Effect of Penalties on First Half Running Game

[percyhoward]

Our first half running game may be the league's worst. Jones and Barber have averaged 3.32 ypc on 71 first half runs. This would rank 30th in the league over a whole game. I don't have first half rushing numbers for every team, but since yards per carry is generally higher in the first half of games than the second half, it's likely that our first half ypc of 3.3 ranks at the very bottom of the NFL. (I'm not including QB scrambles.)

The topic is discussed ad nauseam here. One of the responses to that post was that penalties (specifically holding) are keeping our first half per-carry average down.

first half running plays negated by penallty
1 NYG: none
2 @MIA: 2nd qtr 3-10 MIA 32 (11:33) J. Jones 2 yards to MIA 30 (L. Davis--off. holding)
3 @CHI: 1st qtr 2-10 DAL 35 (1:05) M. Barber 1 yard to DAL 36 (F. Adams--off. holding)
4 STL: none
5 @BUF: none
6 NE: 2nd qtr 2-5 NE 21 (13:33) M. Barber 3 yards to NE 18 (K. Kozier--off. holding)
7 MIN: none

number of penalties: 3
total yardage negated: 6 yards
1st downs negated: none

I included any penalty called on a run play in the first half of the games--not just holding. If you take out the penalties and include the yardage gained on plays that were called back, our first half number would actually go DOWN to 3.27 ypc.

Penalties have not contributed in any way to our dismal first half running performance. On the contrary, the penalties have helped our average. About the only thing I can conclude from this research is that the linemen need to learn to hold better.

ACTUAL BREAKDOWN of all 1st half RB carries
Gained 2 yds or less: 49% (35 of 71)
Gained 3-4 yds: 20% (14 of 71)
Gained 5 yds or more: 31% (22 of 71)

ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE NEGATED GAINS
Gained 2 yds or less: 50% (37 of 74)
Gained 3-4 yds: 20% (15 of 74)
Gained 5 yds or more: 30% (22 of 74)

 

[TonyS]

With Philthy, we need to come out running the ball and commanding the line of scrimmage. I want to see a solid first drive without the dinking and dunking passing going on. If we're a playoff-caliber team, we need to use our first drive to establish the run.

That will open up everything else from there.

Thanks for the unique stat perspective PHoward.

 

[TheCount]

Our first half running game may be the league's worst. Jones and Barber have averaged 3.32 ypc on 71 first half runs. This would rank 30th in the league over a whole game. I don't have first half rushing numbers for every team, but since yards per carry is generally higher in the first half of games than the second half, it's likely that our first half ypc of 3.3 ranks at the very bottom of the NFL. (I'm not including QB scrambles.)

Is this true? How do you figure that?

 

[Hostile]

Might I assume then that the holding penalties have affected us in the 2nd half? That one game alone I swear Julius Jones had 50 yards taken off the books.

Also, which back gets gyped more by penalties? Just curious.

 

[speedkilz88]

Might I assume then that the holding penalties have affected us in the 2nd half? That one game alone I swear Julius Jones had 50 yards taken off the books.

Also, which back gets gyped more by penalties? Just curious.

I remember them too, but I could swear they were in the first half.

 

[percyhoward]

Is this true? How do you figure that?

These are the top ten rushers in the league. All of them have the same or higher yards per carry in the first half of games than in the second half. The minus figures are the decrease in their ypc in the 2nd half.

2nd half diff in ypc 2007
Peterson -0.9
Parker -0.2
McGahee -0.9
Tomlinson -0.5
James -1.2
Brown -0.4
Addai even
Henry -0.8
TJones even
Lynch -0.1

Barber +3.0
Jones +1.7

 

[silverblue]

Might I assume then that the holding penalties have affected us in the 2nd half? That one game alone I swear Julius Jones had 50 yards taken off the books.

Also, which back gets gyped more by penalties? Just curious.

It was the chicago game that julius had several major runs and screens called back

 

[percyhoward]

Might I assume then that the holding penalties have affected us in the 2nd half? That one game alone I swear Julius Jones had 50 yards taken off the books.

Also, which back gets gyped more by penalties? Just curious.

I don't know that either gets gyped more than the other (with apologies to Cowboys fans who are also gypsies who may be offended by that term). I think Julius has had a couple of long runs on screens called back, and both have had some 2nd half runs called back.

The OP was really in response to Adam's claim in that other thread that we'd be an "average" running team in the first half if not for holding penalties.

I know you're looking for more specific info on the 2nd half, though. Maybe someone else can help here.

 

[theogt]

I don't know that either gets gyped more than the other (with apologies to Cowboys fans who are also gypsies who may be offended by that term). I think Julius has had a couple of long runs on screens called back, and both have had some 2nd half runs called back.

The OP was really in response to Adam's claim in that other thread that we'd be an "average" running team in the first half if not for holding penalties.

I know you're looking for more specific info on the 2nd half, though. Maybe someone else can help here.

I remember someone looked up Julius' average without the penalties and it jumped up to about 4.5 YPC.

 

[percyhoward]

It was the chicago game that julius had several major runs and screens called back

Julius had one 22-yard run called back, but that was in the 4th quarter.

Both Jones and Barber had 10+ yard receptions for 1st downs called back in that game.

 

[Hostile]

I don't know that either gets gyped more than the other (with apologies to Cowboys fans who are also gypsies who may be offended by that term). I think Julius has had a couple of long runs on screens called back, and both have had some 2nd half runs called back.

The OP was really in response to Adam's claim in that other thread that we'd be an "average" running team in the first half if not for holding penalties.

I know you're looking for more specific info on the 2nd half, though. Maybe someone else can help here.

You know, I never made the connection between gyp and gypsies. And I was a freaking English Major.

:bang2:

 

[percyhoward]

I remember someone looked up Julius' average without the penalties and it jumped up to about 4.5 YPC.

The problem is the 1st half, with JJ at 3.0 and MB at 3.7 ypc. And those averages are unaffected by penalties.

Even with the penalties, JJ is looking good in the 2nd half, at 4.7 ypc. Barber is at 6.7 ypc. That 2nd half number helps both their averages, but isn't a good indicator of our first half problems running the ball.

 

[percyhoward]

You know, I never made the connection between gyp and gypsies. And I was a freaking English Major.

:bang2:

2nd major: English. 1st major: European History. I guess that explains it.

 

[AdamJT13]

Our first half running game may be the league's worst. Jones and Barber have averaged 3.32 ypc on 71 first half runs. This would rank 30th in the league over a whole game. I don't have first half rushing numbers for every team, but since yards per carry is generally higher in the first half of games than the second half, it's likely that our first half ypc of 3.3 ranks at the very bottom of the NFL. (I'm not including QB scrambles.)

The Bears are averaging 3.196 yards per carry in the first half, excluding QB scrambles. There might be another team or other teams that are lower, too.

And by the way, STATS LLC's splits for Jones and Barber add up to 237 first-half yards, not 236. That wouldn't change their YPC by much (it should be 3.34), but it could change the yardage distribution by carry (if a 2-yard gain should be in the 3-4 category, or if a 4-yard gain should be in the 5-plus category).

One of the responses to that post was that penalties (specifically holding) are keeping our first half per-carry average down.

That's not what I said. I was talking about the yardage distribution of our rushes, not yards per carry.

first half running plays negated by penallty
1 NYG: none
2 @MIA: 2nd qtr 3-10 MIA 32 (11:33) J. Jones 2 yards to MIA 30 (L. Davis--off. holding)
3 @CHI: 1st qtr 2-10 DAL 35 (1:05) M. Barber 1 yard to DAL 36 (F. Adams--off. holding)
4 STL: none
5 @BUF: none
6 NE: 2nd qtr 2-5 NE 21 (13:33) M. Barber 3 yards to NE 18 (K. Kozier--off. holding)
7 MIN: none

number of penalties: 3
total yardage negated: 6 yards
1st downs negated: none

The problem here is that when holding occurs downfield during a run, the yards credited end where the holding occurs. So, for example, if the running back runs for an 80-yard TD, but a holding penalty gets called with the spot of the foul being the offense's 24, it will be listed as a 4-yard run in the play-by-play. But it wasn't the 4 yards that were negated, it was the other 76 yards.

We've actually had 16 yards negated and one first down negated.

If you take out the penalties and include the yardage gained on plays that were called back, our first half number would actually go DOWN to 3.27 ypc.

No, it would go up to 3.45 (it would be 73 carries for 252 yards).

Penalties have not contributed in any way to our dismal first half running performance. On the contrary, the penalties have helped our average.

Incorrect.

ACTUAL BREAKDOWN of all 1st half RB carries
Gained 2 yds or less: 49% (35 of 71)
Gained 3-4 yds: 20% (14 of 71)
Gained 5 yds or more: 31% (22 of 71)

ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE NEGATED GAINS
Gained 2 yds or less: 50% (37 of 74)
Gained 3-4 yds: 20% (15 of 74)
Gained 5 yds or more: 30% (22 of 74)

The actual adjusted numbers would be this (assuming your starting totals were correct, which might not be true) --

Gained 2 yds or less: 47.95% (35 of 73)
Gained 3-4 yds: 20.55% (15 of 73)
Gained 5 yds or more: 31.51% (23 of 73)

The NFL averages in those categories are 44.8 percent, 21.1 percent and 34.1 percent. So we're still talking about only a couple of carries that should have been better.

Going back to my post in the other thread, fewer holding penalties on runs wouldn't change four first-half rushing yardage distribution by that much. When I went back and looked at the play-by-plays, the big penalties actually wiped out more first-half screen passes than first-half runs (other than one 11-yard run by Julius for a first down against Miami). Julius had a 14-yard screen called back against Chicago and a 16-yard screen called back against New England, both in the first half. He also had a 22-yard run called back against Chicago, but that was in the second half.

 

[percyhoward]

The Bears are averaging 3.196 yards per carry in the first half, excluding QB scrambles. There might be another team or other teams that are lower, too...

And by the way, STATS LLC's splits for Jones and Barber add up to 237 first-half yards, not 236...

After splitting all those hairs, and carrying it out to the thousandths of yards per carry, you must have eye strain.

None of that shows that our first half running game is any higher than 28th-30th, but you are trying.