This should be an excellent series, Great match-ups across the board. In terms of starting five, I would say that they are very close:
- Kobe has a huge edge over Ray Allen. Ray cannot guard him and Kobe can shut down Ray defensively. Ray may do well in this series, though, because Kobe is going to have to help on Rondo.
- Pau has an edge over an older Garnett. KG is still a good player at this point in his career, but Pau is one of the best right now when the Lakers chose to go to him.
- Bynum and Perkins might be a push, but only because I expect Bynum to have his usual injury issues. Perkins will miss one game in this series as he is one technical foul away from a suspension. The Celtics need for that game to happen on the road and not at home, because the Lakers will out-rebound the Celtics like crazy in that game.
- Pierce has an edge over Artest. I can see Ron shutting Pierce down for a few games, but Pierce will get in his head eventually and then Artest will start doing stupid things.
- Rondo has a monster edge over Fisher. Huge. They will need to have Kobe guard him some and ask Fisher to switch off on Allen. Since Fisher can't possibly guard Allen either, both players should have good numbers in this series. Rondo could end up with an all-time great series if Kobe is not assigned to him full-time.
- Bench play, I would lean heavily on the Celtics.
- Coaching, an advantage for the Lakers.
As much as I want to pick the Celtics, this 2-3-2 format is difficult on the road team. I wish they would change it, but that is the way it is going to happen this year. Phil will get the most out of the mismatches that Kobe and Pau present, use the Laker's length to keep the Celtic's second chances down and just live with being torched by Rondo (and occasionally by Pierce on those days that he gets in Artest's head).
If it gets out of Boston, then the Lakers take it in seven