Cost of Trades in Last Years Draft

[AsthmaField]

In another thread I was posting about the cost of moving up for Aaron Donald from 16 overall to around 10th or 11th overall. I thought it might be a good idea to look back at last year's first couple of rounds to get an understanding of what it might cost to make a move.

The main line of thinking on trades in this year's draft is that it is an extremely deep draft and many teams are wanting to trade back to get more picks, making it cheaper to move up if that's what you want to do. It makes sense because most experts agree that there will be more people looking to trade back than there will be trade up partners, giving better value to those who are willing to give up extra picks to move up.

If that is indeed the case, then the trades below would be a 'worse case scenario' and getting a little better deal might be expected.


*The Dolphins moved up with the Raiders from 12 to 3 to take Dion Jordan. The Raiders got 12 and Miami's 2nd. So 9 spots up to #3 cost a 2nd.

*The Rams went from 16 to 8 to take Tavon Austin. Buffalo got the Rams 2nd rounder and the two teams also swapped 3rd round picks (Rams got 71 and Buffalo got 78) making the cost of moving up 8 spots in the first less than a 2nd round pick (Buffalo got a 2nd but Rams got value back by moving up 7 spots in the 3rd).

*San Francisco moved up 13 spots from 31 to 18 to take Eric Reid. Dallas got SF's 3rd round pick.

*Atlanta moved up 8 spots from 30 to 22 to get Desmond Trufant and a 7th round pick in 2015. In return Rams got a 3rd round pick and a 6th rounder.

*In an interesting second round trade, the Titans moved up from 40 overall to 34 overall to take Justin Hunter and San Francisco got pick 40 plus a 7th round pick. SF also got the Titans 3rd round pick in 2014. So, Tenn moved up 6 spots and only gave up a 7th round pick in that draft, but the did give the following year's 3rd rounder too.

So, to summarize by taking out team names:

- Move up 9 spots to 3rd overall cost a 2nd.

- Move up 8 spots to 8th overall cost less than a 2nd but more than a 3rd.

- Move up 13 spots to 18 cost a 3rd.

- Move up 8 spots to 22 cost a third and a 6th.


If it cost a 2nd round pick to move up to the #3 overall pick from the 12th overall, then we can say moving from our pick at 16 overall to #7 overall should cost a 2nd. Of course, 12 to 3 should cost more than 16 to 7, even though the number of picks are the same. The 3rd overall is inherently more valuable because it is so close to first overall.

Ignoring that difference though, we can say that it should cost roughly a second to go up to #7 from our #16 pick. If Dallas thinks they can get their target around 10 or 11 then I wouldn't expect it to cost any more than a 3rd. Certainly if a 2nd would get them to 7 overall.

Of course there are so many variables that it is impossible to pinpoint what a team will ask during the draft, but this should be pretty close.

I think that Tenn at 11 would be a pretty good target if Dallas is looking to move up and take Donald. He should still be there barring something unforseen like another team moving up or Atlanta taking him at 5... way earlier than he is expected to go. Tenn is said to be looking at safety pretty hard and all the safeties should still be on the board at pick #16. I have heard that the Titans like Pryor a lot. If that's who they want, they should be able to drop from 11 to 16 and still get who they would draft at 11.

In this case, I think a 3rd would be sufficient to get Tenn to bite... maybe even less.

Detroit at #10 should not be more than a 3rd if using this guideline.


The one second round trade that I mentioned above is interesting. Tenn moved from 40 to 34 overall basically trading a 3rd round pick the following year. They did throw in a 7th from that draft, but that is really negligible.

What that says to me is that if there is a player that slips out of the first round that Dallas really likes, it is possible to trade next year's 3rd (roughly) and move up several spots to take him. So, if someone like Ryan Shazier, Dee Ford, or even someone completely unexpected like Jernigan slide out of the first, it might not be too costly to go up from 47 to get him.

Anyway, just something to look at and think about with still almost 2 weeks(!) to go.

 

[Nightman]

I think the early second is sweet spot in the draft. If we can move up from 47 to the low 30s for the cost of a 4th and 7th, that would be great.

They could move back in the third to pick up a 4th or 5th or use some of their 7s to get into the 5th or 6th.

 

[Fredd]

nice post @AsthmaField
I am not a "move up" guy at all, but seeing it in black and white might make it more palatable for me if they do...I would just HATE to give up anything of big value (2nd or 3rd) to make a move...the team isn't one player away...also, robbing peter to pay paul (giving up a 2015 pick) is interesting, but also something difficult to do as this team needs good drafts consistently to get back into regular contention

 

[Alexander]

I am not in favor of moving up. I would rather find a way to get multiple second and third round choices.

That is where the majority of the players we have targeted and could utilize the most are slotted. I would hope we have already laid the groundwork for something like that. I would have no issue dropping down to the 49ers spot again the way things are looking.

 

[Idgit]

I'm not in favor of moving up. That said, I'd rather one great player than three good ones. Great players are hard to find. Good ones are relatively easy to find by comparison.

If we were to move up for Donald, we'd better be sure he'll be great and sure the guys below him we might target otherwise won't be.

 

[TheFinisher]

I'm not trading up for a 6'0" 280lb DT

 

[MichaelWinicki]

No moving up please.

 

[dallasdave]

No moving up please.

What about moving down like the Cowboys did last year?

 

[MichaelWinicki]

What about moving down like the Cowboys did last year?

I would love to move down if the right guy isn't there at 16.

There are a bunch of good players in the 2nd and 3rd round that could help fill out this roster.

 

[honyock]

In another thread I was posting about the cost of moving up for Aaron Donald from 16 overall to around 10th or 11th overall. I thought it might be a good idea to look back at last year's first couple of rounds to get an understanding of what it might cost to make a move.

The main line of thinking on trades in this year's draft is that it is an extremely deep draft and many teams are wanting to trade back to get more picks, making it cheaper to move up if that's what you want to do. It makes sense because most experts agree that there will be more people looking to trade back than there will be trade up partners, giving better value to those who are willing to give up extra picks to move up.

If that is indeed the case, then the trades below would be a 'worse case scenario' and getting a little better deal might be expected.


*The Dolphins moved up with the Raiders from 12 to 3 to take Dion Jordan. The Raiders got 12 and Miami's 2nd. So 9 spots up to #3 cost a 2nd.

*The Rams went from 16 to 8 to take Tavon Austin. Buffalo got the Rams 2nd rounder and the two teams also swapped 3rd round picks (Rams got 71 and Buffalo got 78) making the cost of moving up 8 spots in the first less than a 2nd round pick (Buffalo got a 2nd but Rams got value back by moving up 7 spots in the 3rd).

*San Francisco moved up 13 spots from 31 to 18 to take Eric Reid. Dallas got SF's 3rd round pick.

*Atlanta moved up 8 spots from 30 to 22 to get Desmond Trufant and a 7th round pick in 2015. In return Rams got a 3rd round pick and a 6th rounder.

*In an interesting second round trade, the Titans moved up from 40 overall to 34 overall to take Justin Hunter and San Francisco got pick 40 plus a 7th round pick. SF also got the Titans 3rd round pick in 2014. So, Tenn moved up 6 spots and only gave up a 7th round pick in that draft, but the did give the following year's 3rd rounder too.

So, to summarize by taking out team names:

- Move up 9 spots to 3rd overall cost a 2nd.

- Move up 8 spots to 8th overall cost less than a 2nd but more than a 3rd.

- Move up 13 spots to 18 cost a 3rd.

- Move up 8 spots to 22 cost a third and a 6th.


If it cost a 2nd round pick to move up to the #3 overall pick from the 12th overall, then we can say moving from our pick at 16 overall to #7 overall should cost a 2nd. Of course, 12 to 3 should cost more than 16 to 7, even though the number of picks are the same. The 3rd overall is inherently more valuable because it is so close to first overall.

Ignoring that difference though, we can say that it should cost roughly a second to go up to #7 from our #16 pick. If Dallas thinks they can get their target around 10 or 11 then I wouldn't expect it to cost any more than a 3rd. Certainly if a 2nd would get them to 7 overall.

Of course there are so many variables that it is impossible to pinpoint what a team will ask during the draft, but this should be pretty close.

I think that Tenn at 11 would be a pretty good target if Dallas is looking to move up and take Donald. He should still be there barring something unforseen like another team moving up or Atlanta taking him at 5... way earlier than he is expected to go. Tenn is said to be looking at safety pretty hard and all the safeties should still be on the board at pick #16. I have heard that the Titans like Pryor a lot. If that's who they want, they should be able to drop from 11 to 16 and still get who they would draft at 11.

In this case, I think a 3rd would be sufficient to get Tenn to bite... maybe even less.

Detroit at #10 should not be more than a 3rd if using this guideline.


The one second round trade that I mentioned above is interesting. Tenn moved from 40 to 34 overall basically trading a 3rd round pick the following year. They did throw in a 7th from that draft, but that is really negligible.

What that says to me is that if there is a player that slips out of the first round that Dallas really likes, it is possible to trade next year's 3rd (roughly) and move up several spots to take him. So, if someone like Ryan Shazier, Dee Ford, or even someone completely unexpected like Jernigan slide out of the first, it might not be too costly to go up from 47 to get him.

Anyway, just something to look at and think about with still almost 2 weeks(!) to go.

My guess is it'd take Dallas' 3rd to get up to #11. Packaging their 4th and 5th instead of their 3rd probably wouldn't be enough.

If Tennessee was willing to take the 3rd, I'd be tempted.

 

[dallasdave]

I would love to move down if the right guy isn't there at 16.

There are a bunch of good players in the 2nd and 3rd round that could help fill out this roster.

Last year was great . Fred was just what we needed, and Williams is going to be a good WR. The 2013 draft trade was value, and addressed two needs, a two for one.

 

[DFWJC]

Raider trades don't count as comparables...unless it is to trade with Raiders.

Plus, all 2nd and 3rd rounders are not the same. Depends on where that choice is in the round.

• As always, throw Oakland's out. Lol
• Dallas was desperate and the best deal they could get was probably slightly below market,but worked fine anyway.
• The Rams/Bills pretty much went by the standard charts...though that is not set in stone and changes from team to team and by situation. But the values were textbook.

It's safest to expect nothing better than what a standard trade chart shows....but alway try to do better. So, if we wanted to trade up to 10th, we should expect to give up a 3rd and 4th.
If we trade down to 28th, ideally, we would get that teams late 2nd rounder.

 

[AsthmaField]

Raider trades don't count as com parables...unless it is to trade with Raiders.

Haha, probably not far from true.

 

[Beast_from_East]

In another thread I was posting about the cost of moving up for Aaron Donald from 16 overall to around 10th or 11th overall. I thought it might be a good idea to look back at last year's first couple of rounds to get an understanding of what it might cost to make a move.

The main line of thinking on trades in this year's draft is that it is an extremely deep draft and many teams are wanting to trade back to get more picks, making it cheaper to move up if that's what you want to do. It makes sense because most experts agree that there will be more people looking to trade back than there will be trade up partners, giving better value to those who are willing to give up extra picks to move up.

If that is indeed the case, then the trades below would be a 'worse case scenario' and getting a little better deal might be expected.


*The Dolphins moved up with the Raiders from 12 to 3 to take Dion Jordan. The Raiders got 12 and Miami's 2nd. So 9 spots up to #3 cost a 2nd.

*The Rams went from 16 to 8 to take Tavon Austin. Buffalo got the Rams 2nd rounder and the two teams also swapped 3rd round picks (Rams got 71 and Buffalo got 78) making the cost of moving up 8 spots in the first less than a 2nd round pick (Buffalo got a 2nd but Rams got value back by moving up 7 spots in the 3rd).

*San Francisco moved up 13 spots from 31 to 18 to take Eric Reid. Dallas got SF's 3rd round pick.

*Atlanta moved up 8 spots from 30 to 22 to get Desmond Trufant and a 7th round pick in 2015. In return Rams got a 3rd round pick and a 6th rounder.

*In an interesting second round trade, the Titans moved up from 40 overall to 34 overall to take Justin Hunter and San Francisco got pick 40 plus a 7th round pick. SF also got the Titans 3rd round pick in 2014. So, Tenn moved up 6 spots and only gave up a 7th round pick in that draft, but the did give the following year's 3rd rounder too.

So, to summarize by taking out team names:

- Move up 9 spots to 3rd overall cost a 2nd.

- Move up 8 spots to 8th overall cost less than a 2nd but more than a 3rd.

- Move up 13 spots to 18 cost a 3rd.

- Move up 8 spots to 22 cost a third and a 6th.


If it cost a 2nd round pick to move up to the #3 overall pick from the 12th overall, then we can say moving from our pick at 16 overall to #7 overall should cost a 2nd. Of course, 12 to 3 should cost more than 16 to 7, even though the number of picks are the same. The 3rd overall is inherently more valuable because it is so close to first overall.

Ignoring that difference though, we can say that it should cost roughly a second to go up to #7 from our #16 pick. If Dallas thinks they can get their target around 10 or 11 then I wouldn't expect it to cost any more than a 3rd. Certainly if a 2nd would get them to 7 overall.

Of course there are so many variables that it is impossible to pinpoint what a team will ask during the draft, but this should be pretty close.

I think that Tenn at 11 would be a pretty good target if Dallas is looking to move up and take Donald. He should still be there barring something unforseen like another team moving up or Atlanta taking him at 5... way earlier than he is expected to go. Tenn is said to be looking at safety pretty hard and all the safeties should still be on the board at pick #16. I have heard that the Titans like Pryor a lot. If that's who they want, they should be able to drop from 11 to 16 and still get who they would draft at 11.

In this case, I think a 3rd would be sufficient to get Tenn to bite... maybe even less.

Detroit at #10 should not be more than a 3rd if using this guideline.


The one second round trade that I mentioned above is interesting. Tenn moved from 40 to 34 overall basically trading a 3rd round pick the following year. They did throw in a 7th from that draft, but that is really negligible.

What that says to me is that if there is a player that slips out of the first round that Dallas really likes, it is possible to trade next year's 3rd (roughly) and move up several spots to take him. So, if someone like Ryan Shazier, Dee Ford, or even someone completely unexpected like Jernigan slide out of the first, it might not be too costly to go up from 47 to get him.

Anyway, just something to look at and think about with still almost 2 weeks(!) to go.

Excellent work bro.