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Which NFL team's first-round pick could surprise everyone on Thursday?
Miller: Las Vegas Raiders. One constant I keep hearing from people I trust is that the Raiders really do like Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and could select him at No. 13 overall. That would qualify as a surprise, despite the fact that Penix is a beautiful thrower from the pocket and has the best overall arm strength in this class. His medical history -- four straight season-ending injuries while at Indiana -- and his lack of mobility are concerns enough that he is ranked No. 40 on my board and is generally seen as a Day 2 prospect, but the buzz here is starting to heat up connecting the Raiders to him in Round 1. Las Vegas signed Gardner Minshew, but this team was 26th in QBR last season (40.1) and needs a long-term solution.
Reid: Los Angeles Rams. How could you not choose the team that has a first-round pick for the first time since 2016? The Rams are in an interesting spot at No. 19 overall. Pass-rusher is an obvious need, but Alabama's Dallas Turner, UCLA's Laiatu Latu and Florida State's Jared Verse might all be off the board. So while many expect Los Angeles to pursue edge rushing help, I think it could look elsewhere and get help either along the interior defensive line or at cornerback -- even after signing veterans in Tre'Davious White and Darious Williams at the latter spot. There are a lot of options at play for the Rams.
Yates: Atlanta Falcons. Outside of the three quarterbacks at the top of the draft, I'd venture to guess that no player has been mocked to a specific team as frequently as Turner has been paired with the Falcons. So with that in mind, anything but Turner to Atlanta at No. 8 would qualify as a surprise. The fit makes too much sense for me to discount it, factoring in Turner's traits and the Falcons' massive need. But there are other options Atlanta could reasonably consider at that spot, including cornerback or wide receiver depending on how the board falls.
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Name a late riser who could sneak into Round 1.
Reid: Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU. "He's athletic, experienced at both tackle spots and will be 21 throughout his rookie year," an AFC executive told me. "Sign me up for that in the first round any day of the week!" After spending his first season at Oregon, Suamataia landed at BYU in 2022, where he started 12 games at right tackle and 11 at left tackle. He seemingly has all of the traits that scouts covet, as he plays with suddenness, power and awareness. Suamataia -- ranked No. 37 on my board -- just has to get stronger and play with more consistent technique. At the back end of the first round, the Ravens (No. 30) and 49ers (No. 31) are two landing spots that make a lot of sense.
Yates: Braden Fiske, DT, Florida State. There isn't much more that Fiske could do to help his draft stock. He had six sacks over his final five games in college, wrecking shop in key moments for the Seminoles. Fiske then carried that momentum into the Senior Bowl and combine, standing out at both events. His explosiveness is among the best in the entire class and for sure gives him a chance to be a late-Round 1 pick. Should he still be on the board in Round 2, his overall size (he's 292 pounds with 31-inch arms) and age (he turned 24 in January) are the most likely factors. I have Fiske ranked No. 39 overall on my final board.
Miller: Marshawn Kneeland, EDGE, Western Michigan. Every year there is a player who rises into Round 1 based on scheme fit and team need. This year, my bet is on that being Kneeland. The 6-foot-3, 267-pound senior had 36 pressures in 2023 and a very strong pre-draft process at the Senior Bowl and combine. His size, strength and run-defending abilities make him one of the few true 4-3 defensive ends ranked in my top 50 (No. 48). And Kneeland could be a target for teams like Tampa Bay, Buffalo or even San Francisco late in Round 1.
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How legit is the Malik Nabers over Marvin Harrison Jr. talk?
Yates: It's legit because there are NFL teams that simply prefer LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers in a vacuum over Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr. There just are. But ultimately, it's not a matter of whether Harrison or Nabers is viewed as the better player by the majority of the league -- it's a matter of which team will begin the wide receiver run at the draft, because it only takes one. My sense is that if Harrison goes ahead of Nabers -- even by just one spot -- there will be people in the court of public opinion who'll dismiss that the chatter was ever even real. I'm here to say it is real. I personally have Harrison at No. 3 overall and Nabers right behind him at No. 4, though.
Reid: Yeah, it's very real because some teams feel Nabers' after-the-catch ability gives him an advantage. Offensive systems that value receivers who can create new opportunities once the ball is in their possession might like Nabers more. There isn't a wideout in this draft class who can flip the scoreboard as quickly as the former LSU target because of his explosive traits, as he had 595 yards after the catch last season, 10th in the country. I'm the only one here who has Harrison at No. 1 overall, but Nabers is still No. 3 on my board.
Miller: I agree with you both -- for some teams this is possible. But I've talked to others on calls over the past week who say that Harrison is the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver. And still yet, others prefer Washington's Rome Odunze. It all comes down to scheme fit and style preference, and it's a credit to the talent of all three receivers that they're being grouped so closely together. My board stacks them back-to-back-to-back, with Harrison edging Odunze and Nabers in that order.
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What else are you hearing with under one week to go?
Miller's notebook:
- There are a lot of Drake Maye believers out there. In a call with an NFC North scout this week, we talked about the North Carolina quarterback's upside and physical traits. This scout believes Maye is the "clear-cut QB2 and not far behind QB1" in this class. The scout said, "Maye's arm, mobility ... those are all things you can't coach, and then you add in that he's so raw. Teams think they can take him to the moon once he's developed." That doesn't likely affect how early Maye goes, since everyone I've talked to believes he'll be no worse than the third pick in the draft as of now. But the talk over the past month that teams might not be as high on him as most people think is certainly not a consensus viewpoint.
- Here's a name to keep an eye on when the draft gets rolling: Mississippi State cornerback Decamerion Richardson. In chats with scouts this week, his name consistently came up as a favorite of staffs once draft meetings were finalized. The 6-foot-2, 188-pounder led all SEC corners in tackles the past two seasons (136) and is a man coverage expert. Scouts believe he's a potential Round 3 selection.
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Reid's notebook:
- Verse being picked inside the top 12 isn't out of the question. Evaluators are really enamored with his floor and the pro-readiness of his game. Because of Verse's reliability against the run and continued improvement as a pass-rusher, there are some teams that feel he's the best of the bunch at the position right now. With heavy hands, his ability to consistently set the edge is evident on tape. The steps that Verse has made since transferring to FSU from Albany have many believing that he's only going to continue to get better, too.
- Illinois defensive tackle Jer'Zhan Newton had his pro day workout for scouts on Tuesday. He only participated in positional drills, but this was the first time Newton took the field since Illinois' season finale against Northwestern. "He looked really good considering he's fresh off of surgery a few months ago [in January]," said an NFC area scout who was in attendance. "I still believe he goes in the back end of Round 1 because the tape is too good." Texas' Byron Murphy II is still expected to be the first interior defender off the board, but with many teams searching for help inside, Newton could still find himself getting picked on Day 1. He ended at No. 25 on my board.
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Yates' notebook:
- One idea that people around the NFL have bandied about with me is whether the Cardinals would want to ensure they have a trade back up the order set after a trade down. For example, if they moved down from No. 4 to No. 11, they might want to have a move from No. 11 back into the top 10 in place. The reason? While there is great depth in this wide receiver class, moving outside the top 10 picks will likely cost Arizona any shot at Harrison, Nabers or Odunze.
- A pair of offensive tackles who I think have a real chance to land late in Round 3 are Caedan Wallace (Penn State) and Matt Goncalves (Pittsburgh). Goncalves had an injury-shortened 2023 season due to a toe issue but has good experience starting at both tackle spots in college. Wallace -- who surrendered just one sack this past season -- has 40 career starts (all at right tackle) and very good length. They check in at No. 114 (Wallace) and No. 115 (Goncalves) in my top 200, but I think they could each hear their names called a bit higher.
Miller: Las Vegas Raiders. One constant I keep hearing from people I trust is that the Raiders really do like Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and could select him at No. 13 overall. That would qualify as a surprise, despite the fact that Penix is a beautiful thrower from the pocket and has the best overall arm strength in this class. His medical history -- four straight season-ending injuries while at Indiana -- and his lack of mobility are concerns enough that he is ranked No. 40 on my board and is generally seen as a Day 2 prospect, but the buzz here is starting to heat up connecting the Raiders to him in Round 1. Las Vegas signed Gardner Minshew, but this team was 26th in QBR last season (40.1) and needs a long-term solution.
Reid: Los Angeles Rams. How could you not choose the team that has a first-round pick for the first time since 2016? The Rams are in an interesting spot at No. 19 overall. Pass-rusher is an obvious need, but Alabama's Dallas Turner, UCLA's Laiatu Latu and Florida State's Jared Verse might all be off the board. So while many expect Los Angeles to pursue edge rushing help, I think it could look elsewhere and get help either along the interior defensive line or at cornerback -- even after signing veterans in Tre'Davious White and Darious Williams at the latter spot. There are a lot of options at play for the Rams.
Yates: Atlanta Falcons. Outside of the three quarterbacks at the top of the draft, I'd venture to guess that no player has been mocked to a specific team as frequently as Turner has been paired with the Falcons. So with that in mind, anything but Turner to Atlanta at No. 8 would qualify as a surprise. The fit makes too much sense for me to discount it, factoring in Turner's traits and the Falcons' massive need. But there are other options Atlanta could reasonably consider at that spot, including cornerback or wide receiver depending on how the board falls.
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Name a late riser who could sneak into Round 1.
Reid: Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU. "He's athletic, experienced at both tackle spots and will be 21 throughout his rookie year," an AFC executive told me. "Sign me up for that in the first round any day of the week!" After spending his first season at Oregon, Suamataia landed at BYU in 2022, where he started 12 games at right tackle and 11 at left tackle. He seemingly has all of the traits that scouts covet, as he plays with suddenness, power and awareness. Suamataia -- ranked No. 37 on my board -- just has to get stronger and play with more consistent technique. At the back end of the first round, the Ravens (No. 30) and 49ers (No. 31) are two landing spots that make a lot of sense.
Yates: Braden Fiske, DT, Florida State. There isn't much more that Fiske could do to help his draft stock. He had six sacks over his final five games in college, wrecking shop in key moments for the Seminoles. Fiske then carried that momentum into the Senior Bowl and combine, standing out at both events. His explosiveness is among the best in the entire class and for sure gives him a chance to be a late-Round 1 pick. Should he still be on the board in Round 2, his overall size (he's 292 pounds with 31-inch arms) and age (he turned 24 in January) are the most likely factors. I have Fiske ranked No. 39 overall on my final board.
Miller: Marshawn Kneeland, EDGE, Western Michigan. Every year there is a player who rises into Round 1 based on scheme fit and team need. This year, my bet is on that being Kneeland. The 6-foot-3, 267-pound senior had 36 pressures in 2023 and a very strong pre-draft process at the Senior Bowl and combine. His size, strength and run-defending abilities make him one of the few true 4-3 defensive ends ranked in my top 50 (No. 48). And Kneeland could be a target for teams like Tampa Bay, Buffalo or even San Francisco late in Round 1.
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How legit is the Malik Nabers over Marvin Harrison Jr. talk?
Yates: It's legit because there are NFL teams that simply prefer LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers in a vacuum over Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr. There just are. But ultimately, it's not a matter of whether Harrison or Nabers is viewed as the better player by the majority of the league -- it's a matter of which team will begin the wide receiver run at the draft, because it only takes one. My sense is that if Harrison goes ahead of Nabers -- even by just one spot -- there will be people in the court of public opinion who'll dismiss that the chatter was ever even real. I'm here to say it is real. I personally have Harrison at No. 3 overall and Nabers right behind him at No. 4, though.
Reid: Yeah, it's very real because some teams feel Nabers' after-the-catch ability gives him an advantage. Offensive systems that value receivers who can create new opportunities once the ball is in their possession might like Nabers more. There isn't a wideout in this draft class who can flip the scoreboard as quickly as the former LSU target because of his explosive traits, as he had 595 yards after the catch last season, 10th in the country. I'm the only one here who has Harrison at No. 1 overall, but Nabers is still No. 3 on my board.
Miller: I agree with you both -- for some teams this is possible. But I've talked to others on calls over the past week who say that Harrison is the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver. And still yet, others prefer Washington's Rome Odunze. It all comes down to scheme fit and style preference, and it's a credit to the talent of all three receivers that they're being grouped so closely together. My board stacks them back-to-back-to-back, with Harrison edging Odunze and Nabers in that order.
-
What else are you hearing with under one week to go?
Miller's notebook:
- There are a lot of Drake Maye believers out there. In a call with an NFC North scout this week, we talked about the North Carolina quarterback's upside and physical traits. This scout believes Maye is the "clear-cut QB2 and not far behind QB1" in this class. The scout said, "Maye's arm, mobility ... those are all things you can't coach, and then you add in that he's so raw. Teams think they can take him to the moon once he's developed." That doesn't likely affect how early Maye goes, since everyone I've talked to believes he'll be no worse than the third pick in the draft as of now. But the talk over the past month that teams might not be as high on him as most people think is certainly not a consensus viewpoint.
- Here's a name to keep an eye on when the draft gets rolling: Mississippi State cornerback Decamerion Richardson. In chats with scouts this week, his name consistently came up as a favorite of staffs once draft meetings were finalized. The 6-foot-2, 188-pounder led all SEC corners in tackles the past two seasons (136) and is a man coverage expert. Scouts believe he's a potential Round 3 selection.
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Reid's notebook:
- Verse being picked inside the top 12 isn't out of the question. Evaluators are really enamored with his floor and the pro-readiness of his game. Because of Verse's reliability against the run and continued improvement as a pass-rusher, there are some teams that feel he's the best of the bunch at the position right now. With heavy hands, his ability to consistently set the edge is evident on tape. The steps that Verse has made since transferring to FSU from Albany have many believing that he's only going to continue to get better, too.
- Illinois defensive tackle Jer'Zhan Newton had his pro day workout for scouts on Tuesday. He only participated in positional drills, but this was the first time Newton took the field since Illinois' season finale against Northwestern. "He looked really good considering he's fresh off of surgery a few months ago [in January]," said an NFC area scout who was in attendance. "I still believe he goes in the back end of Round 1 because the tape is too good." Texas' Byron Murphy II is still expected to be the first interior defender off the board, but with many teams searching for help inside, Newton could still find himself getting picked on Day 1. He ended at No. 25 on my board.
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Yates' notebook:
- One idea that people around the NFL have bandied about with me is whether the Cardinals would want to ensure they have a trade back up the order set after a trade down. For example, if they moved down from No. 4 to No. 11, they might want to have a move from No. 11 back into the top 10 in place. The reason? While there is great depth in this wide receiver class, moving outside the top 10 picks will likely cost Arizona any shot at Harrison, Nabers or Odunze.
- A pair of offensive tackles who I think have a real chance to land late in Round 3 are Caedan Wallace (Penn State) and Matt Goncalves (Pittsburgh). Goncalves had an injury-shortened 2023 season due to a toe issue but has good experience starting at both tackle spots in college. Wallace -- who surrendered just one sack this past season -- has 40 career starts (all at right tackle) and very good length. They check in at No. 114 (Wallace) and No. 115 (Goncalves) in my top 200, but I think they could each hear their names called a bit higher.
