Four stats that will determine if this team is better or not

[RonWashington]

To me it’s simple . The NFL under Goodfella thinks defense is a dirty word so the kickoff to pin the other team down is more difficult then an FBI back ground check . Last season the defense was the worst at stopping anyone . Heck Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals pinned 27 on Dallas and it was a Cowboy home game.

This defense in 26 has to stop offenses period so the offense can crank up and put distance on the scoreboard . Easier said then done when teams are starting out at about the 38 yard line seemingly .

 

[Gambit]

My gosh,
The never come from behind after trailing at halftime OR 3rd quarter stats are really bad.

Like hard to accept bad.
Pathetic.

Cheers to leading at the half and after 3 quarters then...
In '26...
I hope.

P.S.Does this mean it's safe to say Dallas is not a come from behind team?

Philly may feel differently

 

[Bobhaze]

Great post Bob. Always enjoy your threads.

Your arguments show why raw stat totals like yards or points don’t tell the whole story. Momentum, clock control and play calling flexibility are all governed more by *when* you score and *how* you score.

A stat that I really started paying attention to last year was red zone touchdown efficiency. It is just what it sounds like, and I think it may be the root behind some of the “must improve” needs in your first three bullets.

The reality is that in the first half, if you’re trading field goals for touchdowns, you can find yourself with halftime scores like 17-9 or 14-6 and then your chasing, you have to open up the offense, you run less and eat up less of the clock.

Look at how the league stacks up when it comes to converting these trips into seven points instead of three, using the top team, us, and the bottom of the barrel.

• Elite: The Eagles led league at 70.2% TD conversion rate. That gets you out in front early, or at least keeps pace if the defense is struggling.
• Average (The Cowboys): We landed dead csnter in 2025 at 56.9% (16th). Being average is a major reason why we struggled to hold onto leads or have a cushion going into the fourth quarter.
• Bad: The Saints were dead last at 44.4%.

When you look at our 2024 season, we were in the gutter. We were second to last at 46%. we couldn’t score first and trailed at halftime way too often.

Last year was an improvement, but it just made us average. Leaving that many points on the table inside the 20-yard line is why we couldn't put teams away, or had a bigger mountain to climb, which shows in those brutal fourth quarter numbers you showed.

Bottom line, while having a weapon like Aubrey is great when we’re at the 35, we dont want to be running him out there when we are at the 10. If we want to be a contender, the best way to solve the problems you mentioned is to get our red zone TD percentage in the 65% range.

Yes, that’s only 5 TDs instead of FGs and a net 20 point improvement over last year but we lost two games by 4 points or less. In both of them, Aubrey kicked a FG in the red zone. A TD might have made a difference. It would have had us tied with the Eagles late in a game we lost and it would have beat Carolina.

Season	2024	2025
RZ TD %	46%	56.9%
Rank	31st	16th
RZ Trips	50	65
RZ TDs	23	37
Field Goals	18	17
4th down fail/Turkovers	9	11

Outstanding post Kwyn. Great info here. ^^^

One of my biggest concerns going into this upcoming season centers on our front office seemingly being completely focused on our defense. And it needed the lion’s share of help, I get it.

But I am never comfortable with looking at one side of the ball and just assuming, “We were good last year, so let’s just bring the same guys back and we’ll be good again.” The problem with that thinking is most teams in the NFL never stay the same.

Maybe our offense will be even better than last year. But a lot of those good stats on offense last yr happened when we were behind and the defenses were giving you yards to eat time.

As you clearly showed our red zone scoring was ok, not great and way too many FGs. Will be interesting to see if that stat improves this year.

 

[Kwyn]

We may have been dead last in starting position too, any improvement would be appreciated

Thanks for posting. Another measurement that goes to game control.

A yard and a half may not sound like much but it’s a big deal across a 17 game season

• Longest field in football
• Defense giving up points like crazy meant more kickoffs deep and fewer returned punts
• Reliance on a badly coached and undisciplined special teams unit

 

[DandyDon52]

If we are truly a better, more competitive team in 2026, here are 4 simple statistical areas where we MUST show improvement. These hidden stats are often the difference between good teams, mediocre teams, and bad teams.

1. Score first. (Teams that score first in the NFL win 64% of the time)
2. Have the lead at halftime. (Teams leading at half win 75% of the time)
3. Have the lead going into 4th quarter. (Teams lead going into 4th qtr win 90% of time)
4. Getting defensive stops after scoring; OR not allowing opening drive points in either half. (Not allowing a score after we score OR not allowing a score to start both halves)

WHY is this important? Look at how we played the last two seasons in the above 4 areas:

• Scoring first- In 2024 and ‘25, the Cowboys had a collective record of 14-19-1. We scored first in only 16 of those 34 games. That MUST improve.
• Being ahead at half - In 2024, we trailed at the half 10 times, losing 9 of those games. In 2025, we also trailed at the half 10 times, losing 8, winning 1 (in OT) and tying the other. So in the last 34 games, we have trailed at the half 20 times, losing 17 of them and tie in one, and winning 2. Ouch!
• Leading going into the 4th qtr - In 2024 the Cowboys trailed at the end of the 3rd qtr 11 times, losing 10 of those games, and got outscored 82-28 in 3rd qtrs. In 2025 we also trailed 10 games after 3 qtrs, going 1-8-1 in those games. In the last 34 games, we have trailed going into the 4th qtr 21 times, going 2-18-1 in those games. Wow.
• We must improve defensively by not allowing the opponent to score on their first possessions at the beginning of the game and after halftime. Our defense allowed the opponent to score on their opening drive of the game and the first drive of the 2nd half nearly 60% of the time. Cut that down to about 20-25% and we are vastly improved.

So it’s pretty clear if we improve in the above four areas, this team will be vastly better than the two year record of 14-19-1. If not, another non-playoff year.

We will start learning about this team for real in about a week. Everything leading up to it is either hope or hype. The first game is only approximately 6% of the season so it will take a few games to see new patterns.

Bob I did a screen cap of this post , and will refer to it during any game I watch (if I dont forget lol)
curious to see how it works out.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

If we are truly a better, more competitive team in 2026, here are 4 simple statistical areas where we MUST show improvement. These hidden stats are often the difference between good teams, mediocre teams, and bad teams.

1. Score first. (Teams that score first in the NFL win 64% of the time)
2. Have the lead at halftime. (Teams leading at half win 75% of the time)
3. Have the lead going into 4th quarter. (Teams lead going into 4th qtr win 90% of time)
4. Getting defensive stops after scoring; OR not allowing opening drive points in either half. (Not allowing a score after we score OR not allowing a score to start both halves)

WHY is this important? Look at how we played the last two seasons in the above 4 areas:

• Scoring first- In 2024 and ‘25, the Cowboys had a collective record of 14-19-1. We scored first in only 16 of those 34 games. That MUST improve.
• Being ahead at half - In 2024, we trailed at the half 10 times, losing 9 of those games. In 2025, we also trailed at the half 10 times, losing 8, winning 1 (in OT) and tying the other. So in the last 34 games, we have trailed at the half 20 times, losing 17 of them and tie in one, and winning 2. Ouch!
• Leading going into the 4th qtr - In 2024 the Cowboys trailed at the end of the 3rd qtr 11 times, losing 10 of those games, and got outscored 82-28 in 3rd qtrs. In 2025 we also trailed 10 games after 3 qtrs, going 1-8-1 in those games. In the last 34 games, we have trailed going into the 4th qtr 21 times, going 2-18-1 in those games. Wow.
• We must improve defensively by not allowing the opponent to score on their first possessions at the beginning of the game and after halftime. Our defense allowed the opponent to score on their opening drive of the game and the first drive of the 2nd half nearly 60% of the time. Cut that down to about 20-25% and we are vastly improved.

So it’s pretty clear if we improve in the above four areas, this team will be vastly better than the two year record of 14-19-1. If not, another non-playoff year.

We will start learning about this team for real in about a week. Everything leading up to it is either hope or hype. The first game is only approximately 6% of the season so it will take a few games to see new patterns.

that's pretty good and pretty true, but I think those are more end results. how do we accomplish that?

convert redzone opportunities. how we do that is by running the ball effectively in the redzone. things get tight down there. passing is more difficult. everything is jammed together. there is no deep cover 3 saftey...they are within 15 yards of the line.

and be good in 3rd downs on defense. if you are good iin 3rd downs on defense, then we stop them from scoring first and scoring much. how we do that is get them into 3rd and longer situations. and how we do that is manage 1st downs and stop the run.

do those two things and we score more and give up less and be ahead in the half and into the 4th quarer.

 

[McKDaddy]

but I think those are more end results. how do we accomplish that?

 

[ghst187]

That's a good one.

We have fun here

 

[Verdict]

We may have been dead last in starting position too, any improvement would be appreciated

And yet didn’t we retain the special teams coach and the returner?

 

[Whirlwin]

Did anyone mention injuries, lol
Just saying

 

[TequilaCowboy]

I would just say to come in well prepared and aggressive. Dictate the flow of the game early. How many times last season did we see them get run off the field in the first quarter and routed the remainder of the game? Blown completely out.