.7%
Rthlsbrgr 22.2%
Rodgers 21.6%
Brees 21.3%
Ryan 20.5%
Watson 18.9%
Mahomes 18.8%
Goff 16.4%
Wentz 13.9%
Luck 11.8%
Rivers 10.9%