Playoff considerations

[jobberone]

I posted this in another thread but it took so long to do it I thought I'd put it in a separate thread. I hope that's ok.

Washington has favorable schedule and they play no contenders for our WC berth. I’m counting Philly out of it so they should make the playoffs but they need to win out if they lose to NYG. Projected record no better than 11-5 although they could go 12-4. They are looking at 10-6 real easy cause I don't think they can beat NYG. Baltimore needs to win to stay in it so that's a hard game. Real hard for them as they stop the rush and without it Wash isn't much.

13 Sun, Nov 30 NY Giants

14 Sun, Dec 7 @ Baltimore

15 Sun, Dec 14 @ Cincinnati

16 Sun, Dec 21 Philadelphia

17 Sun, Dec 28 @ San Francisco


TB 8-3 2-1 D 7-2 C
TB has a very good defense and enough offense to be a pretender for a SB win. They have games with NO, Car, and Atl. SD needs to win and are in their range of good. Range 13-3 to 8-8. But there are three losses to distribute in the South which is a good thing.

13 Sun, Nov 30 New Orleans

14 Mon, Dec 8 @ Carolina

15 Sun, Dec 14 @ Atlanta

16 Sun, Dec 21 San Diego

17 Sun, Dec 28 Oakland

Carolina 8-3 2-2 D 5-3 C
Range 13-3 to 8-8. Losses to put on the South x2. One North opponent. I don't see but one team in the North getting in but only two WCs go. So a good team or two will sit out the dance this year. At least one from the South and one from the East most likely although all the East or South could go.

13 Sun, Nov 30 @ Green Bay

14 Mon, Dec 8 Tampa Bay

15 Sun, Dec 14 Denver

16 Sun, Dec 21 @ NY Giants

17 Sun, Dec 28 @ New Orleans


Atlanta 7-4 2-2 D 5-3 C
Two games in division. Three road games. They are 2-3 away from home with a road win in GB and the other Oakland. I expect two losses away and TB will beat them at home. That's 9-7 likely in my book but range is 12-4 to 7-9. Ryan is a great kid but he's a rookie and the pressure is now on big time. We'll see. Two South games and one North.

13 Sun, Nov 30 @ San Diego

14 Sun, Dec 7 @ New Orleans

15 Sun, Dec 14 Tampa Bay

16 Sun, Dec 21 @ Minnesota

17 Sun, Dec 28 St. Louis


NO 5-5 1-2 D 2-4 C
Three South games but two at home where they are 4-1. Tough team at home and still in it. Three North beating GB tomorrow night. 11-5 to 5-11. Shows you how important it is to finish strong don't it? I think they are perfect spoilers but they are in it. Still three losses each in the South and North to divvy out.

12 Mon, Nov 24 Green Bay

13 Sun, Nov 30 @ Tampa Bay

14 Sun, Dec 7 Atlanta

15 Thu, Dec 11 @ Chicago

16 Sun, Dec 21 @ Detroit

17 Sun, Dec 28 Carolina



Chicago
6-5 with Minny and GB at 5-5 so any of these guys could beat us out of a ticket to the dance. I'm too tired to get into these guys but they play eight games that affect us by playing contenders. Only the division winner is likely to go but they could also send two.

13 Sun, Nov 30 @ Minnesota

14 Sun, Dec 7 Jacksonville

15 Thu, Dec 11 New Orleans

16 Mon, Dec 22 Green Bay

17 Sun, Dec 28 @ Houston



Minnesota

13 Sun, Nov 30 Chicago

14 Sun, Dec 7 @ Detroit

15 Sun, Dec 14 @ Arizona

16 Sun, Dec 21 Atlanta

17 Sun, Dec 28 NY Giants


GB

12 Mon, Nov 24 @ New Orleans

13 Sun, Nov 30 Carolina

14 Sun, Dec 7 Houston

15 Sun, Dec 14 @ Jacksonville

16 Mon, Dec 22 @ Chicago

17 Sun, Dec 28 Detroit


Again we win out we're in. The slim odds against that happening isn't worth worrying about. And even at 11-5 we likely get in although the odds aren't insignificant that we could sit with that record. I doubt it and even 10-6 doesn't mean no dance for us.

If we want to win a SB then nows the time to declare we are the team to beat. Even losing to the Giants won't kill me if we play them tuff. My guess is they can't beat us three times in one year anyway.

I do think that we are likely to see them in the divisional round. I don't think the rules allow us to play them in the championship game. I'm not certain of that though.

 

[noletime95]

I posted this in another thread as well and figured I'd add my thoughts to this thread as well.

Remaining schedules are not in the Cowboys favor at all:

Washington: NYG, @ Balt, @ Cin, Phi, @ SF. I'd be suprised if Washington doesn't manage to go AT LEAST 10-6 with a very good shot at 11-5 (I think they manage to split the next two). The last three all look like W's at this point. I believe Washington will have the tiebreaker vs. Dallas. Even if Dalls catches Wash in Division, right now Wash. also has the better conference record.

Carolina: @ GB, TB, Den, @ NYG, @ NO. Although they have a game lead on Dallas, I kinda like the Boys chances of beating out Carolina. In fact, I like em better than the chances of beating out the Skins. Dallas has a good chance to win the tiebreak by virtue of a conf record (if Dallas loses to Pitt) or common oppenents. I think 11-5 is best case for the Panthers.

Atlanta: @SD, @ NO, TB, @ Min, STL. Right now, ATL has the tiebreak by virtue of conf record. Only way that changes is if Dallas loses to Pitt and ATL beats SD. Dallas likely would win the common oppenent battle if that happens.

Tampa: NO, @ CAR, @ ATL, SD, Oak: 11-5 or better IMO. Last two games will likely be W's. In a 2-way tie, Dallas gets the tie-break by virture of head to head. In a 3-way tie, TB currently has the better conference record. Not sure how that would work.

GB, CHI and Min are all still factors, but I highly doubt two of those teams end up 10-6 or better. And I think we all agree that Dallas will have to win at least 10 games to make the playoffs.

However, I believe it will take 11. I think ATL will manage to win 10 games and has a good chance to hold the tiebreak on Dallas. I think TB takes the South, nullifying the only tiebreak Dallas currently holds. I also think Washington wins at least 10 games and will hold the tiebreak on Dallas. Carolina would have to totally fall apart not to win 10 games and may well go 11-5 (as I suggested earlier, Dallas probably gets the tie-break over Carolina).

I don't think a team has ever missed the playoffs in the modern era at 11-5. However, plently have missed it going 10-6, including Cleveland last year. It's not going to be easy at all for Dallas. SEA, Balt and @ PHI are must wins. Then Dallas has to manage a split @ Pitt and NYG.

 

[jobberone]

Someone finished 11-5 in the last 10 years or so and didn't go. I think it was SD.

Atl has had trouble winning on the road which is understandable for a rookie. But the Falcons have a very good running game. That will keep them in games and they are starting to believe in themselves. I still think they fold but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[CanadianCowboysFan]

win and we are in, no ifs ands or buts about it.

 

[JordanTaber]

Mathematically, the Cowboys could win out and still not go to the playoffs at 12-4. Not very likely, but it's possible.

The Panthers are pretenders, though, so that's why it's highly unlikely. They won't make the playoffs. I foresee 9-7 for them...10-6 at best.

The Bucs will go 13-3 and win the South. I don't think anyone will beat them again this year.

 

[Beast_from_East]

We can afford only 1 more loss, thats it.

That means that we have to win all 3 remaining home games and spit our 2 road games, meaning we have to win either at Pitt or at Philly (neither is easy).

10-6 wont do it fellas, we lose almost any tiebreak formula because of that dam lose to the Cards. That would freaking suck, going 10-6 and sitting home come January.