CFZ Keeping the Draft in Perspective

[Bobhaze]

The NFL Draft and Monday mornings have one thing big thing in common: lots of knee-jerk overreactions.

After the Cowboys drafted Mazi Smith with the 26th pick, the overreactions flooded in. The fans who are disappointed or upset are usually focused on their own “pet cat” that was somehow going to be the key to us making a SB run. And their opinions are often over-hyped by sports talking heads or by a fan’s fascination with a player they loved from their favorite college or by college game film showing the player crushing it against inferior college talent that will not transfer to the next level.

For those saying the Mazi Smith pick was a reach should consider:

• Honestly, there are really only about 10-15 players each year that truly have traditional “first round talent”. Although Smith wasn’t in that group, IMO he’s still a good pick for this team’s needs.
• Drafting at 18-32 is basically a high end second round pick most years.
• Conversely, the number of players who are top end 2nd-3rd round talent is much bigger- especially this year.
• How long has this team needed help stopping the run?

Keeping it in perspective- the draft is hugely important to team development. But man the modern NFL draft is one of the most over-hyped events in sports. More than half of the players drafted each year will play in the NFL LESS than 5 years. Finding a 10 year starter in the draft is about 15-17% chance.

So the overreaction to the draft- either saying we “picked wrong” or got it exactly right is really silly. None of us know what these players are until at least 2-3 years. I’m excited about the Mazi Smith pick and interested to see who else we draft the next two days. But whoever it is, it’s waaaaay too early to judge what we’ve acquired.

Keep it all in perspective.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

I don't expect much from picks outside of the top 20ish.

It's to hit and miss.

You're rarely going to get a team changing type of talent that far down in 1st. You're just hoping to hit on someone that could be a starter at 26.

 

[805BoysInBlue]

Dallas fans are the kings and queens of overreacting.

 

[Bobhaze]

Dallas fans are the kings and queens of overreacting.

Most fans are from any fan base.

 

[thunderpimp91]

This is spot on although I would say I think Mazi is about as high floor of a pick as you can get from a talent perspective. I think he has a Vita Vea light type of ceiling, but realistically a 10% chance or so that he hits it. If he doesn't that's still OK though. If all he ever is ends up being a 2 down above average run defender that's still way better than a total flame out. Get two starter level players with one who can reach a pro bowl and you've had a pretty good draft.

I forget the specific number but I saw a stat recently where only about a third of first round draft picks will make a pro bowl in their entire career.

 

[Miller]

Agree! Didn't love the pick but it is growing on me. Honestly most of the mocks had guys I didn't love. I wanted Oline. But overall I'm hoping we do well in the 2nd and 3rd to make this as solid as possible.

 

[Bobhaze]

This is spot on although I would say I think Mazi is about as high floor of a pick as you can get from a talent perspective. I think he has a Vita Vea light type of ceiling, but realistically a 10% chance or so that he hits it. If he doesn't that's still OK though. If all he ever is ends up being a 2 down above average run defender that's still way better than a total flame out. Get two starter level players with one who can reach a pro bowl and you've had a pretty good draft.

I forget the specific number but I saw a stat recently where only about a third of first round draft picks will make a pro bowl in their entire career.

Yeah, only about 12-15 of these first round picks will be starters more than 3-5 years. A few will make 1 or more pro bowls. Maybe 5-7 will play in the league 10 or more years. Maybe 2 will be multi-year All Pros.

 

[Bobhaze]

Agree! Didn't love the pick but it is growing on me. Honestly most of the mocks had guys I didn't love. I wanted Oline. But overall I'm hoping we do well in the 2nd and 3rd to make this as solid as possible.

I’m a big believer that best drafts are not as much about individual talent as much as what they collectively can do for your team’s ability to win playoff games.

In other words- What good is it to get a bunch of guys with great stats but create zero playoff wins?

 

[75boyz]

Well,
I mean it's just another sample of past excuses for failure that has now been addressed.
First they replaced the HC and then the new coach's first DC and then his first OC along with replacing specific offensive positional coaches.
They have replaced the safety position.
They have now replaced the DT position.
They replaced the bell cow RB with possibly more to follow.
They picked up a FA corner and wideout who are both not too old and have not been chronically injured.

For all the staunch pro McCarthy advocates all these excuses have run out.

It will be interesting to see the season unfold once again to see where this year's person or unit scapegoat shifts to.

I know there's still one very important position player common denominator...

No more excuses.
And then CowboysZone freezes over.

LOL

 

[Creeper]

Perspective, not many picks at 26 are lights out. It takes someone great to fall. Looking at all-pro selections over the years, most of them were drafted in the 1st half of the first round. After than the success rate tails off rapidly.

You can only pick who is available. If you don't like Mazi, then name someone who would be a better choice for the Cowboys. Then come back in 2 years and see if you were right. I have no idea if Mazi is the real deal or just another Gallimore, but it has been 32 years since Dallas has taken a DT in the first round, and I do not know how long since they drafted a legitimate NT in the first round, so how refreshing is it to see they finally are trying to address a long term problem.

First year DTs, no matter who they are, usually do not produce much. I know we are going to hear the bust label applied to Mazi, but let's wait until his 3rd year to see what kind of player he is. One thing he brings is strength and that is what they need on the interior DL.

 

[Bobhaze]

Perspective, not many picks at 26 are lights out. It takes someone great to fall. Looking at all-pro selections over the years, most of them were drafted in the 1st half of the first round. After than the success rate tails off rapidly.

You can only pick who is available. If you don't like Mazi, then name someone who would be a better choice for the Cowboys. Then come back in 2 years and see if you were right. I have no idea if Mazi is the real deal or just another Gallimore, but it has been 32 years since Dallas has taken a DT in the first round, and I do not know how long since they drafted a legitimate NT in the first round, so how refreshing is it to see they finally are trying to address a long term problem.

First year DTs, no matter who they are, usually do not produce much. I know we are going to hear the bust label applied to Mazi, but let's wait until his 3rd year to see what kind of player he is. One thing he brings is strength and that is what they need on the interior DL.

Agree. And drafts are like puzzle pieces, not a fantasy football team. Too many fans look at the draft as a collection of individuals and judge the draft by which individuals they consider “beasts” or “studs” we acquired. Instead of looking at what needs we addressed. The Mazi Smith pick is more about addressing a need than whether or not Smith is going to be a stud or not.

 

[blueblood70]

The NFL Draft and Monday mornings have one thing big thing in common: lots of knee-jerk overreactions.

After the Cowboys drafted Mazi Smith with the 26th pick, the overreactions flooded in. The fans who are disappointed or upset are usually focused on their own “pet cat” that was somehow going to be the key to us making a SB run. And their opinions are often over-hyped by sports talking heads or by a fan’s fascination with a player they loved from their favorite college or by college game film showing the player crushing it against inferior college talent that will not transfer to the next level.

For those saying the Mazi Smith pick was a reach should consider:

• Honestly, there are really only about 10-15 players each year that truly have traditional “first round talent”. Although Smith wasn’t in that group, IMO he’s still a good pick for this team’s needs.
• Drafting at 18-32 is basically a high end second round pick most years.
• Conversely, the number of players who are top end 2nd-3rd round talent is much bigger- especially this year.
• How long has this team needed help stopping the run?

Keeping it in perspective- the draft is hugely important to team development. But man the modern NFL draft is one of the most over-hyped events in sports. More than half of the players drafted each year will play in the NFL LESS than 5 years. Finding a 10 year starter in the draft is about 15-17% chance.

So the overreaction to the draft- either saying we “picked wrong” or got it exactly right is really silly. None of us know what these players are until at least 2-3 years. I’m excited about the Mazi Smith pick and interested to see who else we draft the next two days. But whoever it is, it’s waaaaay too early to judge what we’ve acquired.

Keep it all in perspective.

agreed,.

to add to it klancy most likely was their target and Mazi was their 2nd ranked NT/IDL.. they took him.

most fans are most upset because philly got Smith because we passed on him. I really do not care. also look at the run on DL in the first round.. wasnt going to be any of note left in the 2nd, heck wasnt the 4 of the last 5 picks after the DC all DL?? be if we didn't take him hes gone before 32..

 

[big dog cowboy]

For those saying the Mazi Smith pick was a reach should consider:

• Honestly, there are really only about 10-15 players each year that truly have traditional “first round talent”. Although Smith wasn’t in that group, IMO he’s still a good pick for this team’s needs.

He made Will McClay's top 15 list. Good enough for me.

 

[CouchCoach]

This is spot on although I would say I think Mazi is about as high floor of a pick as you can get from a talent perspective. I think he has a Vita Vea light type of ceiling, but realistically a 10% chance or so that he hits it. If he doesn't that's still OK though. If all he ever is ends up being a 2 down above average run defender that's still way better than a total flame out. Get two starter level players with one who can reach a pro bowl and you've had a pretty good draft.

I forget the specific number but I saw a stat recently where only about a third of first round draft picks will make a pro bowl in their entire career.

25% will not be on the active roster of the team that drafted them to start their 4th year of the contract.

 

[shabazz]

In other words- What good is it to get a bunch of guys with great stats but create zero playoff wins?

why does every thread turn into a Prescott/Zeke thread?

 

[CouchCoach]

This pick was dead center in perspective for me because it was needs based.

I think BPA is a joke. Think Smith was at the top of anyone's list when the Cowboys picked? But he was most definitely identified as a player to address a need by McClay and the scouts.

Even if he's a 1st/2nd down player and short yardage on 3rd, he can be a force that contributes to team defense. He does not need to be a pass rusher. The media has fooled too many about the pass rush.

This is the point I believe Quinn has been trying to get to, team defense like he had in SEA. And that was some great team D. And sure there were some standouts but that was solid team defense and forget running on them....while they ran on you.

 

[Flamma]

The NFL Draft and Monday mornings have one thing big thing in common: lots of knee-jerk overreactions.

After the Cowboys drafted Mazi Smith with the 26th pick, the overreactions flooded in. The fans who are disappointed or upset are usually focused on their own “pet cat” that was somehow going to be the key to us making a SB run. And their opinions are often over-hyped by sports talking heads or by a fan’s fascination with a player they loved from their favorite college or by college game film showing the player crushing it against inferior college talent that will not transfer to the next level.

For those saying the Mazi Smith pick was a reach should consider:

• Honestly, there are really only about 10-15 players each year that truly have traditional “first round talent”. Although Smith wasn’t in that group, IMO he’s still a good pick for this team’s needs.
• Drafting at 18-32 is basically a high end second round pick most years.
• Conversely, the number of players who are top end 2nd-3rd round talent is much bigger- especially this year.
• How long has this team needed help stopping the run?

Keeping it in perspective- the draft is hugely important to team development. But man the modern NFL draft is one of the most over-hyped events in sports. More than half of the players drafted each year will play in the NFL LESS than 5 years. Finding a 10 year starter in the draft is about 15-17% chance.

So the overreaction to the draft- either saying we “picked wrong” or got it exactly right is really silly. None of us know what these players are until at least 2-3 years. I’m excited about the Mazi Smith pick and interested to see who else we draft the next two days. But whoever it is, it’s waaaaay too early to judge what we’ve acquired.

Keep it all in perspective.

So true. But what we can do is expect them to make a realistic pick based on the information before them. Mazi might be a bust, but at least TJ. Watt wasn't on the board when we picked him. Now it's a waiting game. Results to be revealed in years to come.

 

[Bobhaze]

This pick was dead center in perspective for me because it was needs based.

I think BPA is a joke. Think Smith was at the top of anyone's list when the Cowboys picked? But he was most definitely identified as a player to address a need by McClay and the scouts.

Even if he's a 1st/2nd down player and short yardage on 3rd, he can be a force that contributes to team defense. He does not need to be a pass rusher. The media has fooled too many about the pass rush.

This is the point I believe Quinn has been trying to get to, team defense like he had in SEA. And that was some great team D. And sure there were some standouts but that was solid team defense and forget running on them....while they ran on you.

Well said. If Mazi Smith helps set up more 3rd and longs because he helped us stuff the run on early downs, then this team has collectively improved.

I am beyond tired of watching this D get gashed in the run game then watch the FO sell day 3 draft picks or a trade for 33 yo Jonathan Hankins as the “fix” for stopping the run. Glad we have Hankins but he alone was never going to be enough.

And there’s plenty of really good players at multiple positions of need on Days 2 and 3.

 

[blueblood70]

This pick was dead center in perspective for me because it was needs based.

I think BPA is a joke. Think Smith was at the top of anyone's list when the Cowboys picked? But he was most definitely identified as a player to address a need by McClay and the scouts.

Even if he's a 1st/2nd down player and short yardage on 3rd, he can be a force that contributes to team defense. He does not need to be a pass rusher. The media has fooled too many about the pass rush.

This is the point I believe Quinn has been trying to get to, team defense like he had in SEA. And that was some great team D. And sure there were some standouts but that was solid team defense and forget running on them....while they ran on you.

LOL you confused me at first, use first names when the controversial picks was smith vs smith Nolan vs Mazi. i wasn't sure which one you were talking about at first,

 

[Vinnie2u]

Dallas fans are the kings and queens of overreacting.

This is the way...