CFZ Predictions of NFL off-season winners: How accurate over recent years?

[Bobhaze]

Happens every year in the off-season. After the free agency period, the draft, OTAs and some mini-camps, the predictions by NFL writers and talking heads start- “Which NFL teams won the off-season?”

Now we all know off-seasons are very important. What a team does with their roster does matter a ton. But not all offseason predictions of the winners and losers are accurate.

So I wanted to look back at previous NFL off-season “winners” and compare how well they did in the actual season results.

• Here are some recent off-season winners as declared by several media outlets:
  • 2019 Cleveland Browns- because they added star WR Odell Beckham, Jr to pair with QB Baker Mayfield and also added 3 technique DL Sheldon Richardson, the brownies were declared huge off-season winners. They finished 6-10 and out of the playoffs.
  • 2021 NY Jets- the jets won the 2021 off-season trophy because they made QB Zach Wilson their quarterback of the future with the No. 2 overall pick. They traded prior QB hero Sam Darnold to help them select Wilson. They also drafted guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, wideout Elijah Moore and running back Michael Carter. Toss in notable free-agent additions like Corey Davis and Tevin Coleman and they were declared big off-season winners. They finished 4-13. Zach Wilson was traded this off-season.
  • 2022 LA Chargers- with rising star QB Justin Herbert still on his rookie deal, the chargers had an active off-season by extending Mike Williams, acquiring LB Khalil Mack, S Derwin James. The chargers did go 10-7 and make the playoff as a wild card but lost in the wild card round.
  • 2023 Baltimore Ravens- the ravens finally signed their QB Lamar Jackson, and needing to upgrade their receiver, signed OBJ (I don’t understand why this is always considered a great signing), drafted WR Zay Flowers, and also signed stone hands FA WR Nelson Agolor. It was a good off-season because the ravens did finish 13-4 and won the #1 seed in the AFC. They lost to eventual champ chiefs in the AFC championship game.

Like most fans here I have been very disappointed in the front office’s off-season approach. I cannot say we are even as good (On paper) as we were last year. Yes, we have all seen the Cowboys head the list of teams who are considered off-season losers in 2024. Maybe the examples above from the last 5 seasons will remind us as Cowboys fans that “winning the off-season“ may not be as good as the pundits say.

 

[CTcowboy203]

How many of those teams were coming off multiple playoff seasons in a row ? Let alone 12 win seasons. It’s not just the inactivity, it’s the context of which the inactivity comes. We’ve seen the team as is- not be good enough. Close, maybe not as close we hope for and likely not as far as some think either but in the hunt and needing some needed supplements at certain positions but having very important positions adequately filled but not getting said help at positions of need.

Then when you combine that with the fact that they’ve been virtually inactive on impact players via free agency since Brandon Carr, that’s where the frustration sets in. I won’t even bring up the lack of post season success in detail. Winning the offseason is one thing, actively sitting it out is another story completely.

 

[Coogiguy03]

Right it would be extremely funny if we actually went further in the playoffs than we've been in years going this route. Jerry and Stephen would be so proud of themselves

 

[Bobhaze]

How many of those teams were coming off multiple playoff seasons in a row ? Let alone 12 win seasons. It’s not just the inactivity, it’s the context of which the inactivity comes. We’ve seen the team as is- not be good enough. Close, maybe not as close we hope for and likely not as far as some think either but in the hunt and needing some needed supplements at certain positions but having very important positions adequately filled but not getting said help at positions of need.

Then when you combine that with the fact that they’ve been virtually inactive on impact players via free agency since Brandon Carr, that’s where the frustration sets in. I won’t even bring up the lack of post season success in detail. Winning the offseason is one thing, actively sitting it out is another story completely.

Don’t disagree with you. This has been the weirdest off-season I can remember. It’s really hard to fully understand what this FO is doing. I know there are dozens of “experts” on our forum who think it’s crystal clear. But to me it’s not.

 

[Bobhaze]

Right it would be extremely funny if we actually went further in the playoffs than we've been in years going this route. Jerry and Stephen would be so proud of themselves

And so completely blind squirrel lucky!

 

[JBS]

Right it would be extremely funny if we actually went further in the playoffs than we've been in years going this route. Jerry and Stephen would be so proud of themselves

The same route we’ve taken every other year?

 

[Reality]

Happens every year in the off-season. After the free agency period, the draft, OTAs and some mini-camps, the predictions by NFL writers and talking heads start- “Which NFL teams won the off-season?”

Now we all know off-seasons are very important. What a team does with their roster does matter a ton. But not all offseason predictions of the winners and losers are accurate.

So I wanted to look back at previous NFL off-season “winners” and compare how well they did in the actual season results.

• Here are some recent off-season winners as declared by several media outlets:
  
  • 2019 Cleveland Browns- because they added star WR Odell Beckham, Jr to pair with QB Baker Mayfield and also added 3 technique DL Sheldon Richardson, the brownies were declared huge off-season winners. They finished 6-10 and out of the playoffs.
  • 2021 NY Jets- the jets won the 2021 off-season trophy because they made QB Zach Wilson their quarterback of the future with the No. 2 overall pick. They traded prior QB hero Sam Darnold to help them select Wilson. They also drafted guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, wideout Elijah Moore and running back Michael Carter. Toss in notable free-agent additions like Corey Davis and Tevin Coleman and they were declared big off-season winners. They finished 4-13. Zach Wilson was traded this off-season.
  • 2022 LA Chargers- with rising star QB Justin Herbert still on his rookie deal, the chargers had an active off-season by extending Mike Williams, acquiring LB Khalil Mack, S Derwin James. The chargers did go 10-7 and make the playoff as a wild card but lost in the wild card round.
  • 2023 Baltimore Ravens- the ravens finally signed their QB Lamar Jackson, and needing to upgrade their receiver, signed OBJ (I don’t understand why this is always considered a great signing), drafted WR Zay Flowers, and also signed stone hands FA WR Nelson Agolor. It was a good off-season because the ravens did finish 13-4 and won the #1 seed in the AFC. They lost to eventual champ chiefs in the AFC championship game.

Like most fans here I have been very disappointed in the front office’s off-season approach. I cannot say we are even as good (On paper) as we were last year. Yes, we have all seen the Cowboys head the list of teams who are considered off-season losers in 2024. Maybe the examples above from the last 5 seasons will remind us as Cowboys fans that “winning the off-season“ may not be as good as the pundits say.

For me it is less about the big name signings and more about net losses during the off-season.

The Cowboys lost their starting left tackle, center, middle linebacker, cornerback, running back and third receiver along with several defensive players.

I am not saying those were players they should have kept, because I have no issues with any of those players leaving.

My concern (and probably that of many other fans) is that they did little to replace them through free agency and the players they drafted have "potential", but have yet to prove themselves worthy of starting, much less replacing any of those players.

That is on top of Diggs coming back off a torn ACL, which takes 12 months to return to play and 18 months to return to previous playing form.

Now, as a Cowboys fan, it would be fine to me if they combined the lack of action with a real rebuild process.

However, if all they are doing is resetting the salary cap to pay 3 players 40% or more of the salary cap for the next several years then this was not only a wasted season but also a waste of the next several seasons.

 

[Bobhaze]

For me it is less about the big name signings and more about net losses during the off-season.

The Cowboys lost their starting left tackle, center, middle linebacker, cornerback, running back and third receiver along with several defensive players.

I am not saying those were players they should have kept, because I have no issues with any of those players leaving.

My concern (and probably that of many other fans) is that they did little to replace them through free agency and the players they drafted have "potential", but have yet to prove themselves worthy of starting, much less replacing any of those players.

That is on top of Diggs coming back off a torn ACL, which takes 12 months to return to play and 18 months to return to previous playing form.

Now, as a Cowboys fan, it would be fine to me if they combined the lack of action with a real rebuild process.

However, if all they are doing is resetting the salary cap to pay 3 players 40% or more of the salary cap for the next several years then this was not only a wasted season but also a waste of the next several seasons.

Agree 100%.

I would add this - while I always want to win big every year, having an occasional intentional rebuild is good for a franchise that has a lot of cap space dedicated to a few players who collectively have won an occasional wild card game.

Put it even simpler - Keeping guys who have won championships is different than slotting almost half of your cap space on guys that haven’t really accomplished all that much. I would actually at this point feel better about a rebuild than a reload on the same guys.

 

[GMO415]

Bullet!

 

[Creeper]

Interesting question but like the draft, off seasons are a crap shoot. To me it is all about trying to do something to improve. Sitting still is going backwards.

The Cowboys are thin almost everywhere except surprisingly maybe OL. They have 3 CBs they can count on. An injury there could hurt. They have no depth on the DL, LB, WR, or RB. They probably have more depth at TE and S. But you know how it goes. When the injuries come it will be at positions where they can least afford them.

 

[Diehardblues]

For me it is less about the big name signings and more about net losses during the off-season.

The Cowboys lost their starting left tackle, center, middle linebacker, cornerback, running back and third receiver along with several defensive players.

I am not saying those were players they should have kept, because I have no issues with any of those players leaving.

My concern (and probably that of many other fans) is that they did little to replace them through free agency and the players they drafted have "potential", but have yet to prove themselves worthy of starting, much less replacing any of those players.

That is on top of Diggs coming back off a torn ACL, which takes 12 months to return to play and 18 months to return to previous playing form.

Now, as a Cowboys fan, it would be fine to me if they combined the lack of action with a real rebuild process.

However, if all they are doing is resetting the salary cap to pay 3 players 40% or more of the salary cap for the next several years then this was not only a wasted season but also a waste of the next several seasons.

Well said.. no doubt with all of the releases in off-season this isn’t as talented team as last year.

Will that translate into the results this season. Most likely but there is a glimmer of hope our new draft and developments of prior drafts will fill the holes.

 

[Diehardblues]

Agree 100%.

I would add this - while I always want to win big every year, having an occasional intentional rebuild is good for a franchise that has a lot of cap space dedicated to a few players who collectively have won an occasional wild card game.

Put it even simpler - Keeping guys who have won championships is different than slotting almost half of your cap space on guys that haven’t really accomplished all that much. I would actually at this point feel better about a rebuild than a reload on the same guys.

There’s something to be said for retaining star players which helped you reach the brink even if you come up short. And then continuing to add to them.

It all comes down to how close we think we are. And unfortunately the only opinion that ultimately matters sit in the skybox.

 

[Diehardblues]

I have little confidence our FO can totally rebuild. I’d argue they are better suited to retool. Which means retaining as many of their key stars as possible.

I understand and feel the frustration many fans don’t believe this team is worth of holding together. And despite its lack of more or deeper playoff success, it is still a playoff contender. One that has generally ranked in top 4 in the conference. Which would probably support not a need for a rebuild and more retooling.

I’d also add that we haven’t retained everyone. We let go several starters who didn’t feel warranted extended contracts. As a matter of fact I don’t recall when in recent years we released or didn’t resign this many starters? Especially from a consistent playoff team.

 

[Diehardblues]

Don’t disagree with you. This has been the weirdest off-season I can remember. It’s really hard to fully understand what this FO is doing. I know there are dozens of “experts” on our forum who think it’s crystal clear. But to me it’s not.

I think some fans just misconstrued what “ all in” meant to our ownership.

 

[Diehardblues]

How many of those teams were coming off multiple playoff seasons in a row ? Let alone 12 win seasons. It’s not just the inactivity, it’s the context of which the inactivity comes. We’ve seen the team as is- not be good enough. Close, maybe not as close we hope for and likely not as far as some think either but in the hunt and needing some needed supplements at certain positions but having very important positions adequately filled but not getting said help at positions of need.

Then when you combine that with the fact that they’ve been virtually inactive on impact players via free agency since Brandon Carr, that’s where the frustration sets in. I won’t even bring up the lack of post season success in detail. Winning the offseason is one thing, actively sitting it out is another story completely.

Yea but I dont think our ownership thought they had much Cap space to maneuver for a major signing .

And they didn’t want to pull the trigger too soon setting the Market Price so it left them with little wiggle room. That’s assuming there was any key stars they wanted to pursue.

I’d like to hear some of these big names fans wanted us to pursue. I don’t think they wanted to commit to an aging star RB which I get. Who else were we thinking ?

I also believe they are hoping they have some of the answers currently on the roster from previous drafts. Maybe they work out maybe they don’t but Id argue we have to see if prior top draft picks can make it.

If drafting is indeed our strength in building then we must have some faith these picks have developed enough and ready to earn starting roles and make an impact. If they don’t and are bust then we can hold our FO accountable.

 

[shabazz]

Happens every year in the off-season. After the free agency period, the draft, OTAs and some mini-camps, the predictions by NFL writers and talking heads start- “Which NFL teams won the off-season?”

Now we all know off-seasons are very important. What a team does with their roster does matter a ton. But not all offseason predictions of the winners and losers are accurate.

So I wanted to look back at previous NFL off-season “winners” and compare how well they did in the actual season results.

• Here are some recent off-season winners as declared by several media outlets:
  • 2019 Cleveland Browns- because they added star WR Odell Beckham, Jr to pair with QB Baker Mayfield and also added 3 technique DL Sheldon Richardson, the brownies were declared huge off-season winners. They finished 6-10 and out of the playoffs.
  • 2021 NY Jets- the jets won the 2021 off-season trophy because they made QB Zach Wilson their quarterback of the future with the No. 2 overall pick. They traded prior QB hero Sam Darnold to help them select Wilson. They also drafted guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, wideout Elijah Moore and running back Michael Carter. Toss in notable free-agent additions like Corey Davis and Tevin Coleman and they were declared big off-season winners. They finished 4-13. Zach Wilson was traded this off-season.
  • 2022 LA Chargers- with rising star QB Justin Herbert still on his rookie deal, the chargers had an active off-season by extending Mike Williams, acquiring LB Khalil Mack, S Derwin James. The chargers did go 10-7 and make the playoff as a wild card but lost in the wild card round.
  • 2023 Baltimore Ravens- the ravens finally signed their QB Lamar Jackson, and needing to upgrade their receiver, signed OBJ (I don’t understand why this is always considered a great signing), drafted WR Zay Flowers, and also signed stone hands FA WR Nelson Agolor. It was a good off-season because the ravens did finish 13-4 and won the #1 seed in the AFC. They lost to eventual champ chiefs in the AFC championship game.

Like most fans here I have been very disappointed in the front office’s off-season approach. I cannot say we are even as good (On paper) as we were last year. Yes, we have all seen the Cowboys head the list of teams who are considered off-season losers in 2024. Maybe the examples above from the last 5 seasons will remind us as Cowboys fans that “winning the off-season“ may not be as good as the pundits say.

Nice research on this subject but I've gotta say that the Ravens rushing the ball 6 times with their RBs the entire game against the Chiefs may have something to do with their demise.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

Anything’s better than losing the offseason.

 

[Diehardblues]

There’s nothing worse than the season over by Thanksgiving.

There’s no guarantee a total rebuild can take place. I’d argue with our ownership even more challenging.

I understand the frustration in the playoffs but I’d argue what’s worse than coming up short in the playoffs, not making the playoffs.

 

[JustChip]

Happens every year in the off-season. After the free agency period, the draft, OTAs and some mini-camps, the predictions by NFL writers and talking heads start- “Which NFL teams won the off-season?”

Now we all know off-seasons are very important. What a team does with their roster does matter a ton. But not all offseason predictions of the winners and losers are accurate.

So I wanted to look back at previous NFL off-season “winners” and compare how well they did in the actual season results.

• Here are some recent off-season winners as declared by several media outlets:
  • 2019 Cleveland Browns- because they added star WR Odell Beckham, Jr to pair with QB Baker Mayfield and also added 3 technique DL Sheldon Richardson, the brownies were declared huge off-season winners. They finished 6-10 and out of the playoffs.
  • 2021 NY Jets- the jets won the 2021 off-season trophy because they made QB Zach Wilson their quarterback of the future with the No. 2 overall pick. They traded prior QB hero Sam Darnold to help them select Wilson. They also drafted guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, wideout Elijah Moore and running back Michael Carter. Toss in notable free-agent additions like Corey Davis and Tevin Coleman and they were declared big off-season winners. They finished 4-13. Zach Wilson was traded this off-season.
  • 2022 LA Chargers- with rising star QB Justin Herbert still on his rookie deal, the chargers had an active off-season by extending Mike Williams, acquiring LB Khalil Mack, S Derwin James. The chargers did go 10-7 and make the playoff as a wild card but lost in the wild card round.
  • 2023 Baltimore Ravens- the ravens finally signed their QB Lamar Jackson, and needing to upgrade their receiver, signed OBJ (I don’t understand why this is always considered a great signing), drafted WR Zay Flowers, and also signed stone hands FA WR Nelson Agolor. It was a good off-season because the ravens did finish 13-4 and won the #1 seed in the AFC. They lost to eventual champ chiefs in the AFC championship game.

Like most fans here I have been very disappointed in the front office’s off-season approach. I cannot say we are even as good (On paper) as we were last year. Yes, we have all seen the Cowboys head the list of teams who are considered off-season losers in 2024. Maybe the examples above from the last 5 seasons will remind us as Cowboys fans that “winning the off-season“ may not be as good as the pundits say.

True. But as great a factor as anything in success and failure is luck.

Fortune on the injury front is huge. Last year’s Jets were preseason darlings and that all crashed on their 4th offensive play of the regular season. Is KC a playoff team if Mahomes goes down for the year on their 4th play from scrimmage.

Fortune on the scheduling front. Is a team playing an opponent that’s peaking or struggling at that particular time. Same for your team. Dallas certainly was not prepared to play at the required level against Green Bay, but don’t discount that the Greenies were peaking at that time. They had a real chance to beat SF the next week, and probably should’ve.

Fortune in unforced errors by the other team. Dallas doesn’t beat Detroit, nor does San Fran probably, if Dan Campbell doesn’t go totally braindead.

Finally, officiating fortune. The Rams aren’t in the SB with Goff were it not for the most egregious officiating call/non-call I can remember in my lifetime.

 

[dreameaglegreen]

I think the more relevant factor would be, who spends the least in free agency, and how those teams fair over the years.
Found this interesting, but would like to see a little bigger timeline.