jterrell
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Seldom do we get quality article style posts here.
I'll try to do that without angering too many but fully accepting nothing I post regarding this topic is going to please most people.
Don't know if any of you played big takes little money as a kid or not.
Basically it was two people emptying their pockets. If one person had 2 bucks and the other had 3.45 the guy with 3.45 takes the 2 bucks as well. Seems pretty cutthroat but usually kids play for lunch money and the winner buys anyways.
But the ugly truth is, that is what capitalism kinda boils down too. You need to be semi-intelligent and semi-frugal but ultimately having more money is the key to gaming the system. So while conference realignment is almost universally hated; make no mistake, this is the American way. And it is basically a global reality. Just ask European 'Soccer' fans. Money is power.
The bully on the block is the SEC in NCAA football but the conference responsible for the seismic shifts is clearly the Big 10, B1G conf. They have loads of blue-blood money. Vast majorities of high-level TV execs are B1G grads as well. They are rich and looking to get richer. Adding Nebraska was about hurting the Big 12 and trying to lure Texas for its mighty TV markets. Adding Rutgers and Maryland were about TV sets and dollars. Expect the B1G to start getting boat loads of Under Armour perks.
As we sit here today ACC folks feel ok. They feel like they are still ahead in this game. Sadly, they never played big money takes little money. This really is a zero sum game. The B1G isn't done. The SEC isn't done either. By the time we get to the 8 team playoff you can darn sure expect there are really only 4 major conferences and it takes a virtual miracle to get in as anyone else.
The teams the B1G and SEC are going to target? Almost certainly the remaining ACC schools in big TV markets. Ga Tech, UNC, Va Tech, UVA for sure. When you look at what schools feel is important and what conferences really desire it is pretty easy to speculate. And the motivation never needs to go beyond money. Maryland has explained this. 100 million reasons to leave the current ACC.
But wait, the ACC just added ND and Louisville and is strong as ever? No, my friends it isn't. Even after adding ND it didn't gain financially on the 4 major players. And it still had the smallest pockets. the Big 12 has the 3rd smallest pockets and can not crush it. But the B1G and SEC can and will. The B1G especially NEEDS to. They simply don't win enough to get two spots in the BCS any other way. The SEC? You can bet they are already working on a logical sounding provision to add to the BCS playoffs that gets them a 3rd seed regularly. Something like if a conference doesn't have two top 12 seeds then the spot is filled but the highest ranked BCS team thus far left out. Sounds logical and fair until you realize that it is an SEC team every year. And if the SEC team loses they just get replaced by the next SEC team in line. They are good in football, but no one is as good as we pretend the SEC is. Ole Miss is a 3-5 SEC team. Decent team but they lost to a very mediocre UT team by over 30 at home. It was their worst blowout loss of the year.
But, but, but ... NOTRE DAME.
The problem for ND is they made a deal with NBC sports. NBC is not owned by Disney/ESPN/ABC nor is it owned by Viacom or Fox. It is essentially owned by GE. And GE is rich but not heavily leveraged in TV or sports programming. They have Sunday night football and ND football.
Fox and Disney/ESPN would like nothing more than to see NBC go away. Why keep bidding against them? Strip them of meaningful NCAA games? They'd love to! So you can bet the networks that own the SEC/ACC/BIG 12/B1G ALL agree reducing the current 5 plus conf scenario to a mere 4 is a GREAT idea. Yes, even the ACC's television providers.
So when you read that there will be four super-conferences and that the ACC gets dismantled; this isn't just bravado or hate or rampant homerism. All those things obviously exist in NCAA football but this is really just common sense and following the money.
I've seen lots of possible scenarios but the 16 teamers posited by thedudeofwv makes tons of sense.
And he says...
All that's then left is splitting up the remaining ACC to the big 3 sans PAC and the Pac 12 taking its pick of any 4 Western schools. BYU, Boise St, Nevada, UNLV???
But whatever happens will happen because of money. Of that you can be sure.
I'll try to do that without angering too many but fully accepting nothing I post regarding this topic is going to please most people.
Don't know if any of you played big takes little money as a kid or not.
Basically it was two people emptying their pockets. If one person had 2 bucks and the other had 3.45 the guy with 3.45 takes the 2 bucks as well. Seems pretty cutthroat but usually kids play for lunch money and the winner buys anyways.
But the ugly truth is, that is what capitalism kinda boils down too. You need to be semi-intelligent and semi-frugal but ultimately having more money is the key to gaming the system. So while conference realignment is almost universally hated; make no mistake, this is the American way. And it is basically a global reality. Just ask European 'Soccer' fans. Money is power.
The bully on the block is the SEC in NCAA football but the conference responsible for the seismic shifts is clearly the Big 10, B1G conf. They have loads of blue-blood money. Vast majorities of high-level TV execs are B1G grads as well. They are rich and looking to get richer. Adding Nebraska was about hurting the Big 12 and trying to lure Texas for its mighty TV markets. Adding Rutgers and Maryland were about TV sets and dollars. Expect the B1G to start getting boat loads of Under Armour perks.
As we sit here today ACC folks feel ok. They feel like they are still ahead in this game. Sadly, they never played big money takes little money. This really is a zero sum game. The B1G isn't done. The SEC isn't done either. By the time we get to the 8 team playoff you can darn sure expect there are really only 4 major conferences and it takes a virtual miracle to get in as anyone else.
The teams the B1G and SEC are going to target? Almost certainly the remaining ACC schools in big TV markets. Ga Tech, UNC, Va Tech, UVA for sure. When you look at what schools feel is important and what conferences really desire it is pretty easy to speculate. And the motivation never needs to go beyond money. Maryland has explained this. 100 million reasons to leave the current ACC.
But wait, the ACC just added ND and Louisville and is strong as ever? No, my friends it isn't. Even after adding ND it didn't gain financially on the 4 major players. And it still had the smallest pockets. the Big 12 has the 3rd smallest pockets and can not crush it. But the B1G and SEC can and will. The B1G especially NEEDS to. They simply don't win enough to get two spots in the BCS any other way. The SEC? You can bet they are already working on a logical sounding provision to add to the BCS playoffs that gets them a 3rd seed regularly. Something like if a conference doesn't have two top 12 seeds then the spot is filled but the highest ranked BCS team thus far left out. Sounds logical and fair until you realize that it is an SEC team every year. And if the SEC team loses they just get replaced by the next SEC team in line. They are good in football, but no one is as good as we pretend the SEC is. Ole Miss is a 3-5 SEC team. Decent team but they lost to a very mediocre UT team by over 30 at home. It was their worst blowout loss of the year.
But, but, but ... NOTRE DAME.
The problem for ND is they made a deal with NBC sports. NBC is not owned by Disney/ESPN/ABC nor is it owned by Viacom or Fox. It is essentially owned by GE. And GE is rich but not heavily leveraged in TV or sports programming. They have Sunday night football and ND football.
Fox and Disney/ESPN would like nothing more than to see NBC go away. Why keep bidding against them? Strip them of meaningful NCAA games? They'd love to! So you can bet the networks that own the SEC/ACC/BIG 12/B1G ALL agree reducing the current 5 plus conf scenario to a mere 4 is a GREAT idea. Yes, even the ACC's television providers.
So when you read that there will be four super-conferences and that the ACC gets dismantled; this isn't just bravado or hate or rampant homerism. All those things obviously exist in NCAA football but this is really just common sense and following the money.
I've seen lots of possible scenarios but the 16 teamers posited by thedudeofwv makes tons of sense.
And he says...
All that's then left is splitting up the remaining ACC to the big 3 sans PAC and the Pac 12 taking its pick of any 4 Western schools. BYU, Boise St, Nevada, UNLV???
But whatever happens will happen because of money. Of that you can be sure.
