Risen Star
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In my poll of 16 scouts asking them to rank the quarterbacks 1-2-3-4-5, with a first-place vote worth 5 points, a second worth 4 and so on, six received votes and then landed in their own distinct strata. The vote showed Williams with 13 firsts and 75 points. Daniels was next with three firsts and 62 points, followed by Drake Maye (45), J.J. McCarthy (33), Michael Penix (20) and Bo Nix (five).
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QUARTERBACKS
1. CALEB WILLIAMS, Southern Cal (6-1, 217, no 40, 1): His career passer rating of 118.9 using the NFL scale was the best of this class. “I think Caleb has the best chance to bust but also has the best chance to be freakin’ special,” one scout said. “I think he’s boom or bust. There are plays he makes that are fantastic where he scrambles and throws 50 yards downfield for a touchdown. Then you look at that play and there are simpler options that he doesn’t see or ignored.” Replaced Spencer Rattler and started the final seven games of his freshman season at Oklahoma. “Obviously, it’s very similar to how (Patrick) Mahomes played at Texas Tech,” a second scout said. “He constantly is trying to hit the grand slam against just taking the single or the double. I have a hard time believing you can’t coach that out of him. Caleb is the most natural thrower of the four. Seventy yards in the air, arched on a dime. Effortless. Throwing moving to his right from his hip 25 yards downfield on a line. My biggest concern will be his height. It does look at times he struggles to see in the pocket. That’s why he likes to move. He just does things other guys can’t do. Blend that in with being able to play on time and he’s going to be outstanding.” Declined to take a medical exam or test at the combine. “The biggest chance for bust is if Caleb Williams goes to Chicago,” a third scout said. “It’s going to be a lot tougher than people think. He’s got a lot of talent but, wow, he’s had red carpet treatment since the 9th grade. This is getting ready to be a whole different deal. It’s the Chicago media, then the comparison. If (Justin) Fields goes and does anything in Pittsburgh it won’t play well. And the pressure … he ended up in the stands (clutching his mother at the Coliseum Nov. 4 after a loss to Washington) crying like a baby. For a lot of scouts that was a disqualifier. Then you got the painted fingernails, the cars, special treatment. He knows one offense, which you can write on one piece of paper, with Lincoln Riley. Of all those OU quarterbacks he’s the most gifted but none of them have really done it in the league. And Williams’ workout (at pro day) wasn’t godawful but just mediocre.” According to one club official, his father, Carl, told him “it’s too windy in Chicago. Why should we go to Chicago when the open-air stadium is not a place Caleb will like?” Said the official: “You talk about self-serving, vicariously live through your son b.s. He needs to get away from his old man. … I like the kid. He gets a little caught up in the LA ********, but once he gets with somebody strong he’ll be fine. Because Lincoln Riley’s not a strong guy, either.” Three of his five interceptions in 2023 came at South Bend in a 48-20 loss to Notre Dame. “I’m going Jayden Daniels because I can’t get the f--king Notre Dame game out of my head,” a fifth scout said. “A lot of Caleb is when he’s just running around kind of being playground. He’s also kind of making it about myself.” One of the scouts said Williams, who posted a 23-10 record as a starter, shouldn’t be thrust into the lineup immediately. “You better have the right offensive coordinator for him and do not rush him into the NFL,” he said. “In today’s football everybody wants to rush guys. Let him sit for a while. Let him process.” An executive with an established quarterback has followed Williams from afar. “He just comes out with these things that are kind of spoiled and demanding,” he said. “I don’t know if it’s the people around him or what it is. Whether this is the case with him or not, when you get a guy that in his mind feels like you’re fortunate he’s there, it can come off that way and rub teammates the wrong way. I don’t know if he’s got that but he can’t come in with that. People are going to have to jell with him immediately. Because if they don’t, it might be an issue from a leadership standpoint.” From Washington, D.C. Hands were 9 ¾ inches.
2. JAYDEN DANIELS, Louisiana State (6-3 ½, 210, no 40, 1): His NFL passer rating jumped from 101.9 in 2022 to 145.3 in ’23. “I’m assuming Chicago is taking Williams but they were at that workout and Williams’ was mediocre and Jayden’s was pretty good,” one scout said. “I wouldn’t be stunned if that happened (the Bears pick Daniels). I have a little more appreciation for what Jayden did this year. He had a spectacular year, no doubt about it. There’s a lot of momentum for him but it doesn’t come without some concerns.” Daniels rushed for 3,307 yards in five seasons compared to 966 for Williams in three. His aggressive style of running, however, raises durability issues. “He was 185 at Arizona State (in 2021),” one scout said. “At that point in time there was so much concern over his physical body weight. He was putting up stats in every game but don’t trust him to win the big game, which you saw this year. With Jayden, you’re going to see a lot of running very early on. He doesn’t have the poise, the processing to hang in there and find a receiver like a lot of guys can do. (Scrambling) isn’t the worst thing in the world. A lot of guys have made a good living doing it. Jayden has that instant speed. I’d estimate he’d run 4.45. Justin Fields has more build-long speed. Jayden takes off and it’s full speed quick, which is a huge benefit for him. It’ll come down to can he stay healthy. I think you’re going to see a lot of flaws in his game that everyone saw the first four years he was playing college football and aren’t even being talked about now.” The Tigers, ranked fifth at the start of last season, ended up 12th after going 10-3. Daniels’ record for LSU against top-20 teams was 3-5. “Athletic freak,” another scout said. “Still going to have to learn the nuances of an NFL defense and read coverages a little bit better. He was surrounded by really good, skilled athletes at receiver. The question is, can he overcome that? He’s got a lot of gifts and a lot of savvy and has played a lot of football.” Several scouts worried that his mother, Regina, might have an adverse effect on his career. “She pushed him to leave school after the (2022) season,” said one. “She will show up to the facility at times. She will probably move to wherever he goes.” His career passer rating was 109.1. His record was 37-18. His hands were 9 3/8. “I just didn’t see consistency from a condensed pocket,” one scout said. “When it’s clean, he’s really good. He has rhythm and had really good playmakers on the outside. But in gotta-have-it, pressure situations, when it looked more like an NFL game, I thought his accuracy declined. I’m somewhat nitpicking. At the college level, you can see an off-placement throw and it’s a catch. At our level, some of those limitations are magnified. I thought he’d struggle a little bit playing with a lot more (pressure) in the pocket.” From San Bernardino, Calif.
3. DRAKE MAYE, North Carolina (6-4 ½, 227, no 40, 1): Backed up Sam Howell in 2021 and then went 17-9 as the starter in 2022-’23. “Andrew Luck was further along than Drake Maye but the talent level is somewhat similar,” said one scout. “His pro day was really good. He throws a great deep ball for a guy that’s not supposed to have an elite arm. His accuracy and touch are his secret sauce. That’s what he’s really good at.” Finished with a passer rating of 106.3. Rushed for 1,209. “He’s the Jared Goff clone with his mobility,” a second scout said. “Goff ran 4.82. I’d say he’s 4.75.” Hands were 9 1/8. “I see a gifted athlete who can make all the passes,” a third scout said. “In the ’23 season he had a really bad offensive line and got exposed a little bit. There was a degree of inconsistency with his throwing motion and his throwing accuracy. I still think there’s upside with this guy, and he’s young (will be 22 in August). I do see him as a Pro Bowl starter.” Comes from an enormously athletic family. “He’s gotten close to Philip Rivers, who’s a little bit of a hillbilly from Alabama who went to NC State,” a fourth scout said. “Maye is from Charlotte and went to Carolina. So you think this guy’s going to have some polish. He walked in the room and he sounded like Jethro Bodine on the Beverly Hillbillies. We just went, ‘Who is this guy?’ Watching the tape, all this animation. This kid is sort of wound tight trying to be something he’s not … I thought his tape was kind of average, to be honest. He needs a year to just sit, and I don’t know if the teams that are going to take him can do that. I think it’s going to be real hard. He is not explosive with his arm. He’s a good athlete, but you see very few plays where he just rips the ball into a tight window. One thing I noticed was that all his takeoffs were into the boundary, the short side of the field. Any time he threw to the field (side) was to the slot (receiver) down the hashmark. I kind of thought they even recognized that there were some arm strength issues there. I thought I was going to turn on the tape, sit back and watch the show. After about five throws I went, ‘Are you kidding me? All this hype over this guy?’” His family lives in Huntersville, N.C. “He’s got all the physical tools,” a fifth scout said. “Sometimes there’s some wiring … there’s some Daniel Jones in there. Sometimes when it gets a little hairy, what’s he wired like?”
4. J.J. McCARTHY, Michigan (6-2 ½, 215, no 40, 1): Of the top four quarterbacks only McCarthy truly elevated his team. “He’s got major weaknesses but there’s something about that kid that is absolutely special,” one scout said. “He completely changed that rivalry (Ohio State-Michigan). He singlehandedly won both of those games. The one in Columbus (in 2022), people don’t realize some of those throws he made in that game. Then his ability to never get off the field and extend plays is uncanny. All this talk that Michigan built him and it was (Jim) Harbaugh and the O-line. Their O-line sucked this year … The 9-inch hand and the way he throws the ball really scares me. It’s one speed. He has no ability to layer balls in between defenders. Everything’s a fastball. His deep balls are line drives, which is very unfriendly to receivers especially when he gets to this level and it’s contested and not just wide open. But there’s magic. There are these guys that seem to always do this and it always works. The throws by Mahomes early in his career when he’d throw into coverage and it somehow landed in the lap of the Kansas City guy. I don’t know if he’s got this magic to him or if it’s just luck. You’re drafting a guy whose character has been so overhyped you’re neglecting some of these holes. It’s somewhere in between.” Third-year junior won the job in Game 2 of 2022 from Cade McNamara. “I don’t think he’ll fail,” a second scout said. “I saw him as a Kirk Cousins type player.” Finished with a passer rating of 111.3. Rushed for 632. “I like him as a short-to-intermediate passer,” said a third scout. “He’s smart. He’ll distribute the ball. But I don’t see him as a guy who will win a game for you on his own.” His record was 27-1. “He’s better than Harbaugh was,” a fourth scout said. “It’s difficult to have a personality like Harbaugh but he might be close. He does some different things. Meditation, all this he does. He’s got feet. He’s at least a 4.5 guy. He’s got a strong arm. But everything about this guy is development. He won’t make as big an impact maybe as the three above him at first but he can overtake Caleb Williams and Maye. If you play for Jim Harbaugh and win a national championship, you’re good.” In October, Michigan’s athletic department released a 3-minute video in which McCarthy discussed the “big depression” he fell into as a senior in high school and the value of meditation. “He has championed the mental health stuff,” said a fifth scout. “But in the NFL, those fans aren’t going to be the same. You’re going to do that at Arrowhead? Foxborough? Those fans are going to destroy this poor kid if he’s out there sitting under the goal post an hour and a half before the game. It’s part of his resume. You got to make sure you understand that and that’s going to be something you’re going to be involved in with him. How do you replicate the cockpit and the nest he was in at Michigan. It’s hard.” Averaged 22.1 pass attempts in the Wolverines’ 15-0 title season. “He still doesn’t have much experience because he hasn’t thrown the ball very much,” said a sixth scout. “There’s a level of immaturity that he’s going to have to work through. He’s a good kid (but) he doesn’t know what he doesn’t know. It’s kind of buyer beware.” From La Grange Park, Ill.
5. MICHAEL PENIX, Washington (6-2, 216, 4.58, 1-2): While the top four quarterbacks along with Bo Nix, Michael Pratt and Devin Leary declined to run a 40, Penix blistered a 4.58 at pro day. One scout estimated he’d run 4.9; another guessed 4.75 to 4.8. “If he goes in the first round I wouldn’t be shocked,” said one scout. “If Tua (Tagovailoa) went top 10 (No. 5 in 2020), I don’t know why this guy can’t go top 10. He’s a better athlete. He throws it just as well. It’s all timing and rhythm. They’re both not great outside extending plays.” Went 12-5 as the starter at Indiana from 2019-’21; in ’20, the Hoosiers cracked the Top 10 for the first time since 1969. “He did a lot of stuff outside the pocket at Indiana,” a second scout said. “When I saw him at Washington I was shocked. He wasn’t the same guy. He stayed in the pocket and made good decisions. He was best throwing outside the numbers (in 2023). He can throw the back shoulders, the fades and ups.” His four seasons at IU ended with four season-ending injuries: two torn right ACLs, a right shoulder dislocation and a left shoulder dislocation. “I can’t get the damn Indiana tape out of my mind,” said a third scout. “It was real bad. Now give the kid credit. He changed scenery and kind of reinvented himself and had a hell of a team this year. He’s got arm strength, big hands and he can fling it, but he’s got like a weird sidearm short release. Accuracy’s up and down. I don’t know how tough this kid is. He shows you fringe starter talent and barely No. 3 talent. But there are so many quarterback gurus and experts that, ‘Oh, if I get my hands on him I can do this.’” Hands were 10 ½, largest at the position. “Penix is an incredible passer,” said a fourth scout. “He is a pure passer of the ball. He throws the best deep ball I’ve seen in 30 years. It’s an absolutely beautiful deep ball. But there are a lot of things with him that may not translate. The injury history. Been in the same system at Indiana and UW. How will that translate to new coaches, new system? As far as just going out there and throwing the football, he can do it.” The left-handed Penix posted his best passer rating in 2023 (106.8) to finish his career at 99.4. At Indiana, his rating was 87.9. “You saw him fall apart against Michigan (in the CFP title game),” said a fifth scout. “He’s been pretty fortunate. Good offensive line, quality receivers. He couldn’t get out of the pocket and scramble and get away. He’s had injuries in the past. I wouldn’t want to take him.” From Tampa, Fla.
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QUARTERBACKS
1. CALEB WILLIAMS, Southern Cal (6-1, 217, no 40, 1): His career passer rating of 118.9 using the NFL scale was the best of this class. “I think Caleb has the best chance to bust but also has the best chance to be freakin’ special,” one scout said. “I think he’s boom or bust. There are plays he makes that are fantastic where he scrambles and throws 50 yards downfield for a touchdown. Then you look at that play and there are simpler options that he doesn’t see or ignored.” Replaced Spencer Rattler and started the final seven games of his freshman season at Oklahoma. “Obviously, it’s very similar to how (Patrick) Mahomes played at Texas Tech,” a second scout said. “He constantly is trying to hit the grand slam against just taking the single or the double. I have a hard time believing you can’t coach that out of him. Caleb is the most natural thrower of the four. Seventy yards in the air, arched on a dime. Effortless. Throwing moving to his right from his hip 25 yards downfield on a line. My biggest concern will be his height. It does look at times he struggles to see in the pocket. That’s why he likes to move. He just does things other guys can’t do. Blend that in with being able to play on time and he’s going to be outstanding.” Declined to take a medical exam or test at the combine. “The biggest chance for bust is if Caleb Williams goes to Chicago,” a third scout said. “It’s going to be a lot tougher than people think. He’s got a lot of talent but, wow, he’s had red carpet treatment since the 9th grade. This is getting ready to be a whole different deal. It’s the Chicago media, then the comparison. If (Justin) Fields goes and does anything in Pittsburgh it won’t play well. And the pressure … he ended up in the stands (clutching his mother at the Coliseum Nov. 4 after a loss to Washington) crying like a baby. For a lot of scouts that was a disqualifier. Then you got the painted fingernails, the cars, special treatment. He knows one offense, which you can write on one piece of paper, with Lincoln Riley. Of all those OU quarterbacks he’s the most gifted but none of them have really done it in the league. And Williams’ workout (at pro day) wasn’t godawful but just mediocre.” According to one club official, his father, Carl, told him “it’s too windy in Chicago. Why should we go to Chicago when the open-air stadium is not a place Caleb will like?” Said the official: “You talk about self-serving, vicariously live through your son b.s. He needs to get away from his old man. … I like the kid. He gets a little caught up in the LA ********, but once he gets with somebody strong he’ll be fine. Because Lincoln Riley’s not a strong guy, either.” Three of his five interceptions in 2023 came at South Bend in a 48-20 loss to Notre Dame. “I’m going Jayden Daniels because I can’t get the f--king Notre Dame game out of my head,” a fifth scout said. “A lot of Caleb is when he’s just running around kind of being playground. He’s also kind of making it about myself.” One of the scouts said Williams, who posted a 23-10 record as a starter, shouldn’t be thrust into the lineup immediately. “You better have the right offensive coordinator for him and do not rush him into the NFL,” he said. “In today’s football everybody wants to rush guys. Let him sit for a while. Let him process.” An executive with an established quarterback has followed Williams from afar. “He just comes out with these things that are kind of spoiled and demanding,” he said. “I don’t know if it’s the people around him or what it is. Whether this is the case with him or not, when you get a guy that in his mind feels like you’re fortunate he’s there, it can come off that way and rub teammates the wrong way. I don’t know if he’s got that but he can’t come in with that. People are going to have to jell with him immediately. Because if they don’t, it might be an issue from a leadership standpoint.” From Washington, D.C. Hands were 9 ¾ inches.
2. JAYDEN DANIELS, Louisiana State (6-3 ½, 210, no 40, 1): His NFL passer rating jumped from 101.9 in 2022 to 145.3 in ’23. “I’m assuming Chicago is taking Williams but they were at that workout and Williams’ was mediocre and Jayden’s was pretty good,” one scout said. “I wouldn’t be stunned if that happened (the Bears pick Daniels). I have a little more appreciation for what Jayden did this year. He had a spectacular year, no doubt about it. There’s a lot of momentum for him but it doesn’t come without some concerns.” Daniels rushed for 3,307 yards in five seasons compared to 966 for Williams in three. His aggressive style of running, however, raises durability issues. “He was 185 at Arizona State (in 2021),” one scout said. “At that point in time there was so much concern over his physical body weight. He was putting up stats in every game but don’t trust him to win the big game, which you saw this year. With Jayden, you’re going to see a lot of running very early on. He doesn’t have the poise, the processing to hang in there and find a receiver like a lot of guys can do. (Scrambling) isn’t the worst thing in the world. A lot of guys have made a good living doing it. Jayden has that instant speed. I’d estimate he’d run 4.45. Justin Fields has more build-long speed. Jayden takes off and it’s full speed quick, which is a huge benefit for him. It’ll come down to can he stay healthy. I think you’re going to see a lot of flaws in his game that everyone saw the first four years he was playing college football and aren’t even being talked about now.” The Tigers, ranked fifth at the start of last season, ended up 12th after going 10-3. Daniels’ record for LSU against top-20 teams was 3-5. “Athletic freak,” another scout said. “Still going to have to learn the nuances of an NFL defense and read coverages a little bit better. He was surrounded by really good, skilled athletes at receiver. The question is, can he overcome that? He’s got a lot of gifts and a lot of savvy and has played a lot of football.” Several scouts worried that his mother, Regina, might have an adverse effect on his career. “She pushed him to leave school after the (2022) season,” said one. “She will show up to the facility at times. She will probably move to wherever he goes.” His career passer rating was 109.1. His record was 37-18. His hands were 9 3/8. “I just didn’t see consistency from a condensed pocket,” one scout said. “When it’s clean, he’s really good. He has rhythm and had really good playmakers on the outside. But in gotta-have-it, pressure situations, when it looked more like an NFL game, I thought his accuracy declined. I’m somewhat nitpicking. At the college level, you can see an off-placement throw and it’s a catch. At our level, some of those limitations are magnified. I thought he’d struggle a little bit playing with a lot more (pressure) in the pocket.” From San Bernardino, Calif.
3. DRAKE MAYE, North Carolina (6-4 ½, 227, no 40, 1): Backed up Sam Howell in 2021 and then went 17-9 as the starter in 2022-’23. “Andrew Luck was further along than Drake Maye but the talent level is somewhat similar,” said one scout. “His pro day was really good. He throws a great deep ball for a guy that’s not supposed to have an elite arm. His accuracy and touch are his secret sauce. That’s what he’s really good at.” Finished with a passer rating of 106.3. Rushed for 1,209. “He’s the Jared Goff clone with his mobility,” a second scout said. “Goff ran 4.82. I’d say he’s 4.75.” Hands were 9 1/8. “I see a gifted athlete who can make all the passes,” a third scout said. “In the ’23 season he had a really bad offensive line and got exposed a little bit. There was a degree of inconsistency with his throwing motion and his throwing accuracy. I still think there’s upside with this guy, and he’s young (will be 22 in August). I do see him as a Pro Bowl starter.” Comes from an enormously athletic family. “He’s gotten close to Philip Rivers, who’s a little bit of a hillbilly from Alabama who went to NC State,” a fourth scout said. “Maye is from Charlotte and went to Carolina. So you think this guy’s going to have some polish. He walked in the room and he sounded like Jethro Bodine on the Beverly Hillbillies. We just went, ‘Who is this guy?’ Watching the tape, all this animation. This kid is sort of wound tight trying to be something he’s not … I thought his tape was kind of average, to be honest. He needs a year to just sit, and I don’t know if the teams that are going to take him can do that. I think it’s going to be real hard. He is not explosive with his arm. He’s a good athlete, but you see very few plays where he just rips the ball into a tight window. One thing I noticed was that all his takeoffs were into the boundary, the short side of the field. Any time he threw to the field (side) was to the slot (receiver) down the hashmark. I kind of thought they even recognized that there were some arm strength issues there. I thought I was going to turn on the tape, sit back and watch the show. After about five throws I went, ‘Are you kidding me? All this hype over this guy?’” His family lives in Huntersville, N.C. “He’s got all the physical tools,” a fifth scout said. “Sometimes there’s some wiring … there’s some Daniel Jones in there. Sometimes when it gets a little hairy, what’s he wired like?”
4. J.J. McCARTHY, Michigan (6-2 ½, 215, no 40, 1): Of the top four quarterbacks only McCarthy truly elevated his team. “He’s got major weaknesses but there’s something about that kid that is absolutely special,” one scout said. “He completely changed that rivalry (Ohio State-Michigan). He singlehandedly won both of those games. The one in Columbus (in 2022), people don’t realize some of those throws he made in that game. Then his ability to never get off the field and extend plays is uncanny. All this talk that Michigan built him and it was (Jim) Harbaugh and the O-line. Their O-line sucked this year … The 9-inch hand and the way he throws the ball really scares me. It’s one speed. He has no ability to layer balls in between defenders. Everything’s a fastball. His deep balls are line drives, which is very unfriendly to receivers especially when he gets to this level and it’s contested and not just wide open. But there’s magic. There are these guys that seem to always do this and it always works. The throws by Mahomes early in his career when he’d throw into coverage and it somehow landed in the lap of the Kansas City guy. I don’t know if he’s got this magic to him or if it’s just luck. You’re drafting a guy whose character has been so overhyped you’re neglecting some of these holes. It’s somewhere in between.” Third-year junior won the job in Game 2 of 2022 from Cade McNamara. “I don’t think he’ll fail,” a second scout said. “I saw him as a Kirk Cousins type player.” Finished with a passer rating of 111.3. Rushed for 632. “I like him as a short-to-intermediate passer,” said a third scout. “He’s smart. He’ll distribute the ball. But I don’t see him as a guy who will win a game for you on his own.” His record was 27-1. “He’s better than Harbaugh was,” a fourth scout said. “It’s difficult to have a personality like Harbaugh but he might be close. He does some different things. Meditation, all this he does. He’s got feet. He’s at least a 4.5 guy. He’s got a strong arm. But everything about this guy is development. He won’t make as big an impact maybe as the three above him at first but he can overtake Caleb Williams and Maye. If you play for Jim Harbaugh and win a national championship, you’re good.” In October, Michigan’s athletic department released a 3-minute video in which McCarthy discussed the “big depression” he fell into as a senior in high school and the value of meditation. “He has championed the mental health stuff,” said a fifth scout. “But in the NFL, those fans aren’t going to be the same. You’re going to do that at Arrowhead? Foxborough? Those fans are going to destroy this poor kid if he’s out there sitting under the goal post an hour and a half before the game. It’s part of his resume. You got to make sure you understand that and that’s going to be something you’re going to be involved in with him. How do you replicate the cockpit and the nest he was in at Michigan. It’s hard.” Averaged 22.1 pass attempts in the Wolverines’ 15-0 title season. “He still doesn’t have much experience because he hasn’t thrown the ball very much,” said a sixth scout. “There’s a level of immaturity that he’s going to have to work through. He’s a good kid (but) he doesn’t know what he doesn’t know. It’s kind of buyer beware.” From La Grange Park, Ill.
5. MICHAEL PENIX, Washington (6-2, 216, 4.58, 1-2): While the top four quarterbacks along with Bo Nix, Michael Pratt and Devin Leary declined to run a 40, Penix blistered a 4.58 at pro day. One scout estimated he’d run 4.9; another guessed 4.75 to 4.8. “If he goes in the first round I wouldn’t be shocked,” said one scout. “If Tua (Tagovailoa) went top 10 (No. 5 in 2020), I don’t know why this guy can’t go top 10. He’s a better athlete. He throws it just as well. It’s all timing and rhythm. They’re both not great outside extending plays.” Went 12-5 as the starter at Indiana from 2019-’21; in ’20, the Hoosiers cracked the Top 10 for the first time since 1969. “He did a lot of stuff outside the pocket at Indiana,” a second scout said. “When I saw him at Washington I was shocked. He wasn’t the same guy. He stayed in the pocket and made good decisions. He was best throwing outside the numbers (in 2023). He can throw the back shoulders, the fades and ups.” His four seasons at IU ended with four season-ending injuries: two torn right ACLs, a right shoulder dislocation and a left shoulder dislocation. “I can’t get the damn Indiana tape out of my mind,” said a third scout. “It was real bad. Now give the kid credit. He changed scenery and kind of reinvented himself and had a hell of a team this year. He’s got arm strength, big hands and he can fling it, but he’s got like a weird sidearm short release. Accuracy’s up and down. I don’t know how tough this kid is. He shows you fringe starter talent and barely No. 3 talent. But there are so many quarterback gurus and experts that, ‘Oh, if I get my hands on him I can do this.’” Hands were 10 ½, largest at the position. “Penix is an incredible passer,” said a fourth scout. “He is a pure passer of the ball. He throws the best deep ball I’ve seen in 30 years. It’s an absolutely beautiful deep ball. But there are a lot of things with him that may not translate. The injury history. Been in the same system at Indiana and UW. How will that translate to new coaches, new system? As far as just going out there and throwing the football, he can do it.” The left-handed Penix posted his best passer rating in 2023 (106.8) to finish his career at 99.4. At Indiana, his rating was 87.9. “You saw him fall apart against Michigan (in the CFP title game),” said a fifth scout. “He’s been pretty fortunate. Good offensive line, quality receivers. He couldn’t get out of the pocket and scramble and get away. He’s had injuries in the past. I wouldn’t want to take him.” From Tampa, Fla.
