Post Wk 16: QB Combined Statistical Ranking

DFWJC

DFWJC

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I'll again repeat the intro from previous weeks....
I have done this for the last few years.
It pretty much delivers the league MVP every year.

Don't get too worked up over this. Just data.

Combine and average the QBs' rank of the following two categories and tally.
  1. Differential: Total TDs (Passing/Rushing TDs ) - Total Turnovers ....This reduces bus-driving a little bit
  2. Standard NFL Passer Rating

This is where we stand after 16 weeks (15 games)
  1. Mahomes (MVP candidate, not tied at top anymore)
  2. Hurts (MVP candidate)
  3. Tagovailoa (possible MVP candidate?)
  4. Burrow (some now mentioning him in MVP talk)
  5. G Smith (career year, by far)
  6. Allen (caught up to the top 5, but outdoors in buffalo makes dec. games, uh, interesting)
  7. Goff (quietly having a strong year)
  8. Garoppolo ( out for the year)
  9. Cousins (also having a good year with only a couple of bad games)
  10. Lawrence (looking good)
  11. PRESCOTT (moving up a lot, as expected)
  12. Herbert (tied 12th )....12th thru 19th lumped together
  13. Fields (tied 12th)
  14. Jackson (tied 12th)
  15. Rodgers (historically low for him)
  16. Dalton (hard to believe, but there he is)
  17. Brady (T17th, historically low for him too)
  18. Tannehill (T17th)
  19. D Jones (T17th)
  20. Carr
  21. Mariotta (benched)
  22. Murray
  23. Brissett
  24. Heinike
  25. Wentz
  26. M Jones
  27. R Wilson (his worst season by far)
  28. Mayfield
  29. Mills
  30. Z Wilson
  31. Ryan
  32. Pickett


Players not included due to not of enough games played, etc:
Darnold (would be 12th), Purdy (would be 13th), White, Stafford, Rush, K Allen, Huntley, Rypien, Trubisky, Watson, McCoy.
Probably should drop Jimmy G in here now but he was so high (and had 10 games) I thought I'd leave him in

Here are the prior week's results
https://cowboyszone.com/threads/post-wk-15-qb-combined-statistical-ranking.504904/
 
Last edited:
817Gill

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DFWJC said:
I'll again repeat the intro from previous weeks....
I have done this for the last few years.
It pretty much delivers the league MVP every year.

Don't get too worked up over this. Just data.

Combine and average the QBs' rank of the following two categories and tally.
  1. Differential: Total TDs (Passing/Rushing TDs ) - Total Turnovers ....This reduces bus-driving a little bit
  2. Standard NFL Passer Rating

This is where we stand after 16 weeks (15 games)
  1. Mahomes (MVP candidate, not tied at top anymore)
  2. Hurts (MVP candidate)
  3. Tagovailoa (possible MVP candidate?)
  4. Burrow (some now mentioning him in MVP talk)
  5. G Smith (career year, by far)
  6. Allen (caught up to the top 5, but outdoors in buffalo makes dec. games, uh, interesting)
  7. Goff (quietly having a strong year)
  8. Garoppolo ( out for the year)
  9. Cousins (also having a good year with only a couple of bad games)
  10. Lawrence (looking good)
  11. PRESCOTT (moving up a lot, as expected)
  12. Herbert (tied 12th )....12th thru 19th lumped together
  13. Fields (tied 12th)
  14. Jackson (tied 12th)
  15. Rodgers (historically low for him)
  16. Dalton (hard to believe, but there he is)
  17. Brady (T17th, historically low for him too)
  18. Tannehill (T17th)
  19. D Jones (T17th)
  20. Carr
  21. Mariotta (benched)
  22. Murray
  23. Brissett
  24. Heinike
  25. Wentz
  26. M Jones
  27. R Wilson (his worst season by far)
  28. Mayfield
  29. Mills
  30. Z Wilson
  31. Ryan
  32. Pickett


Players not included due to not of enough games played, etc:
Darnold (would be 12th), Purdy (would be 13th), White, Stafford, Rush, K Allen, Huntley, Rypien, Trubisky, Watson, McCoy.
Probably should drop Jimmy G in here now but he was so high (and had 10 games) I thought I'd leave him in

Here are the prior week's results
https://cowboyszone.com/threads/post-wk-15-qb-combined-statistical-ranking.504904/
Click to expand...
Looks like Prescott should end the year in that 8-12 range which is commensurate with what most scouts and execs see him as.

Squarely a good franchise QB, not in that elite upper echelon. Good stuff.
 
DFWJC

DFWJC

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Current Playoff seeds

AFC
  1. Buffalo (Allen 6th...nipping at 5th)
  2. Kansas City (Mahomes 1st)
  3. Cincinnati (Burrow 4th..nipping at 3rd)
  4. Jacksonville (Lawrence 10th)...Jax record is worse than seed
  5. Baltimore (Jackson T-12th)
  6. LA Chargers (Herbert T-12th)
  7. Miami (Tua 3rd)
NFC
  1. Philadelphia (Hurts 2nd)
  2. Minnesota (Cousins 9th)
  3. San Franciso (JG was 8th, Purdy would now be 12th if played enough)
  4. Tampa Bay (Brady is T-17th)....Tampa's record is worse than seed
  5. Dallas (Prescott is 11th)
  6. NY Giants (D Jones T-17th
  7. Washington (both Wentz and Heinkie in 24-25 range)
 
Mr_437

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DFWJC said:
I'll again repeat the intro from previous weeks....
I have done this for the last few years.
It pretty much delivers the league MVP every year.

Don't get too worked up over this. Just data.

Combine and average the QBs' rank of the following two categories and tally.
  1. Differential: Total TDs (Passing/Rushing TDs ) - Total Turnovers ....This reduces bus-driving a little bit
  2. Standard NFL Passer Rating

This is where we stand after 16 weeks (15 games)
  1. Mahomes (MVP candidate, not tied at top anymore)
  2. Hurts (MVP candidate)
  3. Tagovailoa (possible MVP candidate?)
  4. Burrow (some now mentioning him in MVP talk)
  5. G Smith (career year, by far)
  6. Allen (caught up to the top 5, but outdoors in buffalo makes dec. games, uh, interesting)
  7. Goff (quietly having a strong year)
  8. Garoppolo ( out for the year)
  9. Cousins (also having a good year with only a couple of bad games)
  10. Lawrence (looking good)
  11. PRESCOTT (moving up a lot, as expected)
  12. Herbert (tied 12th )....12th thru 19th lumped together
  13. Fields (tied 12th)
  14. Jackson (tied 12th)
  15. Rodgers (historically low for him)
  16. Dalton (hard to believe, but there he is)
  17. Brady (T17th, historically low for him too)
  18. Tannehill (T17th)
  19. D Jones (T17th)
  20. Carr
  21. Mariotta (benched)
  22. Murray
  23. Brissett
  24. Heinike
  25. Wentz
  26. M Jones
  27. R Wilson (his worst season by far)
  28. Mayfield
  29. Mills
  30. Z Wilson
  31. Ryan
  32. Pickett


Players not included due to not of enough games played, etc:
Darnold (would be 12th), Purdy (would be 13th), White, Stafford, Rush, K Allen, Huntley, Rypien, Trubisky, Watson, McCoy.
Probably should drop Jimmy G in here now but he was so high (and had 10 games) I thought I'd leave him in

Here are the prior week's results
https://cowboyszone.com/threads/post-wk-15-qb-combined-statistical-ranking.504904/
Click to expand...
I'm looking at this list from a QBs the Cowboys would have to play against in the Playoffs perspective. Cowboys already beat the brakes off Cousins n Goff (if they make it). Probably won't see Geno Smith, but he's good. Hurts is a likely opponent and he's a problem, but at least the Cowboys are familiar with his game.

Wildcard game will be either Tom Brady or Sam Darnold. Brady is Brady, that's a tough game for the defense. Darnold is a bus driver who doesn't turn the ball over, but he's protected by a stellar run game and defense. Cowboys don't have an easy road, but the QB they'll play against aren't scary imho.
 
DFWJC

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If anyone is curious, here are 2022 so far Total TDs - Total Turnovers
Top 20
  1. Mahomes +30
  2. Hurts +28
  3. Burrow +25
  4. Allen +20
  5. Tua +16
  6. Cousins +16
  7. Goff +15
  8. G Smith + 15
  9. Lawrence +13
  10. Fields +13
  11. Garoppolo +12
  12. Brady +12
  13. Jackson +11
  14. Carr +10
  15. Prescott +9
  16. Herbert +9
  17. Rodgers +9
  18. D Jones +9
  19. Dalton +8
  20. Murray +8
This is 1/2 of the equation. Simple NFL Passer rating the other
 
john van brocklin

john van brocklin

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DFWJC said:
I'll again repeat the intro from previous weeks....
I have done this for the last few years.
It pretty much delivers the league MVP every year.

Don't get too worked up over this. Just data.

Combine and average the QBs' rank of the following two categories and tally.
  1. Differential: Total TDs (Passing/Rushing TDs ) - Total Turnovers ....This reduces bus-driving a little bit
  2. Standard NFL Passer Rating

This is where we stand after 16 weeks (15 games)
  1. Mahomes (MVP candidate, not tied at top anymore)
  2. Hurts (MVP candidate)
  3. Tagovailoa (possible MVP candidate?)
  4. Burrow (some now mentioning him in MVP talk)
  5. G Smith (career year, by far)
  6. Allen (caught up to the top 5, but outdoors in buffalo makes dec. games, uh, interesting)
  7. Goff (quietly having a strong year)
  8. Garoppolo ( out for the year)
  9. Cousins (also having a good year with only a couple of bad games)
  10. Lawrence (looking good)
  11. PRESCOTT (moving up a lot, as expected)
  12. Herbert (tied 12th )....12th thru 19th lumped together
  13. Fields (tied 12th)
  14. Jackson (tied 12th)
  15. Rodgers (historically low for him)
  16. Dalton (hard to believe, but there he is)
  17. Brady (T17th, historically low for him too)
  18. Tannehill (T17th)
  19. D Jones (T17th)
  20. Carr
  21. Mariotta (benched)
  22. Murray
  23. Brissett
  24. Heinike
  25. Wentz
  26. M Jones
  27. R Wilson (his worst season by far)
  28. Mayfield
  29. Mills
  30. Z Wilson
  31. Ryan
  32. Pickett


Players not included due to not of enough games played, etc:
Darnold (would be 12th), Purdy (would be 13th), White, Stafford, Rush, K Allen, Huntley, Rypien, Trubisky, Watson, McCoy.
Probably should drop Jimmy G in here now but he was so high (and had 10 games) I thought I'd leave him in

Here are the prior week's results
https://cowboyszone.com/threads/post-wk-15-qb-combined-statistical-ranking.504904/
Click to expand...
Dak moving on up
 
ConstantReboot

ConstantReboot

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DFWJC said:
I'll again repeat the intro from previous weeks....
I have done this for the last few years.
It pretty much delivers the league MVP every year.

Don't get too worked up over this. Just data.

Combine and average the QBs' rank of the following two categories and tally.
  1. Differential: Total TDs (Passing/Rushing TDs ) - Total Turnovers ....This reduces bus-driving a little bit
  2. Standard NFL Passer Rating

This is where we stand after 16 weeks (15 games)
  1. Mahomes (MVP candidate, not tied at top anymore)
  2. Hurts (MVP candidate)
  3. Tagovailoa (possible MVP candidate?)
  4. Burrow (some now mentioning him in MVP talk)
  5. G Smith (career year, by far)
  6. Allen (caught up to the top 5, but outdoors in buffalo makes dec. games, uh, interesting)
  7. Goff (quietly having a strong year)
  8. Garoppolo ( out for the year)
  9. Cousins (also having a good year with only a couple of bad games)
  10. Lawrence (looking good)
  11. PRESCOTT (moving up a lot, as expected)
  12. Herbert (tied 12th )....12th thru 19th lumped together
  13. Fields (tied 12th)
  14. Jackson (tied 12th)
  15. Rodgers (historically low for him)
  16. Dalton (hard to believe, but there he is)
  17. Brady (T17th, historically low for him too)
  18. Tannehill (T17th)
  19. D Jones (T17th)
  20. Carr
  21. Mariotta (benched)
  22. Murray
  23. Brissett
  24. Heinike
  25. Wentz
  26. M Jones
  27. R Wilson (his worst season by far)
  28. Mayfield
  29. Mills
  30. Z Wilson
  31. Ryan
  32. Pickett


Players not included due to not of enough games played, etc:
Darnold (would be 12th), Purdy (would be 13th), White, Stafford, Rush, K Allen, Huntley, Rypien, Trubisky, Watson, McCoy.
Probably should drop Jimmy G in here now but he was so high (and had 10 games) I thought I'd leave him in

Here are the prior week's results
https://cowboyszone.com/threads/post-wk-15-qb-combined-statistical-ranking.504904/
Click to expand...


I would put Dak at around #5 to #8. I'm leaning at #6 at the end of the year.
 
DFWJC

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To anyone interested...here is the current thought on metrics....

So What's the Best Metric?
Regardless of how the data is cut, no one metric stands out as a clear winner. Furthermore, the line between advanced stats like EPA, QBR, and PFF grades and simpler composites like Passer Rating, ANY/A, and QB Elo is surprisingly narrow, especially for Passer Rating, a 50 year old metric that predicts future margin of victory better than the machine learning driven EPA.

Ultimately, statistical measurement of QB play is a work in progress that requires understanding of context and an appreciation for uncertainty. If we want to know which QB is worthy of the MVP, we might want to consider EPA most heavily as it aligns closest to actual wins. If instead we want to know which QB is most likely to be successful in the future, we might consider PFF Grades, which do a better job at isolating individual play and predicting future success.

But perhaps above all else, we should avoid the temptation to dogmatically crown one metric over another. As for myself, I plan to use Passer Rating a bit more just to prove a point.
--------------------------------

I've been using this combo stat to help predict the MVP, but I wouldn't read too much into it than that
It's just all in good fun
 

cnuball21

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DFWJC said:
To anyone interested...here is the current thought on metrics....

So What's the Best Metric?
Regardless of how the data is cut, no one metric stands out as a clear winner. Furthermore, the line between advanced stats like EPA, QBR, and PFF grades and simpler composites like Passer Rating, ANY/A, and QB Elo is surprisingly narrow, especially for Passer Rating, a 50 year old metric that predicts future margin of victory better than the machine learning driven EPA.

Ultimately, statistical measurement of QB play is a work in progress that requires understanding of context and an appreciation for uncertainty. If we want to know which QB is worthy of the MVP, we might want to consider EPA most heavily as it aligns closest to actual wins. If instead we want to know which QB is most likely to be successful in the future, we might consider PFF Grades, which do a better job at isolating individual play and predicting future success.

But perhaps above all else, we should avoid the temptation to dogmatically crown one metric over another. As for myself, I plan to use Passer Rating a bit more just to prove a point.
--------------------------------

I've been using this combo stat to help predict the MVP, but I wouldn't read too much into it than that
It's just all in good fun
Click to expand...

I don’t think it’s fair to use just one stat in evaluation as it can be a bit skewed.I think it’s important to combine multiple stats / metrics together.

Fortunately for us Dak is top 10 in just about every stat out there.
 
DFWJC

DFWJC

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I never understood folks who go on threads just to proclaim they aren't interested in the thread.
Call it "drivel" or whatever.

It's like living in a city and having a road that you never have any reason to go on, one that in your mind has the worst traffic and potholes......yet you go out of your way to go there just so you can complain about it.

:lmao:

It's doesn't get more childish than that.
 
DFWJC

DFWJC

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If we projected his 5 games over a full season, Brock Purdy would be 4th or 5th in this ranking.
:omg:
I know you can't project like that because players can fall off a cliff (or get red-hot) during stretches of a long season.
But just saying.... that's the level he is playing at right now.
 
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