Please tell me if my draft thoughts are crazy

Whyjerry

Whyjerry

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I am addicted to the draft simulators. I find that stuff fun. No idea why. It has helped me get a better handle on whose available and team needs. My strategy has been to trade down. I have targeted DT, G, TE and RB. For DT I am looking for guys that can be run stuffers. Later part of the draft I am grabbing a QB, LB and CB. O’Connell and Duggan seem to be available late so I usually grab them. For TE I prefer the project with a high ceiling like Washington. I do that because I like Ferguson so I am willing to swing for the fences with Washington. If I get sniped I grab LaPorta. I have grabbed Kancey a bunch. He isn’t the 1 tech I target but it’s a passing league and he is disruptive as heck. I double up with DTs if I do that and grab Pickens later. Avila is a guy I will grab but I usually target Stromberg. I am not a TB fam and I think Stromberg replaces him next year but is powerful enough to compete at G now. Bigsby or Evans are the guys I grab. If Charbonnet drops I grab him. I feel like I have this perfected and wonder the hell can go wrong for the Cowboys if they just grab those few guys they need this year.

Am I nuts for thinking this year is easy?
 
Whyjerry said:
I am addicted to the draft simulators. I find that stuff fun. No idea why. It has helped me get a better handle on whose available and team needs. My strategy has been to trade down. I have targeted DT, G, TE and RB. For DT I am looking for guys that can be run stuffers. Later part of the draft I am grabbing a QB, LB and CB. O’Connell and Duggan seem to be available late so I usually grab them. For TE I prefer the project with a high ceiling like Washington. I do that because I like Ferguson so I am willing to swing for the fences with Washington. If I get sniped I grab LaPorta. I have grabbed Kancey a bunch. He isn’t the 1 tech I target but it’s a passing league and he is disruptive as heck. I double up with DTs if I do that and grab Pickens later. Avila is a guy I will grab but I usually target Stromberg. I am not a TB fam and I think Stromberg replaces him next year but is powerful enough to compete at G now. Bigsby or Evans are the guys I grab. If Charbonnet drops I grab him. I feel like I have this perfected and wonder the hell can go wrong for the Cowboys if they just grab those few guys they need this year.

Am I nuts for thinking this year is easy?
Click to expand...
No, you are not nuts. This is an easy draft. Starting caliber RB's and TE's will be there in the 4th and 5th rounds. That gives you 3 rounds to grab players at higher end positions. I personally believe that you could end up with 5 starting players in this draft if you do it right. 6 if you include Kicker.

3 tech, 1 tech, LB, RB, TE, and K.
 
If you think where players are actually drafted are anywhere close to where the mock draft simulators are showing them being drafted then you are going to be waaaay off.

Those simulators are frequently off 2 or 3 rounds, if not more.

You can pick a guy in the 3rd round in the simulator when reality is they’re a top 15 pick.

Or vice-versa.
 
AsthmaField said:
If you think where players are actually drafted are anywhere close to where the mock draft simulators are showing them being drafted then you are going to be waaaay off.

Those simulators are frequently off 2 or 3 rounds, if not more.

You can pick a guy in the 3rd round in the simulator when reality is they’re a top 15 pick.

Or vice-versa.
Click to expand...
They aren’t perfect but they aren’t as bad as you are saying.
 
Use simulators just for entertainment purposes as they usually don't use accurate big boards. For example still seeing Mingo as a 4th rd prospect on several, but several insiders believe he gets drafted inside the top 60 if not sooner.
 
Whyjerry said:
I am addicted to the draft simulators. I find that stuff fun. No idea why. It has helped me get a better handle on whose available and team needs. My strategy has been to trade down. I have targeted DT, G, TE and RB. For DT I am looking for guys that can be run stuffers. Later part of the draft I am grabbing a QB, LB and CB. O’Connell and Duggan seem to be available late so I usually grab them. For TE I prefer the project with a high ceiling like Washington. I do that because I like Ferguson so I am willing to swing for the fences with Washington. If I get sniped I grab LaPorta. I have grabbed Kancey a bunch. He isn’t the 1 tech I target but it’s a passing league and he is disruptive as heck. I double up with DTs if I do that and grab Pickens later. Avila is a guy I will grab but I usually target Stromberg. I am not a TB fam and I think Stromberg replaces him next year but is powerful enough to compete at G now. Bigsby or Evans are the guys I grab. If Charbonnet drops I grab him. I feel like I have this perfected and wonder the hell can go wrong for the Cowboys if they just grab those few guys they need this year.

Am I nuts for thinking this year is easy?
Click to expand...
I get it...all in good fun!
:flagwave:

But, fwiw, Draft simulators are wildly unrealistic.

It's so bad that I ask every year that we have some sort of Draft subfolder that includes all the wild simulator mocks people post.
Instead, we have seemingly 100s of individuals on folk's personal sims, including wild trades, etc.
It's fun, but it's not realistic...at all.
 
Whyjerry said:
I am addicted to the draft simulators. I find that stuff fun. No idea why. It has helped me get a better handle on whose available and team needs. My strategy has been to trade down. I have targeted DT, G, TE and RB. For DT I am looking for guys that can be run stuffers. Later part of the draft I am grabbing a QB, LB and CB. O’Connell and Duggan seem to be available late so I usually grab them. For TE I prefer the project with a high ceiling like Washington. I do that because I like Ferguson so I am willing to swing for the fences with Washington. If I get sniped I grab LaPorta. I have grabbed Kancey a bunch. He isn’t the 1 tech I target but it’s a passing league and he is disruptive as heck. I double up with DTs if I do that and grab Pickens later. Avila is a guy I will grab but I usually target Stromberg. I am not a TB fam and I think Stromberg replaces him next year but is powerful enough to compete at G now. Bigsby or Evans are the guys I grab. If Charbonnet drops I grab him. I feel like I have this perfected and wonder the hell can go wrong for the Cowboys if they just grab those few guys they need this year.

Am I nuts for thinking this year is easy?
Click to expand...
The only thing you are "crazy" for is relying on draft sims to accurately assess who is availalbe when ...those things are wildly inaccurate. Otherwise, great thoughts.
 
Not crazy but probably not what will happen either. What simulator? I like to use a different Big board a lot of people like the beast but I usually just use NFL and see If I can draft players that are ranked high in later rounds. It's probably not accurate but it helps you get to know the different prospects.
 
I think the op is onto something and no your not crazy. I feel the best value is a trade back. UNLESS a guy unforeseen falls. I feel the TE thing is all a ruse. Here's why. Did you know we have visited with Flowers, Mingo, Hyatt at least 4 times each and worked them out several times? That tells me what we are thinking at 26. I think a trade back a few spots makes sense. Drafting a DE/TE/RB at 26 has never made sense. We might even trade out of the 1st altogether. This might be the draft to do that. Mikes job is on the line this year BIGLY. He will want a high octane passing game and running game. I feel the defense is fine except for some depth.
 
BermyStar said:
The only thing you are "crazy" for is relying on draft sims to accurately assess who is availalbe when ...those things are wildly inaccurate. Otherwise, great thoughts.
Click to expand...
Did I say they were the be all end all? I didn’t. I understand their shortcomings however it is still fun. I also think you guys are overstating their inaccuracies. They are not as bad as you say. The draft itself is difficult to predict. Mel Kiper has been doing it for decades and his record is spotty at best. The simulators are just another predictor with flaws.
 
Whyjerry said:
Did I say they were the be all end all? I didn’t. I understand their shortcomings however it is still fun. I also think you guys are overstating their inaccuracies. They are not as bad as you say. The draft itself is difficult to predict. Mel Kiper has been doing it for decades and his record is spotty at best. The simulators are just another predictor with flaws.
Click to expand...
Agreed, they are fun. I did a few over the years myself.
 
morasp said:
Not crazy but probably not what will happen either. What simulator? I like to use a different Big board a lot of people like the beast but I usually just use NFL and see If I can draft players that are ranked high in later rounds. It's probably not accurate but it helps you get to know the different prospects.
Click to expand...
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/

I am a nut with this thing. Sitting in an airport I bang out 10 drafts.
 
Cowboyny said:
Use simulators just for entertainment purposes as they usually don't use accurate big boards. For example still seeing Mingo as a 4th rd prospect on several, but several insiders believe he gets drafted inside the top 60 if not sooner.
Click to expand...
Opinions. All of them are just opinions. The simulators are just another opinion.
 
Killerinstinct said:
No, you are not nuts. This is an easy draft. Starting caliber RB's and TE's will be there in the 4th and 5th rounds. That gives you 3 rounds to grab players at higher end positions. I personally believe that you could end up with 5 starting players in this draft if you do it right. 6 if you include Kicker.

3 tech, 1 tech, LB, RB, TE, and K.
Click to expand...
Follow that plan with Mad Max in the 7th and I'm on board.
 
AsthmaField said:
If you think where players are actually drafted are anywhere close to where the mock draft simulators are showing them being drafted then you are going to be waaaay off.

Those simulators are frequently off 2 or 3 rounds, if not more.

You can pick a guy in the 3rd round in the simulator when reality is they’re a top 15 pick.

Or vice-versa.
Click to expand...
SO....your telling me that the draft I just did on PFN, that would fill majority of our weaknesses isn't likely to happen??? :grin: Come on man...I can dream can't I?

26. Bijan Robinson - RB
58. Steve Avila - LG
90. Sam LaPorta - TE
129. DeMarvion Overshown - LB
176. DTR - QB
212. Noah Ruggles - K
244. Keondre Coburn -NT
 
DasTex said:
SO....your telling me that the draft I just did on PFN, that would fill majority of our weaknesses isn't likely to happen??? :grin: Come on man...I can dream can't I?

26. Bijan Robinson - RB
58. Steve Avila - LG
90. Sam LaPorta - TE
129. DeMarvion Overshown - LB
176. DTR - QB
212. Noah Ruggles - K
244. Keondre Coburn -NT
Click to expand...
Lol, probably not.
 
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