MissionCoach
Well-Known Member
- Messages
- 1,013
- Reaction score
- 289
I cannot dwell on the gnat game anymore...I can't analyze why we lost and who is responsible for the loss not another second. We lost, no excuses...no asteriks by the Loss...period.
That being said, I thought it would be a nice change to take a look at some of the 2008 mock drafts, especially with our two #1 picks.
This mock has us taking DeSean Jackson/WR Cal. and Felix Jones/RB Arkansas
Thoughts on the 'mock" draft gentlemen?
1. Miami Dolphins - Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
With Bill Parcells coming to the Dolphins as the Executive Vice President of Football Operations, major changes have already begun to take place within the Dolphins organization. You can expect to see massive changes to a roster that has produced just one win in 2007.
The perceived "most valued prospect" at this point, in the opinion of many observers, is Arkansas RB Darren McFadden. And while he might be tempting, injured RB Ronnie Brown (torn ACL) has two years remaining on his contract after this season, and the Dolphins just have too many needs to use their top pick on a running back for a split-time situation, barring a major setback in Brown's recovery process. It would be very surprising to see Parcells take McFadden here.
From a need standpoint, Glenn Dorsey would fill a huge hole at defensive tackle on a team that had a horrible time stopping the run in 2007. They gave up an NFL-worst 153.5 rushing yards per game, and that includes the quagmire game in Pittsburgh where the Steelers only managed 84 yards on the ground playing in a virtual swamp.
Dorsey, who won the 2007 Bronko Nagurski Trophy (beating out last year's winner, Ohio State LB James Laurinaitis) along with many other awards, is a phenomenal talent. Dorsey would be able to start immediately and have an instant impact in the middle. He is an elite player who has suffered through back and knee injuries and had the guts to remain on the field for LSU down the stretch.
2. St. Louis Rams - Jake Long, OT, Michigan
The Rams had an overwhelming number of injuries in 2007, but the most difficult of those to overcome was the opening day injury to left OT Orlando Pace. Not only was in the second time in as many years that the Rams lost Pace for the season with a triceps injury, it threw the team's capable offense into chaos.
Long is the best offensive tackle prospect in the draft. He opened holes all year for Mike Hart (and his backups), and he should allow the Rams to go into 2008 with some much-needed depth at the offensive line, if not the opportunity for both Pace and Long to play (with Long moving into Pace's spot whenever Pace finally hangs it up.)
The Rams used a first-round pick on Florida State OT Alex Barron in 2005, with the thought that he'd eventually replace Pace, but Barron has struggled through his three years with the Rams. And without blocking, the Rams offense simply can't execute properly.
3. Oakland Raiders - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas °
Note: as per the NFL, the Raiders will end up with either the #3 or #4 overall pick in the draft.
McFadden is a rare talent who has incredible potential as a pro. The Raiders ended up with a 1,000 yard runner in Justin Fargas (4.5 yards per carry) in 2007, but the addition of McFadden would be a huge upgrade for the Oakland offense. He could easily be a day one starter; he does all of the little things right, he blocks hard, he doesn't take plays off, and he has an explosiveness that the Raiders haven't seen since Bo Jackson.
4. Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Note: Atlanta could pick as high as #3 or as low as #5.
There are strong indications from Atlanta that the Falcons will take a QB in the first round (or perhaps second) and then have him sit for a year and prep for 2009. That's not the most exciting prospect for Falcons season ticket holders, but what make them happy is the Falcons having the chance to take their pick of the QB class.
Forget Bobby Petrino; if the Falcons brass likes Brian Brohm the best out of the bunch, I think he'll be the man taken here. It's hard to say for sure, since the team has neither a GM nor a coach at this point. But Ryan has the inside edge right now in the opinion of most scouts as an overall prospect, though it will ultimately come down to who the Falcons believe is the best player to lead them long-term.
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State °
Note: the Chiefs will pick at either #4 or #5.
The Chiefs have a major need on the offensive line, to the point where stretching to take Clady in this spot may end up happening. Because the Chiefs are in the top five, breaking the invisible wall between "Top 5" and "The Rest" and trading down is not going to be a viable option.
Kansas City had almost no luck running the ball in 2007. Their 78.0 yards per game rushing average was dead last in the NFL. Larry Johnson's problems (holdout, injury) didn't help things, nor did Priest Holmes suffering a career-ending injury after the team traded Michael Bennett, but the lack of a top level offensive tackle has played a large part in the team's rushing difficulties.
There is a chance that Kansas City might go quarterback at this position, particularly if they end up drafting in front of Atlanta and have a shot at Matt Ryan, but with the pressure on the current administration in Kansas City to win now, taking a QB here as a developmental player doesn't make a great deal of sense to me.
DE Jared Allen is an impending unrestricted free agent, and it's all but certain that the Chiefs will use the franchise tag on him.
6. New York Jets - Chris Long, DE, Virginia
If the Jets really end up with Long at this spot, they should be overjoyed. Long is a near ideal fit for Eric Mangini's 3-4 system. A skilled defender who has faced double-teams all year, Long plays hard on every down, and he lead Virginia to a much better record than they otherwise would have had.
Against Virginia Tech in the regular season finale, Long beat a double-team and only missed out on a sack by being tackled. No flag was thrown, but that's the kind of chaos he can bring to the table.
7. New England Patriots (from 49ers) - James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State *
Laurinaitis is OUT of the 2008 NFL Draft, as he will be returning to Ohio State for his senior season. Would Dan Connor go in this spot instead? Will the Pats be even more likely to trade down? These are all issues that will be addressed on here very soon.
8. Baltimore Ravens - Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
The Ravens only have one major free-agent-to-be, DE/OLB Terrell Suggs. And, with the Ravens having so much difficulty performing on offense, a new coach coming in to replace Brian Billick, and Steve McNair turning 35 next month, a quarterback like Brohm would be a great addition to the team.
Why Brohm over Woodson? It's a close call, but Woodson has slipped recently due to concerns about his release time. Some have suggested that Brohm will need less prep time to become a starter, which is not an unreasonable belief given that Brohm could have been a first rounder had he come out last year.
An "X Factor" is the presence of Troy Smith on the roster, and how the team evaluates his development will also play a role in what they do in this spot. But with the chance to get Woodson and/or Brohm here, I strongly suspect the Ravens will jump at the opportunity to go QB in this spot.
9. Cincinnati Bengals - Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
The Bengals had a disaster of a 2007 season, and their problems were directly connected with the team's inability to stop the run. They improved later in the year in that respect, but a blue chip defensive tackle would be an ideal addition for Cincy. This may be Marvin Lewis' last shot with the Bengals, and I look for him to lobby for a player like Ellis who can make a impact out of the box.
Glenn Dorsey would be an ideal pick, but with him off the board, Ellis is the next best option. Ellis is strong (with a reported bench press max of 510 pounds), and while at 6'1" he's shorter than normal for the position, he would immediately improve Cincy's run defense.
10. New Orleans Saints - Mike Jenkins, CB, USF
One of the worst deals of the past off-season was New Orleans signing 5'8" CB Jason David, a restricted free agent from the Colts, to a 4-year/$15.8 million dollar deal. The guy played in the Tampa Two in Indy, but that didn't stop the Saints from forking over big cash in a deal that they figured, rightfully so, that the Colts wouldn't match. Often times, players from Super Bowl champions get big paydays elsewhere, but when they are put into a system that doesn't suit them well, it can be problematic.
The result in the David deal for the Saints is that New Orleans was 30th against the pass in 2007. David often looked terrible in man coverage, almost to an embarrassing level. It was been bad enough to make many Saints fans forget about Fred Thomas getting burned bad in 2006. To point, David has missed three full games in 2007: all Saints wins.
Mike Jenkins is a 6'0" 200 pound CB with sub 4.5 speed. He isn't a big interception guy, but he is great at breaking up passes and possesses outstanding closing speed, which is just what the doctor ordered for New Orleans.
11. Buffalo Bills - Dan Connor, LB, Penn State
It's really remarkable that the Bills won as many games as they did in 2007 when you consider that they were 29th against the pass and 25th against the rush. They were decemated by free agent departures last off-season, from CB Nate Clements to LBs London Fletcher and Takeo Spikes. The guys filling those spots have played hard, but clearly a talent infusion is needed.
A versatile talent like Connor would be an interesting choice for Buffalo. It would reunite him with Penn State LB teammate Paul Posluzsny and add him to a unit lead by breakout OLB talent Angelo Crowell.
12. Denver Broncos - Kenny Phillips, FS, Miami °
In a draft that is light at the safety position, Phillips stands out as the lone top-tier safety prospect, free or strong. The Broncos have needs at defensive tackle, but the chance to snag Phillips may be the best option for the Broncos in this spot.
While John Lynch has played very well for Denver since leaving Tampa Bay, the reality is that he'll turn 37 in September, and the time has come to bring a new, top-level safety to Denver.
13. Carolina Panthers - Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State °
Mike Rucker will turn 33 in February, and he is eligible for unrestricted free agency. And while Carolina's offense, particularly its passing game, has been in shambles this year, the chance to add a talented defensive lineman like Gholston would be most helpful for the Panthers. The evlauation of Jake Delhomme relative to his long-term prognosis with the team could impact what Carolina does here.
14. Chicago Bears - Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky
The Bears suffered an inordinate amount of injuries in 2007, but there were some serious issues at the quarterback position that trumped the injury problems that plagued the team.
Rex Grossman is going to be an unrestricted free agent, and he'll almost for sure be playing elsewhere in 2008. Kyle Orton and Brian Griese have not shown "long term QB" potential, and clearly the team needs to do something to improve its QB situation.
One note of caution for Woodson fans: if he falls past Chicago at #14, he could free fall, possibly to Tampa Bay at #20, or even further. While I am sold on him, there are some questioning his release time, and that seems to have separated him from Ryan at #1 and Brohm at #2 in the QB slotting battle, at least for now.
15. Detroit Lions - Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona
The Lions traded away CB Dre Bly this past off-season and lack a big-time playmaker at that spot. In 2007, the Lions were #31 against the pass. And, short of breaking the bank to land Patriots CB Asante Samuel (who is in line for a mega payday this upcoming off-season), the Lions will have to look to the draft to get a high-end corner talent.
Cason has been a steady performer at Arizona. Had he come out early, he might have been a first-rounder in last year's draft. As it turned out, his stock fell during the off-season and early in the year, but that was in part because at times opponents were literally doing everything they could to not pass the ball in his direction. Cason would be a good fit for the Lions, with experience, confidence, and the ability to perform well for a long period of time.
16. Arizona Cardinals - Keith Rivers, LB, USC
Rivers is a 6'3" 245 pound tackling machine who runs a sub-4.6 40, which could make him very valuable in stopping the run. Arizona OLBs Karlos Dansby and Calvin Pace are both facing impending free agency, and both made less than $1,000,000 each in 2007 on the final year of their respective contracts. It will be tough for the Cards to keep them both, especially with an opportunity to land a high-end LB in this spot perhaps being too tempting to pass up.
17. Minnesota Vikings - Quentin Groves, DE/OLB, Auburn
My strong suspicion is that the Vikings will make a move this off-season to acquire either Eagles QB Donovan McNabb or Browns QB Derek Anderson. Such a move would likely require them to trade this pick as part of the deal (or give it up in compensation as part of signing Anderson as a restricted free agent), but in the event that the Vikings keep the pick, Groves would be a great steal for the team. He is a skilled playmaker from the OLB spot, though he lost some of the spotlight with an injury (three dislocated toes) in the Florida game.
I saw Groves play in person, and he jumps out as someone special when you see him performing live. I personally consider him to be a legit Top 5 or Top 10 prospect, but he will likely fall to this level, if not lower, due to circumstances beyond his control. He is a value pick waiting to happen.
var tcdacmd="dt;sa=a;sz=3;ad";
18. Houston Texans - Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon °
Stewart had a statement game against USF in El Paso, breaking the Sun Bowl record with 253 yards rushing and two TDs.
How impressive was that? It may vault Stewart into the #2 RB prospect spot below Darren McFadden, though in a draft that is loaded at RB, things could get murky in that "RBs after McFadden" category.
The Texans haven't had a strong option at running back since the 2005 injury, and subsequent retirement, of Domanick Davis (a.k.a. Domanick Williams). Ahman Green has proven to be yet another example of the low-end payoff of bringing in a 30-year-old running back to carry the load, and with the RB talent that should be present in this draft, there should be many players from which to choose for the Texans.
19. Philadelphia Eagles - Calais Campbell, DE, Miami °
In my estimation there are no glaring needs for the Eagles on offense (though some disagree), and traditionally Philly goes toward the line (both offensive and defensive) in the first round of the draft. Campbell is a huge human being, and he is quick and skilled at sacking the quarterback.
With Campbell and Trent Cole on the ends, the Eagles could have a very strong pass rush, the type of pressure that they had hoped they'd get out of Javon Kearse, who is likely going to be cut this upcoming off-season.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
Balmer is a shooting star, making a late run up draft boards thanks to an outstanding season. The Bucs have needed to land another defensive tackle ever since trading away Anthony McFarland to Indianapolis last year; the last time the Bucs used a first round pick on a DT (or even a pick in the first *four* rounds at DT) was on McFarland in 1999.
21. Washington Commanders - Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida °
While Andre Carter is having a great year at defensive end for the Commanders, adding a young player on the other side to bring the heat would make Washington that much more volatile.
Harvey became the focal point for opposing offenses in 2007 after losing many of his outstanding defensive line teammates from the 2006 BCS Title team to the NFL (and his three sack performance against Ohio State to end last season), yet he still managed to lead the Gators in sacks this year.
22. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland) - DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal *
DeSean Jackson is the X-Factor of this draft; trying to predict where he will go is a challenging thing. He may not end up coming out this year. Jackson had a great performance (after sitting out for the first quarter due to a rule violation) in Cal's comeback win over Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl, which should boost his stock.
At 6'0" 180, he has decent height, but not the bulk that some other receivers in the draft bring to the table. What sets Jackson apart is his blazing speed. If he can really run a 4.35ish 40 at the combine, he could end up similar to Ted Ginn, Jr. last year as a surprise top ten pick. If Jerry Jones is looking for a kick return boost, he'd sure land that in Jackson.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers - Sam Baker, OT, USC
Baker is a versatile talent who could fill a number of offensive line spots. This would work out well for the Steelers, who are likely going to lose OT Max Starks and OG Alan Faneca to unrestricted free agency. While Starks lost his starting job to Willie Colon, depth on the offensive line is very important, and even a worst-case might be Baker lining up at offensive guard for the Steelers in 2008.
24. Tennessee Titans - Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
The Titans desperately need to bring in a top flight wide receiver for Vince Young. While Justin Gage and Roydell Williams have shown improvement in recent weeks, Young deserves to have a top-flight prospect at wideout. Sweed and Young played together when the University of Texas won the BCS Title in the 2005 season, and them reuniting would be quite intriguing.
Following the Titans' exit from the playoffs, Jeff Fisher promised (according to The Tennessean in Nashville) that he would make sure that the Titans offense would be improved for 2008. Actual quote: "It is a matter of everybody currently on the roster improving. And it is a matter of hoping to possibly obtain those types of players that can score touchdowns and continuing to work on it." To me, that's code for: Vince Young needs better receivers.
I'm convinced that the Titans will do whatever they have to do to keep Albert Haynesworth after seeing the defense play at a much lower level without him, particularly against the run. The negotiation may get dirty with the franchise tag involved, but there's no way that Tennessee will let Haynesworth go.
25. Seattle Seahawks - Early Doucet, WR, LSU
Bobby Engram turns 35 in January, and D.J. Hackett is an unrestricted free agent after the season. There are other possible spots for the Seahawks to consider, but a skilled receiver like Doucet would be a solid selection at this spot. While injuries prevented him from shining as he would have otherwise done this year, Doucet is a clutch receiver with sure hands who may end up needing to play sooner as opposed to later for the Seahawks.
26. New York Giants - Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas °
Talib tore things up in the Orange Bowl; I'll have much more on this in the next mock draft update. He already had the size and speed -- now he has some hype to propel him into the draft process, should he choose to enter.
While the Giants had success in general against the pass this year, a great deal of credit for that belongs to the pass rush of the front four of the defense. That's not to discredit the work of the secondary, but adding a dynamic, tall (6'2"), and speedy playmaker in the form of Talib would make the Giants secondary even more menacing.
27. Jacksonville Jaguars - Reggie Smith, CB, Oklahoma *
The Jags made improvements late in the year against the pass, but they could still use help in the secondary. If the Jaguars want to get over the hump and make it past the Colts in the AFC South, adding another young, talented player to the secondary could be a wise move.
Smith has an injury that kept him out of the Fiesta Bowl, and it will be interesting to see if that late-season injury impacts Smith's decision to test the waters of the NFL Draft -- the Tuesday deadline is creeping close. When healthy, Smith is a talented cover man, but if he feels that he won't be able to work out at top form, it's entirely possible that he'd return to OU. If that happens, the value of CBs in this draft (and on the free agent market) will go up yet again; the decision by Malcolm Jenkins to return to Ohio State hurt the 2008 NFL Draft corner depth considerably.
28. San Diego Chargers - Ali Highsmith, OLB, LSU
This is an interesting spot for the Chargers, as they need to gain maximum value from this pick since they have traded away (or sacrificed via the 2007 Supplemental Draft) their picks in rounds two, three, and four. San Diego trading down wouldn't surprise me at all, but with need at LB, Highsmith may be too tempting to pass up if the Chargers keep the pick. With the various stances and personnel changes that the Chargers like to use, Highsmith would be a most welcome addition, as he is great at sniffing out the run and also excellent at bringing the heat on the blitz.
29. Dallas Cowboys - Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas °
Jones has been overlooked by many due to the presence of Darren McFadden, but should Bobby Petrino be unable to talk him into staying for his senior year, he could end up being a first round pick. He would be a particularly nice fit for the Cowboys, who are likely going to lose Julius Jones to free agency but have Marion Barber, III under contract.
While Barber is a bruiser, Jones would be a great contrast, given that he's 6'0", 200 pounds and runs a sub-4.4 40. Felix Jones has feature back ability, and he would be a great pickup by the Cowboys.
While the Cowboys may also look to add depth in the secondary and should have their choice from a number of good RBs in rounds two and three, a talent like Jones (or Rashard Mendenhall) at this spot in the draft may be too much to pass up.
30. San Francisco 49ers (from Indianapolis) - Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma °
The 49ers have been in a free-fall, in no small part because of the team's inability to throw the ball -- they were dead last in passing yards per game in 2007. The receiving corps is a mess, and with Mike Martz coming on board as the new offensive coordinator, it seems quite likely that the 49ers will use their first round pick on a receiver.
There should be a number of quality WR options for the 49ers here. But Kelly, at 6'4", has the height to allow himself to gain separation from corners. And while it's true that the 49ers have a trio of 6'0" or taller receivers (Arnez Battle, Ashley Lelie, and Darrell Jackson) as well as the tall receiving threat of TE Vernon Davis, Kelly has the goods as far as having the ability to get open, something that will be vital for all 49ers receivers in '08.
31. Green Bay Packers - Terrell Thomas, CB, USC
Is Ryan Grant the breakout running back of the future for the Packers, or is he a stop-gap who is benefitting from Brett Favre's presence? Two fumbles in the opening quarter against Seattle looked bad, but then Grant rallied to put a 201 yard rushing day against a very good Seahawks defense. That, coupled with the presence of 2007 second round pick Brandon Jackson on the roster, leads me to believe that Green Bay will look elsewhere in this spot.
DT Corey Williams is slated for unrestricted free agency, though Green Bay planned ahead on that by drafting Justin Harrell in the first round of the 2007 Draft. If Williams leaves, I'd think that Green Bay would look for depth in the draft at DT, but not until later on in the process.
While the Green Bay secondary is playing great, the reality is that age is creeping up on both Al Harris and Charles Woodson. A player like Thomas, who has battled with injury but who has huge long-term potential as a great player in the NFL, might be the perfect fit for the Packers. Trading down from here may receive strong consideration as well, particularly if a 2009 first round pick can be acquired in the process. 32. New England Patriots - FORFEITED
As punishment for the "Spygate" scandal, the Patriots have been forced to forfeit their 2008 first round pick.
That being said, I thought it would be a nice change to take a look at some of the 2008 mock drafts, especially with our two #1 picks.
This mock has us taking DeSean Jackson/WR Cal. and Felix Jones/RB Arkansas
Thoughts on the 'mock" draft gentlemen?
1. Miami Dolphins - Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
With Bill Parcells coming to the Dolphins as the Executive Vice President of Football Operations, major changes have already begun to take place within the Dolphins organization. You can expect to see massive changes to a roster that has produced just one win in 2007.
The perceived "most valued prospect" at this point, in the opinion of many observers, is Arkansas RB Darren McFadden. And while he might be tempting, injured RB Ronnie Brown (torn ACL) has two years remaining on his contract after this season, and the Dolphins just have too many needs to use their top pick on a running back for a split-time situation, barring a major setback in Brown's recovery process. It would be very surprising to see Parcells take McFadden here.
From a need standpoint, Glenn Dorsey would fill a huge hole at defensive tackle on a team that had a horrible time stopping the run in 2007. They gave up an NFL-worst 153.5 rushing yards per game, and that includes the quagmire game in Pittsburgh where the Steelers only managed 84 yards on the ground playing in a virtual swamp.
Dorsey, who won the 2007 Bronko Nagurski Trophy (beating out last year's winner, Ohio State LB James Laurinaitis) along with many other awards, is a phenomenal talent. Dorsey would be able to start immediately and have an instant impact in the middle. He is an elite player who has suffered through back and knee injuries and had the guts to remain on the field for LSU down the stretch.
2. St. Louis Rams - Jake Long, OT, Michigan
The Rams had an overwhelming number of injuries in 2007, but the most difficult of those to overcome was the opening day injury to left OT Orlando Pace. Not only was in the second time in as many years that the Rams lost Pace for the season with a triceps injury, it threw the team's capable offense into chaos.
Long is the best offensive tackle prospect in the draft. He opened holes all year for Mike Hart (and his backups), and he should allow the Rams to go into 2008 with some much-needed depth at the offensive line, if not the opportunity for both Pace and Long to play (with Long moving into Pace's spot whenever Pace finally hangs it up.)
The Rams used a first-round pick on Florida State OT Alex Barron in 2005, with the thought that he'd eventually replace Pace, but Barron has struggled through his three years with the Rams. And without blocking, the Rams offense simply can't execute properly.
3. Oakland Raiders - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas °
Note: as per the NFL, the Raiders will end up with either the #3 or #4 overall pick in the draft.
McFadden is a rare talent who has incredible potential as a pro. The Raiders ended up with a 1,000 yard runner in Justin Fargas (4.5 yards per carry) in 2007, but the addition of McFadden would be a huge upgrade for the Oakland offense. He could easily be a day one starter; he does all of the little things right, he blocks hard, he doesn't take plays off, and he has an explosiveness that the Raiders haven't seen since Bo Jackson.
4. Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Note: Atlanta could pick as high as #3 or as low as #5.
There are strong indications from Atlanta that the Falcons will take a QB in the first round (or perhaps second) and then have him sit for a year and prep for 2009. That's not the most exciting prospect for Falcons season ticket holders, but what make them happy is the Falcons having the chance to take their pick of the QB class.
Forget Bobby Petrino; if the Falcons brass likes Brian Brohm the best out of the bunch, I think he'll be the man taken here. It's hard to say for sure, since the team has neither a GM nor a coach at this point. But Ryan has the inside edge right now in the opinion of most scouts as an overall prospect, though it will ultimately come down to who the Falcons believe is the best player to lead them long-term.
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State °
Note: the Chiefs will pick at either #4 or #5.
The Chiefs have a major need on the offensive line, to the point where stretching to take Clady in this spot may end up happening. Because the Chiefs are in the top five, breaking the invisible wall between "Top 5" and "The Rest" and trading down is not going to be a viable option.
Kansas City had almost no luck running the ball in 2007. Their 78.0 yards per game rushing average was dead last in the NFL. Larry Johnson's problems (holdout, injury) didn't help things, nor did Priest Holmes suffering a career-ending injury after the team traded Michael Bennett, but the lack of a top level offensive tackle has played a large part in the team's rushing difficulties.
There is a chance that Kansas City might go quarterback at this position, particularly if they end up drafting in front of Atlanta and have a shot at Matt Ryan, but with the pressure on the current administration in Kansas City to win now, taking a QB here as a developmental player doesn't make a great deal of sense to me.
DE Jared Allen is an impending unrestricted free agent, and it's all but certain that the Chiefs will use the franchise tag on him.
6. New York Jets - Chris Long, DE, Virginia
If the Jets really end up with Long at this spot, they should be overjoyed. Long is a near ideal fit for Eric Mangini's 3-4 system. A skilled defender who has faced double-teams all year, Long plays hard on every down, and he lead Virginia to a much better record than they otherwise would have had.
Against Virginia Tech in the regular season finale, Long beat a double-team and only missed out on a sack by being tackled. No flag was thrown, but that's the kind of chaos he can bring to the table.
7. New England Patriots (from 49ers) - James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State *
Laurinaitis is OUT of the 2008 NFL Draft, as he will be returning to Ohio State for his senior season. Would Dan Connor go in this spot instead? Will the Pats be even more likely to trade down? These are all issues that will be addressed on here very soon.
8. Baltimore Ravens - Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
The Ravens only have one major free-agent-to-be, DE/OLB Terrell Suggs. And, with the Ravens having so much difficulty performing on offense, a new coach coming in to replace Brian Billick, and Steve McNair turning 35 next month, a quarterback like Brohm would be a great addition to the team.
Why Brohm over Woodson? It's a close call, but Woodson has slipped recently due to concerns about his release time. Some have suggested that Brohm will need less prep time to become a starter, which is not an unreasonable belief given that Brohm could have been a first rounder had he come out last year.
An "X Factor" is the presence of Troy Smith on the roster, and how the team evaluates his development will also play a role in what they do in this spot. But with the chance to get Woodson and/or Brohm here, I strongly suspect the Ravens will jump at the opportunity to go QB in this spot.
9. Cincinnati Bengals - Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
The Bengals had a disaster of a 2007 season, and their problems were directly connected with the team's inability to stop the run. They improved later in the year in that respect, but a blue chip defensive tackle would be an ideal addition for Cincy. This may be Marvin Lewis' last shot with the Bengals, and I look for him to lobby for a player like Ellis who can make a impact out of the box.
Glenn Dorsey would be an ideal pick, but with him off the board, Ellis is the next best option. Ellis is strong (with a reported bench press max of 510 pounds), and while at 6'1" he's shorter than normal for the position, he would immediately improve Cincy's run defense.
10. New Orleans Saints - Mike Jenkins, CB, USF
One of the worst deals of the past off-season was New Orleans signing 5'8" CB Jason David, a restricted free agent from the Colts, to a 4-year/$15.8 million dollar deal. The guy played in the Tampa Two in Indy, but that didn't stop the Saints from forking over big cash in a deal that they figured, rightfully so, that the Colts wouldn't match. Often times, players from Super Bowl champions get big paydays elsewhere, but when they are put into a system that doesn't suit them well, it can be problematic.
The result in the David deal for the Saints is that New Orleans was 30th against the pass in 2007. David often looked terrible in man coverage, almost to an embarrassing level. It was been bad enough to make many Saints fans forget about Fred Thomas getting burned bad in 2006. To point, David has missed three full games in 2007: all Saints wins.
Mike Jenkins is a 6'0" 200 pound CB with sub 4.5 speed. He isn't a big interception guy, but he is great at breaking up passes and possesses outstanding closing speed, which is just what the doctor ordered for New Orleans.
11. Buffalo Bills - Dan Connor, LB, Penn State
It's really remarkable that the Bills won as many games as they did in 2007 when you consider that they were 29th against the pass and 25th against the rush. They were decemated by free agent departures last off-season, from CB Nate Clements to LBs London Fletcher and Takeo Spikes. The guys filling those spots have played hard, but clearly a talent infusion is needed.
A versatile talent like Connor would be an interesting choice for Buffalo. It would reunite him with Penn State LB teammate Paul Posluzsny and add him to a unit lead by breakout OLB talent Angelo Crowell.
12. Denver Broncos - Kenny Phillips, FS, Miami °
In a draft that is light at the safety position, Phillips stands out as the lone top-tier safety prospect, free or strong. The Broncos have needs at defensive tackle, but the chance to snag Phillips may be the best option for the Broncos in this spot.
While John Lynch has played very well for Denver since leaving Tampa Bay, the reality is that he'll turn 37 in September, and the time has come to bring a new, top-level safety to Denver.
13. Carolina Panthers - Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State °
Mike Rucker will turn 33 in February, and he is eligible for unrestricted free agency. And while Carolina's offense, particularly its passing game, has been in shambles this year, the chance to add a talented defensive lineman like Gholston would be most helpful for the Panthers. The evlauation of Jake Delhomme relative to his long-term prognosis with the team could impact what Carolina does here.
14. Chicago Bears - Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky
The Bears suffered an inordinate amount of injuries in 2007, but there were some serious issues at the quarterback position that trumped the injury problems that plagued the team.
Rex Grossman is going to be an unrestricted free agent, and he'll almost for sure be playing elsewhere in 2008. Kyle Orton and Brian Griese have not shown "long term QB" potential, and clearly the team needs to do something to improve its QB situation.
One note of caution for Woodson fans: if he falls past Chicago at #14, he could free fall, possibly to Tampa Bay at #20, or even further. While I am sold on him, there are some questioning his release time, and that seems to have separated him from Ryan at #1 and Brohm at #2 in the QB slotting battle, at least for now.
15. Detroit Lions - Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona
The Lions traded away CB Dre Bly this past off-season and lack a big-time playmaker at that spot. In 2007, the Lions were #31 against the pass. And, short of breaking the bank to land Patriots CB Asante Samuel (who is in line for a mega payday this upcoming off-season), the Lions will have to look to the draft to get a high-end corner talent.
Cason has been a steady performer at Arizona. Had he come out early, he might have been a first-rounder in last year's draft. As it turned out, his stock fell during the off-season and early in the year, but that was in part because at times opponents were literally doing everything they could to not pass the ball in his direction. Cason would be a good fit for the Lions, with experience, confidence, and the ability to perform well for a long period of time.
16. Arizona Cardinals - Keith Rivers, LB, USC
Rivers is a 6'3" 245 pound tackling machine who runs a sub-4.6 40, which could make him very valuable in stopping the run. Arizona OLBs Karlos Dansby and Calvin Pace are both facing impending free agency, and both made less than $1,000,000 each in 2007 on the final year of their respective contracts. It will be tough for the Cards to keep them both, especially with an opportunity to land a high-end LB in this spot perhaps being too tempting to pass up.
17. Minnesota Vikings - Quentin Groves, DE/OLB, Auburn
My strong suspicion is that the Vikings will make a move this off-season to acquire either Eagles QB Donovan McNabb or Browns QB Derek Anderson. Such a move would likely require them to trade this pick as part of the deal (or give it up in compensation as part of signing Anderson as a restricted free agent), but in the event that the Vikings keep the pick, Groves would be a great steal for the team. He is a skilled playmaker from the OLB spot, though he lost some of the spotlight with an injury (three dislocated toes) in the Florida game.
I saw Groves play in person, and he jumps out as someone special when you see him performing live. I personally consider him to be a legit Top 5 or Top 10 prospect, but he will likely fall to this level, if not lower, due to circumstances beyond his control. He is a value pick waiting to happen.
var tcdacmd="dt;sa=a;sz=3;ad";
18. Houston Texans - Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon °
Stewart had a statement game against USF in El Paso, breaking the Sun Bowl record with 253 yards rushing and two TDs.
How impressive was that? It may vault Stewart into the #2 RB prospect spot below Darren McFadden, though in a draft that is loaded at RB, things could get murky in that "RBs after McFadden" category.
The Texans haven't had a strong option at running back since the 2005 injury, and subsequent retirement, of Domanick Davis (a.k.a. Domanick Williams). Ahman Green has proven to be yet another example of the low-end payoff of bringing in a 30-year-old running back to carry the load, and with the RB talent that should be present in this draft, there should be many players from which to choose for the Texans.
19. Philadelphia Eagles - Calais Campbell, DE, Miami °
In my estimation there are no glaring needs for the Eagles on offense (though some disagree), and traditionally Philly goes toward the line (both offensive and defensive) in the first round of the draft. Campbell is a huge human being, and he is quick and skilled at sacking the quarterback.
With Campbell and Trent Cole on the ends, the Eagles could have a very strong pass rush, the type of pressure that they had hoped they'd get out of Javon Kearse, who is likely going to be cut this upcoming off-season.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
Balmer is a shooting star, making a late run up draft boards thanks to an outstanding season. The Bucs have needed to land another defensive tackle ever since trading away Anthony McFarland to Indianapolis last year; the last time the Bucs used a first round pick on a DT (or even a pick in the first *four* rounds at DT) was on McFarland in 1999.
21. Washington Commanders - Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida °
While Andre Carter is having a great year at defensive end for the Commanders, adding a young player on the other side to bring the heat would make Washington that much more volatile.
Harvey became the focal point for opposing offenses in 2007 after losing many of his outstanding defensive line teammates from the 2006 BCS Title team to the NFL (and his three sack performance against Ohio State to end last season), yet he still managed to lead the Gators in sacks this year.
22. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland) - DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal *
DeSean Jackson is the X-Factor of this draft; trying to predict where he will go is a challenging thing. He may not end up coming out this year. Jackson had a great performance (after sitting out for the first quarter due to a rule violation) in Cal's comeback win over Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl, which should boost his stock.
At 6'0" 180, he has decent height, but not the bulk that some other receivers in the draft bring to the table. What sets Jackson apart is his blazing speed. If he can really run a 4.35ish 40 at the combine, he could end up similar to Ted Ginn, Jr. last year as a surprise top ten pick. If Jerry Jones is looking for a kick return boost, he'd sure land that in Jackson.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers - Sam Baker, OT, USC
Baker is a versatile talent who could fill a number of offensive line spots. This would work out well for the Steelers, who are likely going to lose OT Max Starks and OG Alan Faneca to unrestricted free agency. While Starks lost his starting job to Willie Colon, depth on the offensive line is very important, and even a worst-case might be Baker lining up at offensive guard for the Steelers in 2008.
24. Tennessee Titans - Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
The Titans desperately need to bring in a top flight wide receiver for Vince Young. While Justin Gage and Roydell Williams have shown improvement in recent weeks, Young deserves to have a top-flight prospect at wideout. Sweed and Young played together when the University of Texas won the BCS Title in the 2005 season, and them reuniting would be quite intriguing.
Following the Titans' exit from the playoffs, Jeff Fisher promised (according to The Tennessean in Nashville) that he would make sure that the Titans offense would be improved for 2008. Actual quote: "It is a matter of everybody currently on the roster improving. And it is a matter of hoping to possibly obtain those types of players that can score touchdowns and continuing to work on it." To me, that's code for: Vince Young needs better receivers.
I'm convinced that the Titans will do whatever they have to do to keep Albert Haynesworth after seeing the defense play at a much lower level without him, particularly against the run. The negotiation may get dirty with the franchise tag involved, but there's no way that Tennessee will let Haynesworth go.
25. Seattle Seahawks - Early Doucet, WR, LSU
Bobby Engram turns 35 in January, and D.J. Hackett is an unrestricted free agent after the season. There are other possible spots for the Seahawks to consider, but a skilled receiver like Doucet would be a solid selection at this spot. While injuries prevented him from shining as he would have otherwise done this year, Doucet is a clutch receiver with sure hands who may end up needing to play sooner as opposed to later for the Seahawks.
26. New York Giants - Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas °
Talib tore things up in the Orange Bowl; I'll have much more on this in the next mock draft update. He already had the size and speed -- now he has some hype to propel him into the draft process, should he choose to enter.
While the Giants had success in general against the pass this year, a great deal of credit for that belongs to the pass rush of the front four of the defense. That's not to discredit the work of the secondary, but adding a dynamic, tall (6'2"), and speedy playmaker in the form of Talib would make the Giants secondary even more menacing.
27. Jacksonville Jaguars - Reggie Smith, CB, Oklahoma *
The Jags made improvements late in the year against the pass, but they could still use help in the secondary. If the Jaguars want to get over the hump and make it past the Colts in the AFC South, adding another young, talented player to the secondary could be a wise move.
Smith has an injury that kept him out of the Fiesta Bowl, and it will be interesting to see if that late-season injury impacts Smith's decision to test the waters of the NFL Draft -- the Tuesday deadline is creeping close. When healthy, Smith is a talented cover man, but if he feels that he won't be able to work out at top form, it's entirely possible that he'd return to OU. If that happens, the value of CBs in this draft (and on the free agent market) will go up yet again; the decision by Malcolm Jenkins to return to Ohio State hurt the 2008 NFL Draft corner depth considerably.
28. San Diego Chargers - Ali Highsmith, OLB, LSU
This is an interesting spot for the Chargers, as they need to gain maximum value from this pick since they have traded away (or sacrificed via the 2007 Supplemental Draft) their picks in rounds two, three, and four. San Diego trading down wouldn't surprise me at all, but with need at LB, Highsmith may be too tempting to pass up if the Chargers keep the pick. With the various stances and personnel changes that the Chargers like to use, Highsmith would be a most welcome addition, as he is great at sniffing out the run and also excellent at bringing the heat on the blitz.
29. Dallas Cowboys - Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas °
Jones has been overlooked by many due to the presence of Darren McFadden, but should Bobby Petrino be unable to talk him into staying for his senior year, he could end up being a first round pick. He would be a particularly nice fit for the Cowboys, who are likely going to lose Julius Jones to free agency but have Marion Barber, III under contract.
While Barber is a bruiser, Jones would be a great contrast, given that he's 6'0", 200 pounds and runs a sub-4.4 40. Felix Jones has feature back ability, and he would be a great pickup by the Cowboys.
While the Cowboys may also look to add depth in the secondary and should have their choice from a number of good RBs in rounds two and three, a talent like Jones (or Rashard Mendenhall) at this spot in the draft may be too much to pass up.
30. San Francisco 49ers (from Indianapolis) - Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma °
The 49ers have been in a free-fall, in no small part because of the team's inability to throw the ball -- they were dead last in passing yards per game in 2007. The receiving corps is a mess, and with Mike Martz coming on board as the new offensive coordinator, it seems quite likely that the 49ers will use their first round pick on a receiver.
There should be a number of quality WR options for the 49ers here. But Kelly, at 6'4", has the height to allow himself to gain separation from corners. And while it's true that the 49ers have a trio of 6'0" or taller receivers (Arnez Battle, Ashley Lelie, and Darrell Jackson) as well as the tall receiving threat of TE Vernon Davis, Kelly has the goods as far as having the ability to get open, something that will be vital for all 49ers receivers in '08.
31. Green Bay Packers - Terrell Thomas, CB, USC
Is Ryan Grant the breakout running back of the future for the Packers, or is he a stop-gap who is benefitting from Brett Favre's presence? Two fumbles in the opening quarter against Seattle looked bad, but then Grant rallied to put a 201 yard rushing day against a very good Seahawks defense. That, coupled with the presence of 2007 second round pick Brandon Jackson on the roster, leads me to believe that Green Bay will look elsewhere in this spot.
DT Corey Williams is slated for unrestricted free agency, though Green Bay planned ahead on that by drafting Justin Harrell in the first round of the 2007 Draft. If Williams leaves, I'd think that Green Bay would look for depth in the draft at DT, but not until later on in the process.
While the Green Bay secondary is playing great, the reality is that age is creeping up on both Al Harris and Charles Woodson. A player like Thomas, who has battled with injury but who has huge long-term potential as a great player in the NFL, might be the perfect fit for the Packers. Trading down from here may receive strong consideration as well, particularly if a 2009 first round pick can be acquired in the process. 32. New England Patriots - FORFEITED
As punishment for the "Spygate" scandal, the Patriots have been forced to forfeit their 2008 first round pick.