jterrell
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1. Rashawn Slater --- If you remove all factors and just ask Slater to play NFL football he is the safest pick in this draft. His arms might not be ideal for OT but his athletic profile is otherworldly at OG and he CAN block a guy like Chase Young at LT which we saw with our own two eyes. He is compared to Zack Martin for just how good he can be and the position flex along the OL he offers. Dallas could really use this guy as he improves you day 1 at OG and then offers flex to LT if Tyron is out so you keep your 5 best OL on the field, Hudson Houck style.
2. Ja'Marr Chase --- You can get a good WR in every round of every draft IMO. Kids just play WR or QB by default now so that's where the plus athletes end up. But out of all the guys in the last 2 drafts the safest NFL bet is Chase. He's just the total package of size, speed, hands and production. 84 passes for 1,780 yards in one season. That's just stupid. 4.38 with a 41" vert. Stupid. 6 foot and 210 pounds without being muscled up or stiff. Stupid. Chase can line up anywhere you want him to and terrorize defenses. He's what people pretend Kyle Pitts is.
3. Patrick Surtain Jr. --- Elite athleticism as shown by his insane RAS score of 9.97 out of 10. Elite production and training. Elite intangibles with a former Pro Bowl father/coach so he knows the lifestyle and requirements. Video shows elite technique and he's faced the best of the best in practice and on game days.
4. Trevon Moehrig --- No player affected more passes the last two years of college football than Trevon Moehrig He led college football in pass break-ups per Pro Football Focus. At 20 years old, he put up a 91.2 PFF grade. His 77.7 coverage grade is an elite figure for a safety and he boasts more than 1,000 cover snaps in his career, making him one of the most experienced pass defenders in the draft at any position despite entering this class at just 21 on draft night. Combine this with the fact he has played a ton of man coverage out of the slot and you have him on tape as a single high or split safety. So nothing you ask him to do will be foreign or unproven. And much to chagrin of the Cowboys one of the safest R1 positions is Safety.
5. Trevor Lawrence --- I am lower than most on Lawrence as I don't think he has a ceiling in the top 5 NFL QBs like many project. I think he is mostly a finished product and he has some basic limitations with length, target area and agility just due to being so tall. But I do see him as a top 20 starting QB for sure, 100%. His arm strength, pure speed and accuracy are all plus weapons. He's a mentally sound Carson Wentz to me. There's very little gamble with Trevor imo and it is really hard to find that at QB. My guess is at least 30 teams would take him 1 overall with a couple wildcatters falling in love with the possible upside of other QBs.
Notes---Obvious omissions to discuss.
1. Sewell. I love Sewell. He is a Tyron Smith all over again. But he has some maturity concerns and may need some coddling to get to that All Pro status. He is less consistent on tape than Slater though can make insane plays where he outruns his RB and such as well.
2. Pitts. Kyle Pitts is a unicorn but unlike some other guys he's a tweener without a true position. That's ALWAYS been an NFL red flag because those guys tend to miss as high rates. See Even Engram. So the concern is as you tweak Pitts to fill an NFL role you lose something special. Which for me means he has to be a guy you build the offense around rather than plug and play and that makes me put him with Justin Fields as toys you'd love to have but everything will need to be to maximize their output. I am amazed at how many have fallen for him as their top overall player. His college production isn't in line with that. And for his size and pure speed his vert jump was really poor. So some small cracks in the perfect facade in my opinion. But he absolutely has hands for days, speed and plenty of length. So you could hit the jackpot and build an offense that features him as a yearly All Pro h-back.
3. Justin Fields. Like Pitts above he is a unicorn. They actually have very similar athletic profiles. They also have similar things on the field. Some plays are just majestic and others are ho hum. A lot of the collegiate tape is magic but you wonder if that translates to the NFL. I would take Fields as QB2 in a heartbeat but he's going to require an offense designed for him that develops him as he goes. I think he is Dak Prescott but I wonder if he has Dak's mental makeup. It seems he does from afar but that's a tall bar to meet.
4. Zack Wilson. Wilson has the highest variable at QB to me. I don't love his collegiate body of work. Hasn't played the very best or played with the very best (to be fair). Athletically he is OK but not special. Arm talent is definitely there but he's Tony Romo to me. A gunslinger who will turn it over rather than punt. Does that translate with the right coaching to Romo or does it top out at Mitch Trubisky?
2. Ja'Marr Chase --- You can get a good WR in every round of every draft IMO. Kids just play WR or QB by default now so that's where the plus athletes end up. But out of all the guys in the last 2 drafts the safest NFL bet is Chase. He's just the total package of size, speed, hands and production. 84 passes for 1,780 yards in one season. That's just stupid. 4.38 with a 41" vert. Stupid. 6 foot and 210 pounds without being muscled up or stiff. Stupid. Chase can line up anywhere you want him to and terrorize defenses. He's what people pretend Kyle Pitts is.
3. Patrick Surtain Jr. --- Elite athleticism as shown by his insane RAS score of 9.97 out of 10. Elite production and training. Elite intangibles with a former Pro Bowl father/coach so he knows the lifestyle and requirements. Video shows elite technique and he's faced the best of the best in practice and on game days.
4. Trevon Moehrig --- No player affected more passes the last two years of college football than Trevon Moehrig He led college football in pass break-ups per Pro Football Focus. At 20 years old, he put up a 91.2 PFF grade. His 77.7 coverage grade is an elite figure for a safety and he boasts more than 1,000 cover snaps in his career, making him one of the most experienced pass defenders in the draft at any position despite entering this class at just 21 on draft night. Combine this with the fact he has played a ton of man coverage out of the slot and you have him on tape as a single high or split safety. So nothing you ask him to do will be foreign or unproven. And much to chagrin of the Cowboys one of the safest R1 positions is Safety.
5. Trevor Lawrence --- I am lower than most on Lawrence as I don't think he has a ceiling in the top 5 NFL QBs like many project. I think he is mostly a finished product and he has some basic limitations with length, target area and agility just due to being so tall. But I do see him as a top 20 starting QB for sure, 100%. His arm strength, pure speed and accuracy are all plus weapons. He's a mentally sound Carson Wentz to me. There's very little gamble with Trevor imo and it is really hard to find that at QB. My guess is at least 30 teams would take him 1 overall with a couple wildcatters falling in love with the possible upside of other QBs.
Notes---Obvious omissions to discuss.
1. Sewell. I love Sewell. He is a Tyron Smith all over again. But he has some maturity concerns and may need some coddling to get to that All Pro status. He is less consistent on tape than Slater though can make insane plays where he outruns his RB and such as well.
2. Pitts. Kyle Pitts is a unicorn but unlike some other guys he's a tweener without a true position. That's ALWAYS been an NFL red flag because those guys tend to miss as high rates. See Even Engram. So the concern is as you tweak Pitts to fill an NFL role you lose something special. Which for me means he has to be a guy you build the offense around rather than plug and play and that makes me put him with Justin Fields as toys you'd love to have but everything will need to be to maximize their output. I am amazed at how many have fallen for him as their top overall player. His college production isn't in line with that. And for his size and pure speed his vert jump was really poor. So some small cracks in the perfect facade in my opinion. But he absolutely has hands for days, speed and plenty of length. So you could hit the jackpot and build an offense that features him as a yearly All Pro h-back.
3. Justin Fields. Like Pitts above he is a unicorn. They actually have very similar athletic profiles. They also have similar things on the field. Some plays are just majestic and others are ho hum. A lot of the collegiate tape is magic but you wonder if that translates to the NFL. I would take Fields as QB2 in a heartbeat but he's going to require an offense designed for him that develops him as he goes. I think he is Dak Prescott but I wonder if he has Dak's mental makeup. It seems he does from afar but that's a tall bar to meet.
4. Zack Wilson. Wilson has the highest variable at QB to me. I don't love his collegiate body of work. Hasn't played the very best or played with the very best (to be fair). Athletically he is OK but not special. Arm talent is definitely there but he's Tony Romo to me. A gunslinger who will turn it over rather than punt. Does that translate with the right coaching to Romo or does it top out at Mitch Trubisky?
