Pick the over or under for rookie players

[DanA]

Pick the over or under

• Mazi Smith - 400.5 snaps
• Luke Schoonmaker - 350.5 yards
• Demarvion Overshown: 3.5 starts
• Villiami Fehoko - 5.25 tackles for loss
• Asim Richards - 2.5 starts
• Eric Scott - 50.5 snaps (defense only)
• Deuce Vaughn- 0.5 TD’s
• Jalen Brooks - dressing 5.5 games
• Hunter Luepke - 4.5 weeks on the 53 man roster

 

[MWH1967]

• Mazi Smith - 400.5 snaps (Over)
• Luke Schoonmaker - 350.5 yards (Over)
• Demarvion Overshown: 3.5 starts ( Depends on health under)
• Villiami Fehoko - 5.25 tackles for loss (Under)
• Asim Richards - 2.5 starts (Under)
• Eric Scott - 50.5 snaps (defense only) (Under)
• Deuce Vaughn- 0.5 TD’s (Over)
• Jalen Brooks - dressing 5.5 games (Under)
• Hunter Luepke - 4.5 weeks on the 53 man roster ( Way Over)

 

[big dog cowboy]

• Mazi Smith - 400.5 snaps OVER
• Luke Schoonmaker - 350.5 yards OVER
• Demarvion Overshown: 3.5 starts OVER
• Villiami Fehoko - 5.25 tackles for loss OVER
• Asim Richards - 2.5 starts UNDER
• Eric Scott - 50.5 snaps (defense only) UNDER
• Deuce Vaughn- 0.5 TD’s WAY OVER
• Jalen Brooks - dressing 5.5 games UNDER
• Hunter Luepke - 4.5 weeks on the 53 man roster OVER

 

[DanA]

• Mazi Smith - 400.5 snaps (Over)
• Luke Schoonmaker - 350.5 yards (Over)
• Demarvion Overshown: 3.5 starts ( Depends on health under)
• Villiami Fehoko - 5.25 tackles for loss (Under)
• Asim Richards - 2.5 starts (Under)
• Eric Scott - 50.5 snaps (defense only) (Under)
• Deuce Vaughn- 0.5 TD’s (Over)
• Jalen Brooks - dressing 5.5 games (Under)
• Hunter Luepke - 4.5 weeks on the 53 man roster ( Way Over)

4 overs and 5 unders so I’m happy I got the balance okay. I think the Luepke one is toughest as he could very easily be all games or none.

 

[DanA]

• Mazi Smith - 400.5 snaps OVER
• Luke Schoonmaker - 350.5 yards OVER
• Demarvion Overshown: 3.5 starts OVER
• Villiami Fehoko - 5.25 tackles for loss OVER
• Asim Richards - 2.5 starts UNDER
• Eric Scott - 50.5 snaps (defense only) UNDER
• Deuce Vaughn- 0.5 TD’s WAY OVER
• Jalen Brooks - dressing 5.5 games UNDER
• Hunter Luepke - 4.5 weeks on the 53 man roster OVER

I think Deuce being way over is interesting. Pollard his first season had around 450 yards and 2 TD’s and I’d have considered him a success.

I also think maybe I went short on Overshown because he’s probably LB #3 who starts if either Clarke or LVE get injured.

 

[Bobhaze]

• Mazi Smith - 400.5 snaps OVER
• Luke Schoonmaker - 350.5 yards OVER (this will be close- it’s hard for rookie TEs to adjust)
• Demarvion Overshown: 3.5 starts UNDER (I think he’s a year away from any starts)
• Villiami Fehoko - 5.25 tackles for loss UNDER
• Asim Richards - 2.5 starts UNDER (if Richards has any starts, it means an important OLineman is hurt)
• Eric Scott - 50.5 snaps (defense only) UNDER
• Deuce Vaughn- 0.5 TD’s OVER (I think Deuce will score at least 3-5 TDs)
• Jalen Brooks - dressing 5.5 games UNDER
• Hunter Luepke - 4.5 weeks on the 53 man roster NO IDEA- (he’s an all or nothing player. If he makes the team, he will stay on the roster most of the season. But he’s a wild card mystery IMO)

 

[McKDaddy]

Luke Schoonmaker - 350.5 yards

This would be pretty low return on a second round pick wouldn't it?

I know you can't quantify blocking contributions but goodness this is only 20 yards per game receiving. Folks are acting like Leupke & Deuce are going to blow by rookie expectations. Why not your #58?

 

[Carson]

Pick the over or under

• Mazi Smith - 400.5 snaps OVER
• Luke Schoonmaker - 350.5 yards OVER
• Demarvion Overshown: 3.5 starts OVER
• Villiami Fehoko - 5.25 tackles for loss UNDER
• Asim Richards - 2.5 starts UNDER
• Eric Scott - 50.5 snaps (defense only) UNDER
• Deuce Vaughn- 0.5 TD’s OVER
• Jalen Brooks - dressing 5.5 games UNDER
• Hunter Luepke - 4.5 weeks on the 53 man roster UNDER

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

This would be pretty low return on a second round pick wouldn't it?

I know you can't quantify blocking contributions but goodness this is only 20 yards per game receiving. Folks are acting like Leupke & Deuce are going to blow by rookie expectations. Why not your #58?

It’s not just what’s expected of him, but there’s probability that has to factor in too. There is a plausible scenario where you go into training camp and Hendershot has clearly developed into the best TE on the roster. In that scenario, having year 1 be a learning year for Schoonmaker isn’t out of the question. Or alternate situations with Ferguson and Hendershot both playing wel out of the gate: last year the position only had 850 yards. Let’s say this year balloons to 1300. Even with that, it’s not unreasonable for Schoonmaker to be only ~300 of that.

Conversely, with Pollard’s injury situation, who are the guys who are going to outshine Vaughn in training camp? Do you plan on giving Ronald Jones 30 carries a game if TP isn’t ready to go? The rookie backfield will get opportunities out of necessity. There is no necessity to get Schoonmaker on the field if he’s not flashing in TC.

 

[McKDaddy]

It’s not just what’s expected of him, but there’s probability that has to factor in too. There is a plausible scenario where you go into training camp and Hendershot has clearly developed into the best TE on the roster. In that scenario, having year 1 be a learning year for Schoonmaker isn’t out of the question. Or alternate situations with Ferguson and Hendershot both playing wel out of the gate: last year the position only had 850 yards. Let’s say this year balloons to 1300. Even with that, it’s not unreasonable for Schoonmaker to be only ~300 of that.

Conversely, with Pollard’s injury situation, who are the guys who are going to outshine Vaughn in training camp? Do you plan on giving Ronald Jones 30 carries a game if TP isn’t ready to go? The rookie backfield will get opportunities out of necessity. There is no necessity to get Schoonmaker on the field if he’s not flashing in TC.

Dallas's history of putting players on the field based on draft pedigree over "earned" playing time is one reason I think Schoon will get opportunities to rather easily eclipse that mark. Maybe I'm wrong but that just feels low to me.

Davis is more likely to be the #2 than Jones in my opinion. I really don't see Jones making the roster. If TP & the #2 are healthy, I don't know that game day roster is going to allow you to carry both Vaughn & Leupke. If that happens, the only real path to racking up numbers is to break off big plays when you are in the game. Otherwise, they will need players ahead of them to miss time. Dallas doesn't do a great job of getting starters out when the game is decided so that also limits their opportunities.

 

[Point-of-the-Star]

• Mazi Smith - 400.5 snaps - OVER - Way over if he's healthy and has stamina. I think we'll all be surprised in how DQ uses him.

• Luke Schoonmaker - 350.5 yards - UNDER - He'll play more toward the end of the season and this will be close. He was drafted for his size and blocking but I think once tendencies are set he'll sneak out on pass plays on seam routes and for EZ/goal line situations.

• Demarvion Overshown: 3.5 starts - UNDER - Obviously I think this depends on how fast he comes along. I don't think he'll get "starts" but comes in as a situational player on passing downs and goal line specifically to take the QB on RPO situations (Jalen Hurts). He is a disrupter and DQ likes that!

• Villiami Fehoko - 5.25 tackles for loss - SPOT ON - I like how he plays with violence. Cowboys like that too. He could be another Osa Odighizuwa. Needs some weight for a 3 tech. I don't see him too much at DE .

• Asim Richards - 2.5 starts - UNDER - Please no. I like his style, he's rough and a fighter but he's not ready to face NFL DL's yet. Josh Ball anyone?

• Eric Scott - 50.5 snaps (defense only) - UNDER - PS / developmental player. DB are set with depth there. I think he was picked with an eye toward 2024.

• Deuce Vaughn- 0.5 TD’s - OVER - Way over. If you'd have put "5.0" instead of "0.5" I'd still have voted over. I think this young man is a football player and I don't care if he's a midget.

• Jalen Brooks - dressing 5.5 games - UNDER - Unless by some miracle he is so impressive that we're all surprised. I don't think we'll all be so surprised. PS all year for this guy!

• Hunter Luepke - 4.5 weeks on the 53 man roster - OVER - This is a guess. He could be this draft's Ryan Switzer. But I think he'll be here because he can also be that 4th TE, he has that versatility the Cowboys like.

 

[DanA]

Dallas's history of putting players on the field based on draft pedigree over "earned" playing time is one reason I think Schoon will get opportunities to rather easily eclipse that mark. Maybe I'm wrong but that just feels low to me.

Davis is more likely to be the #2 than Jones in my opinion. I really don't see Jones making the roster. If TP & the #2 are healthy, I don't know that game day roster is going to allow you to carry both Vaughn & Leupke. If that happens, the only real path to racking up numbers is to break off big plays when you are in the game. Otherwise, they will need players ahead of them to miss time. Dallas doesn't do a great job of getting starters out when the game is decided so that also limits their opportunities.

If anything it’s optimistic on recent history. Pitts and Evan Ingram are the only two with over 600 yards in the last decade. Maybe one or two TE’s taken per year will eclipse 350 rookie yards.

 

[DanA]

• Mazi Smith - 400.5 snaps - OVER - Way over if he's healthy and has stamina. I think we'll all be surprised in how DQ uses him.

• Luke Schoonmaker - 350.5 yards - UNDER - He'll play more toward the end of the season and this will be close. He was drafted for his size and blocking but I think once tendencies are set he'll sneak out on pass plays on seam routes and for EZ/goal line situations.

• Demarvion Overshown: 3.5 starts - UNDER - Obviously I think this depends on how fast he comes along. I don't think he'll get "starts" but comes in as a situational player on passing downs and goal line specifically to take the QB on RPO situations (Jalen Hurts). He is a disrupter and DQ likes that!

• Villiami Fehoko - 5.25 tackles for loss - SPOT ON - I like how he plays with violence. Cowboys like that too. He could be another Osa Odighizuwa. Needs some weight for a 3 tech. I don't see him too much at DE .

• Asim Richards - 2.5 starts - UNDER - Please no. I like his style, he's rough and a fighter but he's not ready to face NFL DL's yet. Josh Ball anyone?

• Eric Scott - 50.5 snaps (defense only) - UNDER - PS / developmental player. DB are set with depth there. I think he was picked with an eye toward 2024.

• Deuce Vaughn- 0.5 TD’s - OVER - Way over. If you'd have put "5.0" instead of "0.5" I'd still have voted over. I think this young man is a football player and I don't care if he's a midget.

• Jalen Brooks - dressing 5.5 games - UNDER - Unless by some miracle he is so impressive that we're all surprised. I don't think we'll all be so surprised. PS all year for this guy!

• Hunter Luepke - 4.5 weeks on the 53 man roster - OVER - This is a guess. He could be this draft's Ryan Switzer. But I think he'll be here because he can also be that 4th TE, he has that versatility the Cowboys like.

I choose 400.5 for Mazi because it’s a stretch as a pure 1-tech. He’s need to show pass rush to get more IMO (I think he can)

 

[CowboyRoy]

Pick the over or under

• Mazi Smith - 400.5 snaps OVER
• Luke Schoonmaker - 350.5 yards OVER

• Demarvion Overshown: 3.5 starts UNDER
• Villiami Fehoko - 5.25 tackles for loss UNDER
• Asim Richards - 2.5 starts UNDER
• Eric Scott - 50.5 snaps (defense only) UNDER
• Deuce Vaughn- 0.5 TD’s OVER
• Jalen Brooks - dressing 5.5 games UNDER
• Hunter Luepke - 4.5 weeks on the 53 man roster OVER

 

[CowboyRoy]

• Mazi Smith - 400.5 snaps - OVER - Way over if he's healthy and has stamina. I think we'll all be surprised in how DQ uses him.

• Luke Schoonmaker - 350.5 yards - UNDER - He'll play more toward the end of the season and this will be close. He was drafted for his size and blocking but I think once tendencies are set he'll sneak out on pass plays on seam routes and for EZ/goal line situations.

• Demarvion Overshown: 3.5 starts - UNDER - Obviously I think this depends on how fast he comes along. I don't think he'll get "starts" but comes in as a situational player on passing downs and goal line specifically to take the QB on RPO situations (Jalen Hurts). He is a disrupter and DQ likes that!

• Villiami Fehoko - 5.25 tackles for loss - SPOT ON - I like how he plays with violence. Cowboys like that too. He could be another Osa Odighizuwa. Needs some weight for a 3 tech. I don't see him too much at DE .

• Asim Richards - 2.5 starts - UNDER - Please no. I like his style, he's rough and a fighter but he's not ready to face NFL DL's yet. Josh Ball anyone?

• Eric Scott - 50.5 snaps (defense only) - UNDER - PS / developmental player. DB are set with depth there. I think he was picked with an eye toward 2024.

• Deuce Vaughn- 0.5 TD’s - OVER - Way over. If you'd have put "5.0" instead of "0.5" I'd still have voted over. I think this young man is a football player and I don't care if he's a midget.

• Jalen Brooks - dressing 5.5 games - UNDER - Unless by some miracle he is so impressive that we're all surprised. I don't think we'll all be so surprised. PS all year for this guy!

• Hunter Luepke - 4.5 weeks on the 53 man roster - OVER - This is a guess. He could be this draft's Ryan Switzer. But I think he'll be here because he can also be that 4th TE, he has that versatility the Cowboys like.

Schoon will be the #1 TE on unless he gets injured. Lots of 2 TE sets anyway.

 

[McKDaddy]

If anything it’s optimistic on recent history. Pitts and Evan Ingram are the only two with over 600 yards in the last decade. Maybe one or two TE’s taken per year will eclipse 350 rookie yards.

I tried to upload image from this link but failed. https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/rookie-tight-end-receiving-stats-in-the-nfl-2022

In 2022 there were 4 rookie tight ends that eclipsed 350. Another eclipsed 300. With Okonkwo leading the parade at 450. All were drafted later than Schoon. So, I know every situation is different regarding opportunities but I'll be pretty disappointed if he doesn't eclipse 350 unless he is just so fantastic a blocker that we don't even need to pass.

 

[Techsass]

It’s not just what’s expected of him, but there’s probability that has to factor in too. There is a plausible scenario where you go into training camp and Hendershot has clearly developed into the best TE on the roster. In that scenario, having year 1 be a learning year for Schoonmaker isn’t out of the question. Or alternate situations with Ferguson and Hendershot both playing wel out of the gate: last year the position only had 850 yards. Let’s say this year balloons to 1300. Even with that, it’s not unreasonable for Schoonmaker to be only ~300 of that.

Conversely, with Pollard’s injury situation, who are the guys who are going to outshine Vaughn in training camp? Do you plan on giving Ronald Jones 30 carries a game if TP isn’t ready to go? The rookie backfield will get opportunities out of necessity. There is no necessity to get Schoonmaker on the field if he’s not flashing in TC.

l
Ideally he'll be better than Ferguson & Hendershot. Unlikely, but they both did OK as rookies & somebody had their eye on Schoonmaker. Maybe he'll hit the field early.

 

[beware_d-ware]

• Mazi Smith - 400.5 snaps -- OVER. Gallimore got 403 snaps last year, and he was terrible. Watkins got 280 as a rotational NT. 400 total snaps sounds about right, but clearing that total shouldn't be hard if Mazi can play at all.
• Luke Schoonmaker - 350.5 yards -- OVER. What's that, 20 yards per game? 2 catches a week? That seems doable...
• Demarvion Overshown: 3.5 starts -- UNDER. He might get rotated in, but I doubt he starts a single game. Clark or Jabril probably get the official start in case of injury.
• Villiami Fehoko - 5.25 tackles for loss -- UNDER. Golston's actually become a pretty decent player, he will hog snaps in that 3T tweener role.
• Asim Richards - 2.5 starts -- UNDER. Edoga will start before Richards does.
• Eric Scott - 50.5 snaps (defense only) -- OVER. If the team doesn't re-sign Lewis, there are #4 CB snaps available. Scott could almost get to 50 in a single injury fill-in game.
• Deuce Vaughn- 0.5 TD’s -- UNDER. I don't think he makes the 53.
• Jalen Brooks - dressing 5.5 games -- UNDER. If push comes to shove, I think they'd sign a street vet over calling him up.
• Hunter Luepke - 4.5 weeks on the 53 man roster. -- OVER. I think he makes it on special teams pretty easily.

 

[morasp]

• Mazi Smith - 400.5 snaps OVER
• Luke Schoonmaker - 350.5 yards OVER
• Demarvion Overshown: 3.5 starts UNDER
• Villiami Fehoko - 5.25 tackles for loss UNDER
• Asim Richards - 2.5 starts UNDER
• Eric Scott - 50.5 snaps (defense only) UNDER
• Deuce Vaughn- 0.5 TD’s OVER 300 yards Receiving OVER 300 yards rushing OVER
• Jalen Brooks - dressing 5.5 games UNDER
• Hunter Luepke - 4.5 weeks on the 53 man roster OVER

I could see Vaughn with 600 yards from scrimmage.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

l
Ideally he'll be better than Ferguson & Hendershot. Unlikely, but they both did OK as rookies & somebody had their eye on Schoonmaker. Maybe he'll hit the field early.

Over time I agree, I just personally believe it’s really unrealistic to expect anything other than rotational participation for any rookie other than Olinemen or maybe WR/RB. If someone plays well like Micah did then that’s a bonus, but it’s not the norm, not by a long shot. That’s what makes Micah special.

Travis Kelce was under, Tony Gonzalez slightly over by 18 yards, Shannon Sharpe was an under for his first two seasons, Dallas Goedert an under, Jason Witten an under, Antonio Gates over by 39 yards, Hockenson over by 17 yards…

Ertz was 460, Gronk and Kittle 500. Those three are the historic, monster rookie seasons by TEs. It’s not a normal thing for a TE to come out crushing it.