Opinions on this trade down scenario

[Flamma]

It's a wash by the traditional value chart. The more sophisticated charts think the Jets win that substantially. Of course, it depends on the details of the particular draft: if we think the player we're targeting at 35 is as good as (or the same guy as) what we'd take at 24, then it could be great. But you are giving up the 5th-year option on that first pick.

Sure it depends on the draft. I don't think the talent drop is as wide from 24 to the early second, as compared to the late 2nd.

As far as the 5th year option goes, yeah you'd be giving that up, but the new CBA has them cost more now under certain circumstances. Besides, being picked in the first round costs a lot more than the 2nd in general.

 

[Cowboyny]

These players are all available at #24 and all other obvious 1st round types have already been drafted.

• WR4 …......... Chris Olave
• EDGE5 …......... George Karlaftis
• OC1 …......... Tyler Linderbaum
• WR5 …......... Treylon Burks
• OG1 …......... Zion Johnson
• DT1 …......... Devonte Wyatt
• OG2 …......... Kenyon Green
• LB2 …......... Nakobe Dean

Scenario #1:
- There is an option to trade down to #31 and receive a mid-3rd round pick.
- Only 1 of these players will be available at #31.

Scenario #2:
- There is an option to trade down to #32 and receive a late 2nd round pick.
- All of these players will be drafted before #32.

Note: These players are all available at #32:

• Andrew Booth
• Arnold Ebiketie
• Kenny Pickett
• Quay Walker
• Malik Willis
• Lewis Cine
• Travis Jones
• Kenneth Walker
• Bernhard Raimann
• Logan Hall
• Jalen Pitre
• Skyy Moore
• Desmond Ridder
• Breece Hall
• Jaquan Brisker
• David Ojabo
• Chad Muma
• Kaiir Elam
• Christian Harris
• George Pickens
• Boye Mafe
• Cam Jurgens
• Tyler Smith

I was messing with the trade chart this afternoon, noticed that Detroit has the last pick in rd 1 at 32 and 34 (2nd pick of rd 2). If the Cowboys gave up 24/56/129/155 it matches. They could get their OL and Travis Jones. When I did a simulation, both Green & Zion were still on the board at 32, tempting to take both in that scenario. Everything I am hearing is Tyler Smith is a lock 1st rd selection, if we want him, we got to take him at 24.

 

[xwalker]

Anyone would go with #2 because it's WAY out of the question in our favor draft chart-wise. And we only drop down one slot to gain a 2nd vs 3rd...lol.

The point of the question is to see if people would be OK losing all of the listed players in order to take a favorable trade.

That option was intentionally a trade that heavily favored the Cowboys.

 

[xwalker]

I’ll trade scenario 2 and take Davis at 32

These players are all available at #24 and all other obvious 1st round types have already been drafted.

• WR4 …......... Chris Olave
• EDGE5 …......... George Karlaftis
• OC1 …......... Tyler Linderbaum
• WR5 …......... Treylon Burks
• OG1 …......... Zion Johnson
• DT1 …......... Devonte Wyatt
• OG2 …......... Kenyon Green
• LB2 …......... Nakobe Dean

Jordan Davis is in the 'obvious 1st round types have already been drafted' category.

 

[reddyuta]

imo trade down is too much work for the Jones Boys,they wont do it unless they get a ridiculous offer.

 

[xwalker]

Which is the 1 player available at 31 in the first scenario?

The point is that you don't know which player.

The point of the two scenarios is to see if the guarantee of getting 1 player from the list is enough to take the mid-3rd over the late 2nd in the trade.

 

[baltcowboy]

These players are all available at #24 and all other obvious 1st round types have already been drafted.

• WR4 …......... Chris Olave
• EDGE5 …......... George Karlaftis
• OC1 …......... Tyler Linderbaum
• WR5 …......... Treylon Burks
• OG1 …......... Zion Johnson
• DT1 …......... Devonte Wyatt
• OG2 …......... Kenyon Green
• LB2 …......... Nakobe Dean

Scenario #1:
- There is an option to trade down to #31 and receive a mid-3rd round pick.
- Only 1 of these players will be available at #31.

Scenario #2:
- There is an option to trade down to #32 and receive a late 2nd round pick.
- All of these players will be drafted before #32.

Note: These players are all available at #32:

• Andrew Booth
• Arnold Ebiketie
• Kenny Pickett
• Quay Walker
• Malik Willis
• Lewis Cine
• Travis Jones
• Kenneth Walker
• Bernhard Raimann
• Logan Hall
• Jalen Pitre
• Skyy Moore
• Desmond Ridder
• Breece Hall
• Jaquan Brisker
• David Ojabo
• Chad Muma
• Kaiir Elam
• Christian Harris
• George Pickens
• Boye Mafe
• Cam Jurgens
• Tyler Smith

X Walker, I loved your breakdown of Tyler Smith and how he compares to Zion and Green. I get the impression that all three players are pretty much even but Smith has the better upside of the three but the lowest floor. What is your opinion of Raimann?

 

[xwalker]

X Walker, I loved your breakdown of Tyler Smith and how he compares to Zion and Green. I get the impression that all three players are pretty much even but Smith has the better upside of the three but the lowest floor. What is your opinion of Raimann?

Raimann is OK, but...
- Short arms for LT.
- Good athleticism but not remotely in the range of Tyron Smith athleticism.
- Not overly powerful (i.e. Not at great option at RT or OG).

Connor Williams was a better prospect.

Where would Raimann play if he can't handle the NFL LT position?

I'm OK with an overage prospect if it means that player is more ready now than others; however,...
- Raimann will be 25 and is still a developmental player.