Sandyf
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Finally draft day is here so by the end of the night (midnight iss) we should know who we have unless we do the unthinkable and trade out of the 1st.
This draft is going to be interesting from the 2nd pick on and we could see lots of movement in the 1st round. It should push some talent down to #26 or later. One thing that I gather from the different sites including all the team sites is that almost every team only has around 12 to 14 true 1st round grades and most have only 1 QB in those discussions. This tells me that the likely scenario for Dallas is that none will be available at #26 and that includes B. Robinson RB Texas.
I have read and read about Dallas needs although none of us know what Dallas considers their needs or what their board even looks like, so tried to evaluate each position as to what the Boys have and where that may lead into the draft. Also based on tendencies for Dallas drafting players comes into play heavily.
From history over the past 10 years or so, we can expect the first 4 rounds to be players from the major conferences. After that and including UDFAs, it will be guys they consider BPA left in any position and/or projects they believe will pay off. I will be very surprised if we select a K even knowing (believing) we should. Also drafting a QB will have to be someone that McCarthy actually believes has the cajoles to actually take Cooper Rush's spot in 2024 so most likely an UDFA guy like probably Maxx Duggan. And remember we still have Grier who McCarthy likes but Moore didn't.
So now positions.
QB - Love him or Hate him, Dak is the guy and most likely gets extended sometime this year. Rush is a good backup and Grier is still an unknown. Probably a UDFA target added.
RB - Pollard coming off injury and not sure how ready he will be. R. Jones has some juice but never really has shown it. Davis has looked good but not an every down guy. Dowdle is a long shot to make the team. Zeke is gone but depending on the draft could be back by June, like it or not. Unless Robinson falls to #26, don't see Dallas spending a 1st on a RB but come the 2nd round and beyond, they will take at least one and probably another as UDFA also. I do think they like Gibbs in the 2nd because he fits closely with Pollard's capabilities.
WR - The question is when not if we take one. Lamb is due a big bump and Cook is on a 2 year deal that if goes well could be extended. Gallup should be fully healthy now and return to status pre injury. Tolbert was a so far bust although all indications is that he has looked a 1000 percent better than year one. Houston and Fehoko both have good upsides but need to make a jump this year. This is a weak draft for good WRs but a guy like Mingo in the 3rd or 4th could be a steal. Seems boards with him as 1st round or 2nd round but teams know he has quite a bit learning curve on routes and separation to be effective in the NFL.
OL - Many see this as a must in first two or three rounds but is it. The hole at LG, may or may not be as many think and just don't see Dallas taking a OG unless it is a OT who projects inside or an OG that can also play OC. Ball has spent the off season training for LG, Edoga is much better than fans give credit for and Farniok is capable of a fill in. We should look at the LG in draft but shouldn't be surprised if it is a day three pick. At OT, believe we will see Tyler Smith and Terrance Steele as starters and Tyron Smith as the swing OT with Watetzko as the backup. In the 2nd or 3rd, could see them draft an OT that projects inside or a center like Tippmann or Schmitz since Biadasz is in his final year.
TE - If McCarthy is really going to run more then they need a big body that can block well yet still be able to slip out and run a good route and catch the ball. Really like Ferguson and Hendershot as ball catchers and McKeon is definitely serviceable but none of them appear to be a true starting TE. McCarthy will use some sets with 3 TE in the game, always has so a Day 1 or Day 2 guy is probably likely. I do think Mayer and Kincaid go in the top 22 so could see Dallas take a Washington, LaPorte or Kraft with a small trade down on Day 1 to say 29 or 31 to snag one. If not then probably 3rd or 4th round is where we pick one.
DT - Dallas taking a DT in the 1st round just seems like a fantasy more than a reality as they just don't want to spend big salary cap number on a 3 tech and Lord knows never on a 1 tech regardless of what any of us or the media believe. Will Gallimore step us, can Hankins give it all for a whole season, is Bohanna going to have a breakout year, and can Alarcon really make the transition to a hybrid 1 and 3 tech guy are all questions to answer. I do see us drafting a DT but don't see it until the 5th or 6th round solely based on how Dallas values the $$ at the position.
DE/EDGE - I believe we have six good ones if you throw Parsons in that mix as a LB/EDGE with Lawrence, Armstong, Gholston, Williams and Fowler but we could definitely use another on especially if it is one that can be the LB/EDGE similar to Parson. Dallas seems to like McDonald in that role so could see them going him in the first or Derick Hall, Andre Carter, Viliami Fehoko, B.J. Thompson, Caleb Murphy or Durell Johnson late 3rd all the way into UDFA guys. Really could see Dallas trying to sign Thompson, Murphy and Johnson all as UDFA guys.
LB - Seems like most fans believe we really need to add one here and somewhere in the draft we might but this is a very weak draft for LB until at least the 3rd round. With Parsons, LVE, Clark, Cox, and Harper, we have 5 good ones and if McKinley returns to form and Jefferson does also then not much room like none to add a guy. There are only 5 guys that deserve considerations in the day 1 or 2 area and wouldn't be surprised if none went in the 1st round. I look for Dallas to find a guy that can be that LB/EDGE before any true LB.
CB - Diggs (who will get an extension soon), Gilmore (who if plays well will get an extension), and Bland are the top 3 guys with Joseph, Wright, Lewis and probably Mukuamu (S/CB) as the remainder. Don't be surprised is Lewis is traded in the draft along with a couple of others (not CBs). Also don't be surprised if at sometime late May or June that Anthony Brown isn't resigned to a one year deal. Could Dallas draft a guy in the 1st, sure if one falls but before you pick one remember what Quinn wants in his CB and most of that is size, length and speed. Seen a number of mocks sending Forbes to us and I don't get it, sure great length and good speed not great, but size is going to be a huge problem playing in the Quinn defense, other teams not so much. Brents, Rush, Trice, Garner, Jones and Rics more fit what Quinn wants.
S - With Kearse, Hooker, Wilson, Ball, Coyle and Mukkuamu, we have a very good if not great S room. Really could see us adding a guy like Mapu who appears to be a Kearse clone as a hybrid S/LB. Also I do believe that Ball sees a lot more playing time this year. Almost an embarrassment of riches at S.
K - Probably see signing one or two in UDFA and for my money hope Jake Moody is one if not drafted.
P - Another UDFA and betting it is Michael Turk who could challenge Anger.
LS - Sieg is the guy this year.
So see it like this:
1st Round - EDGE/LB or TE unless a top 12/15 falls to them
2nd Round - RB or OT or DE
3rd Round - WR or RB or CB or OC
4th Round - S or RB or CB or LB/EDGE
5th Round - OG or CB or LB/EDGE
6th Round - WR or OG or CB or DT
7th Round - DT or LB/EDGE or CB or DE
This draft is going to be interesting from the 2nd pick on and we could see lots of movement in the 1st round. It should push some talent down to #26 or later. One thing that I gather from the different sites including all the team sites is that almost every team only has around 12 to 14 true 1st round grades and most have only 1 QB in those discussions. This tells me that the likely scenario for Dallas is that none will be available at #26 and that includes B. Robinson RB Texas.
I have read and read about Dallas needs although none of us know what Dallas considers their needs or what their board even looks like, so tried to evaluate each position as to what the Boys have and where that may lead into the draft. Also based on tendencies for Dallas drafting players comes into play heavily.
From history over the past 10 years or so, we can expect the first 4 rounds to be players from the major conferences. After that and including UDFAs, it will be guys they consider BPA left in any position and/or projects they believe will pay off. I will be very surprised if we select a K even knowing (believing) we should. Also drafting a QB will have to be someone that McCarthy actually believes has the cajoles to actually take Cooper Rush's spot in 2024 so most likely an UDFA guy like probably Maxx Duggan. And remember we still have Grier who McCarthy likes but Moore didn't.
So now positions.
QB - Love him or Hate him, Dak is the guy and most likely gets extended sometime this year. Rush is a good backup and Grier is still an unknown. Probably a UDFA target added.
RB - Pollard coming off injury and not sure how ready he will be. R. Jones has some juice but never really has shown it. Davis has looked good but not an every down guy. Dowdle is a long shot to make the team. Zeke is gone but depending on the draft could be back by June, like it or not. Unless Robinson falls to #26, don't see Dallas spending a 1st on a RB but come the 2nd round and beyond, they will take at least one and probably another as UDFA also. I do think they like Gibbs in the 2nd because he fits closely with Pollard's capabilities.
WR - The question is when not if we take one. Lamb is due a big bump and Cook is on a 2 year deal that if goes well could be extended. Gallup should be fully healthy now and return to status pre injury. Tolbert was a so far bust although all indications is that he has looked a 1000 percent better than year one. Houston and Fehoko both have good upsides but need to make a jump this year. This is a weak draft for good WRs but a guy like Mingo in the 3rd or 4th could be a steal. Seems boards with him as 1st round or 2nd round but teams know he has quite a bit learning curve on routes and separation to be effective in the NFL.
OL - Many see this as a must in first two or three rounds but is it. The hole at LG, may or may not be as many think and just don't see Dallas taking a OG unless it is a OT who projects inside or an OG that can also play OC. Ball has spent the off season training for LG, Edoga is much better than fans give credit for and Farniok is capable of a fill in. We should look at the LG in draft but shouldn't be surprised if it is a day three pick. At OT, believe we will see Tyler Smith and Terrance Steele as starters and Tyron Smith as the swing OT with Watetzko as the backup. In the 2nd or 3rd, could see them draft an OT that projects inside or a center like Tippmann or Schmitz since Biadasz is in his final year.
TE - If McCarthy is really going to run more then they need a big body that can block well yet still be able to slip out and run a good route and catch the ball. Really like Ferguson and Hendershot as ball catchers and McKeon is definitely serviceable but none of them appear to be a true starting TE. McCarthy will use some sets with 3 TE in the game, always has so a Day 1 or Day 2 guy is probably likely. I do think Mayer and Kincaid go in the top 22 so could see Dallas take a Washington, LaPorte or Kraft with a small trade down on Day 1 to say 29 or 31 to snag one. If not then probably 3rd or 4th round is where we pick one.
DT - Dallas taking a DT in the 1st round just seems like a fantasy more than a reality as they just don't want to spend big salary cap number on a 3 tech and Lord knows never on a 1 tech regardless of what any of us or the media believe. Will Gallimore step us, can Hankins give it all for a whole season, is Bohanna going to have a breakout year, and can Alarcon really make the transition to a hybrid 1 and 3 tech guy are all questions to answer. I do see us drafting a DT but don't see it until the 5th or 6th round solely based on how Dallas values the $$ at the position.
DE/EDGE - I believe we have six good ones if you throw Parsons in that mix as a LB/EDGE with Lawrence, Armstong, Gholston, Williams and Fowler but we could definitely use another on especially if it is one that can be the LB/EDGE similar to Parson. Dallas seems to like McDonald in that role so could see them going him in the first or Derick Hall, Andre Carter, Viliami Fehoko, B.J. Thompson, Caleb Murphy or Durell Johnson late 3rd all the way into UDFA guys. Really could see Dallas trying to sign Thompson, Murphy and Johnson all as UDFA guys.
LB - Seems like most fans believe we really need to add one here and somewhere in the draft we might but this is a very weak draft for LB until at least the 3rd round. With Parsons, LVE, Clark, Cox, and Harper, we have 5 good ones and if McKinley returns to form and Jefferson does also then not much room like none to add a guy. There are only 5 guys that deserve considerations in the day 1 or 2 area and wouldn't be surprised if none went in the 1st round. I look for Dallas to find a guy that can be that LB/EDGE before any true LB.
CB - Diggs (who will get an extension soon), Gilmore (who if plays well will get an extension), and Bland are the top 3 guys with Joseph, Wright, Lewis and probably Mukuamu (S/CB) as the remainder. Don't be surprised is Lewis is traded in the draft along with a couple of others (not CBs). Also don't be surprised if at sometime late May or June that Anthony Brown isn't resigned to a one year deal. Could Dallas draft a guy in the 1st, sure if one falls but before you pick one remember what Quinn wants in his CB and most of that is size, length and speed. Seen a number of mocks sending Forbes to us and I don't get it, sure great length and good speed not great, but size is going to be a huge problem playing in the Quinn defense, other teams not so much. Brents, Rush, Trice, Garner, Jones and Rics more fit what Quinn wants.
S - With Kearse, Hooker, Wilson, Ball, Coyle and Mukkuamu, we have a very good if not great S room. Really could see us adding a guy like Mapu who appears to be a Kearse clone as a hybrid S/LB. Also I do believe that Ball sees a lot more playing time this year. Almost an embarrassment of riches at S.
K - Probably see signing one or two in UDFA and for my money hope Jake Moody is one if not drafted.
P - Another UDFA and betting it is Michael Turk who could challenge Anger.
LS - Sieg is the guy this year.
So see it like this:
1st Round - EDGE/LB or TE unless a top 12/15 falls to them
2nd Round - RB or OT or DE
3rd Round - WR or RB or CB or OC
4th Round - S or RB or CB or LB/EDGE
5th Round - OG or CB or LB/EDGE
6th Round - WR or OG or CB or DT
7th Round - DT or LB/EDGE or CB or DE
