Salaries (QB) exploding is predictable

[Reid1boys]

So with Goff getting his deal tgere is much discussion how this is nuts. No way should Dak get more than 53 million per. Hell, one person in the Dak thread says Dak should be happy with 41 million per, even though 4 years ago he signed for 40 million per.

So lets look at why this is happening. I travel from Ca for every game I go to. I have been attending, regularly, Cowboys games all over the country for about 16 years now. Let me give you a little insight into ticket prices and what the NFL is seeing and doing.

I have been traveling to Dallas for the season opener for every season since the last at the old Texas Stadium in 2008. The secondary ticket market has made it possible to go to ANY game you want to go to.Tickets on the secondary market have about doubled during that time.I remember sitting lower level like 10 rows back in the endzone for 225 dollars about 7 years ago. Those seats today are probably 600 bucks. My wife has gotten us comped tickets at the 15 yard line about 10 rows back for a couple of games and those tickets were going for about 1500 bucks on stub hub. The secondary market has played a huge role in the resulting rising season ticket prices.

Nfl revenues in 2008 were somewhere around 7.6 Billion. The cap was 116 million. Revenues in 2023 was just under 12 BILLION. The cap is 255.4 million.

The NFL was clearly watching the secondary market and they had enough. Why allow others to buy season tickets for low prices just to sell them at double or more of face value. As a result, the league has been rising prices for season tickets consistently.

Ratings have been through the roof and resulted in huge TV deals.

SO, saying this contract, this player, r that position are not worth the amount being paid... no, they are worth exactly what they are getting paid.

It is simple to see.... the cap is a direct relation to the amount of money the league is generating. The QB position is reaping the benefits the most, followed by, VERY PREDICTABLY, the position most directly connected to the QB......, the WR.

Then on defense, who is cashing in? Those that can get to the QB, and those that cover the WRs the best.

So all of the armchair GMs sitting back and saying how dumb all of those that actually eat, breath and live this stuff 24 hrs a day, 365 days a year.... just take a step back and see the reality of the NFL world we live in.

 

[Diehardblues]

Yep, the Salary Cap increasing every year( this year about 10%) has a direct correlation to Market Price increasing. It’s just the nature of business in the NFL.

Now the argument in whether any player is worth 50 mil is definitely an understandable position. But the money is there . Why shouldn’t they be able to negotiate if the market allows it.

In a pass happy league which has been a product of new rules protecting the QB and receivers has increased the interest from casual, fringe and especially fantasy fans.

The NFL is more than ever a league in which you must have a QB to build around. Basically two types of teams. One with a Franchise QB and others looking for one.

Franchise QB’s aren’t necessarily Elite which there are usually only a handful at any given time. The greater the Franchise QB the easier to build around.

But with the value so high on Franchise QB’s in the NFL their value has increased as well . Much like WR’s, Edge rushers and CB’s all directly related to the passing game.

I understand football purist aren’t pleased with how the league has evolved this era but this is the reality . And to the leagues credit it has increased viewership and revenue. The NFL has become entertainment sports at the highest level.

 

[bewp7]

yes ur right

wich is why i do not under stand jerry and stephen and dak

if u think a qb is the guy there is ZERO benefit to wait and drag ur feet like they did with dak TWICE now and if u queston it at all then u need to let them walk and try until u find the guy because paying franchise qb money to a qb who is not a franchise qb hurt u bad

 

[Diehardblues]

yes ur right

wich is why i do not under stand jerry and stephen and dak

if u think a qb is the guy there is ZERO benefit to wait and drag ur feet like they did with dak TWICE now and if u queston it at all then u need to let them walk and try until u find the guy because paying franchise qb money to a qb who is not a franchise qb hurt u bad

While id agree dragging their feet last time no doubt cost them , I’d argue waiting until some of these other QB’s this season like Goff, Lawrence and Tua most likely to come could actually be beneficial not to have pulled the trigger first.

Let’s see where the Market Price falls setting a baseline for negotiations . I’d don’t often prop up our dysfunctional ownership but this might be a smarter maneuver than last time . It also plays more favorably into public perception holding out with so much negativity after last seasons playoff debacle.

We must get a deal done before season begins if we truly intend on retaining him. Otherwise next year in FA the price will certainly go up costing us again. My hunch is if we don’t get a deal done by the beginning of season this is it for Dak in Dallas.

 

[shabazz]

The market sets the price.....but the teams still have to pick the right pieces.

DeShaun Watson is an example of the wrong piece.......he merely benefited from the market.

 

[fivetwos]

Dak Prescott is getting a contract that pays him around 55-60 million per season.

That will either be here or somewhere else, but it’s happening.

 

[Reid1boys]

Yep, the Salary Cap increasing every year( this year about 10%) has a direct correlation to Market Price increasing. It’s just the nature of business in the NFL.

Now the argument in whether any player is worth 50 mil is definitely an understandable position. But the money is there . Why shouldn’t they be able to negotiate if the market allows it.

In a pass happy league which has been a product of new rules protecting the QB and receivers has increased the interest from casual, fringe and especially fantasy fans.

The NFL is more than ever a league in which you must have a QB to build around. Basically two types of teams. One with a Franchise QB and others looking for one.

Franchise QB’s aren’t necessarily Elite which there are usually only a handful at any given time. The greater the Franchise QB the easier to build around.

But with the value so high on Franchise QB’s in the NFL their value has increased as well . Much like WR’s, Edge rushers and CB’s all directly related to the passing game.

I understand football purist aren’t pleased with how the league has evolved this era but this is the reality . And to the leagues credit it has increased viewership and revenue. The NFL has become entertainment sports at the highest level.

Well I guess that ELITE would mean only about 4 QBs. if one tries to argue there are 10 elite QBs, then Id say the definition of Elite needs to be changed.

You hit the nail on the head with how the game has changed. Go back and look at Bob Griese's stats in the season the Dolphins went unbeaten. Well hell, Ill do it. Griese passed for 88,73 and 134 yards in his 3 Super Bowls. That is unfathomable in the game today and almost laughable to think any qb could actually throw for those yards in the modern Super Bowl.

 

[lkelly]

I think some of the angst stems from the fact that teams with QBs on their rookie deals have such a vastly different cap allocation at the QB position. CJ Stroud has a cap number that goes from $6.6M to $11.5M over the 4 years of his deal. Brock Purdy, bless his heart, had/has a cap hit of $725K to $1.1M over the first 4 years. I don't think those rookie deal parameters are increasing at the same rate as top of the market deals, so a widening imbalance is created and fans notice. An additional complication is the occasional trend of top QBs taking less than top of the market deals. Brady is the poster child for this, certainly driven by his intense desire to win (with the competitive advantage that extra cap room brings about) along with a spouse, at the time, who was worth a fortune. Mahomes signed a long term, team friendly deal much like Tyron Smith did way back when. It's not an accident that the Pats (with Brady), the Chiefs (with Mahomes on a rookie deal or a team friendly long term deal), and the 49ers (a few plays away from a couple super bowls and recent playoff success with bargain basement Purdy) have dominated the postseason headlines of late. The Eagles and Bengals also made super bowls with rookie contract QBs.

Above average QBs making top 5 money is a bad situation to be in. You really have to nail the other positions with shrewd contracts and rookie hits to compensate. You're not only competing with teams mentioned above but also teams that have better QBs (the Allens, Burrows, Jacksons, etc.) even though they might also be paying top deals.

In the grand scheme of NFL economics, the price might be the price and that's fine for the agents and players. It doesn't make for a competitive edge, however.

 

[Reid1boys]

yes ur right

wich is why i do not under stand jerry and stephen and dak

if u think a qb is the guy there is ZERO benefit to wait and drag ur feet like they did with dak TWICE now and if u queston it at all then u need to let them walk and try until u find the guy because paying franchise qb money to a qb who is not a franchise qb hurt u bad

I discussed what I think they are doing last week. They do not want to pay 60 million per season at this time. If Dak has a repeat of last year and gets booted with another bad playoff game, I still think they will sign him, but it wont be for 60 million, and Dak wont get anyone else to give him 60 million either.

If Dak plays like he did last year and they make the title game or better, they will gladly pay 60 million. IMO, its a win , win for the Cowboys. No matter what Dak does next year, he is getting 55 million from the Cowboys.... well, unless he had the worst season of his career, but there is no reason to think Dak doesnt come close to last year, and 36 TDs against 9 INTs is going to get him at least 55 million.

 

[Reid1boys]

While id agree dragging their feet last time no doubt cost them , I’d argue waiting until some of these other QB’s this season like Goff, Lawrence and Tua most likely to come could actually be beneficial not to have pulled the trigger first.

Let’s see where the Market Price falls setting a baseline for negotiations . I’d don’t often prop up our dysfunctional ownership but this might be a smarter maneuver than last time . It also plays more favorably into public perception holding out with so much negativity after last seasons playoff debacle.

We must get a deal done before season begins if we truly intend on retaining him. Otherwise next year in FA the price will certainly go up costing us again. My hunch is if we don’t get a deal done by the beginning of season this is it for Dak in Dallas.

I agree with all you said except the last paragraph. I think they are both willing to wait until the end of the season and then decided on the price. I dont think its Dak's intention to leave Dallas unless they totally try to screw him over, and Jerry has never lowballed any player that he wanted to keep... EVER.

Can you think of a single player that we let walk just due to money? Gregory left us, but the deal was basically the same as what Denver offered and it was due to a perceived slight and contract language.

 

[Reid1boys]

I think some of the angst stems from the fact that teams with QBs on their rookie deals have such a vastly different cap allocation at the QB position. CJ Stroud has a cap number that goes from $6.6M to $11.5M over the 4 years of his deal. Brock Purdy, bless his heart, had/has a cap hit of $725K to $1.1M over the first 4 years. I don't think those rookie deal parameters are increasing at the same rate as top of the market deals, so a widening imbalance is created and fans notice. An additional complication is the occasional trend of top QBs taking less than top of the market deals. Brady is the poster child for this, certainly driven by his intense desire to win (with the competitive advantage that extra cap room brings about) along with a spouse, at the time, who was worth a fortune. Mahomes signed a long term, team friendly deal much like Tyron Smith did way back when. It's not an accident that the Pats (with Brady), the Chiefs (with Mahomes on a rookie deal or a team friendly long term deal), and the 49ers (a few plays away from a couple super bowls and recent playoff success with bargain basement Purdy) have dominated the postseason headlines of late. The Eagles and Bengals also made super bowls with rookie contract QBs.

Above average QBs making top 5 money is a bad situation to be in. You really have to nail the other positions with shrewd contracts and rookie hits to compensate. You're not only competing with teams mentioned above but also teams that have better QBs (the Allens, Burrows, Jacksons, etc.) even though they might also be paying top deals.

In the grand scheme of NFL economics, the price might be the price and that's fine for the agents and players. It doesn't make for a competitive edge, however.

It is obvious as can be it helps to have a QB playing at Joe Burrow's level on a rookie deal. But I didnt see the Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, Bills or about to be 49ers say.... well wed rather keep our QB on a rookie deal, so see ya to their QB and start over again. When you strike gold at the qb position, you get one shot at it. If it were as simple as saying we dont want aQB making that much, so we will keep a QB on their first deal as our starter, everyone would do it. And 90% of the teams would draft their next HOF qb and end up getting Marcus Marriota and Kyler Murray's of the world.

 

[Coogiguy03]

If you look at the real money Goff's deal is a 4 year 170 million deal so it's really 40+ million right???

 

[Killerinstinct]

If you look at the real money Goff's deal is a 4 year 170 million deal so it's really 40+ million right???

No. That is what he is guaranteed. If he plays all 4 years he will receive the full amount.

 

[Reid1boys]

No. That is what he is guaranteed. If he plays all 4 years he will receive the full amount.

and when is the last time a guy his age that signed a big deal was cut prior to the deal expiring?

 

[Kwyn]

If you look at the real money Goff's deal is a 4 year 170 million deal so it's really 40+ million right???

Not really. Most of that extra money is just standard injury related non-guaranteed money. If he doesn’t have a career ending injury he’ll get it.

There are also some multi million dollar roster bonuses that obviously get paid every year unless he’s cut.

 

[Diehardblues]

I agree with all you said except the last paragraph. I think they are both willing to wait until the end of the season and then decided on the price. I dont think its Dak's intention to leave Dallas unless they totally try to screw him over, and Jerry has never lowballed any player that he wanted to keep... EVER.

Can you think of a single player that we let walk just due to money? Gregory left us, but the deal was basically the same as what Denver offered and it was due to a perceived slight and contract language.

Murray for sure. Ware comes to mind. Witten also left at end.

 

[Reid1boys]

Murray for sure. Ware comes to mind. Witten also left at end.

and all 3 of those guys had past their prime. Murray had a million carries the year before and they had decided they werent keeping him because he was old and gonna cost. They let him walk, not because of money, but because they viewed him as worn out and old.

Ware, not totally washed, but definitely too old to justify paying big bucks. Witten was done.


All three were let go, not because of money. Had Ware and Whitten been 26, they would have been signed.

 

[Diehardblues]

and all 3 of those guys had past their prime. Murray had a million carries the year before and they had decided they werent keeping him because he was old and gonna cost. They let him walk, not because of money, but because they viewed him as worn out and old.

Ware, not totally washed, but definitely too old to justify paying big bucks. Witten was done.


All three were let go, not because of money. Had Ware and Whitten been 26, they would have been signed.

Sure, Murray was purely a Cap move.

He led league in rushing his final season of Rookie contract. Cowboys didn’t want to pay top dollar for a RB.

They thought their OL was great enough to have a RB by committee. They ended up using 1st round pick following season in 2016 for Elliott.

 

[blueblood70]

yes ur right

wich is why i do not under stand jerry and stephen and dak

if u think a qb is the guy there is ZERO benefit to wait and drag ur feet like they did with dak TWICE now and if u queston it at all then u need to let them walk and try until u find the guy because paying franchise qb money to a qb who is not a franchise qb hurt u bad

look as much as that seems to make sense to you it works differently when you own a $10 billion team with a salary cap and have to figure out how to dole out the money and whether it's worth keeping someone even if you feel they're franchise guy This is why other teams are going around and getting a guy like deshaun Watson and way overpaying both with draft picks at least we do not have to spend draft picks but the league is desperate for top quarterbacks but they're also have to keep in mind of trying to build a team around 1:00 so they have to be short...

Case in point, why would the lions pay Jared Goff that kind of money after the Rams thought he wasn't worth keeping?????​

ohh but some now he's worth keeping and yet Matthew Stafford got the new a Super Bowl and people are saying that Jared Goff if he was kept one more year may have also did it but one team thought he wasn't.. the next team says he is ,

I mean This is why you think it's no blueprint you have to decide do you want to spend that kind of percentage of your cap on a guy whether you thinking he is a franchise guy and we all know Prescott is a franchise guy but now he's been here 8 years he's going on year 9 will it be worth keeping him will he get us to a Super Bowl????

Jerry has to think about that before he pays out who cares if it costs us an extra few $1,000,000, there are a lot of teams that use the franchise tag, to transition tag, and the 5th year options,

not just Jerry what you don't think jamar chase and Justin Jefferson are not franchise wide receivers?? then why didn't they immediately just sign them?? hell why didn't they sign them last year as soon as they were eligible??

because that is not how businesses are ran in the NFL ,it literally has a cap, it has roster limits, you have to think about it you have to figure out how to stagger contracts and how to build the contract in a way to where all the other guys coming down the pike and in our case it was Trayvon diggs and now it's lamb and Parsons and it could be other guys soon they have to take all that into account that means they have to think about it yes I'm sorry but we're talking about billions..

This isn't balancing your checkbook buddy, this is a little bit different they have to take everything into account and look at the big picture and even though they trust Prescott they have to wonder could they rebuild versus keep him and trade assets and start over..

other teams have done that they literally have let their big time quarterbacks go or you have Kansas City trading away hill why should we cheap CD Lamb if teams have gotten rid of the Adams they've gotten rid of tyreke hill, DeAndre Hopkins, just to name a few ohh yeah yeah the Eagles they wouldn't be with A.J. Brown had the Titans decided not to pay a guy who now looks like he should have they should have kept him... I mean why in the world would you let a guy like amari Cooper go seems like a good starting number one well apparently the Raiders and Cowboys thought he wasn't worth keeping but now the Browns feel like they should I mean this is just the way business is done in the NFL you have to decide who you want to keep and who you don't it has nothing to do with their talent it has everything to do with the big picture of the salary cap.. And you can't just think about today you have to think about five years from now...

Has nothing to do with whether they're a franchise guy or not and whether you have confidence it is about the big picture of the business side of the NFL they have to take their time sometimes to figure out who they want to keep how much they want to pay them how they're going to structure the contract etc etc etc

 

[Reid1boys]

look as much as that seems to make sense to you it works differently when you own a $10 billion team with a salary cap and have to figure out how to dole out the money and whether it's worth keeping someone even if you feel they're franchise guy This is why other teams are going around and getting a guy like deshaun Watson and way overpaying both with draft picks at least we do not have to spend draft picks but the league is desperate for top quarterbacks but they're also have to keep in mind of trying to build a team around 1:00 so they have to be short...

Case in point, why would the lions pay Jared Goff that kind of money after the Rams thought he wasn't worth keeping?????​

ohh but some now he's worth keeping and yet Matthew Stafford got the new a Super Bowl and people are saying that Jared Goff if he was kept one more year may have also did it but one team thought he wasn't.. the next team says he is ,

I mean This is why you think it's no blueprint you have to decide do you want to spend that kind of percentage of your cap on a guy whether you thinking he is a franchise guy and we all know Prescott is a franchise guy but now he's been here 8 years he's going on year 9 will it be worth keeping him will he get us to a Super Bowl????

Jerry has to think about that before he pays out who cares if it costs us an extra few $1,000,000, there are a lot of teams that use the franchise tag, to transition tag, and the 5th year options,

not just Jerry what you don't think jamar chase and Justin Jefferson are not franchise wide receivers?? then why didn't they immediately just sign them?? hell why didn't they sign them last year as soon as they were eligible??

Bingo. Why hasnt Jefferson signed yet? Do you really think the Vikings are having second thoughts about Jefferson? Chase is clearly going to be kept by the Bengals. Why dont they extend him today?