gollum
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Just toying around with possible scenarios for the remainder of free agency and the draft…tell me what you think.
Before the draft:
Sign Bryan Robinson(DE/DT, 6-4,296) from Miami if the price is reasonable for the 8 yr veteran minimum with incentives. Before the draft, we’d have the following defensive linemen on our roster according to dc.com:
Jason Ferguson(6-3,305), Leonardo Carson(6-2,292), DeVone Claybrooks(6-3, 310), Kenyon Coleman(6-5,284), Greg Ellis(6-6,271), LaRoi Glover(6-2, 282), Tron LaFavor(6-2,290), Eric Ogbogu(6-4, 269), Jermaine Brooks(6-3,290), and Willie Blade(6-3,332). That is at least a relatively deep group to toy with different defensive fronts if Bill so chooses.
Sign LB Scott Fujita(6-5,250) of the Chiefs to an offer sheet the Chiefs can’t meet since they are tight against the cap. That would require a 6th round compensation which we currently don’t have. Problem?...Let’s call ‘ol Al in Oakland…he’s got two early 6th rounders(#167 & #170)…trade for those 2 picks by offering our 5th(#139) and our 7th(#201). That is almost a straight up trade in terms of value, depending on which value chart you look at. Why would Mr. Davis do this? He and Jerry are buds, and it would weaken a division rival at the same time. We then compensate the Chiefs with #170(our original pick) and have a better, young(3 yrs experience) linebacker than we could hope to get in the fourth round of this year’s draft. That would bring our linebacking corp to: Ryan Fowler(6-3,243), Bradie James(6-2,245), Dat Nguyen(5-11,238), Keith O’Neil(6-0,235), Scott Shanle(6-2,237), and Al Singleton(6-2,236).
Sign either Idrees Bashir or another inexpensive free safety with ballhawking skills to allow Roy to come up to the box more often.
Sign a low cost veteran Fullback to compete with Darian Barnes as Richie Anderson may have to retire.
That should be enough to open up our options in free agency without costing the bank.
For the draft:
I don’t feel the top of this draft measures up nearly as well to those of recent years. I went back to 1997 before I found as weak a draft class as this one. I doubt there will be many trades like there was last year. But, as in any draft, the weaker teams have more holes and the stronger teams more defined needs. That’s where your most likely to have a trading partner. That, and when one team has an abundance of picks with which to move up. I don’t see us moving up, only down if at all.
I think most of us feel more inclined to keep #11 and trade #20 if the opportunity presents itself, so I will concentrate most trade speculation in this light.
As of right now, I only see two potential trades for #11. If QB Alex Smith of Utah were to fall(I say fall loosely since he by default is the 2nd QB), Kansas City or Green Bay might be willing to move up and snag him. Kansas City has Trent Green who will turn 35 before the start of the year and 33 y/o Todd Collins and undrafted Casey Clausen, could offer #15 & #46 for #11 and #103. This would give us an approximate gain in value of 158 points. Green Bay, who is in dire straits with the pending retirement of Brett Favre, could offer #24, #89, and next year’s first for #11. Depending on how you value future draft picks(I choose to take the value of a middle pick in the next lower round), this would give us an approximate gain in value of 82 points.
#20 hold many more possibilities, some of which I will list below. Whenever possible, I try to avoid using more than a three for one swap or future year’s choices due to the complexity and short tenure of Parcells and a desire to win now. The teams below have either abundant overall value in current picks or additional picks accumulated with which they may want to move up:
#20 to Green Bay for #24 & #89 = +40
#20 to Atlanta for #27, #90, & #151 = +2
#20 to San Diego for #28 & #61 = +104
#20 to Pittsburgh for #30 & #62 = +51
#20 to Philadelphia for #31, #77, & #94 = +72
#20 to San Francisco for #33, #65, & #96 = +96
#20 to Cleveland for #34, #67, & #97 = +69
#20 to Tampa Bay for #36, #71, #101, & #163 = +40
#20 to Tennessee for #37, #68, & #102 = +14
#20 to Chicago for #39 and next year’s first = +75
#20 to Detroit for #41 and next year’s first = +55
Now…here is how I would draft if we kept our current picks(excluding compensatory picks):
1-11 a) Shawne Merriman(OLB/DE)
b) Derrick Johnson(OLB)
c) Alex Baron(OT)
1-20 a) Marcus Spears(DE)
b) Dan Cody(DE/OLB)
c) David Pollack(DE)
2-42 a) Daryl Blackstock(OLB)
b) Channing Crowder(ILB)
c) Roddy White/Terrence Murphy(WR)
4-103 a) Eric Shelton(RB)
b) James Butler (FS)
c) T.A. McClendon(RB)
5-139 a) Jamaal Brimmer(SS)
b) Wesley Britt/Rob Petitti(OT)
c) David Greene(QB)
7-201 a) Gerald Sensabaugh(FS)
b) Richie Incognito(C)
c) Keith Joseph(FB)
Obviously, the each selection would affect subsequent selections as would any free agent acquisitions between now and the draft.
Personally, I would hope we could swing a trade with both KC for #11 back to #15(as above), and with Tampa back to #36. This would give us the following 9 draft choices:
1-15
2-36
2-42
2-46
3-71
4-101
5-139
6-163
7-201
I think somehow, Tampa will swing a deal for Edge with their 11 draft picks they currently have, so I doubt the 2nd trade will go through.
I think the key will be who Bill and Jerry value as far as edge rushers go between Erasmus James, Shawne Merriman, David Pollack, Dan Cody, Justin Tuck, DeMarcus Ware, Jovan Haye, and Chris Canty. That is the most important factor in their draft strategy this year. Once they figure that out, the linebackers will fall in place.
Before the draft:
Sign Bryan Robinson(DE/DT, 6-4,296) from Miami if the price is reasonable for the 8 yr veteran minimum with incentives. Before the draft, we’d have the following defensive linemen on our roster according to dc.com:
Jason Ferguson(6-3,305), Leonardo Carson(6-2,292), DeVone Claybrooks(6-3, 310), Kenyon Coleman(6-5,284), Greg Ellis(6-6,271), LaRoi Glover(6-2, 282), Tron LaFavor(6-2,290), Eric Ogbogu(6-4, 269), Jermaine Brooks(6-3,290), and Willie Blade(6-3,332). That is at least a relatively deep group to toy with different defensive fronts if Bill so chooses.
Sign LB Scott Fujita(6-5,250) of the Chiefs to an offer sheet the Chiefs can’t meet since they are tight against the cap. That would require a 6th round compensation which we currently don’t have. Problem?...Let’s call ‘ol Al in Oakland…he’s got two early 6th rounders(#167 & #170)…trade for those 2 picks by offering our 5th(#139) and our 7th(#201). That is almost a straight up trade in terms of value, depending on which value chart you look at. Why would Mr. Davis do this? He and Jerry are buds, and it would weaken a division rival at the same time. We then compensate the Chiefs with #170(our original pick) and have a better, young(3 yrs experience) linebacker than we could hope to get in the fourth round of this year’s draft. That would bring our linebacking corp to: Ryan Fowler(6-3,243), Bradie James(6-2,245), Dat Nguyen(5-11,238), Keith O’Neil(6-0,235), Scott Shanle(6-2,237), and Al Singleton(6-2,236).
Sign either Idrees Bashir or another inexpensive free safety with ballhawking skills to allow Roy to come up to the box more often.
Sign a low cost veteran Fullback to compete with Darian Barnes as Richie Anderson may have to retire.
That should be enough to open up our options in free agency without costing the bank.
For the draft:
I don’t feel the top of this draft measures up nearly as well to those of recent years. I went back to 1997 before I found as weak a draft class as this one. I doubt there will be many trades like there was last year. But, as in any draft, the weaker teams have more holes and the stronger teams more defined needs. That’s where your most likely to have a trading partner. That, and when one team has an abundance of picks with which to move up. I don’t see us moving up, only down if at all.
I think most of us feel more inclined to keep #11 and trade #20 if the opportunity presents itself, so I will concentrate most trade speculation in this light.
As of right now, I only see two potential trades for #11. If QB Alex Smith of Utah were to fall(I say fall loosely since he by default is the 2nd QB), Kansas City or Green Bay might be willing to move up and snag him. Kansas City has Trent Green who will turn 35 before the start of the year and 33 y/o Todd Collins and undrafted Casey Clausen, could offer #15 & #46 for #11 and #103. This would give us an approximate gain in value of 158 points. Green Bay, who is in dire straits with the pending retirement of Brett Favre, could offer #24, #89, and next year’s first for #11. Depending on how you value future draft picks(I choose to take the value of a middle pick in the next lower round), this would give us an approximate gain in value of 82 points.
#20 hold many more possibilities, some of which I will list below. Whenever possible, I try to avoid using more than a three for one swap or future year’s choices due to the complexity and short tenure of Parcells and a desire to win now. The teams below have either abundant overall value in current picks or additional picks accumulated with which they may want to move up:
#20 to Green Bay for #24 & #89 = +40
#20 to Atlanta for #27, #90, & #151 = +2
#20 to San Diego for #28 & #61 = +104
#20 to Pittsburgh for #30 & #62 = +51
#20 to Philadelphia for #31, #77, & #94 = +72
#20 to San Francisco for #33, #65, & #96 = +96
#20 to Cleveland for #34, #67, & #97 = +69
#20 to Tampa Bay for #36, #71, #101, & #163 = +40
#20 to Tennessee for #37, #68, & #102 = +14
#20 to Chicago for #39 and next year’s first = +75
#20 to Detroit for #41 and next year’s first = +55
Now…here is how I would draft if we kept our current picks(excluding compensatory picks):
1-11 a) Shawne Merriman(OLB/DE)
b) Derrick Johnson(OLB)
c) Alex Baron(OT)
1-20 a) Marcus Spears(DE)
b) Dan Cody(DE/OLB)
c) David Pollack(DE)
2-42 a) Daryl Blackstock(OLB)
b) Channing Crowder(ILB)
c) Roddy White/Terrence Murphy(WR)
4-103 a) Eric Shelton(RB)
b) James Butler (FS)
c) T.A. McClendon(RB)
5-139 a) Jamaal Brimmer(SS)
b) Wesley Britt/Rob Petitti(OT)
c) David Greene(QB)
7-201 a) Gerald Sensabaugh(FS)
b) Richie Incognito(C)
c) Keith Joseph(FB)
Obviously, the each selection would affect subsequent selections as would any free agent acquisitions between now and the draft.
Personally, I would hope we could swing a trade with both KC for #11 back to #15(as above), and with Tampa back to #36. This would give us the following 9 draft choices:
1-15
2-36
2-42
2-46
3-71
4-101
5-139
6-163
7-201
I think somehow, Tampa will swing a deal for Edge with their 11 draft picks they currently have, so I doubt the 2nd trade will go through.
I think the key will be who Bill and Jerry value as far as edge rushers go between Erasmus James, Shawne Merriman, David Pollack, Dan Cody, Justin Tuck, DeMarcus Ware, Jovan Haye, and Chris Canty. That is the most important factor in their draft strategy this year. Once they figure that out, the linebackers will fall in place.