Plankton
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https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/04/22/gameplan-steve-sarkisian-mac-jones-alabama-nfl-special
WHAT NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT
The number of teams wanting to trade down always outpaces the teams looking to deal up.
I don’t have detailed statistics from the last decade that can prove this—mainly because it’d be hard to quantify word of mouth during that stretch of time—but I feel comfortable positioning the above as fact. Because it is. And this year is again proof of it, if you look at where we stand with a week left before Night 1 of the draft.
• The Jaguars, Jets and Niners aren’t moving, and will take quarterbacks.
• The Falcons, at No. 4, have been open with teams about moving down.
• The Lions, at No. 7, have been open with teams about moving down.
• After the Sam Darnold trade, the Panthers, at No. 8, are really considering moving down.
• Two teams that have explored moving up—the Broncos at No. 9, and Eagles at No. 12—have also explored moving down.
• The Bengals and Dolphins, at No. 5 and No. 6, have publicly declared they’re comfortable where they are, but won’t rule out moving down.
Call it the Jimmy Johnson Effect. The ex-Cowboys coach was among the first to challenge NFL convention that held teams should build a fence around their picks, and that, say, the 15th pick was worth so much more than the 35th. The Trader Jimmy approach served as the fuel for a gassed-up roster-building philosophy that created some of the greatest collections of talent in NFL history.
Johnson has since spread the gospel, with Bill Belichick being perhaps his most devout parishioner—the Patriots’ coach has logged a lot of hours aboard Jimmy’s fishing boat in the Keys—and the word reaching new coaches and, as a result, new teams every year. (Less than a month ago, second-year Panthers coach Matt Rhule climbed on Three Rings and, boom!, Carolina’s on the possible trade-down list.)
And the effect of it? It’s felt everywhere, and has made it so trading into the top 10, which is the costliest of transactions on draft weekend, rarely happens for anything but a quarterback anymore.
Look at the last five drafts …
• There have been 11 trades into or up within the top 10 over that period. Eight of the 11 were for quarterbacks.
• The three that weren’t happened at the bottom of the top 10, the Titans going to No. 8 (Jack Conklin) and the Bears to No. 9 (Leonard Floyd) in 2016, and the Steelers going to No. 10 (Devin Bush) in 2019.
• One of those three—the Titans, moving up from No. 15 to eight—happened after Tennessee had already moved down (which is what the Dolphins did this year).
• Movement within the top 10 slowed to a crawl before this year’s early flurry, with the Steelers’ trade for Bush the only move up into or within the top 10 the last two years.
So therein you have something to remember for next week. Because of Johnson’s influence, and because of empirical data showing that amassing quantity of picks is the way to go, there will be a lot of teams looking to move down on the first night of the draft.
We’ll see how many will go the other way come Thursday.
WHAT NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT
The number of teams wanting to trade down always outpaces the teams looking to deal up.
I don’t have detailed statistics from the last decade that can prove this—mainly because it’d be hard to quantify word of mouth during that stretch of time—but I feel comfortable positioning the above as fact. Because it is. And this year is again proof of it, if you look at where we stand with a week left before Night 1 of the draft.
• The Jaguars, Jets and Niners aren’t moving, and will take quarterbacks.
• The Falcons, at No. 4, have been open with teams about moving down.
• The Lions, at No. 7, have been open with teams about moving down.
• After the Sam Darnold trade, the Panthers, at No. 8, are really considering moving down.
• Two teams that have explored moving up—the Broncos at No. 9, and Eagles at No. 12—have also explored moving down.
• The Bengals and Dolphins, at No. 5 and No. 6, have publicly declared they’re comfortable where they are, but won’t rule out moving down.
Call it the Jimmy Johnson Effect. The ex-Cowboys coach was among the first to challenge NFL convention that held teams should build a fence around their picks, and that, say, the 15th pick was worth so much more than the 35th. The Trader Jimmy approach served as the fuel for a gassed-up roster-building philosophy that created some of the greatest collections of talent in NFL history.
Johnson has since spread the gospel, with Bill Belichick being perhaps his most devout parishioner—the Patriots’ coach has logged a lot of hours aboard Jimmy’s fishing boat in the Keys—and the word reaching new coaches and, as a result, new teams every year. (Less than a month ago, second-year Panthers coach Matt Rhule climbed on Three Rings and, boom!, Carolina’s on the possible trade-down list.)
And the effect of it? It’s felt everywhere, and has made it so trading into the top 10, which is the costliest of transactions on draft weekend, rarely happens for anything but a quarterback anymore.
Look at the last five drafts …
• There have been 11 trades into or up within the top 10 over that period. Eight of the 11 were for quarterbacks.
• The three that weren’t happened at the bottom of the top 10, the Titans going to No. 8 (Jack Conklin) and the Bears to No. 9 (Leonard Floyd) in 2016, and the Steelers going to No. 10 (Devin Bush) in 2019.
• One of those three—the Titans, moving up from No. 15 to eight—happened after Tennessee had already moved down (which is what the Dolphins did this year).
• Movement within the top 10 slowed to a crawl before this year’s early flurry, with the Steelers’ trade for Bush the only move up into or within the top 10 the last two years.
So therein you have something to remember for next week. Because of Johnson’s influence, and because of empirical data showing that amassing quantity of picks is the way to go, there will be a lot of teams looking to move down on the first night of the draft.
We’ll see how many will go the other way come Thursday.
