Alexander
What's it going to be then, eh?
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This is from a Sportrac article that projects the value of certain FAs that I have seen people hoping for:
Lamar Miller, MIACalculated: 4 years, $20M ($5M AAV)
Likely: 4 years $18M ($4.5M AAV)
After an 1100+ yard/8 TD campaign in 2014, Miller fell out of favor a bit in Miami by the end of the 2015 season. It’s likely he hits the open market, with potential to be a legitimate RB1. He’ll be 25 years old in a few months, and has shown he has a nose for the end zone AND can hold on to the football well. He matches up well with Mark Ingram (NO, $4M), and Ryan Mathews (PHI, $3.6M), so a rising cap mixed with a bit more consistency should warrant Miller a $4M+ AAV this offseason. View the calculated projection here.
Chris Ivory, NYJCalculated: 3 years, $12.3M ($4.1M AAV)
Likely: 3 years $12M ($4M AAV)
Ivory was an integral part of the Jets improved offense in 2015, posting the first 1,000 yard season of his career. He’s set to hit the free agent market at 27, and should find a few multi-year offers should the Jets decide to go in a different direction. He matches up well with Mark Ingram, who scored a 4 year $16M deal in New Orleans last year. View the calculated projection here.
Alshon Jeffery,CHI
Calculated: 5 years, $64M ($12.8 AAV)
Likely: 4 years $44M ($11M AAV)
Jeffery showed flashes of elite WR1 over his past four years in Chicago. Unfortunately he also showed inconsistency and a bit of injury proneness. Factor that in to a Bears offense that fell off in the past two seasons, and he’s entering his first free agent market on a bit of a downturn. He’s still arguably the best available free agent WR, and it’s likely the Bears make a big push to keep him. A $12.8M AAV would rank 7th among WRs, right behind T.Y. Hilton’s recent contract. View the calculated projection here.
Mo Wilkerson, NYJ
Calculated: 5 years, $65.6M ($13.1M AAV)
Likely: 5 years, $60M ($12M AAV)
Wilkerson put together a great pair of back to back seasons to end out his rookie campaign with the Jets, so he’s entering the need for a new contract at an extremely high point. New York will no doubt offer a franchise tag next month to buy themselves time to hammer out a long-term deal, but the Jets’ 2016 cap issues will make it difficult to hold leverage, as the franchise tag and his current market value sit around the $13M mark. The highest paid 3/4 defensive end is Mike Daniels (GB) at $10.25M, so Wilkerson is in line to soar past that. A long term deal with a lower cap in 2016 would benefit the Jets. View the calculated projection here.
Malik Jackson, DEN
Calculated: 5 years, $52.5M ($10.5MM AAV)
Likely: 4 years, $40M ($10M AAV)
With battery-mate Derek Wolfe already signed to his extension ($9M AAV), it’s possible Jackson is allowed to hit the open market. He falls into the 2nd tier of 3/4 defensive ends statistically, so a contract nearing $10M per year is likely. View the calculated projection here.
Greg Hardy, DAL
Calculated: 4 years $34.2M ($8.55M AAV)
Likely: 2 years, $10M ($5M AAV, + incentives)
Hardy had a solid finish to the season in Dallas after serving his suspension. He earned a little over $3M after incentives in 2015, posting 6 sacks and 23 tackles for the Cowboys. He’ll be 28 by the time training camp starts, and should draw interest from plenty of teams – which could drive his price up to/past his calculated market values ($8.5M), but it’s more likely that another low base, high incentive deal is locked in based on his past. View the calculated projection here.
Danny Trevathan, DENCalculated: 6 years $36M ($6M AAV)
Likely: 6 years $36M ($6M AAV)
After an injury-filled 2014 kept him out of the fold, Trevathan supplanted himself as a solid piece in the middle of a great Broncos’ defense this year. With plenty of notable pending free agents on the board, Denver has tough decisions, and letting Trevathan test the market may be one of them. A weak ILB market could bump his market value up near $8M based on his age (25) and production this season. View the calculated projection here.
Josh Norman, CARCalculated: 5 years, $69.3M ($13.8M AAV)
Likely: Franchise tag, then 5 years, $70M ($14M AAV)
Norman exploded onto the scene in 2015 and has lived up to nearly every challenge placed in front of him. He’s flashy, he’s athletic, and can both put up numbers AND fall back into shut-down mode. He’s also 28 years old, so there’s a bit of a red flag when discussing the monster contract he’s certainly lining up for. All said, he’s calculating just shy of $14M per year, a number Patrick Peterson, Richard Sherman, and Darrelle Revis are currently playing on. He’ll be right there when it’s all said and done. View the calculated projection here.
Eric Berry, KCCalculated: 5 years, $41.2M ($8.2M)
Likely: 5 years, $45M ($9M)
Berry has been both an emotional leader, and an on-field general for a strong Chiefs’ defense. His impact when he’s in the lineup is unparalleled, and all signs point to Kansas City keeping him in the fold. His battle with lymphoma has kept his snaps/production low, so from a calculated standpoint he projects at just over $8M per year. But with the franchise tag estimated at $10M for safeties in 2016, logic points his likely AAV closer to the $9M mark. View the calculated projection here.
Eric Weddle, SDCalculated: 2 years $13.8M ($6.9M AAV)
Likely: 4 years, $28M ($7M AAV)
Much like running backs, safeties simply aren’t commanding the dollars they once did. And those over 30 are annual candidates to be roster cuts/cap casualties. Weddle has an opportunity to buck the trend a bit, with back to back outstanding seasons in San Diego to begin his 30’s. Weddle has likely played his last game in San Diego, and while a high annual average salary isn’t likely, multiple offers on the open market should reward him with a longer term deal, guarantees front-loaded of course. View the calculated projection here.
http://www.spotrac.com/blog/calcula...tial-nfl-free-agents-or-extension-candidates/
Lamar Miller, MIACalculated: 4 years, $20M ($5M AAV)
Likely: 4 years $18M ($4.5M AAV)
After an 1100+ yard/8 TD campaign in 2014, Miller fell out of favor a bit in Miami by the end of the 2015 season. It’s likely he hits the open market, with potential to be a legitimate RB1. He’ll be 25 years old in a few months, and has shown he has a nose for the end zone AND can hold on to the football well. He matches up well with Mark Ingram (NO, $4M), and Ryan Mathews (PHI, $3.6M), so a rising cap mixed with a bit more consistency should warrant Miller a $4M+ AAV this offseason. View the calculated projection here.
Chris Ivory, NYJCalculated: 3 years, $12.3M ($4.1M AAV)
Likely: 3 years $12M ($4M AAV)
Ivory was an integral part of the Jets improved offense in 2015, posting the first 1,000 yard season of his career. He’s set to hit the free agent market at 27, and should find a few multi-year offers should the Jets decide to go in a different direction. He matches up well with Mark Ingram, who scored a 4 year $16M deal in New Orleans last year. View the calculated projection here.
Alshon Jeffery,CHI
Calculated: 5 years, $64M ($12.8 AAV)
Likely: 4 years $44M ($11M AAV)
Jeffery showed flashes of elite WR1 over his past four years in Chicago. Unfortunately he also showed inconsistency and a bit of injury proneness. Factor that in to a Bears offense that fell off in the past two seasons, and he’s entering his first free agent market on a bit of a downturn. He’s still arguably the best available free agent WR, and it’s likely the Bears make a big push to keep him. A $12.8M AAV would rank 7th among WRs, right behind T.Y. Hilton’s recent contract. View the calculated projection here.
Mo Wilkerson, NYJ
Calculated: 5 years, $65.6M ($13.1M AAV)
Likely: 5 years, $60M ($12M AAV)
Wilkerson put together a great pair of back to back seasons to end out his rookie campaign with the Jets, so he’s entering the need for a new contract at an extremely high point. New York will no doubt offer a franchise tag next month to buy themselves time to hammer out a long-term deal, but the Jets’ 2016 cap issues will make it difficult to hold leverage, as the franchise tag and his current market value sit around the $13M mark. The highest paid 3/4 defensive end is Mike Daniels (GB) at $10.25M, so Wilkerson is in line to soar past that. A long term deal with a lower cap in 2016 would benefit the Jets. View the calculated projection here.
Malik Jackson, DEN
Calculated: 5 years, $52.5M ($10.5MM AAV)
Likely: 4 years, $40M ($10M AAV)
With battery-mate Derek Wolfe already signed to his extension ($9M AAV), it’s possible Jackson is allowed to hit the open market. He falls into the 2nd tier of 3/4 defensive ends statistically, so a contract nearing $10M per year is likely. View the calculated projection here.
Greg Hardy, DAL
Calculated: 4 years $34.2M ($8.55M AAV)
Likely: 2 years, $10M ($5M AAV, + incentives)
Hardy had a solid finish to the season in Dallas after serving his suspension. He earned a little over $3M after incentives in 2015, posting 6 sacks and 23 tackles for the Cowboys. He’ll be 28 by the time training camp starts, and should draw interest from plenty of teams – which could drive his price up to/past his calculated market values ($8.5M), but it’s more likely that another low base, high incentive deal is locked in based on his past. View the calculated projection here.
Danny Trevathan, DENCalculated: 6 years $36M ($6M AAV)
Likely: 6 years $36M ($6M AAV)
After an injury-filled 2014 kept him out of the fold, Trevathan supplanted himself as a solid piece in the middle of a great Broncos’ defense this year. With plenty of notable pending free agents on the board, Denver has tough decisions, and letting Trevathan test the market may be one of them. A weak ILB market could bump his market value up near $8M based on his age (25) and production this season. View the calculated projection here.
Josh Norman, CARCalculated: 5 years, $69.3M ($13.8M AAV)
Likely: Franchise tag, then 5 years, $70M ($14M AAV)
Norman exploded onto the scene in 2015 and has lived up to nearly every challenge placed in front of him. He’s flashy, he’s athletic, and can both put up numbers AND fall back into shut-down mode. He’s also 28 years old, so there’s a bit of a red flag when discussing the monster contract he’s certainly lining up for. All said, he’s calculating just shy of $14M per year, a number Patrick Peterson, Richard Sherman, and Darrelle Revis are currently playing on. He’ll be right there when it’s all said and done. View the calculated projection here.
Eric Berry, KCCalculated: 5 years, $41.2M ($8.2M)
Likely: 5 years, $45M ($9M)
Berry has been both an emotional leader, and an on-field general for a strong Chiefs’ defense. His impact when he’s in the lineup is unparalleled, and all signs point to Kansas City keeping him in the fold. His battle with lymphoma has kept his snaps/production low, so from a calculated standpoint he projects at just over $8M per year. But with the franchise tag estimated at $10M for safeties in 2016, logic points his likely AAV closer to the $9M mark. View the calculated projection here.
Eric Weddle, SDCalculated: 2 years $13.8M ($6.9M AAV)
Likely: 4 years, $28M ($7M AAV)
Much like running backs, safeties simply aren’t commanding the dollars they once did. And those over 30 are annual candidates to be roster cuts/cap casualties. Weddle has an opportunity to buck the trend a bit, with back to back outstanding seasons in San Diego to begin his 30’s. Weddle has likely played his last game in San Diego, and while a high annual average salary isn’t likely, multiple offers on the open market should reward him with a longer term deal, guarantees front-loaded of course. View the calculated projection here.
http://www.spotrac.com/blog/calcula...tial-nfl-free-agents-or-extension-candidates/
