Observation of draft tendencies

[Eskimo]

Starting with the 1992 draft (last 15 drafts) we have only drafted one offensive player and he ended up being a bust (Lafleur). Now in the years leading up to that we we put together a solid core on offense with Irvin (1988), Aikman (1989), Moose (1989), Emmitt (1990), Novacek (FA) and OL (low round picks, FA) meaning there wasn't much need there for several of those years.

Now that the major weaknesses of this team appear to be on the offensive side of the ball - OL, future WR, future QB - I wonder if we finally switch tendencies next year or keep investing in the D?

 

[JackMagist]

Good Question.

I think it reaches a point where we will have to go Offense. But it is no secret that BP loves Defense and believes that Defense wins games. So I would not be surprised to see us continue to draft Defense as long as he is here.

 

[stealth]

if the opponent cant score on us then I am pretty sure we win anyways so I don't really care about offense so much anymore.

though the aikman irvin smith novacek and moose days were very fun to watch ultimately all I want is to see the boys win the super bowl three more times before I die. Don't care how they do it.
I am only 27 so they should have plenty of time.

 

[Eskimo]

if the opponent cant score on us then I am pretty sure we win anyways so I don't really care about offense so much anymore.

though the aikman irvin smith novacek and moose days were very fun to watch ultimately all I want is to see the boys win the super bowl three more times before I die. Don't care how they do it.
I am only 27 so they should have plenty of time.

At some point there begins to become a law of diminishing returns - you replace one good player with one very good player.

While this year's offense looks potent so long as everyone remains healthy, we have serious issues with age or poor performance at several slots:

Look at the starters:

Drew Bledsoe - old
Terry Glenn - old and fragile
TO - old and fragile
Rivera - old and fragile and declining
Fabini - old and declining
Adams - not young and coming off injury
Al Johnson - has been a marginal starter
Kosier - still unproven, started in Detroit due to injury


Now look at the backups

Henson and Romo - big question marks
Crayton - top potential is probably #3 WR
Gurode - inconsistent
Columbo - hasn't played in 3 years
Pettiti - owned as a rookie
Peterman - unable to get on the field

It is hard to imagine that this unit couldn't be drastically upgraded with some high draft picks. The only position on the offense that really isn't a need at this point is TE.

 

[cowboys#1]

we have to look to the future

 

[lostinomiya]

At some point there begins to become a law of diminishing returns - you replace one good player with one very good player.

While this year's offense looks potent so long as everyone remains healthy, we have serious issues with age or poor performance at several slots:

Look at the starters:

Drew Bledsoe - old
Terry Glenn - old and fragile
TO - old and fragile
Rivera - old and fragile and declining
Fabini - old and declining
Adams - not young and coming off injury
Al Johnson - has been a marginal starter
Kosier - still unproven, started in Detroit due to injury


Now look at the backups

Henson and Romo - big question marks
Crayton - top potential is probably #3 WR
Gurode - inconsistent
Columbo - hasn't played in 3 years
Pettiti - owned as a rookie
Peterman - unable to get on the field

It is hard to imagine that this unit couldn't be drastically upgraded with some high draft picks. The only position on the offense that really isn't a need at this point is TE.

this is scary to me. is it generally true thaat the best draft value comes in defense and that drafting late round offensive picks and developing them is just about as good as drafting high offensive picks? that is what i seemed to be hearing alot before the draft.

 

[Hiero]

i think next year, we address the offense more. our defense is really set, with some good drafts by parcells as opposed to the crappy ones from the past 15 years.

 

[burmafrd]

No arguement that we need to start drafting for the future on Offense. But we have a couple of years to do it- and the sad fact was that this year was not a good year for OFFENSE early in the draft- unless you are talking top 10 or so. I think the O line is being addressed- we really only have one old starter and that is Rivera. Fabini and Adams have a few more years before they will be a concern. Remember that outside of QB, players last longer on the o line then just about anywhere else. Now as regards WR we have one young good one it looks in Crayton, and have another potential in Green, Next year would be a good one to pick up some more since unlike this year there will be quite a few good ones. QB: well that has been discussed ad nauseum for a long time now. Over the last 5 years a bunch of QB's have been drafted high and how many are stars now? Carson Palmer and Roths. Leftwich - still has to prove himself a top tier QB. Outside of that they are either busts or not done anything yet. we probably got as good a shot trying romo and Henson as we would have going for one of them- and we would have had to have given up on getting Newman, Ware or Roy to have gotten a QB. And who is to say that we would have gotten one that panned out?

 

[CalCBFan]

burmafrd, theere's a kid in NY, named Manning I think, that looks as if he may have some potential...

 

[Bach]

Look at the starters:

Drew Bledsoe - old
Terry Glenn - old and fragile
TO - old and fragile
Rivera - old and fragile and declining
Fabini - old and declining
Adams - not young and coming off injury
Al Johnson - has been a marginal starter
Kosier - still unproven, started in Detroit due to injury

No doubt I think next offseason we'll address the offense. OL, WR and QB will be big needs.

Regardless of how Bledsoe plays this season, he's not getting any younger, and I'm about certain his replacement isn't Romo or Henson.

I think we can address the OL and WR in FA and day one of the draft. We should be able to get better and younger at some spots on the OL and find a replacement for Glenn.

The tough job will be QB. Even if Bledsoe comes back in '07, we need to get his replacement on board soon. Our window with Bledsoe, if you can even call it that, is narrow -- 1-2 years. So I hope we either look for a QB early in next years draft or sign a fairly young FA. The problem is that its easier said than done. But in order for us to become, or remain, contenders for years to come, we'll need to find our answer at this position.

 

[mschmidt64]

I wouldn't worry about it even a bit.

In Jeff Ireland's two drafts here we have selected

1 Ware
1 Carpenter
1 Spears
2 Burnett
2 Fasano
3 Hatcher
4 Barber
4 Green
4 Canty
5 Watkins
6 Beriault
6 Stanley
6 Petitti
7 Ratliff
7 McQuistan
7 Whitley

Even if I ASSUME a guy like Burnett is a bust, you are staring at about 13 hits out of 16 picks.

That is amazing, particularly getting what appears to be at least 8 keepers on day 2 in two drafts. And that is considering we just had one draft picking near the bottom, where it is harder to find players. And it is not including potential UDFA's that we may hit on like Miles Austin, Dennis Roland, and Demetrus Summers.

We'll turn our attention to offense next year, I'm sure. That's not to say we won't take any defensive players, but the ratio will balance out.

Can you imagine hitting next year on 2-3 OLs, a WR, maybe a future QB?

We'll be an unstoppable force for a decade.

 

[jterrell]

I wouldn't worry about it even a bit.

In Jeff Ireland's two drafts here we have selected

1 Ware
1 Carpenter
1 Spears
2 Burnett
2 Fasano
3 Hatcher
4 Barber
4 Green
4 Canty
5 Watkins
6 Beriault
6 Stanley
6 Petitti
7 Ratliff
7 McQuistan
7 Whitley

Even if I ASSUME a guy like Burnett is a bust, you are staring at about 13 hits out of 16 picks.

That is amazing, particularly getting what appears to be at least 8 keepers on day 2 in two drafts. And that is considering we just had one draft picking near the bottom, where it is harder to find players. And it is not including potential UDFA's that we may hit on like Miles Austin, Dennis Roland, and Demetrus Summers.

We'll turn our attention to offense next year, I'm sure. That's not to say we won't take any defensive players, but the ratio will balance out.

Can you imagine hitting next year on 2-3 OLs, a WR, maybe a future QB?

We'll be an unstoppable force for a decade.

Jeff Ireland replacing Larry Lacewell is a bigger upgrade than Bill Parcells replacing Dave Campo.

 

[Eskimo]

I wouldn't worry about it even a bit.

In Jeff Ireland's two drafts here we have selected

1 Ware
1 Carpenter
1 Spears
2 Burnett
2 Fasano
3 Hatcher
4 Barber
4 Green
4 Canty
5 Watkins
6 Beriault
6 Stanley
6 Petitti
7 Ratliff
7 McQuistan
7 Whitley

Even if I ASSUME a guy like Burnett is a bust, you are staring at about 13 hits out of 16 picks.

That is amazing, particularly getting what appears to be at least 8 keepers on day 2 in two drafts. And that is considering we just had one draft picking near the bottom, where it is harder to find players. And it is not including potential UDFA's that we may hit on like Miles Austin, Dennis Roland, and Demetrus Summers.

We'll turn our attention to offense next year, I'm sure. That's not to say we won't take any defensive players, but the ratio will balance out.

Can you imagine hitting next year on 2-3 OLs, a WR, maybe a future QB?

We'll be an unstoppable force for a decade.

I'd only like to make one small point here. It is way too early to discuss the strength of the 2006 draft. Most "draft experts" have labelled it an average draft. We'll know a lot more about it after the season.

The 2005 draft looks to be excellent but with a predominant impact on the defensive side of the ball (Ware, Spears, Canty, Ratliff, ?Burnett, ?Beriault). Barber looks like a good backup RB and perhaps Pettiti will emerge as a capable backup or better (yes, I know he started last year).

 

[CrazyCowboy]

I believe with Jeff Ireland, we will take the best player on our board.

 

[Eskimo]

I believe with Jeff Ireland, we will take the best player on our board.

I think that strategy is fine so long as we then start to trade our spare defenders for upgraded draft picks or offensive players instead of our usual habit of releasing players who then sign $5M/yr deals elsewhere.

 

[mschmidt64]

I'd only like to make one small point here. It is way too early to discuss the strength of the 2006 draft. Most "draft experts" have labelled it an average draft. We'll know a lot more about it after the season.

Most of those experts labeled it an "average," draft because they believe we should have reached for crappy players who don't fit our OL scheme because THEY perceived a need there.

But smart drafters don't reach for need.

We got value at pretty much every selection. Yes, a guy here or there may not pan out, but let's face it.... we knew guys like Tony Dixon or Dwayne Goodrich were reaches and bad picks immediately. And we knew last year guys like Barber and Canty were gonna be hits.

You can see value when you get it.

Carpenter, Fasano, Green, Watkins, and Stanley were all great value picks, no doubt about it. And I'm betting Hatcher is a keeper as well.

Ireland's track record after two drafts is gonna be pretty stellar I'm betting. And that bodes well for the future too.

 

[big dog cowboy]

While this year's offense looks potent so long as everyone remains healthy, we have serious issues with age or poor performance at several slots:

Still would have won at least 11 games last year with all the issues we had if we only had a decent K.

 

[baj1dallas]

You can't develop guys 3 and 4 years behind starters like you could pre cap.

 

[Longboysfan]

Jeff Ireland replacing Larry Lacewell is a bigger upgrade than Bill Parcells replacing Dave Campo.

Amen!!!!!

 

[silver]

The same analysis says we take offensive players in the second round:

92: Jimmy Smith
93: Kevin Williams
94: Larry Allen
95: Sherman Williams, Shane Hanna, Kendall Watkins
98: Flozel Adams
99: Solomon Page
01: Quincy Carter
02: Andre Gurode, Antonio Bryant
03: Al Johnson
04: Julius Jones, Jacob Rogers
06: Anthony Fasano