kramskoi
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If statistics are any indication then the two teams who clash at the meadowlands today are further apart than in last years week 13 showdown.
Not that stats win games but looking into the past can give us a glimpse into the future and the likelihood that one of these two teams will soon be exposed as "less than advertised".
With eight games providing a reasonable sample size, it's time to put the database to the test. That's why the game is played.
In last years matchup the DVOA looked like this:
rk tm dvoa rk W-L wgtDVOA offense defense special tms
6 DAL 24.5% [6] [6-4] 25.7% [3] 9.9% [7] -15.8% [4] -1.3% [22]
7 NYG 23.1% [3] [6-4] 23.8% [6] 13.6% [5] -9.2% [8] 0.3% [16]
New York actually had the edge on offense [13.6% - 9.9%] but Dallas was playing a little better on defense [-15.8% - (-9.2%)]. Dallas had a slight edge in total DVOA with the #6 ranking [24.5%]. I'm guessing that injuries influenced the line at the time, since Dallas is favored by 2 pts. less this year.
In a back and forth game last year, Romo to Witten made the difference in the end and Dallas won by 3 points, which almost corresponds to the difference in total weighted DVOA. Dallas was fortunate to the win this game as it could've gone either way.
The retirement of Tiki Barber has had an interesting effect on the New York offense this year. Though Burress is having an outstanding season, all is not as it seems with New York this year, at least compared to the Dallas offense.
For starters, Manning is currently languishing around #26 in DVOA quarterback rankings which is lower than where he ended last year. The running game appears in good standing with the trifecta of Ward-Jacobs and Droughns but the offense is performing below last years level.
Here is the DVOA of both teams before today's matchup.
rk tm dvoa rk wgtDVOA W-L offense rk defense rk sp/tms rk
3 DAL 44.0% [3] 41.5% 7-1 29.9% [3] -13.8% [5] 0.4% [13]
11 NYG 6.3% [12] 13.3% 6-2 6.7% [12] -5.0% [11] -5.4% [29]
A marked difference in DVOA!
Over eight games, Dallas has increased its margin over New York on defense and offense especially. What was once less than a 2% difference in total DVOA is now a whopping 37% pts. New York's offensive DVOA has declined about 7% pts. from last year and undoubtedly Barber's contribution is missing from this years unit.
The Dallas offense enjoys a decisive offensive advantage [23% pts] in performance over the first half of the season and that unit is largely responsible for the margin in total DVOA. The unit has increased its performance by 20% pts. over last years rankings.
The Dallas offense is currently ranked behind only Indianapolis and New England and after the decisive dismantling of the Eagles last sunday becomes one of only three teams with top 5 rankings in overall, offense and defensive DVOA...Indy and NE complete this trio...clearly Dallas is amongst the upper echelon of teams this year, joining Pittsburgh, Indy and NE as the only four teams above 36% total DVOA. All other 28 teams are below 20% total DVOA, with NY coming in around 6%. The gap between the haves and the have nots is larger than ever this year. It remains to be seen if Dallas can stay one of the four horsemen after sunday.
Dallas has also widened it's margin a little on the defensive side, even after having been torched by the juggernaut NE offense.
Romo, meanwhile, has improved from 10th to 6th in DVOA quarterback rankings and has had [5] 300+ yard performances this year.
What does all this mean? It means that Dallas should win it's third consecutive against the Giants on sunday but...
That's why you play the game.
Not that stats win games but looking into the past can give us a glimpse into the future and the likelihood that one of these two teams will soon be exposed as "less than advertised".
With eight games providing a reasonable sample size, it's time to put the database to the test. That's why the game is played.
In last years matchup the DVOA looked like this:
rk tm dvoa rk W-L wgtDVOA offense defense special tms
6 DAL 24.5% [6] [6-4] 25.7% [3] 9.9% [7] -15.8% [4] -1.3% [22]
7 NYG 23.1% [3] [6-4] 23.8% [6] 13.6% [5] -9.2% [8] 0.3% [16]
New York actually had the edge on offense [13.6% - 9.9%] but Dallas was playing a little better on defense [-15.8% - (-9.2%)]. Dallas had a slight edge in total DVOA with the #6 ranking [24.5%]. I'm guessing that injuries influenced the line at the time, since Dallas is favored by 2 pts. less this year.
In a back and forth game last year, Romo to Witten made the difference in the end and Dallas won by 3 points, which almost corresponds to the difference in total weighted DVOA. Dallas was fortunate to the win this game as it could've gone either way.
The retirement of Tiki Barber has had an interesting effect on the New York offense this year. Though Burress is having an outstanding season, all is not as it seems with New York this year, at least compared to the Dallas offense.
For starters, Manning is currently languishing around #26 in DVOA quarterback rankings which is lower than where he ended last year. The running game appears in good standing with the trifecta of Ward-Jacobs and Droughns but the offense is performing below last years level.
Here is the DVOA of both teams before today's matchup.
rk tm dvoa rk wgtDVOA W-L offense rk defense rk sp/tms rk
3 DAL 44.0% [3] 41.5% 7-1 29.9% [3] -13.8% [5] 0.4% [13]
11 NYG 6.3% [12] 13.3% 6-2 6.7% [12] -5.0% [11] -5.4% [29]
A marked difference in DVOA!
Over eight games, Dallas has increased its margin over New York on defense and offense especially. What was once less than a 2% difference in total DVOA is now a whopping 37% pts. New York's offensive DVOA has declined about 7% pts. from last year and undoubtedly Barber's contribution is missing from this years unit.
The Dallas offense enjoys a decisive offensive advantage [23% pts] in performance over the first half of the season and that unit is largely responsible for the margin in total DVOA. The unit has increased its performance by 20% pts. over last years rankings.
The Dallas offense is currently ranked behind only Indianapolis and New England and after the decisive dismantling of the Eagles last sunday becomes one of only three teams with top 5 rankings in overall, offense and defensive DVOA...Indy and NE complete this trio...clearly Dallas is amongst the upper echelon of teams this year, joining Pittsburgh, Indy and NE as the only four teams above 36% total DVOA. All other 28 teams are below 20% total DVOA, with NY coming in around 6%. The gap between the haves and the have nots is larger than ever this year. It remains to be seen if Dallas can stay one of the four horsemen after sunday.
Dallas has also widened it's margin a little on the defensive side, even after having been torched by the juggernaut NE offense.
Romo, meanwhile, has improved from 10th to 6th in DVOA quarterback rankings and has had [5] 300+ yard performances this year.
What does all this mean? It means that Dallas should win it's third consecutive against the Giants on sunday but...
That's why you play the game.