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How to find football talent
Mike Detillier Published: Sunday, April 12, 2009 at 6:01 a.m.
Last Modified: Saturday, April 11, 2009 at 11:33 p.m.
After finally finishing up my 2009 NFL draft guide and the mailout issues that normally take a considerable amount of time to finish, I came across some notes I had made while interviewing then-New Orleans Saints general manager Jim Finks about the upcoming draft in March of 1988.
The future NFL Hall of Fame executive was famous for saying that the draft was the biggest crapshoot in pro sports.
Finks, who had been a general manager with the Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears and the New Orleans Saints, proclaimed that the NFL draft was the most important part in building an team, but also said that there wasn't a clear formula in picking the right football players for any team.
"There are no draft wizards or gurus that can predict how each player can turn out," Finks said. "I will say that there are people out there that have a skill set for seeing something in a player or you might say the right stuff you want in a player and they have a real strong batting average in projecting how they will end up in the league, but there is no personnel genius in pro football or in college football. I think in the college ranks finding players that fit the particular scheme you are running is more important than in the pros. But just like a really good stockbroker can predict ahead of time on which stock you should invest in for a period of time, you just can't do it year after year. You can't accurately predict human nature or how money and fame will change a person. There is still a great unknown about evaluating talent in this business and there always will be. Injuries also get involved in future success and also being in the right scheme is a help. With all that said the human nature element or the "X" factor is always an equation that will always go unanswered."
Finks did acknowledge a few factors or football trends that he truly believed in.
"I have always felt that you have a better percentage on hitting when picking linemen, offensive or defensive, than on selecting a wide receiver, running back or even a quarterback in the top rounds. I am not saying it is a one hundred percent system, but the percentages are much higher than at those other spots."
The other trend he saw in 1998 is that the most successful college teams often produce the most pro players.
"It is rare that you find a school that from year to year can produce a host of pro players and they aren't playing in a major bowl game or for the national championship," Finks said. "It is alarming to me at this stage of my life to see the amount of money that is being funneled into some of these college programs, but what I have seen over the last ten to twelve years is that the schools that have success can generate more money into their program and they have the best coaches, the best training staffs, the best weight-rooms, and the best practice facilities. Find the teams that consistently play for the national title or in major bowl games and you find where a lot of talent entering the NFL is coming from. There are exceptions to that rule. If you look at Walter Payton (Jackson State) or Jerry Rice (Mississippi Valley), Richard Dent (Tennessee State) or even Sam Mills (Montclair State) and you can see where players do fall through the major school cracks or sometimes they physically mature later in life. At times it is a size issue and many schools just will not recruit a player if he is not a certain size or weight. There are always exceptions, but as this process gets more involved just watch in the next five to ten years and see how the major colleges propel players into the league at a tremendously higher rate than a Grambling, Southern (LA.), Western Illinois, Northwestern State (LA.) or a Jackson State because of the money used to have the best facilities, the best coaching staffs and time and the process of recruiting changes. Also in the NFL a lot of coaches don't want to take the time to develop a player, but that is a story for another day."
Thinking about what Jim Finks said 20 years ago is even more evident today.
Yes, the small college performers still make an impact in the league, but it is the colleges that play for national championships each year that produce the most NFL football players.
In the past ten years, there has been only five players, cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Tennessee State), quarterback Joe Flacco (Delaware), wide receiver Sylvester Morris (Jackson State), cornerback Rashard Anderson (Jackson State) and defensive end Lamar King (Saginaw Valley State) that have been first round choices from FCS schools.
The schools that have consistently played in major bowl games and for the college national championships have had the most players selected in the first round of the draft.
Here are the colleges that have sent the most pro players drafted into the NFL from 2004-2008.
— Ohio State — 37 players (11 first-round picks)
— USC — 36 players (nine first-round picks)
— Miami (Fla.) — 31 players (12 first-round picks)
— Florida State — 30 players (seven first round picks)
— LSU — 29 players (eight first-round picks)
— Virginia Tech — 28 players (three first-round picks)
— Oklahoma — 27 players (five first-round picks)
— Georgia — 26 players (three first-round picks)
— Texas — 25 players (eight first-round picks)
— Michigan — 23 players (five first-round picks)
— Auburn — 23 players (five first-round picks)
— Florida — 22 players (three first-round picks)
— Tennessee — 21 players (four first-round picks)
— California — 21 players (two first-round picks)
Is it a shock that these colleges, which are consistently rated at the top of the recruiting classes every year, are playing for the national championship and then sending a host of players in the NFL?
The answer is no and this year's draft class isn't an exception.
In my NFL draft book, I do a feature every year on the top players in the NFL today. The voting comes from wide ranging view of the game, but it also shows the dominance of the bigger colleges in their efforts to supply the NFL with talent.
In the voting of 12 college and pro scouts, league officials and coaches, the top 15 vote getters were Peyton Manning (Tennessee), Adrian Peterson (Oklahoma), Larry Fitzgerald (Pittsburgh), DeMarcus Ware (Troy), Ed Reed (Miami (Fla.), Tom Brady (Michigan), Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee), Drew Brees (Purdue), Nnamdi Asomugha (California), James Harrison (Kent State), Andre Johnson (Miami (Fla.), Troy Polamalu (USC), Kevin Williams (Oklahoma State), Shawne Merriman (Maryland) and Mario Williams (North Carolina State).
With the exception of Ware from Troy and Harrison from Kent State, all the other top 13 players came from major college teams.
Over the last 10 years, LSU is a great example of a program that has recruited the best prep players and then developed them into top pro prospects.
From 1999-2003, the Tigers had 17 players drafted into the NFL and only one first round choice.
From 2004 thru 2008, the Tigers have produced 29 players drafted into the league with eight first round draft choices.
That type of recruiting and development of players helped LSU win two BCS national championships and put them in a prime position for major bowl games every year.
While this year's LSU class will only have one first round selection in defensive end Tyson Jackson, the Tigers will have as many as nine other players selected from rounds 3-7 in linebacker Darry Beckwith, defensive tackle Ricky Jean-Francois, offensive guard Herman Johnson, fullback Quinn Johnson, wide receiver Demetrius Byrd, safety Curtis Taylor, center Brett Helms, defensive end Kirston Pittman and defensive tackle Marlon Favorite.
It shouldn't be a shock that Ole Miss, a team that went 9-4 in 2008, will have two first round choices in offensive tackle Michael Oher and defensive tackle Peria Jerry. The Rebels haven't had two players selected in the first round since the NFL and AFL merged their drafts in 1967.
While Florida looks like the consensus pick to win the SEC East title in 2009, Ole Miss is the favorite of many experts to win the SEC West title this season due to the great amount of returning talent on the squad.
Connecticut, a school more noted for their basketball program than in football, was 8-5 last season, but they will have four players — cornerback Darius Butler, offensive tackle William Beatty, halfback Donald Brown and defensive end/outside linebacker Cody Brown — that will be within the top 70 players drafted this month.
The University of Cincinnati, who has one of the top coaches in college football running the show in Brian Kelly, is coming off an 11-3 record in 2008. The Bearcats will have five players selected within the top 140 players in the 2009 draft.
Like Jim Finks said 20 years ago, find the schools that win at the college level and you will find where a lot of the NFL talent is coming from.
NFL analyst Mike Detillier is based in Raceland.
Mike Detillier Published: Sunday, April 12, 2009 at 6:01 a.m.
Last Modified: Saturday, April 11, 2009 at 11:33 p.m.
After finally finishing up my 2009 NFL draft guide and the mailout issues that normally take a considerable amount of time to finish, I came across some notes I had made while interviewing then-New Orleans Saints general manager Jim Finks about the upcoming draft in March of 1988.
The future NFL Hall of Fame executive was famous for saying that the draft was the biggest crapshoot in pro sports.
Finks, who had been a general manager with the Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears and the New Orleans Saints, proclaimed that the NFL draft was the most important part in building an team, but also said that there wasn't a clear formula in picking the right football players for any team.
"There are no draft wizards or gurus that can predict how each player can turn out," Finks said. "I will say that there are people out there that have a skill set for seeing something in a player or you might say the right stuff you want in a player and they have a real strong batting average in projecting how they will end up in the league, but there is no personnel genius in pro football or in college football. I think in the college ranks finding players that fit the particular scheme you are running is more important than in the pros. But just like a really good stockbroker can predict ahead of time on which stock you should invest in for a period of time, you just can't do it year after year. You can't accurately predict human nature or how money and fame will change a person. There is still a great unknown about evaluating talent in this business and there always will be. Injuries also get involved in future success and also being in the right scheme is a help. With all that said the human nature element or the "X" factor is always an equation that will always go unanswered."
Finks did acknowledge a few factors or football trends that he truly believed in.
"I have always felt that you have a better percentage on hitting when picking linemen, offensive or defensive, than on selecting a wide receiver, running back or even a quarterback in the top rounds. I am not saying it is a one hundred percent system, but the percentages are much higher than at those other spots."
The other trend he saw in 1998 is that the most successful college teams often produce the most pro players.
"It is rare that you find a school that from year to year can produce a host of pro players and they aren't playing in a major bowl game or for the national championship," Finks said. "It is alarming to me at this stage of my life to see the amount of money that is being funneled into some of these college programs, but what I have seen over the last ten to twelve years is that the schools that have success can generate more money into their program and they have the best coaches, the best training staffs, the best weight-rooms, and the best practice facilities. Find the teams that consistently play for the national title or in major bowl games and you find where a lot of talent entering the NFL is coming from. There are exceptions to that rule. If you look at Walter Payton (Jackson State) or Jerry Rice (Mississippi Valley), Richard Dent (Tennessee State) or even Sam Mills (Montclair State) and you can see where players do fall through the major school cracks or sometimes they physically mature later in life. At times it is a size issue and many schools just will not recruit a player if he is not a certain size or weight. There are always exceptions, but as this process gets more involved just watch in the next five to ten years and see how the major colleges propel players into the league at a tremendously higher rate than a Grambling, Southern (LA.), Western Illinois, Northwestern State (LA.) or a Jackson State because of the money used to have the best facilities, the best coaching staffs and time and the process of recruiting changes. Also in the NFL a lot of coaches don't want to take the time to develop a player, but that is a story for another day."
Thinking about what Jim Finks said 20 years ago is even more evident today.
Yes, the small college performers still make an impact in the league, but it is the colleges that play for national championships each year that produce the most NFL football players.
In the past ten years, there has been only five players, cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Tennessee State), quarterback Joe Flacco (Delaware), wide receiver Sylvester Morris (Jackson State), cornerback Rashard Anderson (Jackson State) and defensive end Lamar King (Saginaw Valley State) that have been first round choices from FCS schools.
The schools that have consistently played in major bowl games and for the college national championships have had the most players selected in the first round of the draft.
Here are the colleges that have sent the most pro players drafted into the NFL from 2004-2008.
— Ohio State — 37 players (11 first-round picks)
— USC — 36 players (nine first-round picks)
— Miami (Fla.) — 31 players (12 first-round picks)
— Florida State — 30 players (seven first round picks)
— LSU — 29 players (eight first-round picks)
— Virginia Tech — 28 players (three first-round picks)
— Oklahoma — 27 players (five first-round picks)
— Georgia — 26 players (three first-round picks)
— Texas — 25 players (eight first-round picks)
— Michigan — 23 players (five first-round picks)
— Auburn — 23 players (five first-round picks)
— Florida — 22 players (three first-round picks)
— Tennessee — 21 players (four first-round picks)
— California — 21 players (two first-round picks)
Is it a shock that these colleges, which are consistently rated at the top of the recruiting classes every year, are playing for the national championship and then sending a host of players in the NFL?
The answer is no and this year's draft class isn't an exception.
In my NFL draft book, I do a feature every year on the top players in the NFL today. The voting comes from wide ranging view of the game, but it also shows the dominance of the bigger colleges in their efforts to supply the NFL with talent.
In the voting of 12 college and pro scouts, league officials and coaches, the top 15 vote getters were Peyton Manning (Tennessee), Adrian Peterson (Oklahoma), Larry Fitzgerald (Pittsburgh), DeMarcus Ware (Troy), Ed Reed (Miami (Fla.), Tom Brady (Michigan), Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee), Drew Brees (Purdue), Nnamdi Asomugha (California), James Harrison (Kent State), Andre Johnson (Miami (Fla.), Troy Polamalu (USC), Kevin Williams (Oklahoma State), Shawne Merriman (Maryland) and Mario Williams (North Carolina State).
With the exception of Ware from Troy and Harrison from Kent State, all the other top 13 players came from major college teams.
Over the last 10 years, LSU is a great example of a program that has recruited the best prep players and then developed them into top pro prospects.
From 1999-2003, the Tigers had 17 players drafted into the NFL and only one first round choice.
From 2004 thru 2008, the Tigers have produced 29 players drafted into the league with eight first round draft choices.
That type of recruiting and development of players helped LSU win two BCS national championships and put them in a prime position for major bowl games every year.
While this year's LSU class will only have one first round selection in defensive end Tyson Jackson, the Tigers will have as many as nine other players selected from rounds 3-7 in linebacker Darry Beckwith, defensive tackle Ricky Jean-Francois, offensive guard Herman Johnson, fullback Quinn Johnson, wide receiver Demetrius Byrd, safety Curtis Taylor, center Brett Helms, defensive end Kirston Pittman and defensive tackle Marlon Favorite.
It shouldn't be a shock that Ole Miss, a team that went 9-4 in 2008, will have two first round choices in offensive tackle Michael Oher and defensive tackle Peria Jerry. The Rebels haven't had two players selected in the first round since the NFL and AFL merged their drafts in 1967.
While Florida looks like the consensus pick to win the SEC East title in 2009, Ole Miss is the favorite of many experts to win the SEC West title this season due to the great amount of returning talent on the squad.
Connecticut, a school more noted for their basketball program than in football, was 8-5 last season, but they will have four players — cornerback Darius Butler, offensive tackle William Beatty, halfback Donald Brown and defensive end/outside linebacker Cody Brown — that will be within the top 70 players drafted this month.
The University of Cincinnati, who has one of the top coaches in college football running the show in Brian Kelly, is coming off an 11-3 record in 2008. The Bearcats will have five players selected within the top 140 players in the 2009 draft.
Like Jim Finks said 20 years ago, find the schools that win at the college level and you will find where a lot of the NFL talent is coming from.
NFL analyst Mike Detillier is based in Raceland.