Consensus Opinion vs Original Thoughts

[xwalker]

Consensus opinion does not mean unanimous opinion. It's basically the majority opinion.

Any draft media person that expresses original thoughts on draft prospects/rankings gets slammed by fans.

Most of the media draft analysts tend to converge in their rankings because they don't like to get slammed.

Most fans latch on to the consensus opinion and make it their own with a few minor tweaks.

Very few fans seem to look back to see that the consensus opinion was often wrong.

The consensus opinion has often been wrong both in where players get drafted and in how players end up performing in their careers.

Many fans will form extreme opinions based on draft reports and highlight videos.

Fans have become wary of original opinions that differ from the consensus because it's often click-bait just to get attention.

I urge fans to try to be smart enough to know the difference in original opinions vs click-bait opinions.

There was a media draft guy a few years ago that got poo-poo'd by many fans because his rankings didn't align with the more well known draft media people. That guy ended up getting a job in an NFL front office.

Another ex media draft analyst that varied a bit from the consensus was Mike Mayock. He rarely (maybe never) did mock drafts. He is now an NFL GM.

A media draft person that is now expressing original thoughts is Chris Simms.

I didn't want to like Chris Simms because his father is the NFL media person that I dislike more than any NFL commentator in history. I often watched games with the sound off when Phil Simms was the color analyst.

I'm not saying that Chris Simm's opinions are definitely correct, but he has great explanations of what he likes and dislikes about players.

Chris Simms does have a bit of a goofy personality and he uses a lot of Madden-ish superlatives but if you really listen to what he has to say about players and ignore the personality quirks, it's terrific content.

One of the things he looks at that many fans and media tend to overlook is what a player was coached to do in college. Simms focuses on how the players project to the NFL with much less focus on their college stats. For example, he points out that Alabama does not really put an emphasis on their DTs penetrating into the backfield.

Fans are really poo-pooing the fact that Simms does not have WR Jerry Jeudy in his top 5 WRs. He does admit that he has been off in the past on guys like DeAndre Hopkins who he didn't grade as high due in part to limited speed/athleticism. It's possible that he is now over-correcting because in his top 5 this year he really emphasizes traits similar to DeAndre Hopkins.

I can see some concerns about Jeudy. He has a thin build and he had a fair number of dropped passes. He has a lot of TDs in college but I don't know if he projects to be a great redzone threat. Some WRs with limited physicality have uber speed/athleticism that offset the limited physicality but Jeudy just has average speed/athleticism for relative to #1 NFL WRs. Obviously Jeudy is an elite route runner and has terrific change of direction ability which projects well to him becoming an Amari Cooper style WR; although Cooper out weighs him by almost 20 pounds.

 

[xwalker]

Don't try to watch the entire video in one setting.

His analysis of the DTs is very interesting, IMO.

As I stated previously, he does use a lot of Madden-ish superlatives but his opinions appear to be genuine based on actually studying the game footage of these players.

 

[xwalker]

I have WR Jerry Jeudy in the top 3 but I do see several things that concern me about him.

He is a terrific route runner with elite change of direction but he has a thin build and is not the most physical player. His speed/athleticism are good but not wow considering that he only weighs 193.

 

[JBell]

Simms isn't just trolling for attention, he backs up his opinions with actual analysis, even if I don't agree with it.

I do like him having Justin Jefferson as his #2 WR. Jefferson is a baller, wouldn't be upset if we took him at #17.

 

[J-man]

I dig Simms

 

[Sydla]

Simms isn't just trolling for attention, he backs up his opinions with actual analysis, even if I don't agree with it.

I do like him having Justin Jefferson as his #2 WR. Jefferson is a baller, wouldn't be upset if we took him at #17.

Jefferson will end up in Philly and it will kill you watching him twice a season.

 

[JBell]

Jefferson will end up in Philly and it will kill you watching him twice a season.

 

[beware_d-ware]

Watched the DT rankings. I disagree with him on Raekwon Davis. He's right that Bama guys are coached to hold the line rather than fly through and make plays, but they don't have the juice to fly through even if they were turned loose. Saban just doesn't recruit that style of player.

We've seen the same story a billion times with Alabama DTs. A'Shawn Robinson, Dalvin Tomlinson, Jarran Reed, Da'Ron Payne, Jonathan Allen.... none of those guys have turned into high end pass rushers. Allen's all right, and Reed had a 10 sack season that stands out as a big fluke, but otherwise they're all like 2 or 3 sack a year run stuffers. Davis is going down that 5T stuffer route, and he's had continual problems off the field. Spending a first rounder for that, no thanks.

I will say though - I am ambivalent about Neville Gallimore, but I was in the war room and Simms was banging the table like that, I would be all on board. Talk about a sales pitch.

 

[Gaede]

I do like Simms. But in small doses

 

[xwalker]

Watched the DT rankings. I disagree with him on Raekwon Davis. He's right that Bama guys are coached to hold the line rather than fly through and make plays, but they don't have the juice to fly through even if they were turned loose. Saban just doesn't recruit that style of player.

We've seen the same story a billion times with Alabama DTs. A'Shawn Robinson, Dalvin Tomlinson, Jarran Reed, Da'Ron Payne, Jonathan Allen.... none of those guys have turned into high end pass rushers. Allen's all right, and Reed had a 10 sack season that stands out as a big fluke, but otherwise they're all like 2 or 3 sack a year run stuffers. Davis is going down that 5T stuffer route, and he's had continual problems off the field. Spending a first rounder for that, no thanks.

I will say though - I am ambivalent about Neville Gallimore, but I was in the war room and Simms was banging the table like that, I would be all on board. Talk about a sales pitch.

1. He is only rating them based on game footage. He is not really ranking them on character, etc..
2. I agree he might be over-rating R.Davis but I don't think he is proposing to draft him in the 1st. He really just ranks players vs others at their position. I don't think he has tried hard to rank them relative to all other players.
3. Jarran Reed signed a contract for 11.5M per. That's not bad for a player drafted at #49.
4. Payne had 5 sacks as a rookie. He had an injury issue that limited him in 2019.
5. Allen had 6 and 8 sacks the past 2 seasons. That's good for a DT.
6. Tomlinson was pick #55. I'm sure they knew they were drafting a run stuffer when they picked him. He has started 48 straight games.

 

[Verdict]

Watched the DT rankings. I disagree with him on Raekwon Davis. He's right that Bama guys are coached to hold the line rather than fly through and make plays, but they don't have the juice to fly through even if they were turned loose. Saban just doesn't recruit that style of player.

We've seen the same story a billion times with Alabama DTs. A'Shawn Robinson, Dalvin Tomlinson, Jarran Reed, Da'Ron Payne, Jonathan Allen.... none of those guys have turned into high end pass rushers. Allen's all right, and Reed had a 10 sack season that stands out as a big fluke, but otherwise they're all like 2 or 3 sack a year run stuffers. Davis is going down that 5T stuffer route, and he's had continual problems off the field. Spending a first rounder for that, no thanks.

I will say though - I am ambivalent about Neville Gallimore, but I was in the war room and Simms was banging the table like that, I would be all on board. Talk about a sales pitch.

Gallimore may be the steal of this draft if he goes where he is projected to go.

 

[Floatyworm]

I do like Simms. But in small doses

Can't stand him....And not shocking... X-Walker's man crush.....