New Low Pressure System

[SaltwaterServr]

This one's sitting out in the Caribbean. Hermine went from a low-pressure system of a few clouds to a TS in around 40 hours. The GOM is HOT right now and anything that can shoot the gap between the Yucatan and Cuba is going to hit the perfect incubator for a major hurricane.

Had Hermine had another 12-18 hours out over the GOM, she would have come ashore as a Cat 1 or weak Cat 2. It blew up so fast that I didn't check HardCoreWeather.com for a day and when I did it was because I saw the tracks on the Weather Channel. Amazing how fast she developed.

This from the third floor of the LBJ Student Center of the campus formerly known as SWTSU, now Texas State. I tried a few shots, but couldn't get the lightening that was flying through it. Needless to say we got a bit of wind and rain when it passed overhead.

Anyway, here's the next probable storm. I'll worry about Igor when he crosses into the Gulf Stream.

 

[CowboyMcCoy]

Ruh Ro.

 

[SaltwaterServr]

From the time I posted until now, the percentage of probability of formation within the next 48 hours dropped from 40% to 30%.

I've been pretty good at shielding storms from forming this season.

 

[Phoenix]

From the time I posted until now, the percentage of probability of formation within the next 48 hours dropped from 40% to 30%.

I've been pretty good at shielding storms from forming this season.

Keep up the good work

 

[theogt]

From the time I posted until now, the percentage of probability of formation within the next 48 hours dropped from 40% to 30%.

I've been pretty good at shielding storms from forming this season.

Ha! Maybe we could create a mega-hurricane thread.

 

[SaltwaterServr]

Spaghetti models of what will become Julia in the next 24-48 hours, and Igor to the east. There are 3, count em 3, more low pressure systems working westward across Africa. There exists a small probability that South America could get hit with a hurricane or tropical storm. It's worth watching, to me at least.

http://i508.***BLOCKED***/albums/s330/HCW2008/ce24b839.gif

The three lows are pretty evident, but the actual image will change as it is updated. All three of these should hit the Atlantic over the next 7 days.

 

[SaltwaterServr]

Those three lows I mentioned coming off of Africa? One hit 90% probability the afternoon it hit open water.

 

[theogt]

Screw the War on Terror. We must take out Africa for shooting spit balls at us.

 

[SaltwaterServr]

Screw the War on Terror. We must take out Africa for shooting spit balls at us.

Too far west. Most of these come across Africa from the Indian Ocean riding the monsoon winds. I think.

 

[SaltwaterServr]

Karl should be named sometime this afternoon. Julia went from invest 93L to hurricane in about 40 hours.

 

[Phoenix]

Saw a report that Igor has become massive in size...so large that the ISS astronauts apparently nicknamed her "Igor the Terrible"...

 

[SaltwaterServr]

Saw a report that Igor has become massive in size...so large that the ISS astronauts apparently nicknamed her "Igor the Terrible"...

He's about the size of Ike at his peak, 2/3rds the size of the Gulf of Mexico. Maybe a little bigger from the satellite photos I was looking at earlier. Lord help us all if he rolls over Florida and hits the boiling temp waters of the Gulf.

 

[DallasCowpoke]

Has there been a confirmed, legit hurricane-force eyewall make US landfall in the past 3-4 years?

Seems we're due somewhere.

 

[SaltwaterServr]

Has there been a confirmed, legit hurricane-force eyewall make US landfall in the past 3-4 years?

Seems we're due somewhere.

Off the top of my head, we didn't have any in '06 or last year.

2007 we had Dolly.

2008, Gustav, Kyle maybe hit the extreme tip of Maine, one more whose name escapes me, and then big bad Ike came to Texas.

 

[SaltwaterServr]

Three hurricanes all in the same photo at the same time. In 2005 we "officially" missed having 3 hurricanes at the same time by 6 hours as Gustav was downgraded.

This has happened 8 times since 1851. 6 hours from having it happen 9 times, and twice in 5 years.

Next up is what folks expect to be Lisa walking off the western edge of Africa.

Beware of hurricanes named after women and ending in the letter "A".

Katrina
Alicia
Rita

That's Mother Nature's trifecta of hate and discontent.