Cowboys @ Browns Preview, Part II: Stopping Cleveland’s Rush

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Cowboys @ Browns Preview, Part II: Stopping Cleveland’s Rush

http://www.blueandsilverreport.com/2008/09/03/cowboys-browns-preview-part-ii-stopping-clevelands-rush/

September 3, 2008

It appears, at first glance, that the Cowboys have formidable opponents in Jamal Lewis and the Cleveland offensive line. The Browns showed great balance last year, with Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow keeping secondaries honest. This kept eight man fronts to a minimum and created space for Lewis to run.

The Ravens gave up on Lewis but he showed he still has tread left on his football tires, rushing for 1,304 yards, averaging a very good 4.4 yards per attempt.

Lewis’ season can be broken down into two halves. He started slowly, carrying only once each in early losses to New England and Oakland and missing the Dolphins game completely. He averaged a pedestrian 64 yards per game in the Browns’ first nine contests and were it not for a breakout 216 yard game against Cincinnati in week two, Lewis would have averaged just 43 yards per game in that span.

He was a different runner in the Browns’ last 7 games, averaging 113 yards per contest and notching four 100 yard games. Only once in that stretch of games was he held below 92 yards.

These numbers suggest the Browns line gelled at mid-season and began steamrolling opponents, right?

Not exactly. Let’s look at Lewis’ performances when broken down by his opponents’ run-defense rankings:

Opp. Rush Defense Rank | Games | Att. | Yards | Yds/Game | Yds./Att.
1-10
- 6 - 89 - 258 - 43.0 - 2.9
11-20 -3 - 66 - 232 - 77.3 - 3.5
21-32
- 6 - 143 - 773 - 128.8 - 5.4

These numbers demonstrate that the Browns’ rushing game was good but not dominant in 2007. Cleveland had six games against rush defenses ranked in the top 10 — two against Pittsburgh, two against Baltimore and one each against Arizona and New England. Cleveland ran poorly in those matches. Lewis averaged less than three yards per carry and 43 yards per game.

Against mid-level rush defenses, those ranked 11th through 20th, the Browns put up solid numbers. Lewis averaged 3.5 yards a carry and just over 77 yards per game against the Seahawks, Texans and Rams.

When the Browns played poor run defenses, they ripped them apart. In their six games against the Bengals, Raiders, Jets, Bills and 49ers, Lewis ran wild, averaging over five yards a carry and nearly 130 yards per game. It’s a coincidence that Cleveland’s toughest run opponents clotted their early schedule and the weakest ones filled their second half.

Dallas’ run defense ranked 6th last year, and is likely stronger this season. Zach Thomas looks much more instinctive and productive than Akin Ayodele did last year. He shows no effects from the head problems that shortened his ‘07 campaign.

Dallas also has better depth at nose tackle, with Tank Johnson and Marcus Spears rotating inside with Jay Ratliff. These changes make Dallas stronger up the middle, the softest area in their ‘07 rush defense.
New DL coach Todd Grantham has Spears playing his best ball ever. He looked far more active in the preseason games and made a lot of plays in the backfield.

As I wrote yesterday, Cleveland does not run a lot of power formations, because Kellen Winslow lines up as a wide receiver so often. The Browns rely on second TE Steve Heiden, a 270 lb. load, to block on the edge when they line up in two-TE sets. When the Browns go standard, 250 lb. fullback Lawrence Vickers provides interference for Lewis.

Because Winslow blocks so poorly and because Dallas’ run defense is sound, I’ll again contend that we won’t see Roy Williams much on Sunday, as the Cowboys probably won’t keep an eighth man in the box. That player is better used in coverage. Dallas has the size at OLB to match up to Cleveland’s line and lead blocker with its standard 3-4 front.

I would not be surprised to see Dallas line up the strong side OLB, which is usually Greg Ellis, out in space on Winslow, to jam his release. Ellis would then turn Winslow over to the CB behind him and pursue runs inside or to the weakside. He would be counted on to beat Winslow at the point of attack on any outside runs his way.

In any case, don’t expect Dallas to go overboard trying to shut Lewis down. As the chart demonstrates, he and his teammates have trouble against good rush defenses, and Dallas has a good one.

Next: Dallas’ passing offense versus the Browns pass defense.
 
The only thing I worry about is a false sense of confidence from completely overwhelming this overrated team.

Prediction: Derek Anderson doesn't finish this game. We get up by a quick 14-17 points and Anderson becomes the victim of a ridiculously fierce pass rush. And Brady Quinn actually winds up looking better in relief, much like Aaron Rodgers did last year.

You heard it here first.
 
dargonking999;2231600 said:
Cowboys @ Browns Preview, Part II: Stopping Cleveland’s Rush

http://www.blueandsilverreport.com/2008/09/03/cowboys-browns-preview-part-ii-stopping-clevelands-rush/

September 3, 2008

It appears, at first glance, that the Cowboys have formidable opponents in Jamal Lewis and the Cleveland offensive line. The Browns showed great balance last year, with Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow keeping secondaries honest. This kept eight man fronts to a minimum and created space for Lewis to run.

The Ravens gave up on Lewis but he showed he still has tread left on his football tires, rushing for 1,304 yards, averaging a very good 4.4 yards per attempt.

Lewis’ season can be broken down into two halves. He started slowly, carrying only once each in early losses to New England and Oakland and missing the Dolphins game completely. He averaged a pedestrian 64 yards per game in the Browns’ first nine contests and were it not for a breakout 216 yard game against Cincinnati in week two, Lewis would have averaged just 43 yards per game in that span.

He was a different runner in the Browns’ last 7 games, averaging 113 yards per contest and notching four 100 yard games. Only once in that stretch of games was he held below 92 yards.

These numbers suggest the Browns line gelled at mid-season and began steamrolling opponents, right?

Not exactly. Let’s look at Lewis’ performances when broken down by his opponents’ run-defense rankings:

Opp. Rush Defense Rank | Games | Att. | Yards | Yds/Game | Yds./Att.
1-10
- 6 - 89 - 258 - 43.0 - 2.9
11-20 -3 - 66 - 232 - 77.3 - 3.5
21-32
- 6 - 143 - 773 - 128.8 - 5.4

These numbers demonstrate that the Browns’ rushing game was good but not dominant in 2007. Cleveland had six games against rush defenses ranked in the top 10 — two against Pittsburgh, two against Baltimore and one each against Arizona and New England. Cleveland ran poorly in those matches. Lewis averaged less than three yards per carry and 43 yards per game.

Against mid-level rush defenses, those ranked 11th through 20th, the Browns put up solid numbers. Lewis averaged 3.5 yards a carry and just over 77 yards per game against the Seahawks, Texans and Rams.

When the Browns played poor run defenses, they ripped them apart. In their six games against the Bengals, Raiders, Jets, Bills and 49ers, Lewis ran wild, averaging over five yards a carry and nearly 130 yards per game. It’s a coincidence that Cleveland’s toughest run opponents clotted their early schedule and the weakest ones filled their second half.

Dallas’ run defense ranked 6th last year, and is likely stronger this season. Zach Thomas looks much more instinctive and productive than Akin Ayodele did last year. He shows no effects from the head problems that shortened his ‘07 campaign.

Dallas also has better depth at nose tackle, with Tank Johnson and Marcus Spears rotating inside with Jay Ratliff. These changes make Dallas stronger up the middle, the softest area in their ‘07 rush defense.
New DL coach Todd Grantham has Spears playing his best ball ever. He looked far more active in the preseason games and made a lot of plays in the backfield.

As I wrote yesterday, Cleveland does not run a lot of power formations, because Kellen Winslow lines up as a wide receiver so often. The Browns rely on second TE Steve Heiden, a 270 lb. load, to block on the edge when they line up in two-TE sets. When the Browns go standard, 250 lb. fullback Lawrence Vickers provides interference for Lewis.

Because Winslow blocks so poorly and because Dallas’ run defense is sound, I’ll again contend that we won’t see Roy Williams much on Sunday, as the Cowboys probably won’t keep an eighth man in the box. That player is better used in coverage. Dallas has the size at OLB to match up to Cleveland’s line and lead blocker with its standard 3-4 front.

I would not be surprised to see Dallas line up the strong side OLB, which is usually Greg Ellis, out in space on Winslow, to jam his release. Ellis would then turn Winslow over to the CB behind him and pursue runs inside or to the weakside. He would be counted on to beat Winslow at the point of attack on any outside runs his way.

In any case, don’t expect Dallas to go overboard trying to shut Lewis down. As the chart demonstrates, he and his teammates have trouble against good rush defenses, and Dallas has a good one.

Next: Dallas’ passing offense versus the Browns pass defense.

I guess that supports my start Henry theory at FS and the Nickel package too.
 
cowboys2233;2231614 said:
The only thing I worry about is a false sense of confidence from completely overwhelming this overrated team.

Prediction: Derek Anderson doesn't finish this game. We get up by a quick 14-17 points and Anderson becomes the victim of a ridiculously fierce pass rush. And Brady Quinn actually winds up looking better in relief, much like Aaron Rodgers did last year.

You heard it here first.


overwhelming an overrated team?

I dont see them as overrated.

The talent difference will be leveled out I believe by the emotional surge the browns will have from opening up at home with their fans against a team everone hates and plays better against, Dallas.

I expect a buffalo-philadelphia type of emotional and loud crowd that is going to cause some problems for us, and then procter is an unknown.
 
cowboys2233;2231614 said:
The only thing I worry about is a false sense of confidence from completely overwhelming this overrated team.

Prediction: Derek Anderson doesn't finish this game. We get up by a quick 14-17 points and Anderson becomes the victim of a ridiculously fierce pass rush. And Brady Quinn actually winds up looking better in relief, much like Aaron Rodgers did last year.

You heard it here first.

The Browns' OL is one of the biggest strengths of the team. I wouldn't expect our pass rush to end up being the story of the game. I'd consider it more likely that we beat Anderson on the other end - he's a gunslinger who makes a lot of bad decisions, and with just decent pressure, we (hopefully) have the secondary to exploit those mistakes this year.
 
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