Iran War Clock: 10 Minutes to Midnight

[YosemiteSam]

War or peace in the Middle East amounts to a coin toss. The probability that the United States or Israel will strike Iran in the next year is 48 percent according to a new project that predicts the chances of conflict--the Iran War Clock. And as a result, the clock is set to 10 minutes to midnight.

How does the Iran War Clock work?

We've assembled a high-profile panel of experts from the policy world, academia, and journalism to periodically predict the odds of conflict. They include: Daniel Byman, Shahram Chubin, Golnaz Esfandiari, Azar Gat, Jeffrey Goldberg, Amos Harel, Ephraim Kam, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Matthew Kroenig, John Limbert, Valerie Lincy, James Lindsay, Marc Lynch, Gary Milhollin, Trita Parsi, Paul Pillar, Barry Rubin, Karim Sadjadpour, Kenneth Timmerman, Shibley Telhami, Stephen Walt, and Robin Wright.

It's a diverse group ranging from a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iran, to a Senior Vice President at the Council on Foreign Relations; from a Deputy Head of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, to a military correspondent at Haaretz.

Each panelist makes an individual estimate about the percentage chance of war and we report the average score. Based on this number, we adjust the Iran War Clock so that the hand moves closer to, or further away from, midnight.

If there is a zero percent chance of war, the clock hand is at 20 minutes to midnight. Each extra 5 percent chance of war moves the hand one minute closer to midnight. So, for instance, a 10 percent chance of war would set the clock at 18 minutes to midnight, and a 75 percent chance of war would set the clock at 5 minutes to midnight. We round up and down, so 48 percent is rounded up to 10 minutes to midnight.

Complete Story

Iran War Clock FAQ

InTrade War Market (Buy / Sell)

 

[DFWJC]

Which means sleeper cells all over the USA are now on alert.

 

[CowboyMcCoy]

Which means sleeper cells all over the USA are now on alert.

So how many of these terrorist countries have sleeper cells?

 

[arglebargle]

A couple of years ago, I saw a little article about the Israelis sending a couple of subs through the Suez Canal. Immediately, it rang the 'Aimed at Iran' bell, be it cruise missles or covert team delivery.

The Israeli Air Force's operational range would be stressed by a major strike into Iran. Lots of things could go wrong. And it's not a sure thing, even if things go right.

My money is on December 2012 to January 2013.

 

[burmafrd]

Whenever Israel is sure that Iran is about to get a bomb

 

[SaltwaterServr]

A couple of years ago, I saw a little article about the Israelis sending a couple of subs through the Suez Canal. Immediately, it rang the 'Aimed at Iran' bell, be it cruise missles or covert team delivery.

The Israeli Air Force's operational range would be stressed by a major strike into Iran. Lots of things could go wrong. And it's not a sure thing, even if things go right.

My money is on December 2012 to January 2013.

They fly in, deliver their ordinance, fly back out towards home, and request emergency refueling by US tankers based on our carrier in the area.

Logistics solved.

Iran sends up its birds to engage the Israelis while they're fueling with our tankers things could ugly in a hurry.

 

[CowboyMcCoy]

They fly in, deliver their ordinance, fly back out towards home, and request emergency refueling by US tankers based on our carrier in the area.

Logistics solved.

Iran sends up its birds to engage the Israelis while they're fueling with our tankers things could ugly in a hurry.

Dude, that's going to be our biggest mistake. That country's people aren't that bad. Like everyone there are a few bad apples. I just smell disaster if we start toying with Iran. And Israel will be the first to know what just hit them. The whole setting up of Israel could backfire in a hurry, but it could also have repercussions on us in a hurry too. I think mostly because they're able to fire a long range missile at us already, most likely. We're probably staring down the barrel of a few aimed at us, which is why we're acting defensive and using war-rhetoric. In the end, the business of war will be the downfall of this country. The good little mercenaries we once were....

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Seems like a cheap ripoff of the Doomsday Clock...

I can't see Iran using a nuke even when they make one. I know there's a general tendency to paint everyone as religious fanatics, but I don't think they want to be obliterated any more than anyone else. One thing people in power all have in common: They want to stay in power for as long as possible.

I will say this, I watch the McLaughlin group regularly, and a couple of weeks ago they asked the panel what they thought the odds of an Israeli strike were. Four of them said about 10 to 20% at most. But Mort Zuckerman, who is pretty wired in, said he thought it was more like 50%. That was a little alarming.

I just hope we've had strong and open communications with the Russias of the world on what will happen if things heat up over there.

 

[CowboyMcCoy]

Seems like a cheap ripoff of the Doomsday Clock...

I can't see Iran using a nuke even when they make one. I know there's a general tendency to paint everyone as religious fanatics, but I don't think they want to be obliterated any more than anyone else. One thing people in power all have in common: They want to stay in power for as long as possible.

I will say this, I watch the McLaughlin group regularly, and a couple of weeks ago they asked the panel what they thought the odds of an Israeli strike were. Four of them said about 10 to 20% at most. But Mort Zuckerman, who is pretty wired in, said he thought it was more like 50%. That was a little alarming.

I just hope we've had strong and open communications with the Russias of the world on what will happen if things heat up over there.

For the record, I disagree with Zuckerman on this issue in many ways. But here is one of his articles.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mort-zuckerman/iran-is-making-fools-of-e_b_184748.htmlan is making fools of everyone.

Partial article:
Even as it lies about its closeness to acquiring nuclear missiles, it continues to menace the political order throughout the Middle East, pressing on with rocketry and rearming Hamas and Hezbollah. And that mischief is nothing to what it will do if it is allowed to become a nuclear power.

Nuclear Iran will be a threat to US national security, worldwide energy security, the efficacy of multilateralism and the Non-Proliferation (NPT) Treaty. Having defied the world so brazenly, it might become overconfident enough to believe its conventional or proxy forces could operate without fear of serious reprisals from the US, Israel, or any other power. It will be emboldened to use terrorism to threaten or subvert others in the area -- especially those who might be inclined to pursue peace with Israel. Pro-Western Arab regimes such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the Gulf States sense the Iranian threat; and if Iran succeeds in going nuclear, they may decide to join Iran rather than fight it. And Iran, through its support for Hezbollah and Hamas and the Ba'ath Party in Iraq, has the capacity to put direct pressure on Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinians, and the Iraqis. Tens and perhaps hundreds of thousands would join radical Islamist groups in the belief that Islamism is on the march.

Fundamentally, a nuclear Iran represents a unique threat. The fear of mutually assured destruction has long restrained other nuclear powers. There is a real risk that Iran is not rational, that driven by its mad hatreds it will act in ways that are irrational, even self-destructive. Anti-Americanism is a cornerstone of the ideology of this Islamic State. The virulence of Iran's hostility is impervious to reason. "Death to America!" has provoked the Iranian street for over a quarter of a century and is the venom upon which an entire generation of Iranians has been raised. The dominant Ayatollah Khameini reiterates that Iran's differences with America are more fundamental than political differences. </snip>

 

[ologan]

They fly in, deliver their ordinance, fly back out towards home, and request emergency refueling by US tankers based on our carrier in the area.

Logistics solved.

Iran sends up its birds to engage the Israelis while they're fueling with our tankers things could ugly in a hurry.

And there's no CAP covering the refueling?

 

[zrinkill]

They fly in, deliver their ordinance, fly back out towards home, and request emergency refueling by US tankers based on our carrier in the area.

Logistics solved.

Iran sends up its birds to engage the Israelis while they're fueling with our tankers things could ugly in a hurry.

That would not catch us by surprise.

And Iran will not fight Israel head on, especially if any US ships are near.

 

[CowboyMcCoy]

That would not catch us by surprise.

And Iran will not fight Israel head on.

Israel is small in comparison to Iran, so I think the best way would be to hit them from the close exterior. Although I hope this doesn't happen. My lady friend is from Iran (although technically American) and one of the best guys I'll ever know went back to Israel a few years back. Man, what a crazy place we live in with worldly events. And it's funny how the people don't hate each other; it's the governments that want us to do that.