Risen Star
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Biggest winners from Round 1
Philadelphia Eagles
The picks: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia (No. 9); Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia (No. 30).
Wow! The rich get richer. Philadelphia moved up one spot, trading Chicago a 2024 fourth-round pick, to get the No. 1 overall prospect on my Big Board. The Eagles are going to reunite Carter with former Georgia teammate Jordan Davis -- the two formed an outstanding interior duo in 2021. I love this pick. This team has the locker-room leadership to make sure Carter stays on track and plays to his potential.
Then the Eagles added another Bulldog late, getting my 12th-ranked player at No. 30. Smith missed half of the 2022 season with a torn pectoral muscle, but he has rare physical tools. He flies off the edge. I thought he'd go much higher. Philly is putting together a defense filled with national champions -- it also picked up linebacker Nakobe Dean last year. This is a great start for the Eagles.
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Seattle Seahawks
The picks: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois (No. 5); Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State (No. 20)
This is a nice Round 1 for Seattle, which owned a top-five pick as part of the Russell Wilson trade. While I would have gone with Jalen Carter over Witherspoon, the cornerback combo of Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen could quickly become one of the league's best. Witherspoon is my top-ranked corner, a true lockdown cover guy who can run with any receiver. For a team that wants to compete in the NFC West, he's ready to play as a rookie.
As for Smith-Njigba, he complements Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf extremely well, as I mentioned a month ago when I first made this pairing. I thought he might go a little bit higher, but he landed in a great spot. We're talking about a player who put up 1,600 yards and nine scores in 2021 when he was healthy. He can play outside or inside. Geno Smith has to be thrilled with this addition.
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Baltimore Ravens
The pick: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College (No. 22)
What a day for Baltimore, which locked down Lamar Jackson for five more years and then got its quarterback a playmaker in Flowers, one of my favorite prospects in this entire class. He'll make Jackson's life so much easier. He can run every route, and he'll dominate out of the slot. Yes, the Ravens signed Odell Beckham Jr., but that was just a one-year deal. They have plenty of room for Flowers.
The Baltimore wide receivers combined for 248 receiving yards when lined up in the slot last season, fewest in the NFL. Flowers plugs a big hole.
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Pittsburgh Steelers
The pick: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia (No. 14)
Pittsburgh got a plug-and-play starter at tackle. He didn't allow a single sack on 446 pass-block snaps for the national champs last season. The Steelers moved up three spots with the Patriots, trading away No. 120 overall to do it, and these are the types of trades up the board I like. Giving up a fourth-round pick won't hurt the rest of this team's haul, which includes two second-round picks. I expect Jones to start in Week 1.
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New England Patriots
The pick: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon (No. 17)
I also liked what the Patriots did with their part of the trade with the Steelers. Gonzalez is my ninth-ranked prospect, and I thought he was a lock for the top 10. He could be a steal for the Patriots, who have a hole in the defensive backfield and didn't look like a typical Bill Belichick secondary in 2022. Gonzalez can thrive in man or zone coverage.
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More picks I liked
I wanted to put Arizona in the "winners" category after it added a super-valuable 2024 first-round pick from Houston, but then it went and moved up six spots with Detroit, giving away No. 34 overall. Paris Johnson Jr. (No. 6 overall) is my top-ranked offensive tackle, and he'll be great there. But I can't put the Cardinals as a clear winner.
No. 15 overall pick Will McDonald IV is going to wreak havoc off the edge for the Jets. The edge rusher had 10 career forced fumbles for Iowa State. He's another one of my favorite prospects in this draft.
Speaking of, No. 16 overall pick Emmanuel Forbes is another guy I really like. The 6-foot-1, 166-pound cornerback has a slim frame, but he just makes plays -- he had six pick-sixes at Mississippi State, after all. He has phenomenal ball skills.
Cornerback Deonte Banks is a nice pickup for the Giants, who had just six interceptions all of last season. Banks is fast and tough. He did not allow a catch of over 30 yards all season. The Giants got him at No. 24, and he's No. 20 in my rankings.
How about the Bills moving up for my top-ranked tight end Dalton Kincaid at No. 25 to pair him with Dalton Knox? That's a fun combination, and you know Josh Allen has to love it. Kincaid has the speed to outrun safeties.
Buffalo jumped Dallas for Kincaid, so the Cowboys pivoted to run-stuffer Mazi Smith at No. 26. He's a powerful defensive tackle. Stopping the run was their biggest issue on defense last season.
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Teams that made head-scratching moves in Round 1
Detroit Lions
The picks: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama (No. 12); Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa (No. 18)
I thought I would like this Lions class when they traded down at No. 6. At that time, they owned pick Nos. 12, 18, 34, 48 and 55. But I just don't get these two choices.
Let's start with Gibbs, a multi-dimensional player who racked up receptions for the Crimson Tide. Look who else was on the board at 12, though. One of the cornerbacks -- Christian Gonzalez or Emmanuel Forbes or Deonte Banks -- or edge rusher Nolan Smith made more sense to me. Yes, Detroit has a bunch more picks on Day 2, but it could have found a running back there instead of at No. 12.
As for Campbell, it's a reach of 40 spots on in my rankings. He's my third-ranked inside linebacker. I thought he'd go in the middle of Round 2 instead. When we talk about positional value, both of these positions are not usually prioritized in the first round, so this is the very definition of head-scratching. The funny thing is I had pegged Campbell to Detroit at No. 48 in my two-round mock a couple of weeks ago. There were much better players available when Detroit took him.
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Houston Texans
The picks: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State (No. 2); Will Anderson Jr., OLB, Alabama (No. 3)
Well, the Houston front office can keep a secret. General manager Nick Caserio kept the pick of Stroud under lock and key. Two weeks ago, I thought he was definitely going to the Texans. Recently, though, I heard a ton about them passing on a quarterback in the top five and going with an edge rusher. And on draft day, they did ... both.
The Texans made back-to-back stunning moves, first taking Stroud and then trading up for Anderson with the Cardinals. They gave up a ton in the process -- pick Nos. 12 and 33 in this draft, along with first- and third-rounders in 2024. In return, they got Anderson and pick No. 105.
In a vacuum, I love the prospects they added. Yes, Stroud is my third-ranked passer, but I had him at No. 5 overall on my Big Board -- he was just behind Will Levis in my position rankings. Anderson had outstanding sack production in college and could rack up 10 sacks per season. The reason I wrote "in a vacuum" there is because of the haul Houston had to send to move up. This is a roster that needs a ton of help, so are we sure that 2024 first-rounder won't end up in the top five again? Houston no longer has a second-round pick in this draft.
That's why I'm putting Houston in the head-scratching category, even though I'm hedging a little bit. I like the players, but I don't love the trade for a team that is still rebuilding.
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Green Bay Packers
The pick: Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa (No. 13)
This is a reach. Green Bay passed up its chance to take any of the wide receivers and any of the tight ends for Van Ness, a 6-foot-5, 272-pound hulking edge rusher. Why not help out inexperienced quarterback Jordan Love? Van Ness is No. 27 overall on my board; I actually thought he could go back to Iowa and get some more seasoning ahead of the 2024 draft.
And if they wanted an edge rusher, Myles Murphy and Will McDonald IV are higher in my rankings. I don't love this one.
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Atlanta Falcons
The pick: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas (No. 8)
This is really high for a running back, when there is so much evidence teams can find value on Days 2 and 3 of the draft and get just as much production. Atlanta went that route last year in fifth-rounder Tyler Allgeier, who averaged 4.9 yards per carry as a rookie.
Listen, Robinson is a fantastic player with juice as a receiver too. But I can like the prospect but not love the value, and that's how I feel here. Atlanta could have taken a cornerback or edge rusher and filled a need.
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Las Vegas Raiders
The pick: Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech (No. 7)
Look, I get it, Wilson is a high-upside pass-rusher with a 6-foot-6 frame, and those types of guys go in the top 10. But this is a reach on my board, especially with cornerback Christian Gonzalez still available when Las Vegas picked. Corner is a bigger need for this team.
I have Wilson at No. 16 overall on my board. His traits didn't always match his production -- he wasn't as dominant as he should have been in the Big 12. Plus, he has a foot injury and didn't work out before the draft. There's some risk here.
Philadelphia Eagles
The picks: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia (No. 9); Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia (No. 30).
Wow! The rich get richer. Philadelphia moved up one spot, trading Chicago a 2024 fourth-round pick, to get the No. 1 overall prospect on my Big Board. The Eagles are going to reunite Carter with former Georgia teammate Jordan Davis -- the two formed an outstanding interior duo in 2021. I love this pick. This team has the locker-room leadership to make sure Carter stays on track and plays to his potential.
Then the Eagles added another Bulldog late, getting my 12th-ranked player at No. 30. Smith missed half of the 2022 season with a torn pectoral muscle, but he has rare physical tools. He flies off the edge. I thought he'd go much higher. Philly is putting together a defense filled with national champions -- it also picked up linebacker Nakobe Dean last year. This is a great start for the Eagles.
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Seattle Seahawks
The picks: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois (No. 5); Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State (No. 20)
This is a nice Round 1 for Seattle, which owned a top-five pick as part of the Russell Wilson trade. While I would have gone with Jalen Carter over Witherspoon, the cornerback combo of Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen could quickly become one of the league's best. Witherspoon is my top-ranked corner, a true lockdown cover guy who can run with any receiver. For a team that wants to compete in the NFC West, he's ready to play as a rookie.
As for Smith-Njigba, he complements Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf extremely well, as I mentioned a month ago when I first made this pairing. I thought he might go a little bit higher, but he landed in a great spot. We're talking about a player who put up 1,600 yards and nine scores in 2021 when he was healthy. He can play outside or inside. Geno Smith has to be thrilled with this addition.
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Baltimore Ravens
The pick: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College (No. 22)
What a day for Baltimore, which locked down Lamar Jackson for five more years and then got its quarterback a playmaker in Flowers, one of my favorite prospects in this entire class. He'll make Jackson's life so much easier. He can run every route, and he'll dominate out of the slot. Yes, the Ravens signed Odell Beckham Jr., but that was just a one-year deal. They have plenty of room for Flowers.
The Baltimore wide receivers combined for 248 receiving yards when lined up in the slot last season, fewest in the NFL. Flowers plugs a big hole.
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Pittsburgh Steelers
The pick: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia (No. 14)
Pittsburgh got a plug-and-play starter at tackle. He didn't allow a single sack on 446 pass-block snaps for the national champs last season. The Steelers moved up three spots with the Patriots, trading away No. 120 overall to do it, and these are the types of trades up the board I like. Giving up a fourth-round pick won't hurt the rest of this team's haul, which includes two second-round picks. I expect Jones to start in Week 1.
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New England Patriots
The pick: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon (No. 17)
I also liked what the Patriots did with their part of the trade with the Steelers. Gonzalez is my ninth-ranked prospect, and I thought he was a lock for the top 10. He could be a steal for the Patriots, who have a hole in the defensive backfield and didn't look like a typical Bill Belichick secondary in 2022. Gonzalez can thrive in man or zone coverage.
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More picks I liked
I wanted to put Arizona in the "winners" category after it added a super-valuable 2024 first-round pick from Houston, but then it went and moved up six spots with Detroit, giving away No. 34 overall. Paris Johnson Jr. (No. 6 overall) is my top-ranked offensive tackle, and he'll be great there. But I can't put the Cardinals as a clear winner.
No. 15 overall pick Will McDonald IV is going to wreak havoc off the edge for the Jets. The edge rusher had 10 career forced fumbles for Iowa State. He's another one of my favorite prospects in this draft.
Speaking of, No. 16 overall pick Emmanuel Forbes is another guy I really like. The 6-foot-1, 166-pound cornerback has a slim frame, but he just makes plays -- he had six pick-sixes at Mississippi State, after all. He has phenomenal ball skills.
Cornerback Deonte Banks is a nice pickup for the Giants, who had just six interceptions all of last season. Banks is fast and tough. He did not allow a catch of over 30 yards all season. The Giants got him at No. 24, and he's No. 20 in my rankings.
How about the Bills moving up for my top-ranked tight end Dalton Kincaid at No. 25 to pair him with Dalton Knox? That's a fun combination, and you know Josh Allen has to love it. Kincaid has the speed to outrun safeties.
Buffalo jumped Dallas for Kincaid, so the Cowboys pivoted to run-stuffer Mazi Smith at No. 26. He's a powerful defensive tackle. Stopping the run was their biggest issue on defense last season.
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Teams that made head-scratching moves in Round 1
Detroit Lions
The picks: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama (No. 12); Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa (No. 18)
I thought I would like this Lions class when they traded down at No. 6. At that time, they owned pick Nos. 12, 18, 34, 48 and 55. But I just don't get these two choices.
Let's start with Gibbs, a multi-dimensional player who racked up receptions for the Crimson Tide. Look who else was on the board at 12, though. One of the cornerbacks -- Christian Gonzalez or Emmanuel Forbes or Deonte Banks -- or edge rusher Nolan Smith made more sense to me. Yes, Detroit has a bunch more picks on Day 2, but it could have found a running back there instead of at No. 12.
As for Campbell, it's a reach of 40 spots on in my rankings. He's my third-ranked inside linebacker. I thought he'd go in the middle of Round 2 instead. When we talk about positional value, both of these positions are not usually prioritized in the first round, so this is the very definition of head-scratching. The funny thing is I had pegged Campbell to Detroit at No. 48 in my two-round mock a couple of weeks ago. There were much better players available when Detroit took him.
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Houston Texans
The picks: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State (No. 2); Will Anderson Jr., OLB, Alabama (No. 3)
Well, the Houston front office can keep a secret. General manager Nick Caserio kept the pick of Stroud under lock and key. Two weeks ago, I thought he was definitely going to the Texans. Recently, though, I heard a ton about them passing on a quarterback in the top five and going with an edge rusher. And on draft day, they did ... both.
The Texans made back-to-back stunning moves, first taking Stroud and then trading up for Anderson with the Cardinals. They gave up a ton in the process -- pick Nos. 12 and 33 in this draft, along with first- and third-rounders in 2024. In return, they got Anderson and pick No. 105.
In a vacuum, I love the prospects they added. Yes, Stroud is my third-ranked passer, but I had him at No. 5 overall on my Big Board -- he was just behind Will Levis in my position rankings. Anderson had outstanding sack production in college and could rack up 10 sacks per season. The reason I wrote "in a vacuum" there is because of the haul Houston had to send to move up. This is a roster that needs a ton of help, so are we sure that 2024 first-rounder won't end up in the top five again? Houston no longer has a second-round pick in this draft.
That's why I'm putting Houston in the head-scratching category, even though I'm hedging a little bit. I like the players, but I don't love the trade for a team that is still rebuilding.
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Green Bay Packers
The pick: Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa (No. 13)
This is a reach. Green Bay passed up its chance to take any of the wide receivers and any of the tight ends for Van Ness, a 6-foot-5, 272-pound hulking edge rusher. Why not help out inexperienced quarterback Jordan Love? Van Ness is No. 27 overall on my board; I actually thought he could go back to Iowa and get some more seasoning ahead of the 2024 draft.
And if they wanted an edge rusher, Myles Murphy and Will McDonald IV are higher in my rankings. I don't love this one.
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Atlanta Falcons
The pick: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas (No. 8)
This is really high for a running back, when there is so much evidence teams can find value on Days 2 and 3 of the draft and get just as much production. Atlanta went that route last year in fifth-rounder Tyler Allgeier, who averaged 4.9 yards per carry as a rookie.
Listen, Robinson is a fantastic player with juice as a receiver too. But I can like the prospect but not love the value, and that's how I feel here. Atlanta could have taken a cornerback or edge rusher and filled a need.
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Las Vegas Raiders
The pick: Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech (No. 7)
Look, I get it, Wilson is a high-upside pass-rusher with a 6-foot-6 frame, and those types of guys go in the top 10. But this is a reach on my board, especially with cornerback Christian Gonzalez still available when Las Vegas picked. Corner is a bigger need for this team.
I have Wilson at No. 16 overall on my board. His traits didn't always match his production -- he wasn't as dominant as he should have been in the Big 12. Plus, he has a foot injury and didn't work out before the draft. There's some risk here.
