My 5 Safest draft picks in 2021

[jterrell]

That sounds good for thoughts

But then it’ll turn into the 2009 special teams draft. We will move down only to have somebody take him

Sorta.
The issue in 2009 was in a very bad draft Dallas chose to maximize darts as opposed to drafting in the top 100 prospects.
The first pick they made was at 69 and they only had 2 guys in the top 100. That draft was trash and there really weren't that many NFL capable players in it.

What Dallas should be doing is rather the opposite. "Instead of getting more darts, get more darts in the top 75 or top 100."
By trying to load up on picks in a really bad draft you just spread the misery thinner.
Instead of bringing 5 guys to camp who weren't NFL caliber you brought 10.

That draft is gross all around for Dallas and most everyone:
https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2009

Some drafts are top heavy, some are just bad altogether and some are very very deep.
2009 was just bad. Dallas traded down because they didn't love guys in R2 but those dregs guys were far better than the R3 and onwards bums they selected.

 

[kskboys]

1. Rashawn Slater --- If you remove all factors and just ask Slater to play NFL football he is the safest pick in this draft. His arms might not be ideal for OT but his athletic profile is otherworldly at OG and he CAN block a guy like Chase Young at LT which we saw with our own two eyes. He is compared to Zack Martin for just how good he can be and the position flex along the OL he offers. Dallas could really use this guy as he improves you day 1 at OG and then offers flex to LT if Tyron is out so you keep your 5 best OL on the field, Hudson Houck style.

2. Ja'Marr Chase --- You can get a good WR in every round of every draft IMO. Kids just play WR or QB by default now so that's where the plus athletes end up. But out of all the guys in the last 2 drafts the safest NFL bet is Chase. He's just the total package of size, speed, hands and production. 84 passes for 1,780 yards in one season. That's just stupid. 4.38 with a 41" vert. Stupid. 6 foot and 210 pounds without being muscled up or stiff. Stupid. Chase can line up anywhere you want him to and terrorize defenses. He's what people pretend Kyle Pitts is.

3. Patrick Surtain Jr. --- Elite athleticism as shown by his insane RAS score of 9.97 out of 10. Elite production and training. Elite intangibles with a former Pro Bowl father/coach so he knows the lifestyle and requirements. Video shows elite technique and he's faced the best of the best in practice and on game days.

4. Trevon Moehrig --- No player affected more passes the last two years of college football than Trevon Moehrig He led college football in pass break-ups per Pro Football Focus. At 20 years old, he put up a 91.2 PFF grade. His 77.7 coverage grade is an elite figure for a safety and he boasts more than 1,000 cover snaps in his career, making him one of the most experienced pass defenders in the draft at any position despite entering this class at just 21 on draft night. Combine this with the fact he has played a ton of man coverage out of the slot and you have him on tape as a single high or split safety. So nothing you ask him to do will be foreign or unproven. And much to chagrin of the Cowboys one of the safest R1 positions is Safety.

5. Trevor Lawrence --- I am lower than most on Lawrence as I don't think he has a ceiling in the top 5 NFL QBs like many project. I think he is mostly a finished product and he has some basic limitations with length, target area and agility just due to being so tall. But I do see him as a top 20 starting QB for sure, 100%. His arm strength, pure speed and accuracy are all plus weapons. He's a mentally sound Carson Wentz to me. There's very little gamble with Trevor imo and it is really hard to find that at QB. My guess is at least 30 teams would take him 1 overall with a couple wildcatters falling in love with the possible upside of other QBs.

Notes---Obvious omissions to discuss.
1. Sewell. I love Sewell. He is a Tyron Smith all over again. But he has some maturity concerns and may need some coddling to get to that All Pro status. He is less consistent on tape than Slater though can make insane plays where he outruns his RB and such as well.

2. Pitts. Kyle Pitts is a unicorn but unlike some other guys he's a tweener without a true position. That's ALWAYS been an NFL red flag because those guys tend to miss as high rates. See Even Engram. So the concern is as you tweak Pitts to fill an NFL role you lose something special. Which for me means he has to be a guy you build the offense around rather than plug and play and that makes me put him with Justin Fields as toys you'd love to have but everything will need to be to maximize their output. I am amazed at how many have fallen for him as their top overall player. His college production isn't in line with that. And for his size and pure speed his vert jump was really poor. So some small cracks in the perfect facade in my opinion. But he absolutely has hands for days, speed and plenty of length. So you could hit the jackpot and build an offense that features him as a yearly All Pro h-back.

3. Justin Fields. Like Pitts above he is a unicorn. They actually have very similar athletic profiles. They also have similar things on the field. Some plays are just majestic and others are ho hum. A lot of the collegiate tape is magic but you wonder if that translates to the NFL. I would take Fields as QB2 in a heartbeat but he's going to require an offense designed for him that develops him as he goes. I think he is Dak Prescott but I wonder if he has Dak's mental makeup. It seems he does from afar but that's a tall bar to meet.

4. Zack Wilson. Wilson has the highest variable at QB to me. I don't love his collegiate body of work. Hasn't played the very best or played with the very best (to be fair). Athletically he is OK but not special. Arm talent is definitely there but he's Tony Romo to me. A gunslinger who will turn it over rather than punt. Does that translate with the right coaching to Romo or does it top out at Mitch Trubisky?

Only one I disagree w/ you on is Chase. (Respectfully). Too straightlinish for me, and to me that's a big red flag. I'm not saying he's a terrible prospect at all, just saying that removes him from can't miss in my book.

I think Smith is the can't miss at WR, though his weight really bothers me as he may lack the body armor to avoid injuries.

 

[kskboys]

Sorta.
The issue in 2009 was in a very bad draft Dallas chose to maximize darts as opposed to drafting in the top 100 prospects.
The first pick they made was at 69 and they only had 2 guys in the top 100. That draft was trash and there really weren't that many NFL capable players in it.

What Dallas should be doing is rather the opposite. "Instead of getting more darts, get more darts in the top 75 or top 100."
By trying to load up on picks in a really bad draft you just spread the misery thinner.
Instead of bringing 5 guys to camp who weren't NFL caliber you brought 10.

That draft is gross all around for Dallas and most everyone:
https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2009

Some drafts are top heavy, some are just bad altogether and some are very very deep.
2009 was just bad. Dallas traded down because they didn't love guys in R2 but those dregs guys were far better than the R3 and onwards bums they selected.

Agree. I wanted to package and trade up in the 09 draft. Agree completely w/ focusing on getting a starter in round 1 rather than trading looking past that round. There are exceptions.

 

[J-man]

I see Fields as a potential bust (as in just ave QB) candidate so I can't put him on this list.

To me the top 5 safest players are:
Chase, Pitts, Sewell, Lawrence and Surtain
Injuries aside, I don't see any of them having anything but very good careers.

 

[jterrell]

Yes so just exactly what is he? Witten was a pretty good blocker, but he was 265 lbs, Pitts is 244. And he probably can put on weight, but will that slow him down off his 4.44 forty time?
And if he can't block in the NFL that well, after the weight gain he may be slow for a wide receiver. Has to drop weight and learn how to be an NFL receiver.

He's never played a down in the NFL, how many "sure fire, can't miss, blue chip" college players have been NFL busts? Every year there's some college player that teams go nuts over based purely on NFL potential. John Ross blew everybody away with his 4.22 forty time, drafted 9th overall. What is his NFL resume? 4 years, 51 catches for 733 yards.

If some team wants to draft Pitts in the first 10, fine, could work out great. But he could also not do great....

I think he is the best HBack in football.
Now the issue. Who runs an actual HBack?
In Dallas they do not because Cole Beasley, Randall Cobb and now CeeDee Lamb have proven a 3rd WR is preferable to an HBack thus far the past decade.

BUT Pitts would be stellar in that role.

The question is just is he stellar enough to change your offense and bump a WR from the formation?

He had 20 pass block attempts last year. He's 245 on a 6'6" frame. That's really light in the lower body for leverage sake. So you are basically saying OK he is WR3 with a blocking TE on the field and then we go 2 minute with him and 3 WR which is playing 4 WR essentially and keep the back in to block.

He presents some tasty match up issues for defenses but in doing so does he make you predictable? Guess we shall see in 6 months.

 

[LACowboysFan1]

I think he is the best HBack in football.
Now the issue. Who runs an actual HBack?
In Dallas they do not because Cole Beasley, Randall Cobb and now CeeDee Lamb have proven a 3rd WR is preferable to an HBack thus far the past decade.

BUT Pitts would be stellar in that role.

The question is just is he stellar enough to change your offense and bump a WR from the formation?

He had 20 pass block attempts last year. He's 245 on a 6'6" frame. That's really light in the lower body for leverage sake. So you are basically saying OK he is WR3 with a blocking TE on the field and then we go 2 minute with him and 3 WR which is playing 4 WR essentially and keep the back in to block.

He presents some tasty match up issues for defenses but in doing so does he make you predictable? Guess we shall see in 6 months.

Agreed, the problem is, if he replaces a receiver in certain formations, is he a bigger (pun unintended) threat than the receiver he replaces? Cooper, Gallup or Lamb? Even if he is, he's not going to bump up the scoring like 7-10 pts a game, unless Dallas goes to a high powered passing offense and throw the ball 40-45 times again, and I don't see Dallas as having that kind of offense, and frankly don't see Dak as that kind of quarterback.

If somehow he fell to Dallas I'd not be tremendously upset if they picked him, but I'd be afraid the only difference he'd make is the Cowboys lose games by a score of 35-31 instead of 35-28, the defense was awful, and I don't believe it was all Nolan's fault, there are deficiencies all over the defense...

 

[JoeKing]

I like the write-ups but I disagree with the rankings. I would put Sewell at no. 1 and Slater @ 2. Either one would be a homerun pick for the Cowboys. I just have a personal preference for Sewell. Go get him Cowboys, reach if you have to.

 

[ultron]

I trade every pick we have to make sure we get Surtain and Moehrig in this draft

 

[speedkilz88]

Kyle Pitts Played 8 games in 2020, compare to Chase in 2019 played 14 games

W 51 - 35 @ Mississippi 8 170 21.3 4
W 38 - 24 South Carolina 4 57 14.3 2
L 38 - 41 @ Texas A&M 5 47 9.4 1
W 41 - 17 Missouri 5 81 16.2 0
W 44 - 28 Georgia 2 59 29.5 1
W 32 - 10 Kentucky 5 99 19.8 3
W 31 - 19 @ Tennessee 7 128 18.3 0
L 46 - 52 Alabama 7 129 18.4 1

 

[jterrell]

Kyle Pitts Played 8 games in 2020, compare to Chase in 2019 played 14 games

W 51 - 35 @ Mississippi 8 170 21.3 4
W 38 - 24 South Carolina 4 57 14.3 2
L 38 - 41 @ Texas A&M 5 47 9.4 1
W 41 - 17 Missouri 5 81 16.2 0
W 44 - 28 Georgia 2 59 29.5 1
W 32 - 10 Kentucky 5 99 19.8 3
W 31 - 19 @ Tennessee 7 128 18.3 0
L 46 - 52 Alabama 7 129 18.4 1

Now why? Because he had a concussion right? Not a great sign to miss 3 games w a concussion if we are taking safe picks

Also both players played 24 games in their college careers.
Kyle Pitts had 24 games 100 receptions, 1492 yards receiving, 14.9 yards per catch 18 TDs
Ja'Marr Chase had 24 games 107 receptions, 2093 yards, 19.6 YPC, 23 TDs.

So career-wise Chase is FAR better.
But last seasons it isn't even close.

Chase led the entire NCAA in yards receiving, yards per catch and TD catches in 2019.
Pitts has nothing like that with only 6th in the SEC in receiving yards, 5th in SEC in receiving yards per catch, 5th in SEC in TDs.

Pitts doesn't have any stellar performance stuff beyond very pretty plays he makes within games where he often disappeared.

These two guys were not comparable in actual college production.
Pitts went over 100 yards receiving 4 times in 24 games.
Chase went over 200 yards 3 times and over 100 9. He went 9 for 221 and 2 TDs in his final game versus Clemson in the Natty.

 

[JoeKing]

Now why? Because he had a concussion right? Not a great sign to miss 3 games w a concussion if we are taking safe picks

Also both players played 24 games in their college careers.
Kyle Pitts had 24 games 100 receptions, 1492 yards receiving, 14.9 yards per catch 18 TDs
Ja'Marr Chase had 24 games 107 receptions, 2093 yards, 19.6 YPC, 23 TDs.

So career-wise Chase is FAR better.
But last seasons it isn't even close.

Chase led the entire NCAA in yards receiving, yards per catch and TD catches in 2019.
Pitts has nothing like that with only 6th in the SEC in receiving yards, 5th in SEC in receiving yards per catch, 5th in SEC in TDs.

Pitts doesn't have any stellar performance stuff beyond very pretty plays he makes within games where he often disappeared.

These two guys were not comparable in actual college production.
Pitts went over 100 yards receiving 4 times in 24 games.
Chase went over 200 yards 3 times and over 100 9. He went 9 for 221 and 2 TDs in his final game versus Clemson in the Natty.

Conclusion: Chase>Pitts

 

[jterrell]

Conclusion: Chase>Pitts

As far as safe pick, absolutely!!

Next Gen Stats did a mock up and Chase had a 24% chance to be a Pro Bowler. Next highest WR was 11%.

Pitts is a unicorn. But unicorns don't always perform as well as expected. Outlying traits often come with outlying issues. I know I am a Mavs fan with KP.

A lot of the h-back types taker 3 years to hit stride. See Darren Waller or even Jarwin here.

I feel it is absolutely certain in 6 months I will on twitter and these forums and Dallas will win 34-28 with TDs by Lamb/Coop/Gallup/Zeke.
Same day Pitts will go 5 catches for 55 yards and 1 tremendous high point TD being shown on replay nonstop.
Cowboys fans will be screamin OMG we should have traded up and drafted Kyle Pitts... and this is why I drink.

 

[Brooksey]

Love Moerhig in a trade down

 

[Shake_Tiller]

As far as safe pick, absolutely!!

Next Gen Stats did a mock up and Chase had a 24% chance to be a Pro Bowler. Next highest WR was 11%.

Pitts is a unicorn. But unicorns don't always perform as well as expected. Outlying traits often come with outlying issues. I know I am a Mavs fan with KP.

A lot of the h-back types taker 3 years to hit stride. See Darren Waller or even Jarwin here.

I feel it is absolutely certain in 6 months I will on twitter and these forums and Dallas will win 34-28 with TDs by Lamb/Coop/Gallup/Zeke.
Same day Pitts will go 5 catches for 55 yards and 1 tremendous high point TD being shown on replay nonstop.
Cowboys fans will be screamin OMG we should have traded up and drafted Kyle Pitts... and this is why I drink.

Here is what I like about Pitts. He stress the defensive coordinator in making substitutions. Do you have base personnel on the field in 12 packages, or do you use nickel personnel, potentially against two in-line TEs? If Pitts blocks well enough, it is a tough call.

I also like his red zone potential. Can you end a few more drives with TDs rather than with FGs? That 4-point swing is huge in today's game.

Here is what bothers me. If he is just a very good TE -- not a transcendent weapon -- would you rather have him on the field than a WR like Gallup? Pitts is explosive for a TE, but he would not likely be a game-breaking WR.

Finally, will he block well enough to force the defense to substitute to account for him as an in-line TE? If not, they don't get punished for playing nickel packages.

 

[jterrell]

Here is what I like about Pitts. He stress the defensive coordinator in making substitutions. Do you have base personnel on the field in 12 packages, or do you use nickel personnel, potentially against two in-line TEs? If Pitts blocks well enough, it is a tough call.

I also like his red zone potential. Can you end a few more drives with TDs rather than with FGs? That 4-point swing is huge in today's game.

Here is what bothers me. If he is just a very good TE -- not a transcendent weapon -- would you rather have him on the field than a WR like Gallup? Pitts is explosive for a TE, but he would not likely be a game-breaking WR.

Finally, will he block well enough to force the defense to substitute to account for him as an in-line TE? If not, they don't get punished for playing nickel packages.

Yup. That's the deal.
If you start your offense based around him and he is your move player. Big Slot. He may well be All Pro.

If you try to mold him to your offense as an in-line guy 70% of the time? That might get ugly. Big dudes hitting him every play before he can get off the line. Already had one bad concussion.
Anyone really believe he can hang in there at 6'6" and 245 and block DLaw? He'd get rag dolled.
So that I worry about unless you are going to slow play it and build him over 3 seasons to be this uber TE he isn't really a TE day 1.
And can he handle/hold extra weight? Some dudes put it on easily and others can't gain a pound even if they live off pasta and protein shakes.

I mean if a scout is worried about DeVonta Smith at 166 pounds outside, why wouldn't the same scout worry about a 245 pound TE on a 6'6" frame? Same kinda issues.

I don't think he can pass block AT ALL. Just no weight to anchor down. Any bull rush at all can drive him easily.
He is definitely willing to run block. He'll put his body in the way and extend his arms but it's this seal type block that is more WR than TE.
I think he can block these 230 pound backers for sure. But can he block the 245-260 ones? Can he handle anyone on the line? I don't think so right now.

He's a Philly guy so I'm pretty shocked Philly dropped out of taking him. He would have been a great fit there as TE2 and the slot guy. Same in NYG. Let some other dude do the dirty work and go be beautiful in the end zone.